2020 Off-season gameplan

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Ugh.

This is by Lance Lysowski. It's opinion, and it I don't care for much of it. Anyway:

--Botterill likely will be retained because COVID.

--The team's "core" is already set.  (WHAT?!)

--The Sabres need to bring back Girgensons (?!) and Larsson.

--Krueger won't have much of a role on draft day.

--Sabres might have to keep Hutton.

--Sabres should draft a forward and not a defenseman in the first round.

--Cap isn't likely to increase; Sabres aren't likely to be major players in FA.

--Sabres are likely to lose Montour in FA.

He does have an incredible grasp of the obvious, but I also laughed at we have to bring back Girgensons.  The case for keeping Larsson is excellent, but I don't see any case for keeping Girgensons at this point, but with Asplund, Lazar and others perfectly capable of playing a 4th line energy role.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

LL is right about one of Montour or Risto being traded this off-season to upgrade the forwards.  However, I would expand that list to Miller and McCabe also.  

That's not what 11 wrote.  He didn't state Montour could get traded in the off season, he said "Sabres are likely to lose Montour in FA."  They are not the same, and the question was why would they let him walk or why would he get an unmatchable offer sheet.

[Eleven]

15 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Have exceeded the # of free articles and don't want to clear cookies to get around that.  Any particular reason he expects Montour to walk as a FA?  He's an RFA this year and won't be THAT expensive.

He cited some site that projects Montour at 3 yrs $5M and thinks the Sabres can't swing it.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

That's not what 11 wrote.  He didn't state Montour could get traded in the off season, he said "Sabres are likely to lose Montour in FA."  They are not the same, and the question was why would they let him walk or why would he get an unmatchable offer sheet.

But that isn’t what LL said.  He said Montour may command a big contract (3 years at 5 mill) for a D who doesn’t fit RK’s system.  He doesn’t say we will lose Montour, who is an RFA. He then goes on to say that Jbot will need to move a salary to help get the team what it needs with Risto being the most likely candidate.  He also said earlier that Montour (who RK played on the wrong side) and Risto did nothing last season to enhance their trade value.  From these statements, I interpreted LL to be implying that Montour and Risto where our most likely trade pieces on D.  

[Eleven]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

But that isn’t what LL said.  He said Montour may command a big contract (3 years at 5 mill) for a D who doesn’t fit RK’s system.  He doesn’t say we will lose Montour, who is an RFA. He then goes on to say that Jbot will need to move a salary to help get the team what it needs with Risto being the most likely candidate.  He also said earlier that Montour (who RK played on the wrong side) and Risto did nothing last season to enhance their trade value.  From these statements, I interpreted LL to be implying that Montour and Risto where our most likely trade pieces on D.  

A two-sentence quote never brought about a copyright suit:  "While the Sabres are likely to commit to Reinhart long-term, it's uncertain Montour has a future on the roster. Evolving Hockey projects him to receive a three-year deal worth $4.98 million per season, a high price for a defenseman who doesn't fit Krueger's system. "

Looks like I went overboard by saying that the Sabres are "likely" to lose him.

Edited May 11, 2020 by Eleven

[sabremike]

That article was just so sad to read: this team has been put in a terrible position by the incompetence of management to the point they'd need a magician to get us out of it. Instead the guy who put us in that situation is going nowhere and will instead be expected to get us out of the Grand Canyon sized hole he himself is responsible for.

[Curt]

6 hours ago, Eleven said:

A two-sentence quote never brought about a copyright suit:  "While the Sabres are likely to commit to Reinhart long-term, it's uncertain Montour has a future on the roster. Evolving Hockey projects him to receive a three-year deal worth $4.98 million per season, a high price for a defenseman who doesn't fit Krueger's system. "

Looks like I went overboard by saying that the Sabres are "likely" to lose him.

Sabres won’t “lose him in free agency” though.  They could trade him if they think he will be too expensive, but he is an RFA and Sabres hold his rights.

That being said, I personally think the idea that Montour will be too expensive or cost $5M per year is nonsense.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Sabres won’t “lose him in free agency” though.  They could trade him if they think he will be too expensive, but he is an RFA and Sabres hold his rights.

That being said, I personally think the idea that Montour will be too expensive or cost $5M per year is nonsense.

I agree.  He did nothing last year to earn that kind of contract.

