COVID-19

[freester]

22 hours ago, Doohickie said:

As expected, the re-opening of Texas has resulted in a surge of Covid cases.  Here in Tarrant County, our curve was looking pretty good.  We had a peak of new cases the first week in May that was attributed to adding local prison cases to the county's numbers.  That week we had 1119 new cases.  But then they dropped off to 735, 544 and 531 in the weeks following.  As the reopening caught up to us though, number of new cases started rising:  659 last week, and with 4 days counted this week we're already at 667.  If you extrapolate that out over a full week we could end up as high as 1167 which would be an all-time high for the county. 

It's ironic that the state reopened the first week in May; that's when we had the most new cases.  There was no reason to reopen:  No reductions thresholds were reached; in fact things were still rising.  After a brief interlude where cases dropped off for a couple weeks, the effects of re-opening have been seen, and they're not good.  It sure didn't help that our governor merely "suggested" mask use.  I don't go out much, but when I do, I see perhaps a slight majority of people wearing masks properly.  The rest, maybe a third of people or so, don't wear them at all, or don't wear them properly.  And at this point lots of people aren't even considering 6 feet spacing.

Add in the protests, and things look like they may get quickly out of control.

It's not a good time.

Number of cases is not that helpful a statistic. . It is the percentage of positive cases that is more useful. Also death rate and number of hospitalizations are helpful in tracking progress. 

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

@Doohickie -- it's important to remember that the new case numbers are inevitably going to rise as testing becomes more widespread.  I think the more important numbers are virus-related deaths and hospitalizations.  It will be important to evaluate any changes in those figures pre- and post-reopening (with a time lag adjustment as I think it takes about 2 weeks on average for the virus to cause debilitating health effects).

Daily new cases have been dropping steadily since early April, but only from just over 30,000 to just over 20,000 a day, and there's been little progress since Memorial Day. Daily new deaths have been dropping, but you'd expect to see that level off soon. Big picture is that the curve was flattened, but the notion that it was going to almost peter out over the summer seems like wishful thinking right now.

freester's right about the positivity rate. The CDC issued its weekly report yesterday, and it showed that the percentage of tests done in the country since the previous report had gone up, if slightly (6% to 6.3%). The increase was driven by four of 10 surveillance regions: Northeast, Southeast, South Central and Pacific Northwest.

[Weave]

I had to go to Home Depot this AM to get a project done at home.

We’ll  be Locked down again.  The state relaxes standards and social distancing goes right out the window.  I swear the people have the attention span of a hyper active dog. 
 

Squirrel!

[FogBat]

I’m still going to wear my mask in public and limit my time in places other than home and my truck.

Speaking of which, the nationwide Emergency exemption for FMCSA/DOT due to the virus expires tomorrow.

[Sabel79]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

I had to go to Home Depot this AM to get a project done at home.

We’ll  be Locked down again.  The state relaxes standards and social distancing goes right out the window.  I swear the people have the attention span of a hyper active dog. 
 

Squirrel!

I left work at midnight last night, drove past one of the busier nightlife areas of my town to get to the highway.  It's like nothing happened.  Every place packed, people all over the place and each other.  

I doubt we'll be locked down again though.  Everyone will be left to fend for themselves, with predictable consequences.  It's like we as a country just shrugged and stopped caring. 

Interestingly enough, schools here in VA are going to start out at 25% capacity in the fall, meaning 1 day a week and then online the other four for at least the first quarter.  So it's not like we don't know any better.

[Stoner]

Sabel, I could tell you almost exactly when most of this country shrugged, but my post would just get sent to LTS Land.

[Indabuff]

22 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Sabel, I could tell you almost exactly when most of this country shrugged, but my post would just get sent to LTS Land.

Lousy Troublesome Sabres?

[Huckleberry]

I'm just waiting on a spike from all the protesting in Europe.   Actually pissing a lot of people of that have been following the rules very strict.

[freester]

One of my liberal friends who attended a bunch of protests was just diagnosed with Covid. Prior to the protests he worked from home and was very good about social distancing. Scary.  

[5th line wingnutt]

https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed/

[SwampD]

18 minutes ago, 5th line wingnutt said:

https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed/

Thank god.

[Weave]

My wife is getting tested now.  Upper respiratory symptoms. Feels OK otherwise.

[Stoner]

2 hours ago, 5th line wingnutt said:

https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed/

I got this far. It smells a little fishy.

Quote

The general population was locked and placed in horror-alert....

