COVID-19

[nfreeman]

54 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You brought this in. Therefore, you have opened this area up for scrutiny and debate on the topic. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/health/coronavirus-great-barrington.html?referringSource=articleShare&fbclid=IwAR3bk-5r0D5wdnJFsa_YNiO1r_cQfo3zJEfDZxR0L4gEx6aJE6LJ-D5sXWY

https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/

I'm glad you posted this.  I think a reasonable discussion about lockdowns vs reopening, and the scientific support for each side, is a good conversation to have.  Especially when the Prince who was Promised is involved!

[LGR4GM]

The lockdown was done initially to slow spread and to give Doctors time to develop therapies and investigate the disease. The problem was it was not universal in the US and the result was the disease spread and has now started the 2nd wave explosion Epidemiologists knew was coming. Another lockdown won't necessarily help unless the disease and it's spread get worse. They can happen by ignoring social distancing, hand washing, and mask wearing guidelines. The GBD was trash when it came out because it is just a bunch of ppl flailing on the internet without having any solutions or proposals for how to make something work. Everyone in the US should have free healthcare, that's great but how would we make it work. That declaration did nothing but to add fuel to the fire that has run rampant in this country that science got it wrong and we should never have locked down and we should never have really worried. That is ***** and it was irresponsible of them. Seeing now how that declaration came about and who they report too or wanted to gain favor with, I am not surprised in the least. 

[LGR4GM]

To come out now and say the lockdown was bad is a complete failure to understand why it occurred in the first place and why it was required. There is a reason we won't have a full lockdown again and that is okay. The lockdown bought time and with that time we bought knowledge. 

[JohnC]

35 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

To come out now and say the lockdown was bad is a complete failure to understand why it occurred in the first place and why it was required. There is a reason we won't have a full lockdown again and that is okay. The lockdown bought time and with that time we bought knowledge. 

If people would just listen to the national treasure in Dr. Fauci and simply do the basics in wearing a mask, social distancing and washing hands the virus would be greatly contained (not subdued). The head of our government not only gives credence but also authority to a crackpot like Dr. Atlas instead of embracing the advice of Dr. Fauci is an act of insanity. 

[Wyldnwoody44]

3 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If people would just listen to the national treasure in Dr. Fauci and simply do the basics in wearing a mask, social distancing and washing hands the virus would be greatly contained (not subdued). The head of our government not only gives credence but also authority to a crackpot like Dr. Atlas instead of embracing the advice of Dr. Fauci is an act of insanity. 

National Treasure, a bit much eh. What knowledge have we bought? As far as I see it, we're 7 months in and still not handling this well. Our knowledge of the disease process hasn't really been improved much when you consider the amount of work put into it this year, we still have conflictig reports and no treatment that is known to work. Some good guesses, sure. I am aware it's a virus and treatments are limited, but still. It's not a popular opinion but I still think the devastating effects beyond what can be measured in polls, charts, and statistics; are going to be much worse in the coming 5 years. 

I went hiking at tift nature preserve before I left, children were actively scared walking by people without masks on, outside.... Are we discounting the effect this is going to have on social cues going forward?

[nfreeman]

To be clear — discussion of lockdowns vs reopening is fine in this thread, but not random shots at political leaders of any affiliation.  

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

The lockdown was done initially to slow spread and to give Doctors time to develop therapies and investigate the disease. The problem was it was not universal in the US and the result was the disease spread and has now started the 2nd wave explosion Epidemiologists knew was coming. Another lockdown won't necessarily help unless the disease and it's spread get worse. They can happen by ignoring social distancing, hand washing, and mask wearing guidelines. The GBD was trash when it came out because it is just a bunch of ppl flailing on the internet without having any solutions or proposals for how to make something work. Everyone in the US should have free healthcare, that's great but how would we make it work. That declaration did nothing but to add fuel to the fire that has run rampant in this country that science got it wrong and we should never have locked down and we should never have really worried. That is ***** and it was irresponsible of them. Seeing now how that declaration came about and who they report too or wanted to gain favor with, I am not surprised in the least. 

It wasn’t a bunch of random people.  The 3 authors of the GBD are epidemiologists and scientists from Oxford, Harvard and Stanford — ie substantially better credentialed than the authors of the Jon Snow article.

