COVID-19

[Weave]

5 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I have no doubt that we will be shut down like we were in March.

Ok, doctors, here's a question.  We shut down for six or eight weeks or something, and then we opened back up with a lot of restrictions.  We did just fine under the restrictions for a considerable period of time, and now we need the restrictions again.  What actually changed to cause the rise in cases?  We were observing the restrictions.  If they worked in June, July, August, September, why didn't they work in October and November?  There is only one material difference that I can think of:  the weather.

Seems to me that viruses affect more people in colder weather.  I do not offer this as scientific fact; it is just my experience.  If that is the case, should we just be riding out the weather rather than shutting down again?  I.e., are we actually gaining anything by shutting down?

Not a rhetorical question.

Not a doctor.  Didn't stay in a Holiday Inn last night.  My expectation is that it is indirectly, not directly, related to weather.  Cold weather breeds close proximity and recycled indoor air, and that is the meaningful change that is contributing to the resurgence.

Edited November 23, 2020 by Weave

[Wyldnwoody44]

This is so multifactorial, weather definitley brings the bugs and we could be dealing with confections with one of the other viruses, including influenza, immune systems react to changes in temperature as well. Some may say that the restrictions were loosened and that this the cause, testing more is part of it. 

At the end of the day, the virus was going to make its rounds and those that didn't get it yet are now surging in a 2nd spike and dependant on a vaccine there will probably be a bit weaker 3rd spike in early spring. 

I'll try and do a little more research into coronaviruses in general and try to be more precise, but I don't think there is going to be one easy answer to that question. 

 

[miles]

23 hours ago, dudacek said:

My wife had her results back in less than 24 hours. (negative)

I got mine back already too. It ended up being just over 24 hours. I was negative too. I had about 10 seconds of my heart racing while i entered my birthday and phone 

 

Just heard from my mom that my sister has to quarantine because her stepdaughter was working with someone who tested positive. They are getting tests tomorrow 

 

 

 

I saw this old chevy luv pickup on Ebay with a camper top and camping mattress bed in the back. I tried to convince my wife to let me get it so we can quit our jobs and just live in the back of the truck away from the rest of the world . She called me an idiot and that was the end of the discussion 

Edited November 24, 2020 by miles

[SwampD]

46 minutes ago, miles said:

I got mine back already too. It ended up being just over 24 hours. I was negative too. I had about 10 seconds of my heart racing while i entered my birthday and phone 

 

Just heard from my mom that my sister has to quarantine because her stepdaughter was working with someone who tested positive. They are getting tests tomorrow 

 

 

 

I saw this old chevy luv pickup on Ebay with a camper top and camping mattress bed in the back. I tried to convince my wife to let me get it so we can quit our jobs and just live in the back of the truck away from the rest of the world . She called me an idiot and that was the end of the discussion 

So, you're buying it, then?

[Wyldnwoody44]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

So, you're buying it, then?

Let's go halves on it, we can snuggle, ill be big spoon 

[WildCard]

Saw CNN said we might hit 20M+ cases by January. Isn't that herd immunity levels?

[Curt]

34 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Saw CNN said we might hit 20M+ cases by January. Isn't that herd immunity levels?

That’s less than 6% of the US population.  Definitely not herd immunity levels.  Granted there are probably a lot of undiagnosed cases, but still.

Doesn’t herd immunity start to come into play at levels closer to like 30-50%?  

Edited November 24, 2020 by Curt

[Eleven]

Erie County now has the rapid test--one hour for a result.  (716) 858-2929.  Time slots fill up very quickly so if you need a test, call at precisely 8am when the phone line opens.

[LGR4GM]

36 minutes ago, Curt said:

That’s less than 6% of the US population.  Definitely not herd immunity levels.  Granted there are probably a lot of undiagnosed cases, but still.

Doesn’t herd immunity start to come into play at levels closer to like 30-50%?  

50 would be a minimum considering how easily this disease spreads and we might need 70-90% to really call it done. Multiple companies having successful vaccines is good. We now just need those vaccines to be provided free of charge. 

[Zamboni]

Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 50% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity. No country is anywhere near those numbers. US population is 330 million. Canada population 38 million.

[North Buffalo]

15 hours ago, Eleven said:

I have no doubt that we will be shut down like we were in March.

Ok, doctors, here's a question.  We shut down for six or eight weeks or something, and then we opened back up with a lot of restrictions.  We did just fine under the restrictions for a considerable period of time, and now we need the restrictions again.  What actually changed to cause the rise in cases?  We were observing the restrictions.  If they worked in June, July, August, September, why didn't they work in October and November?  There is only one material difference that I can think of:  the weather.

Seems to me that viruses affect more people in colder weather.  I do not offer this as scientific fact; it is just my experience.  If that is the case, should we just be riding out the weather rather than shutting down again?  I.e., are we actually gaining anything by shutting down?

Not a rhetorical question.

Agree with Wyld many factors... indoors, cold, protests on both sides, ignoring safety protocols with increased numbers of people brought together especially indoors... people came back home from vacation areas that were spread out... 

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 50% to 90% of a population needs immunity to achieve herd immunity. No country is anywhere near those numbers. US population is 330 million. Canada population 38 million.