 

[Eleven]

3 hours ago, SwampD said:

Thank god.

Until you actually read it.

[SwampD]

14 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Until you actually read it.

Why? Should I be surprised that we got wrong what we have never seen before? They got Jersey pretty spot on, just not the duration. And some of the predictions were pre-lockdown.

And I'm someone who did a complete 180 on this. I went from thinking this was complete hysteria knowing that it could have been WAY worse,... and still may be. Not sure we should be counting our chickens just yet.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

Why? Should I be surprised that we got wrong what we have never seen before? They got Jersey pretty spot on, just not the duration. And some of the predictions were pre-lockdown.

And I'm someone who did a complete 180 on this. I went from thinking this was complete hysteria knowing that it could have been WAY worse,... and still may be. Not sure we should be counting our chickens just yet.

Yeah, some people who were big doubters from the start are going to climb all over themselves to say “SEE!!!  I told you so!”

But if you are comparing what has happened to worst case projections or projections of what may happen without any social distancing measures, and projections that were made with very little available information about the methods and ease of spread, then it makes sense that the projections were high.

Plus, as you said, this isn’t over yet.  The news is talking about the “2nd wave” coming now that places are reopened, but this is actually still the first wave. What’s going to happen in the fall?

So, it does feel a bit like rushing to judgment.

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

Why? Should I be surprised that we got wrong what we have never seen before? They got Jersey pretty spot on, just not the duration. And some of the predictions were pre-lockdown.

And I'm someone who did a complete 180 on this. I went from thinking this was complete hysteria knowing that it could have been WAY worse,... and still may be. Not sure we should be counting our chickens just yet.

Science journal articles don't use adverbs and metaphors like this one does.  There's something up, here.  It absolutely does not read like a scholarly piece.

When I looked at the "about us" page, I learned a little.

And, like you, I thought this whole thing was a joke at the beginning.  Like Hope Solo and Zika.

 

[SwampD]

48 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Science journal articles don't use adverbs and metaphors like this one does.  There's something up, here.  It absolutely does not read like a scholarly piece.

When I looked at the "about us" page, I learned a little.

And, like you, I thought this whole thing was a joke at the beginning.  Like Hope Solo and Zika.

 

5th line wingnutt is nothing if not consistent.

[nfreeman]

My son and I got haircuts today.  Halle-freakin-lujah. 

It had been close to 4 months since my last one.  I think that’s the longest I’ve ever gone in my life without a haircut.  

[SABRES 0311]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

My son and I got haircuts today.  Halle-freakin-lujah. 

It had been close to 4 months since my last one.  I think that’s the longest I’ve ever gone in my life without a haircut.  

Should post a before and after.

[Stoner]

5 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

Should post a before and after.

His profile pic is the before.

[#freejame]

We’ve been open here in SC since May 1 I believe. Everything is honky-dory during the week at stores and restaurants/bars. Then, come the weekend, flocks of folks from highly infected northern states come down to enjoy our privilege. This has been going on since Memorial Day weekend. 
 

I’ve never seen things so busy over the weekends. Anecdotal but the majority of folks I’ve been speaking to are from out of state trying to have a good time. I’m not surprised to see us having more cases, and I’m excited to spread it back throughout the country when we’re locked down but NY isn’t because “they followed the rules.” At the end of the day, it’s just the fault of the dumb southerns anyway. 

[Ogre]

While I’m here I’ll leave this. It’s the OSHA guidelines for protecting workers from Covid in the workplace. @LTS, this is a finalized version of the draft that I had posted before and didn’t work for you. 
 

Had it been made a standard it would be law but the road to get a new standard on the books is long and has many lobbyists along the way. I’m guessing if pandemic level spread of this virus continues then it may survive the journey.
 
https://www.ebglaw.com/content/uploads/2020/03/Summary-of-OSHA-Guidance-on-Preparing-Workplaces-for-COVID-19-200316-1.pdf

 

[Ogre]

So the mask thing has perplexed me. This video is new. It’s going into my bag of tricks for the classroom.

If you don’t want to wear one for the good of your fellow human, at least do it to save the economy and in doing so, you’re own ass. 
 

Thanks!

https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/facemask-video-airflow-coronavirus/507-8e08883d-c5c3-40a1-872a-0b65cb46a53f

[darksabre]

I've been back in the office for a couple weeks and we have to wear a mask when we get up from our desk. I had to wear one while getting a haircut yesterday. It's all a complete non-issue to me. In fact it's going to be weird when we eventually go back to not having to wear masks. I'm used to it.