COVID-19

[shrader]

2 hours ago, SDS said:

Trust me. He’s not using that figure in any meaningful way. But I would like to know what possibly use that figure could be.

I guarantee to you that there are people who think the death rate constantly sighted is that ratio your friend is using. It really is important to see both numbers and know what each means. 

[LTS]

19 hours ago, shrader said:

I guarantee to you that there are people who think the death rate constantly sighted is that ratio your friend is using. It really is important to see both numbers and know what each means. 

Just as its important to know how each number being used in any part of an equation was arrived at.  Knowing that there are assumptions going into many of the numbers being used brings into question where those assumptions fall on the scale from pulled out of thin air or derived from well known information.

I'm still firmly in the camp that there isn't enough information to be certain but limit exposure and risk and you'll likely do okay. 

Edited July 4, 2020 by LTS

[Weave]

Finished up a pretty good sized project today.  Had to make a Home Depot run.  Today was the first time I became genuinely angry at the people around me.  About 25% of the people in the store were maskless.  Ridiculous.  I gor fed up enough that I finally made a comment in the checkout line.  Mr. Maskless in front of me didn’t respond.  
 

Arrogant SOBs that find their convenience more important than public safety.  Just go out and about wearing a T shirt with a big middle finger on it, because you’re basically doing the same thing when you go into enclosed public places without a mask.  FU too.

[North Buffalo]

I want one that says Wear a Damn Mask... Save A Life...

Edited July 5, 2020 by North Buffalo

[PerreaultForever]

On 7/3/2020 at 1:31 PM, SDS said:

I have a high school friend who lives in Florida who routinely talks about the death rate being less than 0.1%. He barely passed high school and came up with that number by dividing the number of deaths in Florida by the total number of people in Florida. 

The stats are all updated here and you can calculate death rates from them. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Without getting my calculator out it looks like the U.S. death rate is a little under 5 %.   That's the rate of death among those who get the virus. You get those super low numbers if you include all the population who don't have it (yet) and that's kind of meaningless. 

Edited July 5, 2020 by PerreaultForever

[LTS]

19 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The stats are all updated here and you can calculate death rates from them. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Without getting my calculator out it looks like the U.S. death rate is a little under 5 %.   That's the rate of death among those who get the virus. You get those super low numbers if you include all the population who don't have it (yet) and that's kind of meaningless. 

Well, it's those that are known to have had the virus right?  Given that people can have it and remain aysymptomatic means that the rate is likely lower than that 5% number. How much lower?  Well, that's anyone's guess at this point.

[Andrew Amerk]

On 7/4/2020 at 6:01 PM, Weave said:

Finished up a pretty good sized project today.  Had to make a Home Depot run.  Today was the first time I became genuinely angry at the people around me.  About 25% of the people in the store were maskless.  Ridiculous.  I gor fed up enough that I finally made a comment in the checkout line.  Mr. Maskless in front of me didn’t respond.  
 

Arrogant SOBs that find their convenience more important than public safety.  Just go out and about wearing a T shirt with a big middle finger on it, because you’re basically doing the same thing when you go into enclosed public places without a mask.  FU too.

This sounds like the family of 6 that was behind me at Dollar Tree tonight. None of them had masks, and they were all standing within inches of me at the register - despite a sign at the door that said everyone is required to wear a mask, and signs showing where to stand at checkout. 
 

They clearly didn’t care, and the poor teenager cashier wasn’t gonna enforce anything. When I said something to them, I was ignored. 

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, LTS said:

Well, it's those that are known to have had the virus right?  Given that people can have it and remain aysymptomatic means that the rate is likely lower than that 5% number. How much lower?  Well, that's anyone's guess at this point.

There are a number of different death rates, but the most relevant for purposes of comparing states or countries is Covid deaths per unit of population (which I think is usually 1MM).

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, LTS said:

Well, it's those that are known to have had the virus right?  Given that people can have it and remain aysymptomatic means that the rate is likely lower than that 5% number. How much lower?  Well, that's anyone's guess at this point.

I suppose you can argue it that way, but it's still a lot of dead people. Too many, and compared to most other countries the U.S. is doing a really bad job.Your ICUs are stretched to the max, ours have gone back to normal, or even lower than normal levels. An overstretched healthcare system will also lead to more negative outcomes. That's your bigger problem now I think. 