Of course, it should be noted that no one really has any idea what percentage of the US population has had the virus already.

[Wyldnwoody44]

A small study, sent to me by my medical director showed that immunity could last years. While it's not something that I'd buy into 100% on such a small study. Over and over bigger studies are showing that immunity is lasting several months with hints that it's into the year or so range. 

[Stoner]

25 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Of course, it should be noted that no one really has any idea what percentage of the US population has had the virus already.

Experts have experted but WTF do they know.

Also Sweden says hello (with a dry cough).

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Experts have experted but WTF do they know.

Also Sweden says hello (with a dry cough).

Epidemiological models are pretty good at tracking this stuff, the issue is they have been ignored for months. 

1 hour ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

A small study, sent to me by my medical director showed that immunity could last years. While it's not something that I'd buy into 100% on such a small study. Over and over bigger studies are showing that immunity is lasting several months with hints that it's into the year or so range. 

I am guessing this was with the 2 dose course of a vaccine. It makes sense. 

[Wyldnwoody44]

35 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Epidemiological models are pretty good at tracking this stuff, the issue is they have been ignored for months. 

I am guessing this was with the 2 dose course of a vaccine. It makes sense. 

Yes for whatever reason this vaccine is a 2 dose one, maybe in the next year or 2 they can get it down to a one dose, not sure why it's 2 dose right now, but I haven't looked into the biomechanics of it much yet 

[WildCard]

4 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

Yes for whatever reason this vaccine is a 2 dose one, maybe in the next year or 2 they can get it down to a one dose, not sure why it's 2 dose right now, but I haven't looked into the biomechanics of it much yet 

Probably due to the new way they're doing it (mRNA)

[kas23]

Just as I predicted (and sent some people into a state of surprise), healthcare workers will not be given preference when it comes to vaccination. Director of CDC has stated nursing home residents will be given the vaccine first, followed by a combination of people at high risk for mortality (obesity, diabetes, etc) and a select number of healthcare providers. I read this as hospital administrators. Yes, this is backwards considering nursing homes can isolate. I can’t isolate from patients coming to me because they are sick. 
 

Fortunately, it’s not going to up to him, but rather individual state governments. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by kas23

[Wyldnwoody44]

5 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Just as I predicted (and sent some people into a state of surprise), healthcare workers will not be given preference when it comes to vaccination. Director of CDC has stated nursing home residents will be given the vaccine first, followed by a combination of people at high risk for mortality (obesity, diabetes, etc) and a select number of healthcare providers. I read this as hospital administrators. Yes, this is backwards considering nursing homes can isolate. I can’t isolate from patients coming to me because they are sick. 

Really nails home all those "thank you heroes" and first care responders blah blah blah, etc signs. Words are nice, but it's all fluff 

[Stoner]

21 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

Really nails home all those "thank you heroes" and first care responders blah blah blah, etc signs. Words are nice, but it's all fluff 

Appreciation should have nothing to do with it.

[Stoner]

29 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Just as I predicted (and sent some people into a state of surprise), healthcare workers will not be given preference when it comes to vaccination. Director of CDC has stated nursing home residents will be given the vaccine first, followed by a combination of people at high risk for mortality (obesity, diabetes, etc) and a select number of healthcare providers. I read this as hospital administrators. Yes, this is backwards considering nursing homes can isolate. I can’t isolate from patients coming to me because they are sick. 
 

Fortunately, it’s not going to up to him, but rather individual state governments. 

Folks in LTCFs can't isolate.

[kas23]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Folks in LTCFs can't isolate.

Once it’s in the facility, yes, they have a big problem. That said, people in LTCFs should be having very limited interaction with the public. They basically shouldn’t be leaving the property. Now, there are people who can bring the virus in. This is why they have barred visitation for the most part. I do agree that LTCF workers should be vaccinated, as these are probably where the outbreaks originate. 
 

Another reason they probably shouldn’t be vaccinated is the availability of casirivimab, imdevimab, and bamlanivimab. These are the now FDA approved monoclonal blocking antibodies that convey passive immunity. Why this? Because the elderly usually have poorer immune responses towards vaccines. Any case of Covid pops up in a LTCF? They all get treated prophylactically and fire is put out. My $0.02 of course. 

[kas23]

2 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

Appreciation should have nothing to do with it.

Agreed. What should rule this decision is simple. Do you have direct contact with confirmed positive cases on a daily or weekly basis? And if you contracted Covid, would you be able to quarantine without a detriment to society? But, no, the government wants to work in the world of hypotheticals. Well, what if this population contracts Covid?

 

Also, keep in mind, many hospitals across the country are telling their nursing staff to continue to work if Covid positive and asymptomatic. This is how bad things are. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by kas23

[Wyldnwoody44]

I had to send a patient to the city last week for simple dialysis because 50%+ of the dialysis nurses are out due to Covid, we simply couldn't handle it in the small area. So, with that being said, hospital workers should 100% get vaccinations as long as they remain proven and relatively low harm. But common sense died somewhere in 1950 I think. 

[Weave]

Holy crap!  My county blew up today.  Positive tests in the last 24 hrs exceed the entire month of April.