[dudacek]

Also wonder about the statement “doesn’t fit Krueger’s system” 

I assume that was about his production dropping off over what it was in Anaheim?  Because in terms of use, he was the 2nd-highest blueliner in ice time. Krueger used him consistently over Miller, Joki, McCabe and (PP notwithstanding) Dahlin.And, for what it’s worth, even though his Corsi was below average, he led the team in +/-  
Being +13 on a minus team in reasonably heavy usage doesnt show some success in his role?

Semi-related, what should I take from the fact Montour had a good Corsi in Anaheim and a bad one in Buffalo? He’s one of those players that some analytics watchers raved over a few years back and hate now. It’s an example of why I treat possession numbers like I treat +/-: they are interesting, they tell you something about how a player performed, but it’s a mistake to rely on them as an arbiter of “bad” and “good”

Edited May 11, 2020 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

I disagree with LL that he doesn’t fit RK system.  On paper he should be a perfect fit.  

The real issue was RK’s playing Montour on the wrong side. I don’t blame RK for this.  He had little choice, but it did hamper Montour’s stats.

[mjd1001]

14 hours ago, Eleven said:

Ugh.

This is by Lance Lysowski. It's opinion, and it I don't care for much of it. Anyway:

--Botterill likely will be retained because COVID.

--The team's "core" is already set.  (WHAT?!)

--The Sabres need to bring back Girgensons (?!) and Larsson.

--Krueger won't have much of a role on draft day.

--Sabres might have to keep Hutton.

--Sabres should draft a forward and not a defenseman in the first round.

--Cap isn't likely to increase; Sabres aren't likely to be major players in FA.

--Sabres are likely to lose Montour in FA.

I'm not that upset by it..

-Botterill?  I thought he was going to be back anyway.

-Core set?  Depends on what you mean by 'core'. Eichell, Reinhart, Skinner, Dahlin, and Oloffson is your core..then I get it.

-Girgensons and Larsson back?  I have NO problem with that if their salary is reasonable.  They, with Okposo, make up an average-to-above average 4th line.

-Sabres might keep Hutton?  Eh, whatever. if he plays 25 games or less, oh well.

-going to lose Montour? once again whatever..if he stays good, if not...oh well.

[thewookie1]

New plan:

Trade the 7th Overall and a 4th in 2021 for Cirelli's RFA rights; sign him at 6x6mil

Sign RFAs

Reinhart 6x7mil

Ullmark 3x2.9mil

Pilut 1x1mil

Olofsson 4x4mil

Kahun 2x1.85mil

Trade Hutton for Brandon Sutter(1 mil retained)

Trade RFA rights to Montour and Thompson and our 5th to MIN for PIT's 1st, MIN's 4th, their 2021 7th, and Foligno(1 mil retained)

Sign UFAs

Larsson 2x2.25

Elliot 2x2.15

1.25mil Cap Penalty included sneaks us in with 24k capspace

 

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

Olofsson - Cirelli - Johansson

Kahun - Cozens - Sutter

Foligno - Larsson - Okposo

 

Dahlin - Miller

Pilut - Risto

McCabe - Jokiharju

 

Ullmark

Elliot

 

Extras:

Asplund, Ruotsalainen and Borgen

 

At years end we would recoup more than 12 mil from our UFAs to help re-secure Dahlin and Jokiharju

 

What do you guys think?

 

 

 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I think this is a very honest and reasonable lineup suggestion.  My biggest issue is your contracts for Larsson and Kahun.  Kahun is proven a 30-40 pt NHL player.  He could sign a 1 year deal as your suggest and look for a bigger deal in a year, but if lock him up for more then a year it's going to take 3+.  Larsson is also going to be in demand.  We'll be lucky to retain him for 2.25.  2.75 is much more likely.

I do like getting Foligno back.   Also I'd rather have Kahun on the 2RW.

[dudacek]

Risto for Domi?

To me, they have similar value. Same age and the contracts work (Domi will get paid this summer, Risto has two years left). Risto has produced more relative to his position, but Domi has that one big year. Each has an edge and is prone to brain farts and is properly slotted as a second-tier player. Each meets a need.

Your mileage may vary.

Edited May 17, 2020 by dudacek

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Risto for Domi?

To me, they have similar value. Same age and the contracts work (Domi will get paid this summer, Risto has two years left). Risto has produced more relative to his position, but Domi has that one big year. Each has an edge and is prone to brain farts and is properly slotted as a second-tier player. Each meets a need.

