COVID-19

[carpandean]

6 hours ago, hsif said:

Montana was added to the new listing...... 2 deaths yesterday....... 110 new cases (7-day avg.) on 2900 tests (7-day avg)..... or 3.8% positive on tests...... I don't understand the NYS hurdles. 

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/all-metrics-per-state

[SwampD]

I think I finished the internet and I can’t watch another second of television.

... and it’s too damn muggy to see the comet.

covid sux.

[SABRES 0311]

[North Buffalo]

23 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Is there a place you go for reliable up to date data that provides more than total new cases, total new deaths, etc.? I hear a lot about hospitalization rates, deaths per 100,000, and so on -- it seems that we need more context than "cases are increasing in number."

Yeh that is hard to find in a database

[North Buffalo]

11 hours ago, carpandean said:

 

now you have

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by North Buffalo

[hsif]

I'm headed to Montana in September to chase elk...... Looks like fun, eh? Although, this pic was from early November, and back when I was a real man. Rain + freeze + snow = misery. Hoping that the Montana covid numbers come back into line so I won't have to quarantine upon return. 

[Tondas]

5 minutes ago, hsif said:

I'm headed to Montana in September to chase elk...... Looks like fun, eh? Although, this pic was from early November, and back when I was a real man. Rain + freeze + snow = misery. Hoping that the Montana covid numbers come back into line so I won't have to quarantine upon return. 

That's impressive.  Sitting on my balcony, I run into my apartment at the first clap of thunder.  

[darksabre]

Montana is gorgeous and I want to go back

[That Aud Smell]

I follow some COVID-19 skeptics on Twitter, just so I'm not hearing just one message.

One of them (Berenson?) pointed out this CDC slide deck from a few years back, which is interesting food for thought.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/pdf/mitigationslides.pdf

One takeaway: A Category 2 influenza pandemic would involve between 90K and 450K excess deaths. Category 2 flu pandemics were previously experienced in 1957 and 1968. The mitigation measures recommended for a "Cat 2" in these CDC materials are ... well, it's a little hard to tell whether they're less strict than what's being done now.

Edited July 22, 2020 by That Aud Smell

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I follow some COVID-19 skeptics on Twitter, just so I'm not hearing just one message.

One of them (Berenson?) pointed out this CDC slide deck from a few years back, which is interesting food for thought.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/pdf/mitigationslides.pdf

One takeaway: A Category 2 influenza pandemic would involve between 90K and 450K excess deaths. Category 2 flu pandemics were previously experienced in 1957 and 1968. The mitigation measures recommended for a "Cat 2" in these CDC materials are ... well, it's a little hard to tell whether they're less strict than what's being done now.

The only thing I will note is that assumes a 30% illness rate. 30% would be 96million ppl. Let's say we have 1% death rate in that... we have 960,000k deaths. Let's pray to god we don't see 30% infection rates. 

[That Aud Smell]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The only thing I will note is that assumes a 30% illness rate. 30% would be 96million ppl. Let's say we have 1% death rate in that... we have 960,000k deaths. Let's pray to god we don't see 30% infection rates. 

I'm just catching that now. I appreciate your keen eye on it as well. What's our national illness rate? 1%? 2%?

So the fact that COVID-19 is currently within the limits of Category 2 is a function of the steps that have been taken, not its likely lethality.

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I'm just catching that now. I appreciate your keen eye on it as well. What's our national illness rate? 1%? 2%?

So the fact that COVID-19 is currently within the limits of Category 2 is a function of the steps that have been taken, not its likely lethality.

If you read that chart is shows what a mortality rate looks like at 30% for each category. If we ran a true 30% illness rate and 1% death rate we would be in Cat 4. 

I would guess that mask usage and social distancing has definitely helped. We won't know it's actual lethality for awhile but I think around 1% seems likely. There are so many underlying conditions it impacts it is really hard to say what C19 really does and who is most at risk (outside of obviously older adults). We also don't know about lasting impacts such as children having issues later in life who are COVID survivors. A lot of questions right now and that is why Fauci for example has changed answers as time has progressed, it's just science learning more and things being updated as we go. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by LGR4GM

[Stoner]

On 7/21/2020 at 11:10 AM, That Aud Smell said:

this also seems helpful

https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/all-metrics-per-state

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I will be venturing out to the grocery store tomorrow when they open at 7:00 AM for my monthly outing.

Will be dressed like a bankrobber ... hey, oh @Sabel79 ... 

