COVID-19

[SABRES 0311]

On 3/11/2020 at 7:39 PM, Derrico said:

No it’s only the flu guys.  It’s only an American political issue.  Who here got the flu shot???

I got it. Not by choice. But still got it.

[WildCard]

On 3/11/2020 at 10:39 PM, Derrico said:

No it’s only the flu guys.  It’s only an American political issue.  Who here got the flu shot???

Get a free vaccine against a virus that kills tens of thousands a year?

I get it every year.

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, SABRES 0311 said:

I got it. Not by choice. But still got it.

??

[nfreeman]

5 hours ago, PASabreFan said:

We don't believe in experts anymore. We know better. People who know more can't possibly be making the right decisions.

Well, I think it's important to remember that even among experts -- doctors, epidemiologists, and other scientists -- there is a pretty wide range of opinion as to how best to handle the virus.

[Eleven]

29 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I think it's important to remember that even among experts -- doctors, epidemiologists, and other scientists -- there is a pretty wide range of opinion as to how best to handle the virus.

We avoided Orange because of YOU.  

Geez.

[JohnC]

32 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I think it's important to remember that even among experts -- doctors, epidemiologists, and other scientists -- there is a pretty wide range of opinion as to how best to handle the virus.

There is an overwhelming consensus within the experts in the field as to how to best handle the virus. The basics such as wearing a mask, social distancing, washing hands, quarantining the infected etc are the standard approaches all over the world promoted by the experts. When political influences intrude into the public health sphere you have a less than effective response to this deadly virus. 

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

There is an overwhelming consensus within the experts in the field as to how to best handle the virus. The basics such as wearing a mask, social distancing, washing hands, quarantining the infected etc are the standard approaches all over the world promoted by the experts. When political influences intrude into the public health sphere you have a less than effective response to this deadly virus. 

Please remove panties from wringer.

I didn't mention those items, and I'm not referring to "political influences". 

I'm referring to lockdowns, school closures, how to weigh consequences, including health consequences, like depression, substance abuse, alcoholism, delay or loss of other needed health care, economic loss, job loss, family breakups, etc, against the virus' immediate health consequences, whether approaches like Sweden's are better than approaches like the UK's, and other important issues relating to handling the virus.

None of these has been settled by anything remotely resembling an "overwhelming consensus."

 

[SwampD]

My wife talked to one of her friends who's husband is a healthcare worker in Bergen county. During the summer, when things were really bad here, she said that sometimes he would come home, sit at the kitchen table, and just start sobbing.

She also said that he said the numbers they are seeing are starting to look like that again.

I know enough people who have been effected by this to hope that anyone who is flip about it, is because where they live hasn't been (and hopefully won't be) affected.

Edited November 20, 2020 by SwampD

[miles]

My wifes company has another case. Tbey had an outbreak at the beginning of the pandemic and 2 people  died.

They made people wfh for 3 months and made everyone come back. Now today they said there is another case and everyone needs to get a test before monday and they are going to have the office closed for at least 1 week to see how the tests come back.

I have already asked my wife to just quit and we will live poor until she finds something new. Her greedy boss is putting hundreds of lives at risk for no reason. they can successfully wfh but he insists everyone be in the office. 

I already told my wife if she comes back positive that i want to send him all medical bills

 

There should be restrictions for this crap where the owners of companies should be responsible for this negligence 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Please remove panties from wringer.

I didn't mention those items, and I'm not referring to "political influences". 

I'm referring to lockdowns, school closures, how to weigh consequences, including health consequences, like depression, substance abuse, alcoholism, delay or loss of other needed health care, economic loss, job loss, family breakups, etc, against the virus' immediate health consequences, whether approaches like Sweden's are better than approaches like the UK's, and other important issues relating to handling the virus.

None of these has been settled by anything remotely resembling an "overwhelming consensus."

