COVID-19

[SwampD]

I don’t know if I’ve ever heard my neighborhood this quiet. Even at 2 in the morning on a weekend.

It’s weird when you hear a plane.

[Stoner]

21 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

I wasn't being sarcastic in my post, I genuinely meant that things were civil, many months ago things got outta hand, in the heat of the pandemic and I took some time away, it wasn't with you. 

Since this thing isn't going away anytime soon, how long do we keep many things at a low capacity, certain businesses closed, borders closed, etc. 

At some point we have to deal with the fact that we have a new thing to deal with and we have to open things up wisely, but they need to move forward. 

The easy answer is — when Covid 19 has roughly the same impact on society as the flu. So, an effective vaccine, some kind of anti-viral or other therapeutics, a knowledge base of how to treat it and keep deaths at a minimum, a population that is savvy. On the latter point, with the flu people get the flu shot, call their docs early to get Tamiflu, stay at home. That's easy stuff. With Covid it's going to require a little more. Which we've already seen is inexplicably challenging for some people.

One thing I'm hoping to see is a very light flu season in terms of deaths, because everything we should be doing for Covid should prevent the flu as well.

What we really need, of course, is quick, reasonably accurate point of care tests that aren't just for people getting near the president or guys who play with vulcanized rubber disks.

[Wyldnwoody44]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

The easy answer is — when Covid 19 has roughly the same impact on society as the flu. So, an effective vaccine, some kind of anti-viral or other therapeutics, a knowledge base of how to treat it and keep deaths at a minimum, a population that is savvy. On the latter point, with the flu people get the flu shot, call their docs early to get Tamiflu, stay at home. That's easy stuff. With Covid it's going to require a little more. Which we've already seen is inexplicably challenging for some people.

One thing I'm hoping to see is a very light flu season in terms of deaths, because everything we should be doing for Covid should prevent the flu as well.

What we really need, of course, is quick, reasonably accurate point of care tests that aren't just for people getting near the president or guys who play with vulcanized rubber disks.

I agree on the testing, I also would like to see the accuracy of the testing get closer to 90%, although teasing out this specific coronavurus strand is posing to be the challenge. 

I'm also curious to see how the flu season stacks up this year, normally it's very busy, I'm hoping for a bit of reprieve this year in those regards. 

[Stoner]

@Taro T Did you see the shots of the heart of NYC at the height of the crisis? I actually saw what looked like a tumbleweed go rolling across Fifth Avenue. The extreme measures NYers took seems like the more logical explanation for bending the curve than herd immunity being reached at such a relatively low level of infection. You talk about 20% a lot. Is this your theory or is there any weight behind it?

[chileanseabass]

Not going to take sides in any sort of COVID related discussion, just contributing a story... this pandemic has practically, and literally, killed the company I work for.  We organize international trade shows.  A once robust company of 10 employees has been reduced to 5.  We've been able to keep the company "alive," through some new virtual events we're developing.  We usually coordinate 20-30 trade events per year, all overseas.  This year, every single event we're involved in has been canceled or postponed to 2021 or later.  Oddly enough, the only event on target to actually occur, will be one in China at the end of September.  Between that and the new virtual developments, we've been able to keep the company afloat for another 6 months or so, but that's after 25% paycuts for the 3 executives back in April and laying off 4 staff members.  The stress of managing this whole disaster took its toll on the owner of the company and he succumbed to a massive heart attack last Tuesday.  He was 64, great health, no known issues, and gearing up for his retirement in April.  Now his daughter and I are picking up the pieces, trying to keep things chugging along, and holding out hope for better days ahead. 

I'm not sure what the answer is to get over COVID.  I have clients in Sweden who think they've handled it horribly.  I have clients here in the US who think we're handling it horribly, some say too many restrictions, while some say not enough.  I have clients in China who say everyone's screwing this up except for them.  I just want to wake up and have life return to normal.  

[shrader]

To be fair, anyone in China who thinks it was handled poorly is probably dead.

[Taro T]

48 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

@Taro T Did you see the shots of the heart of NYC at the height of the crisis? I actually saw what looked like a tumbleweed go rolling across Fifth Avenue. The extreme measures NYers took seems like the more logical explanation for bending the curve than herd immunity being reached at such a relatively low level of infection. You talk about 20% a lot. Is this your theory or is there any weight behind it?

Yep.  Saw pictures on the news of NYC & also saw pictures on the news (courtesy of CBS) of Italian ER wards purported to be in NYC.  Also saw photos of NYC where there were still fairly large congregations of people.

It may very well turn out that it was the measures undertaken in NYC, & Phoenix, & Houston, and elsewhere that turned the tide.  But, it also may turnout that the progress of the virus transmission wasn't reduced for those reasons.  Sweden more or less never underwent a draconian shutdown and yet their numbers are down as well.  Why?  What commonalities are there between the regions that are on the good side of the curve?