Your mileage may vary.

I like it. Domi also seems like a pain to play against and we could use a little of that. Domi has adequately played centre, and recently, correct? Because me being good with that swap, if there's only one big one coming (whoever we move Risto/TBA for, I guess) is contingent on the player coming back being a capable C. 

Edited May 17, 2020 by Thorny

[freester]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Risto for Domi?

To me, they have similar value. Same age and the contracts work (Domi will get paid this summer, Risto has two years left). Risto has produced more relative to his position, but Domi has that one big year. Each has an edge and is prone to brain farts and is properly slotted as a second-tier player. Each meets a need.

Your mileage may vary.

Domi has Type 1  diabetes. This puts him at higher risk for morbidity related to Covid. He’s undersized and I would rather trade them Montour instead of Risto.  

Edited May 17, 2020 by freester

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I like it. Domi also seems like a pain to play against and we could use a little of that. Domi has adequately played centre, and recently, correct? Because me being good with that swap, if there's only one big one coming (whoever we move Risto/TBA for, I guess) is contingent on the player coming back being a capable C. 

Domi has mostly been a winger over his pro career, but Is a natural centre and I believe he mostly played there During his big year. He could certainly be a 2C but he lacks the defence to be a great one.

He is a prick on the ice and I get a sense he might be one off the ice too. Takes bad penalties and will make selfish decisions.

But he’s also a talent and certainly upgrades our top six. I see it as one flawed talent for another To address needs. I prefer Risto, but I understand I am in the minority and you gotta pay to fill that gaping hole.

[thewookie1]

Someone on HF proposed 

Risto

Johnson

our 2020 2nd

To ANA for

Henrique(1mil retained)

Max Jones

Jacob Larsson

and their 5th

 

I don’t mind it, Henrique is a very consistent 40 to 50 point guy, stays healthy, scores big goals, and while his contract would end when he’s 34/35 the retention puts him under 5mil per year.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Someone on HF proposed 

Risto

Johnson

our 2020 2nd

To ANA for

Henrique(1mil retained)

Max Jones

Jacob Larsson

and their 5th

 

I don’t mind it, Henrique is a very consistent 40 to 50 point guy, stays healthy, scores big goals, and while his contract would end when he’s 34/35 the retention puts him under 5mil per year.

Is Larsson considered an upgrade on Johnson? I honestly don't know.

Their draft pedigree is similar. Larsson can play now, but would have to be exposed in the expansion draft.

We need some of what Jones has, but he's bit of a putz and hasn't really developed yet. I wouldn't give up a second for him, even though that might be fair to some.

And I certainly wouldn't give up Risto for Henrique, but maybe I'm in the minority on that.

[Thorner]

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Kahun - Johansson

Vesey - Cozens - Thompson

Simmonds - Larsson - Okposo

(Mittelstadt/Lazar)

Dahlin - Jokijarju

McCabe - Ristolainen

Miller - Montour

Ullmark

Hutton

- - - 

Sobotka, Girgensons, Sheary, Rodrigues gone. Kahun, Simmonds, Thompson, Cozens in. I highly doubt Botterill makes no moves, but this is an approximation of the line-up sans real 2C add. I would assume failing that Botterill brings in a mid-6 winger or 2, but without being able to guess who that might be (realistic suggestions?) I'll go with a redux of Johansson/Johansson equivalent. Same with someone like Vesey. 

It'll be really important to sign Larsson, or any small C talent increase we see, assuming Botterill doesn't make the big one, would likely be offset. 

How many points in 20-21?

Edited May 30, 2020 by Thorny

[Curt]

19 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Simmonds - Larsson - Okposo

Simmonds is RW, no?

If these are the players I was given, and Kahun had to be 2C, I’d probably go.

Skinner-Ike-Reino (these guys used to be ok)

Vesey-Kahun-Johansson (this line was good if I remember right)

Olofsson-Cozens-Simmonds

Lazar-Larsson-Okposo

With the bottom 6 getting equal ice time.  Thompson and Mitts start in Roch.  I thought Thompson was still waiver exempt because of # of games played or something?

 

[Thorner]

31 minutes ago, Curt said:

Simmonds is RW, no?

If these are the players I was given, and Kahun had to be 2C, I’d probably go.