 

I'm referring to the standard public health responses recommended by the health experts to deal with the epidemic. There is an overwhelming consensus as to how to respond to the pandemic and the spread.  The basic tool kit is the same for all countries. The best way  to limit the consequences (that you listed) of the spread is to follow the basic guidelines that most of the health experts agree on in order to get control of the contagion sooner rather than later. 

[Eleven]

19 minutes ago, miles said:

have already asked my wife to just quit and we will live poor until she finds something new.

This is good advice.  I'd rather be completely broke and have her back at my side again.

[atoq]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

whether approaches like Sweden's are better than approaches like the UK's, and other important issues relating to handling the virus.

The "Swedish model" has been brought up several times in this thread, as though its a strategy that could be implemented in the US. Its important to note the incredible pre-COVID societal differences between the two countries.  Here is the ambassador from Sweden explaining some of those differences:

Quote

Karin Ulrika Olofsdotter, the Swedish ambassador in Washington, stressed that widespread trust in the country’s public agencies meant that most Swedes would voluntarily heed social distancing guidelines. Sweden’s robust social safety net and enhanced paid sick leave, she argued, would help ensure more Swedes would stay home if they felt symptoms or feared contracting the virus at their workplaces.

It's also important to note that Sweden has universal public health care (mostly government funded), meaning there aren't ~28 million people without health insurance like in the United States.

@nfreeman Are you advocating for universal health care and enhanced paid sick leave, following the Swedish model? 😃

Over the summer, we were told that Sweden wouldn't face a harsh second wave in the fall due to acquired immunity.

Quote

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist...predicted that Sweden would have accrued a higher level of immunity than its neighbors and that the impact of a second wave would “probably be quite low.”

Let's check in on how Sweden has been doing recently with COVID-19. https://www.ft.com/content/1e0ac31d-5abf-4a18-ab3e-eec9744a4d31

Quote

“Four days ago [Sweden] had eight times higher cases per capita than Finland and three and a half times more than Norway. They were supposed to have it worse off than us in the autumn because we were going to have immunity.”

Sweden has also maintained high COVID-19 mortality rates as the pandemic has progressed. .

So people are still getting sick and dying from COVID-19 in Sweden. Following @nfreeman's theory, these losses should be offset by the economic advantages from avoiding lock downs, thereby mitigating cascading negative impacts of job loss and economic hardship.

Sweden's GDP slumped 8.6% in Q2, more sharply than its neighbors despite its no-lockdown policy

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-gdp-falls-8pc-in-q2-worse-nordic-neighbors-2020-8

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-12/swedish-economy-weaker-than-official-forecasts-show-ingves-says?sref=GCzETbXp

Given all of the above, it seems likely that Sweden will be changing their policies towards COVID-19 in the near future. In fact they've already started this by limiting gathering sizes. It's hard to believe that people still advocate for the "Swedish model" even though recent evidence indicates it isn't working and the baseline social context was so different that this model wouldn't have been replicable in a country like the United States.

 

Edited November 20, 2020 by atoq

[nfreeman]

Well, Sweden has a much lower per capita Covid death rate than Belgium, Spain, France, Italy and the UK, both cumulatively and in the last 14 days.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

So, regardless of how sure one is in one's position, there is plenty of data to support a different view.

I'll also note that I wasn't even advocating for the Swedish approach vs the UK approach -- just pointing out that "the science" isn't "settled."

[matter2003]

8 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I recognize this as a huge problem for a big segment of our society.

OTOH, I am also waiting for the science/data that compels the closing of schools. The virus is rampaging through U.S. populations, to be sure, but I've not been shown that this is happening, in part, because schools are open.

My theory: The spread is almost entirely due to things (activities, choices) that our governments cannot control or reach (whether legally and/or practically).

So let me understand this...

We have seen it spread at universities, at parties, at family gatherings but somehow when there are multiple hundreds of people or even thousands of people in the same place indoors for long periods of time, the virus just stops spreading because it is a school? 