[Stoner]

Based on antibody studies and some of the testing they've done on groups of people who aren't sick, there's an estimate of 20 million Americans having been infected (CDC, Dr. Redfield). That would make the death rate around .65 percent. Better, but still 6.5 times more deadly than the flu.

However, the number of deaths is also thought to be undercounted.

We're never gonna know for sure.

[Stoner]

It'll be interesting to watch the number of deaths later this week. Reporting from Saturday, Sunday is always lower, and today probably will be, too, given the holiday weekend. If we can get through the next little while without an uptick, it'll be a very good and interesting development.

[Weave]

24 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

It'll be interesting to watch the number of deaths later this week. Reporting from Saturday, Sunday is always lower, and today probably will be, too, given the holiday weekend. If we can get through the next little while without an uptick, it'll be a very good and interesting development.

With all of the talk of debilitating and long term health issues related to COVID infections, I’m really curious to see numbers describing the incidence of non-fatal but serious complications.  
 

Add those numbers to death rates and this thing might look even more serious than it already looks.

[JohnC]

On 7/4/2020 at 6:01 PM, Weave said:

Finished up a pretty good sized project today.  Had to make a Home Depot run.  Today was the first time I became genuinely angry at the people around me.  About 25% of the people in the store were maskless.  Ridiculous.  I gor fed up enough that I finally made a comment in the checkout line.  Mr. Maskless in front of me didn’t respond.  
 

Arrogant SOBs that find their convenience more important than public safety.  Just go out and about wearing a T shirt with a big middle finger on it, because you’re basically doing the same thing when you go into enclosed public places without a mask.  FU too.

The Home Depot in Maryland that I go to requires masks to enter and they limit the number of people in the establishment at one time. Maryland and the county I live in require masks for indoor activities. What I noticed at this particular Home Depot is that it had to post a security person at the entrance in order to enforce the mask rule. This individual ignorance and selfishness is getting tough to tolerate. 

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

With all of the talk of debilitating and long term health issues related to COVID infections, I’m really curious to see numbers describing the incidence of non-fatal but serious complications.  
 

Add those numbers to death rates and this thing might look even more serious than it already looks.

Great point. It's not like it's either a turdburger or the grave.

[Stoner]

56 minutes ago, JohnC said:

The Home Depot in Maryland that I go to requires masks to enter and they limit the number of people in the establishment at one time. Maryland and the county I live in require masks for indoor activities. What I noticed at this particular Home Depot is that it had to post a security person at the entrance in order to enforce the mask rule. This individual ignorance and selfishness is getting tough to tolerate. 

I'm envious. In PA, what I've heard is that the mask mandate is impossible to enforce. People can claim they have medical conditions that prevent them from wearing a mask, right down to mental illness, which could be something as common as anxiety about covering your mouth. And no documentation is needed. I'll say this. The mask wearing has picked up a lot as cases have spiked in the south and west. It's weird how we tie ourselves to what's happening in distant places, rather than maintaining a position of, "We don't have a lot of cases here, let's keep it that way."

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

With all of the talk of debilitating and long term health issues related to COVID infections, I’m really curious to see numbers describing the incidence of non-fatal but serious complications.  

I wish there was data on this point. Maybe there is?

I know of 5 people who've had COVID-19. Four of them had fairly mild symptoms and all seem to have made a full recovery. The fifth is having a hell of a time -- it's going on 8+ weeks and he's still not close to being right. Never had to be hospitalized, but he just can't seem to kick it.

[LTS]

12 hours ago, nfreeman said:

There are a number of different death rates, but the most relevant for purposes of comparing states or countries is Covid deaths per unit of population (which I think is usually 1MM).

Comparing states and countries also means comparing how each government has done with testing and awareness.  While you might be right in stating it's the MOST relevant, I don''t know that it's supported enough to make it actually relevant.

12 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I suppose you can argue it that way, but it's still a lot of dead people. Too many, and compared to most other countries the U.S. is doing a really bad job.Your ICUs are stretched to the max, ours have gone back to normal, or even lower than normal levels. An overstretched healthcare system will also lead to more negative outcomes. That's your bigger problem now I think. 