The theory that there is an inherent immunity in populations even though this is a novel disease is not mine.  There are several people that have floated the idea and could explain the mechanisms for why it might work far better than yours truly.  But it seems plausible and it could be the answer to that question above: what is the commonality for regions globally that are on the right side of the curve?  (And, please don't misunderstand, am NOT saying that is the reason; merely that if there is something to it that it explains that correlation and IMHO better than saying all these regions that followed very different courses all figured it out at the same relative time.)

It also could answer why it seems that (when projections are made for how many people that actually have been exposed to the virus never got tested) when a region gets to exposure rates of ~20% then the cases decrease. 

And also, am truly thankful that we've all gotten better at protecting the highly vulnerable populations as reflected in areas larger than NYS having more cases but mortalities running ~20% of what NYC saw.  Looking forward to the understandings that have already been learned leading to even better results.

But, my expectation is, barring a vaccine or successful treatment regimen being developed very soon that we will continue to see the virus strike in areas it hasn't struck hard in without returning to those that got hit fully a 1st time.  And, in places that did go to tight lock downs as the virus started to hit but before it rolled though to the level of those places that got pounded that we may see 2nd spikes but only comparable to what would've taken place to get that area up to whatever that herd immunity threshold actually is.  (Huh? In English, please.  Meaning, for kicks we'll use that 20% threshold; then if an area locked down hard at 10% exposure rates, then they'll see up to ~10% in a 2nd wave; if they had 5%, they could see up to 15%;  and so on.)

We'll know soon enough if there's any merit to the theory.  If somewhere spikes far worse than that or if NYC or Houston or LA get a 2nd spike then the theory was worth what it was written on.  

Heck, there was an early theory that there'd be a seasonality to the disease which initially seemed plausible  but doesn't appear to have any validity to it.  Is what it is.

And as an aside: may be a while before I can respond to further inquiries.  Between work and some personal obligations will not have much time to be typing out novellas.  Will try to get back to this thread but, as already mentioned, it could be a while.

[Stoner]

15 hours ago, shrader said:

To be fair, anyone in China who thinks it was handled poorly is probably dead.

They are human rights monsters!

[SwampD]

What TF is Patch, and why does every search now get pointed there?! Has Google taken over all local news now, as well? Or is it the Russians?
 

F them.

Edited August 12, 2020 by SwampD

[Indabuff]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

What TF is Patch, and why does every search now get pointed there?! Has Google taken over all local news now, as well? Or is it the Russians?
 

F them.

 

[SwampD]

On 8/9/2020 at 12:31 PM, SwampD said:

I really think your view would be different if you were down here (tristate area). I don’t know anyone who doesn’t know someone that died. We had 470 deaths in my town alone. With a population of around 16500 people, that’s almost 3%. That’s significant.

Retraction: The more I thought about this the more I realized it could not be correct and now I can’t find the site I got them from and every search points my to Patch.com. I hate the internet.

Thats got to be cases.

Im going to go read a book.

[Brawndo]

On 8/10/2020 at 2:29 PM, Wyldnwoody44 said:

I agree on the testing, I also would like to see the accuracy of the testing get closer to 90%, although teasing out this specific coronavurus strand is posing to be the challenge. 

I'm also curious to see how the flu season stacks up this year, normally it's very busy, I'm hoping for a bit of reprieve this year in those regards. 

COVID Prevention Protocols have virtually wiped out the Flu Season in the Southern Hemisphere thus which as you know precedes ours. It will be interesting to see if it’s replicated In the Northern Hemisphere. 

[shrader]

11 hours ago, Brawndo said:

COVID Prevention Protocols have virtually wiped out the Flu Season in the Southern Hemisphere thus which as you know precedes ours. It will be interesting to see if it’s replicated In the Northern Hemisphere. 

That's the one thing that concerns me a bit about the masks.  They're probably going to become the norm for a long time after this is over.  People will want to wear them, and that's completely fine, but it's that public shaming for not wearing them that I worry about.  We did just fine without them for 100 years during flu season, we'll still be fine without them come fall 2022 (assuming COVID actually does become manageable at some point).

[Weave]

I caught a headline that COVID immunity is estimated at “up to” 3 months.  That's not much of a timeframe for immunity if accurate.

[Curt]

39 minutes ago, Weave said:

I caught a headline that COVID immunity is estimated at “up to” 3 months.  That's not much of a timeframe for immunity if accurate.

It’s going to be more like a flu shot than, say a measles vaccine.  It’s not going to be:  “I got my shot, now I’ll never get COVID!”  More like:  “I got my shot, hopefully I won’t get COVID this year.”