I think an important starting point in a discussion like this is to accept that there are reasonable, intelligent and well-intentioned people on both sides, and very limited and often-conflicting data.  

[JohnC]

Just now, Wyldnwoody44 said:

National Treasure, a bit much eh. What knowledge have we bought? As far as I see it, we're 7 months in and still not handling this well. Our knowledge of the disease process hasn't really been improved much when you consider the amount of work put into it this year, we still have conflictig reports and no treatment that is known to work. Some good guesses, sure. I am aware it's a virus and treatments are limited, but still. It's not a popular opinion but I still think the devastating effects beyond what can be measured in polls, charts, and statistics; are going to be much worse in the coming 5 years. 

I went hiking at tift nature preserve before I left, children were actively scared walking by people without masks on, outside.... Are we discounting the effect this is going to have on social cues going forward?

The problem is that the WH is not following his basic/standard recommendations in dealing with such a highly infectious disease. I disagree with you that our knowledge of the disease hasn't improved much. For a new disease the knowledge base is increasing at a fairly rapid rate. I do agree with you that the devastating effects are going to be long-term because it is world wide and continues to spread. 

There are countries that have not severely been affected by this pernicious virus such as Viet Nam and Taiwan. They have been steadfast in sticking to the basics in public health such as mask wearing etc., and it has work. In fact, Taiwan has a lot of business and personal interaction with China but has still been able to control the disease. They have scrupulously stuck to the basics, and it has worked. 

 

[miles]

10 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

National Treasure, a bit much eh. What knowledge have we bought? As far as I see it, we're 7 months in and still not handling this well. Our knowledge of the disease process hasn't really been improved much when you consider the amount of work put into it this year, we still have conflictig reports and no treatment that is known to work. Some good guesses, sure. I am aware it's a virus and treatments are limited, but still. It's not a popular opinion but I still think the devastating effects beyond what can be measured in polls, charts, and statistics; are going to be much worse in the coming 5 years. 

I went hiking at tift nature preserve before I left, children were actively scared walking by people without masks on, outside.... Are we discounting the effect this is going to have on social cues going forward?

but its not just the usa, nearly every country is seeing another surge, and many of the states are getting their first real surge. I live in nj and we had something like 4k cases per day in april per day, and we are at 500 to 1000 per day.   Our numbers are only going up because we re-opened, so we knew it would go up. the biggest difference is deaths. you were hearing large amounts of deaths and now its much lower.

 

I am truly hopeful that we get a working vaccine very soon. i havent been able to see my family since march and my mother is elderly and not in the greatest of health. 

 

[SwampD]

36 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

National Treasure, a bit much eh. What knowledge have we bought? As far as I see it, we're 7 months in and still not handling this well. Our knowledge of the disease process hasn't really been improved much when you consider the amount of work put into it this year, we still have conflictig reports and no treatment that is known to work. Some good guesses, sure. I am aware it's a virus and treatments are limited, but still. It's not a popular opinion but I still think the devastating effects beyond what can be measured in polls, charts, and statistics; are going to be much worse in the coming 5 years. 

I went hiking at tift nature preserve before I left, children were actively scared walking by people without masks on, outside.... Are we discounting the effect this is going to have on social cues going forward?

We’re they actively scared, or just smart enough to take the precaution of keeping their distance?

[North Buffalo]

We can get into motivations and political bias minimalization v hysteria... but it befuddles me why mask wearing social distancing and washing hands became wrapped up in this controversy. Definitions of social distancing maybe I can see a bit and no shutting down makes no sense to me.

Edited October 21, 2020 by North Buffalo

[nfreeman]

2 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

We an get into motivations and political bias minimizations v hysteria... but it befuddles me why mask wearing social distancing and washing hands became wrapped up in this controversy. Definitions of social distancing maybe I can see a bit and no shutting down makes no sense to me.

The reason many people oppose shutdowns is because of the costs -- for example:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8856959/Lockdowns-lethal-toll-NHS-vulnerable-patients-laid-bare.html

 

Quote

 

At least 25,000 more people have died at home during the pandemic in England and Wales because they were unable to – or chose not to – go to hospital, a surge of 43.8 per cent on normal levels.