 

[biodork]

On 7/1/2020 at 6:12 AM, Weave said:

It’s too bad @biodorkisn’t active on this site any more.  Would be interesting to hear from additional voices with medical research experience.  Claude adds an interesting perspective to the conversation.

Oh hai

[biodork]

Sorry I've been MIA, all; my lab is actually running COVID tests (the PCR test for active infections) and we've been absolutely buried the last several weeks. Too much to realistically catch up on here, but I hope you and yours are healthy and safe.

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, biodork said:

Oh hai

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Eleven

[Stoner]

This is for Swampy. I just opened this thread. Before I went to bed last night, the Welcome Back theme song popped up on YouTube, seemingly randomly.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

3 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

This is for Swampy. I just opened this thread. Before I went to bed last night, the Welcome Back theme song popped up on YouTube, seemingly randomly.

It's on TV almost every day...

https://youtu.be/dwxADKA2tsE

[shrader]

On 7/21/2020 at 8:07 AM, North Buffalo said:

Fla about to pass NY in total cases in approximately 6 days... Cali 3 days... TX... 14 days

Sorry I’m late on this one, but are we really surprised that the three states with more people than New York will have more cases than New York? If anything, it just shows how bad that initial rush in cases was. 

[North Buffalo]

3 hours ago, shrader said:

Sorry I’m late on this one, but are we really surprised that the three states with more people than New York will have more cases than New York? If anything, it just shows how bad that initial rush in cases was. 

Yes and No... No given your point... yes because you would have thought they understood how NY got it under control and followed suit.  Even NY needs to be careful not to drop the ball...

[Weave]

Interesting report in the Wall Street Journal today.  The usual influenza wave in the southern hemisphere doesn't appear to be taking shape.  Assumption is that all of the protective measures for COVID is resulting in the influenza virus not getting an opportunity to get  foothold.  Could be good news for later this year in the US.  If we stay diligent with masks and distancing maybe there isn't an influenza outbreak this season to compound COVID.

 

I'd link it but it is paywalled.

[darksabre]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

Interesting report in the Wall Street Journal today.  The usual influenza wave in the southern hemisphere doesn't appear to be taking shape.  Assumption is that all of the protective measures for COVID is resulting in the influenza virus not getting an opportunity to get  foothold.  Could be good news for later this year in the US.  If we stay diligent with masks and distancing maybe there isn't an influenza outbreak this season to compound COVID.

 

I'd link it but it is paywalled.

That should make all the anti-vaxxers happy lol

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, Weave said:

If we stay diligent with masks

What country do you think this is?

[Taro T]

10 hours ago, North Buffalo said:

Yes and No... No given your point... yes because you would have thought they understood how NY got it under control and followed suit.  Even NY needs to be careful not to drop the ball...

NY definitely improved their handling of the virus in May.  That likely had a large impact in reducing deaths.  It also very likely had an impact on slowing the spread of the virus.  But the question is whether NYC had approached the "herd immunity" threshold by then and the follow on is was that a larger factor in getting the disease under control?

Initially experts expected we'd need to see at least 70% of the population exposed and maybe even 80%+ to reach herd immunity effectiveness thresholds.  But there are indications that "burnout" of the virus spread may come with as little as 20-30% exposure.  (Which would be great news if that's actually the case.)  If the herd immunity effect can be realized at only 20% exposure, then that could be what helped so much here downstate.

Interestingly, since the end of May, we've seen similar behaviors in Los Angeles and in NYC.  (Both in behaviors that would be expected to limit transmission & those that at a minimum wouldn't be expected to limit transmission.)  One didn't really see a 1st wave in March/April & 1 did.  The one that didn't is getting hit hard now and the other isn't getting hit hard.

The current hotbeds fortunately MIGHT be reaching / have reached the peaks of their infections.  If they have, and absolutely we should hope they have, then there may be something to that 20-30% threshold.  We should know if they've peaked within the next 2 - 3 weeks.

IF they are at their peaks AND NYC doesn't get that dreaded 2nd wave (desperately hoping they don't, btw) we'll likely see other areas that haven't been hit hard yet have their own 1st waves.  (And unfortunately that includes much of upstate NY.)  But that would be OK most likely as our medical professionals know so much more about this & how to protect the most vulnerable than they did in March when NYC hot hit hard.  It also would have an upside as we'd know that we can have a lot of society opened back up & understand what the signs would be that particular areas need to buckle down for 6 or so weeks.

Unfortunately there seems to be no seasonality to this (good call on that Weave) but if herd immunity is more readily obtained than 1st feared that would/will be huge.  Hoping the worst is behind us.