However, if a lot of people in a given area are vaccinated within a couple months of each other, it’s going to have a huge effect on the virus‘ ability to spread.  It could change it from a pandemic, to something that we can deal with while going about “normal” life.

[drnkirishone]

Can't wait for the anti vaxxer jackasses to come out of the woodwork over it

[BagBoy]

A thought occurred to me yesterday about the herd immunity discussion upthread.  Some were questioning how only a 20% infection rate could result in a plateau of new cases.  There was some speculation that maybe an additional 50% of the population was either just plain immune to COVID or had gotten it without any symptoms or realization, which is a very sensible line of speculation to me.  But what happens if the discussion is not just biology driven and introduces behavior into the equation?  In a complete oversimplification, let's say there are 3 kinds of people: 1)first-line responders (on paper probably more susceptible due to proximity and number of interactions with infected people and places), 2)the careful people (who wear masks and social distance and do all the right things religiously), and 3)the group I will somewhat euphemistically refer to as the reckless (those who refuse to wear masks, regularly go to bars and parties, etc.).

My assumptions are that group 1 can limit exposure due to proper equipment, sound protocols and good training (granted less so for police and firefighters vs. medical personnel).  Group 2 can keep exposure pretty close to 0 (provided not in an urban area, or not having a job where working at home is possible, etc.).  So maybe the herd immunity really only applies to group 3.  Once that group achieves 80% infection, or whatever the herd immunity exposure percentage requires, then there are very few people left who are in any real danger of catching it.

I'm sure there are many holes in this line of reasoning, and many reasons why it would be extremely difficult or impossible to prove, but I thought I'd throw it out there anyway.

[nucci]

On 8/15/2020 at 2:16 PM, drnkirishone said:

Can't wait for the anti vaxxer jackasses to come out of the woodwork over it

They're already out

[Stoner]

23 minutes ago, nucci said:

They're already out

They're not even anti vaxxers. It's a lot of normal people who don't know the term anti vaxxer or the "movement."

[Eleven]

We'd like to welcome Alaska and Delaware back to The List.

https://abc7ny.com/new-york-quarantine-jersey-nj-states/6284542/

[Weave]

59 minutes ago, Eleven said:

We'd like to welcome Alaska and Delaware back to The List.

https://abc7ny.com/new-york-quarantine-jersey-nj-states/6284542/

And Ohio removed from the list.

[nucci]

13 hours ago, Eleven said:

We'd like to welcome Alaska and Delaware back to The List.

https://abc7ny.com/new-york-quarantine-jersey-nj-states/6284542/

Come on. I'm in Delaware. We're ok here. I need to go home and visit a brother recovering from surgery

Edited August 19, 2020 by nucci

[North Buffalo]

On 8/15/2020 at 7:14 PM, BagBoy said:

A thought occurred to me yesterday about the herd immunity discussion upthread.  Some were questioning how only a 20% infection rate could result in a plateau of new cases.  There was some speculation that maybe an additional 50% of the population was either just plain immune to COVID or had gotten it without any symptoms or realization, which is a very sensible line of speculation to me.  But what happens if the discussion is not just biology driven and introduces behavior into the equation?  In a complete oversimplification, let's say there are 3 kinds of people: 1)first-line responders (on paper probably more susceptible due to proximity and number of interactions with infected people and places), 2)the careful people (who wear masks and social distance and do all the right things religiously), and 3)the group I will somewhat euphemistically refer to as the reckless (those who refuse to wear masks, regularly go to bars and parties, etc.).

My assumptions are that group 1 can limit exposure due to proper equipment, sound protocols and good training (granted less so for police and firefighters vs. medical personnel).  Group 2 can keep exposure pretty close to 0 (provided not in an urban area, or not having a job where working at home is possible, etc.).  So maybe the herd immunity really only applies to group 3.  Once that group achieves 80% infection, or whatever the herd immunity exposure percentage requires, then there are very few people left who are in any real danger of catching it.

I'm sure there are many holes in this line of reasoning, and many reasons why it would be extremely difficult or impossible to prove, but I thought I'd throw it out there anyway.

Interesting and plausible

[North Buffalo]

I worry about my kids returning to high and middle school.  As many know I had it in early April... no fun... I quarantined away from my family and they did not get it.  Also immunity reports recently say immunity may last longer than originally thought.  Again still a lot of uncertainty with this thing.  

We may do online learning until we see how things are working at the schools. Luckily my wife and I stagger our shifts at the hospitals we work at so as much of a pain it is we can do it.  

It is going to be an interesting fall if nothing else to see how people and especially kids behave.  It's gonna be tough for all those concerned.

[Eleven]

Infectious Diseases Society of America has come out against HCQ:  https://www.idsociety.org/practice-guideline/covid-19-guideline-treatment-and-management/

(Click on "executive summary:).