...

A British Medical Journal study found that during lockdown, endoscopies for bowel cancer averaged just 12 per cent of normal levels, and at one point were down to 5 per cent. Delays in bowel cancer diagnosis are likely to lead to between 650 and 2,250 excess deaths in England, according to another BMJ paper. A Lancet study found delays for breast, lung and oesophageal cancer patients caused by the lockdown were likely to cause a further 2,000 excess deaths.

A University College London study for the British Medical Journal found that hospital admissions for chemotherapy fell by up to 66 per cent in April, while urgent referrals for early cancer diagnosis were down by up to 89 per cent. It concluded that this would lead to 6,270 extra deaths in the first year.

...

The Office of National Statistics found that rates of depression across all ages and genders in England roughly doubled, from one in ten to one in five.

Another paper in the British Journal of Psychiatry said 18 per cent of UK adults reported having suicidal thoughts in the first month of the lockdown. Another suggested: ‘There is a high probability that suicide rates will increase.’

 

 

 

 

[Wyldnwoody44]

46 minutes ago, miles said:

but its not just the usa, nearly every country is seeing another surge, and many of the states are getting their first real surge. I live in nj and we had something like 4k cases per day in april per day, and we are at 500 to 1000 per day.   Our numbers are only going up because we re-opened, so we knew it would go up. the biggest difference is deaths. you were hearing large amounts of deaths and now its much lower.

 

I am truly hopeful that we get a working vaccine very soon. i havent been able to see my family since march and my mother is elderly and not in the greatest of health. 

 

We did know this and it's pandemic 101, there was always going to be a 2nd spike and there will be a 3rd as well, with almost every virus it does get weaker each spike. The illness is much less grave, so now it's time to carefully look forward at the same time and treating the current situation. 

[LGR4GM]

45 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

It wasn’t a bunch of random people.  The 3 authors of the GBD are epidemiologists and scientists from Oxford, Harvard and Stanford — ie substantially better credentialed than the authors of the Jon Snow article.

I think an important starting point in a discussion like this is to accept that there are reasonable, intelligent and well-intentioned people on both sides, and very limited and often-conflicting data.  

I think an important starting point to this discussion is to understand that one side is heavily biased and not using the best science. Further they are trying to re-write history in order to help an ideology. We know for facts that the lockdown helped slow the spread and bought us time. Going back now and claiming it wasn't needed and that everything can just open again and go back to normal is not based in science. 

They said in the GBD "leading to greater excess mortality in years to come" was a result of lockdown yet they completely fail to acknowledge the completely unknown long term effects of COVID 19. They say this, without evidence " Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza." Which is funny because it is parroting a talking point. Let me just break this one piece of garbage down. 

In the 2019 Flu Season there were 477 deaths due to influenza for 0-17 year olds according to the CDC. That is out of 6.4 million medical visit cases (so cases where they had to go to the doctor or hospital). 

Now let us look at COVID. There were 448 deaths due to COVID alone (age range 0-24, sorry the range is 15-24 so we go over here), that is without influenza or pneumonia playing a part. Okay so hey they are right then! NO they are not because that is in just roughly 1 million cases. So we have almost the same amount of death in 6 times less cases. So when someone yells that the lockdown was bad and that we can just return to normal, I shake my head. Let's scale this up, 6.4million cases of COVID in the same population and you get what? Almost 3,000 deaths in children, CHILDREN. I have a big problem with the type of irresponsible declaration going on and the fact it is being used as a political prop. 

We are talking about a disease that in 8.2 million cases is magnitudes more deadly than the common flu. 68k total deaths from Influenza last year in 70 million cases compared to 215k deaths in 8.2million cases to date. So ***** the GBD and their ***** regurgitated talking points. 

[miles]

One thing to keep in mind when talking about the statistics with comparing it. Many cases go unreported because of minor symptoms or none at all. In fact at one point they said the number of actual cases could be significantly higher. also how many people had it before testing 

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

The reason many people oppose shutdowns is because of the costs -- for example:  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8856959/Lockdowns-lethal-toll-NHS-vulnerable-patients-laid-bare.html

 

But we aren't locking down again, we are social distancing and wearing masks. I find it interesting the highest mask compliance is in NY and NE and they seem to be holding rates lower than other places. The GBD isn't about lockdowns. It is about pushing a propaganda message that doesn't align with facts to downplay a disease that has killed more Americans in 7 months than died in the European Theatre in WWII. It is, was, and will be political theatre. 