It's a lot of dead people. It's an virus with high transmission rate.  The extent to how many will contract it and how it will impact them is unknown. There are a few theories that come into play, and where people fall on them is wide ranging.

1. You will be exposed to this virus.  It's not a question of if, but when.

2. Your ability to fend off the virus is a mix of your access to qualified medical care and your overall health and predisposition to this particular virus.

Somewhere in that mix of statements there's the concept that some people are going to die to this virus, regardless of healthcare treatment and anything short of self-isolation. There are others who will be permanently impacted, and others who will have known they had it.  This is reasonable and is part of life.  We can't save everyone.  Do not equate that statement to saying we should not try to save everyone.

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

I wish there was data on this point. Maybe there is?

I know of 5 people who've had COVID-19. Four of them had fairly mild symptoms and all seem to have made a full recovery. The fifth is having a hell of a time -- it's going on 8+ weeks and he's still not close to being right. Never had to be hospitalized, but he just can't seem to kick it.

This is a great example and many others abound.  This virus is doing so many different things to different people in different ways that it's still hard to predict any outcome.  Reading this morning about a large group of scientists and researches publishing a statement to the WHO advising them to revise their stance on aerolization of COVID and its ability to linger in the air for hours and travel far more than 6 feet. 

Bottom line, more research gets us closer, but I feel like we've a long way to go before know enough for anyone to accurately predict what will happen and what is "safe".  I use quotes because "safe" will vary by person.

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

I'm envious. In PA, what I've heard is that the mask mandate is impossible to enforce. People can claim they have medical conditions that prevent them from wearing a mask, right down to mental illness, which could be something as common as anxiety about covering your mouth. And no documentation is needed. I'll say this. The mask wearing has picked up a lot as cases have spiked in the south and west. It's weird how we tie ourselves to what's happening in distant places, rather than maintaining a position of, "We don't have a lot of cases here, let's keep it that way."

The mask rule is actually simple to enforce if the rules are clear and unambiguous with few exceptions. And it needs to originate from the state government with the force of the law/regulations behind it. If you allow exceptions then you are sabotaging the efficacy of the law. If in the very rare case that there is a legitimate medical reason not to wear a mask then a doctor's note should be required. That would stop most of the fakers from trying to skirt the mask rule. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

The Premiers of the four Atlantic Provinces have very quickly gone from doing a great job to ***** idiots.

On July 3rd they opened up the "Atlantic Bubble" and allowed residents of the four atlantic Canadian provinces to freely travel within them without self-isolating for 14 days.  

Since then all four provinces have gone from zero cases for at least 3 weeks to several new cases.  ***** brilliant.

On top of that our illustrious Premier of NS has said that border service agents will not be turning away cars with US plates on them.  

Like Dude, WTF!!  You just signed all of our death warrants.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Not to make light of this whole pandemic and all, but I must say that I find women wearing masks to be very mysterious and rather sexy, kind of like a veil.

Well, one woman anyway.

[spndnchz]

One of the things I miss is seeing a person’s facial expression. Should take an eye translator class.  

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

The mask rule is actually simple to enforce if the rules are clear and unambiguous with few exceptions. And it needs to originate from the state government with the force of the law/regulations behind it. If you allow exceptions then you are sabotaging the efficacy of the law. If in the very rare case that there is a legitimate medical reason not to wear a mask then a doctor's note should be required. That would stop most of the fakers from trying to skirt the mask rule. 

They have HIPAA on their side.

[Eleven]

18 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

One of the things I miss is seeing a person’s facial expression. Should take an eye translator class.  

One of the best ways to tell whether someone is smiling genuinely is to look at the person's eyes.

[That Aud Smell]

17 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

One of the things I miss is seeing a person’s facial expression. Should take an eye translator class.  

Very true.

Someone at work was pitching me on a theory/approach to a problem, and I thought my non-verbals were conveying my strong skepticism. Not so much, it turned out. I had to jump in after I realized my cues were not being picked up.

[JohnC]

3 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

They have HIPAA on their side.

I'm not sure how it applies in this mask scenario? As an example if you have children and the school system requires  you to have proof that they have the required vaccinations you have to provide the school with the medical documentation.