Skinner-Ike-Reino (these guys used to be ok)

Vesey-Kahun-Johansson (this line was good if I remember right)

Olofsson-Cozens-Simmonds

Lazar-Larsson-Okposo

With the bottom 6 getting equal ice time.  Thompson and Mitts start in Roch.  I thought Thompson was still waiver exempt because of # of games played or something?

 

The line-up is what I think they’ll do, not what I necessarily would do. Don’t see why they’d have a problem playing Simmonds on the left as a right shot, considering they been playing left shots on the right wing since Botterill got here. Even in your version you have right shot Lazar on the left. 

And I think he’s determined to have Thompson in there. In the end, Thompson/Lazar is the only player switch between our line-ups. Then, Olofsson and Vesey switching spots (after you swapped Olofsson and Skinner).

I probably won’t watch the first game if Jimmy frigging Vesey is in the top 6. That would be an insult to the fans haha. 

Edited May 30, 2020 by Thorny

[freester]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

Simmonds is RW, no?

If these are the players I was given, and Kahun had to be 2C, I’d probably go.

Skinner-Ike-Reino (these guys used to be ok)

Vesey-Kahun-Johansson (this line was good if I remember right)

Olofsson-Cozens-Simmonds

Lazar-Larsson-Okposo

With the bottom 6 getting equal ice time.  Thompson and Mitts start in Roch.  I thought Thompson was still waiver exempt because of # of games played or something?

 

Thompson can’t go to Rochester without passing waivers so he’s definitely on the team. I don’t want Simmons or Vesey. I would rather resign Lsrsson and Girgensons. Mitts belongs in Rochester. Johansson belongs on 3rd line LW

[dudacek]

There was some debate about roster flexibility under the cap due to all our free agents.

I don’t think it will be a problem. Here’s a roster I was able to come up with that adds a big ticket free agent and a 2C and still has $3 million to play with in case you think I underestimated some contracts.

 

• I signed Pietrangelo for 8.4 over 7 making him the 4th highest paid D in the league.
• I traded Reinhart, Montour and Hutton to the Flames for Monahan and Bennett. (Hutton was a cap dump mostly, but FlAmes do need a backup)
• I signed Talbot cheap to replace Hutton. Buyers UFA market for backup goalies so it shouldn’t be hard to fill.
• I re-signed Larsson, but if he’s looking to fly the coop there are cheap similar options out there like Cody Eakin.
• I went for bridge deals for Kahun and Olofsson, basing Victor’s on what Sam got and Kahun as less.
• And I gambled by lowballing Linus, allowing him to walk to UFA in two years, or re-sign a big extension next summer.
• Bottom spots filled by cheap young contracts. Ruotsalainen and Mitts could also be in the mix.

I think the trade and the contracts were pretty reasonable values, and there is money to spare if needed.

I’m not necessarily saying this is what I would do, or Botterill should do, just pointing out that he has the opportunity to dramatically remake this roster If he has the ability to make it happen.

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

There was some debate about roster flexibility under the cap due to all our free agents.

I don’t think it will be a problem. Here’s a roster I was able to come up with that adds a big ticket free agent and a 2C and still has $3 million to play with in case you think I underestimated some contracts.

 

• I signed Pietrangelo for 8.4 over 7 making him the 4th highest paid D in the league.
• I traded Reinhart, Montour and Hutton to the Flames for Monahan and Bennett. (Hutton was a cap dump mostly, but FlAmes do need a backup)
• I signed Talbot cheap to replace Hutton. Buyers UFA market for backup goalies so it shouldn’t be hard to fill.
• I re-signed Larsson, but if he’s looking to fly the coop there are cheap similar options out there like Cody Eakin.
• I went for bridge deals for Kahun and Olofsson, basing Victor’s on what Sam got and Kahun as less.
• And I gambled by lowballing Linus, allowing him to walk to UFA in two years, or re-sign a big extension next summer.
• Bottom spots filled by cheap young contracts. Ruotsalainen and Mitts could also be in the mix.

I think the trade and the contracts were pretty reasonable values, and there is money to spare if needed.

I’m not necessarily saying this is what I would do, or Botterill should do, just pointing out that he has the opportunity to dramatically remake this roster If he has the ability to make it happen.

I just can't trade Reinhart, he's Jack's friend and I really don't want to take away all of his teammates he's close with. 

My other question is how do we fit Dahlin and Joki's contracts in next year? The cap is unlikely to go up by much if any amount.

Edited May 31, 2020 by thewookie1