[WildCard]

9 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

We did know this and it's pandemic 101, there was always going to be a 2nd spike and there will be a 3rd as well, with almost every virus it does get weaker each spike. The illness is much less grave, so now it's time to carefully look forward at the same time and treating the current situation. 

Weaker in what way/how? And what do you mean 'less grave' ?

[LGR4GM]

You know how I know the GBD is trash? No where in that entire document do they even use the word mask or social distancing. Now... what group has pushed that very thing over and over in the US public spear, not worrying about masks or social distancing?

 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

Weaker in what way/how? And what do you mean 'less grave' ?

It goes to vectors and immunity. There will be less disease vectors in subsequent outbreaks if the disease doesn't mutate because there will be immunity in the population and that will dampens spread, sometimes erroneously talked about as heard immunity. 

Because we have more information on the disease and because a portion of the population will have some type of immunity the outcomes should be lessened (aka death).

This actually occurs with the flu and a reason you should get your flu shot. Even if you get the a flu strain not in the shot you statistically will have a better chance of fighting the flu off and suffering less from it. 

[nfreeman]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think an important starting point to this discussion is to understand that one side is heavily biased and not using the best science. Further they are trying to re-write history in order to help an ideology. We know for facts that the lockdown helped slow the spread and bought us time. Going back now and claiming it wasn't needed and that everything can just open again and go back to normal is not based in science. 

They said in the GBD "leading to greater excess mortality in years to come" was a result of lockdown yet they completely fail to acknowledge the completely unknown long term effects of COVID 19. They say this, without evidence " Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza." Which is funny because it is parroting a talking point. Let me just break this one piece of garbage down. 

In the 2019 Flu Season there were 477 deaths due to influenza for 0-17 year olds according to the CDC. That is out of 6.4 million medical visit cases (so cases where they had to go to the doctor or hospital). 

Now let us look at COVID. There were 448 deaths due to COVID alone (age range 0-24, sorry the range is 15-24 so we go over here), that is without influenza or pneumonia playing a part. Okay so hey they are right then! NO they are not because that is in just roughly 1 million cases. So we have almost the same amount of death in 6 times less cases. So when someone yells that the lockdown was bad and that we can just return to normal, I shake my head. Let's scale this up, 6.4million cases of COVID in the same population and you get what? Almost 3,000 deaths in children, CHILDREN. I have a big problem with the type of irresponsible declaration going on and the fact it is being used as a political prop. 

We are talking about a disease that in 8.2 million cases is magnitudes more deadly than the common flu. 68k total deaths from Influenza last year in 70 million cases compared to 215k deaths in 8.2million cases to date. So ***** the GBD and their ***** regurgitated talking points. 

 

I think your data on children are a bit off.  The WSJ has an article today on this:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/end-the-school-shutdown-11603235888?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

Quote

 

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report that of all Covid-19 deaths up to Oct. 10, only 74 were of children under age 15. During the 2019-20 flu season, the CDC estimates, 434 children under 18 died of the flu.

 

 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think an important starting point to this discussion is to understand that one side is heavily biased and not using the best science. Further they are trying to re-write history in order to help an ideology. We know for facts that the lockdown helped slow the spread and bought us time. Going back now and claiming it wasn't needed and that everything can just open again and go back to normal is not based in science. 

They said in the GBD "leading to greater excess mortality in years to come" was a result of lockdown yet they completely fail to acknowledge the completely unknown long term effects of COVID 19. They say this, without evidence " Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza." Which is funny because it is parroting a talking point. Let me just break this one piece of garbage down. 

In the 2019 Flu Season there were 477 deaths due to influenza for 0-17 year olds according to the CDC. That is out of 6.4 million medical visit cases (so cases where they had to go to the doctor or hospital). 