As Randy Moss would say on his highlight segment: "C'mon Man...." that just goes pretty far beyond the realm of common sense and believability. 

Edited November 20, 2020 by matter2003

[SwampD]

Again, why do I care what a country slightly larger than California with the population a little more than half the NYC metro area did?

[matter2003]

13 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, Sweden has a much lower per capita Covid death rate than Belgium, Spain, France, Italy and the UK, both cumulatively and in the last 14 days.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

So, regardless of how sure one is in one's position, there is plenty of data to support a different view.

I'll also note that I wasn't even advocating for the Swedish approach vs the UK approach -- just pointing out that "the science" isn't "settled."

Death rate has more to do with the DNA of the population and underlying conditions than anything else...it has been shown that people who have high percentage of Neanderthal DNA have a much higher chance to develop sickness due to some differences in certain genes and people who overproduce certain autoantibodies are also at much greater risk of getting sick as well as those with overactive immune systems.  This is in addition to numerous health factors and underlying conditions of the population and it's habits.  

They literally have identified specific genes and specific mutations on these genes that lead to a greater susceptibility and risk of severe reactions to the virus.  A person could check for these through a DNA test to learn how likely they are to get sick based on their genes.

So I would hypothesize countries with higher numbers of deaths likely have higher percentages of people who by definition are more likely to get sick and die from this virus than countries where the death rates are lower.

 

Edited November 20, 2020 by matter2003

[atoq]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Well, Sweden has a much lower per capita Covid death rate than Belgium, Spain, France, Italy and the UK, both cumulatively and in the last 14 days.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

So, regardless of how sure one is in one's position, there is plenty of data to support a different view.

I'll also note that I wasn't even advocating for the Swedish approach vs the UK approach -- just pointing out that "the science" isn't "settled."

I agree the science isn't settled and we all have much to learn on the subject.

When reviewing the data, its also important to consider the many factors that impact virus transmission and mortality rates from country to country outside of government policies on lockdowns, including societal factors like population density, health indicators, age distribution, health care system capacity, availability of health insurance, faith in public institutions, and local customs for personal space.

Most of the countries you mentioned that Sweden compares favorably too are in continental Europe. When compared to other Nordic countries, Sweden doesn't look so good anymore.

[Curt]

I thought the mods said that we were not supposed to discuss government responses or policies in here???

[Ducky]

 

They're sleeping...

Edited November 20, 2020 by Ducky

[spndnchz]

58 minutes ago, Curt said:

I thought the mods said that we were not supposed to discuss government responses or policies in here???

 

12 minutes ago, Ducky said:

 

They're sleeping...

Yeah, no.  
We’re talking science and methods not politics. 

[SABRES 0311]

For anyone who lives in California.

https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/11/19/state-issues-limited-stay-at-home-order-to-slow-spread-of-covid-19/
 

 

 

[Curt]

5 hours ago, spndnchz said:

 

Yeah, no.  
We’re talking science and methods not politics. 

Ok, just seems that discussion of national responses (methods) in this thread has previously been shut down.  Looking for clarity.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Ok, just seems that discussion of national responses (methods) in this thread has previously been shut down.  Looking for clarity.

I think discussion of methods is fine, unless it's used as a vehicle to make political jabs.

E.g. "full lockdowns work -- here's data from country X supporting that approach" is fine, but "the president/governor/prime minister is an idiot for not supporting lockdowns" is not OK.

[WildCard]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I think discussion of methods is fine, unless it's used as a vehicle to make political jabs.

E.g. "full lockdowns work -- here's data from country X supporting that approach" is fine, but "the president/governor/prime minister is an idiot for not supporting lockdowns" is not OK.

They're all idiots anyways

[I-90 W]

Heard from an inside source that things are looking bad for a shutdown here in NYS, like back to March bad. Probably not a surprise to anyone but it’s coming.