Now let us look at COVID. There were 448 deaths due to COVID alone (age range 0-24, sorry the range is 15-24 so we go over here), that is without influenza or pneumonia playing a part. Okay so hey they are right then! NO they are not because that is in just roughly 1 million cases. So we have almost the same amount of death in 6 times less cases. So when someone yells that the lockdown was bad and that we can just return to normal, I shake my head. Let's scale this up, 6.4million cases of COVID in the same population and you get what? Almost 3,000 deaths in children, CHILDREN. I have a big problem with the type of irresponsible declaration going on and the fact it is being used as a political prop. 

We are talking about a disease that in 8.2 million cases is magnitudes more deadly than the common flu. 68k total deaths from Influenza last year in 70 million cases compared to 215k deaths in 8.2million cases to date. So ***** the GBD and their ***** regurgitated talking points. 

I agree with most of what you posted but...

One thing NOT in the stats when comparing it to the flu is that with the flu you had 68k deaths WITH millions of people getting a flu shot prior to it's season. There was no vaccine prior to Covid so more deaths could be expected. We could drop in death to compatible levels of the flu once we have that vaccine.

Hopefully even less as no deaths are except able.

[nfreeman]

24 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

But we aren't locking down again, we are social distancing and wearing masks. I find it interesting the highest mask compliance is in NY and NE and they seem to be holding rates lower than other places. The GBD isn't about lockdowns. It is about pushing a propaganda message that doesn't align with facts to downplay a disease that has killed more Americans in 7 months than died in the European Theatre in WWII. It is, was, and will be political theatre. 

 

No.  The GBD is 100% about lockdowns and the cost they exact on society.  It says, in the 2nd paragraph:  https://gbdeclaration.org/

Quote

Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice. 

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

 

 

I should note:  you refer a number of times in your posts to wearing masks.  The vast majority of those who are anti-lockdown and pro-GBD do not oppose wearing masks.  They simply want schools, workplaces and society generally to reopen, with precautionary measures in place to protect the vulnerable, because the costs of continuing as we have been are way too high.

[LGR4GM]

22 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

I think your data on children are a bit off.  The WSJ has an article today on this:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/end-the-school-shutdown-11603235888?mod=opinion_lead_pos5

 

Literally said that the CDC report I was reviewing had the age range 15-24 so that was something to consider. 

Also it is 477 deaths for influenza under 18. Idk where the WSJ got their numbers but they could be looking at a different season https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html 

Also also just because you don't die doesn't mean there is no lasting damage. Also also also just because you don't die doesn't mean you can't get the disease and transmit it to anyone in the age range above where we see mortality start to triple. Also also also also... that 74 number is suspicious to me. I bet that is COVID only without underlying conditions which is and will continue to be a bad way of doing things. 

The other key here is you don't see the forest through the trees. You are talking about opening schools completely. Okay, now who works in schools? Where do those ppl go after school? What if little timmy infects someone who isn't 18 or younger? You just added 100 extra variables which is the point. The point of social distancing and keeping schools at lower capacity is to stop the spread because more spread will get to the more vulnerable. 

The GBD is highly problematic and now with more evidence about its founders we are starting to understand the malice behind why it was written. 

Edited October 21, 2020 by LGR4GM

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

No.  The GBD is 100% about lockdowns and the cost they exact on society.  It says, in the 2nd paragraph:  https://gbdeclaration.org/

 

I should note:  you refer a number of times in your posts to wearing masks.  The vast majority of those who are anti-lockdown and pro-GBD do not oppose wearing masks.  They simply want schools, workplaces and society generally to reopen, with precautionary measures in place to protect the vulnerable, because the costs of continuing as we have been are way too high.

Oh, then how come GBD doesn't mention it once? 

And no they are not about ending lockdowns, they are about downplaying COVID because it doesn't fit their worldview. 

[North Buffalo]

IMO full lockdowns become less important for all the reasons Wyld mentions... but isolated localized short term lock downs sure because of the difficulty in contact tracing and folks not following protocols.  If there had been the leadership that NY implemented from the get go at its height the severity of this second/wave in other areas of the country would be a lot less imo.  While we are seeing a slight uptick nowhere near what we saw last April near NYC.  School are jumping on isolating any positive cases.