2020 Off-season gameplan

[freester]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So how do we improve the team and spend only 70 mill.  It’s going to be very difficult.  We are going to need some young forwards to step up and make a difference like VO did last season.  

This Internal cap likely means Cozens and Thompson make the team.  Z and Larsson are gone.  One of Montour or Risto will be traded.  All this to afford to re-sign the RFAs and get a 2c.  I can see someone like Simmons being signed to a vet minimum deal to add some depth.  They could also be forced to try 1 year deals with the RFAs 

Hopefully not Simmonds. I think we are stuck with current goaltending since no one will take Huttons contract. I think we keep #8 and Cozens and Tage start. Probably 2 of the RD are traded to acquire a 2C. Sam is the biggest issue. He will want big money. I hope they don’t trade him. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here are the numbers

NHL Forwards under contract - 4 - Eichel, Skinner, KO and MoJo - Cost 29.5 mill

NHL Defense under contract - 5 - Risto, Miller, Dahlin, McCabe and Joker - Cost 13.975 Mill

NHL Goalies under cotnrat - 1 - Hutton - Cost 2.75 mill

sunk cost (CoHo's buyout) - 791K

Cap already used up on 10 players - 48,291,667.

That leaves 21.7 mill for 12 players if TP sticks to a 70 mill budget.  

RFAs: Lazar, , Kahun, Reinhart, Thompson, VO, Mitts, Montour and Ullmark

Kids who could fight for a roster spot: Cozens (894K), Ruotsalainen (925K), Aspund (845K), Borgen (864K) and maybe Bryson (889K). 

So who are the next 12 Sabres?  I'm going to assume Risto stays and Montour goes.  Lets call it cap certainty.  I'm also going to assume Lazar (800k), Kahun (2.75 mill), Ullmark (3.5 mill), VO (3.5 mill) & Reinhart (6.5 mill) are re-signed for about 18 mill.  That gives us 15 (8F, 5D, 2G)players for 66,300,000.  Add Thompson (900K), Bryson (889K) Cozens (894k) to get to 19 players for 69,000,000.  Anyone know where we can get a 2C for $1 mill?  Maybe Asplund plus one of Mitts or our top draft pick also makes the team and we get to 21 players for nearly 71 mil using the assets already here. 

Lineup

Skinner Eichel Reinhart

VO Kahun Thompson

MoJo Cozens KO

Asplund Lazar Mitts

McCabe Risto

Dahlin Joker

Bryson Miller

Ullmark Hutton

If this is the direction we are headed, then the season is over before it starts.  https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/how-sabres-gm-kevyn-adams-could-navigate-a-lower-budget-for-next-season/article_93e97d62-f453-11ea-a6bb-37c4c46bd196.html  Lance tries to paint a prettier picture by assuming (hoping) that the RFAs take their qualifying offers.  Not likely.  Reinhart, Lazar, Kahun, VO and Ullmark all have arbitration rights.  Good luck getting them agree to the qualifying offers.

Another way we can save some money to allocate elsewhere is trade Colin Miller.  This makes room for Borgen and Bryson to play the 3rd pairing.  Obviously at 70 mill our depth would be a joke, but given our rink manager GM and newly penny pinching owner, I think the joke is on us the fans.

Edited September 13, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here are the numbers

NHL Forwards under contract - 4 - Eichel, Skinner, KO and MoJo - Cost 29.5 mill

NHL Defense under contract - 5 - Risto, Miller, Dahlin, McCabe and Joker - Cost 13.975 Mill

NHL Goalies under cotnrat - 1 - Hutton - Cost 2.75 mill

sunk cost (CoHo's buyout) - 791K

Cap already used up on 10 players - 48,291,667.

That leaves 21.7 mill for 12 players if TP sticks to a 70 mill budget.  

RFAs: Lazar, , Kahun, Reinhart, Thompson, VO, Mitts, Montour and Ullmark

Kids who could fight for a roster spot: Cozens (894K), Ruotsalainen (925K), Aspund (845K), Borgen (864K) and maybe Bryson (889K). 

So who are the next 12 Sabres?  I'm going to assume Risto stays and Montour goes.  Lets call it cap certainty.  I'm also going to assume Lazar (800k), Kahun (2.75 mill), Ullmark (3.5 mill), VO (3.5 mill) & Reinhart (6.5 mill) are re-signed for about 18 mill.  That gives us 15 (8F, 5D, 2G)players for 66,300,000.  Add Thompson (900K), Bryson (889K) Cozens (894k) to get to 19 players for 69,000,000.  Anyone know where we can get a 2C for $1 mill?  Maybe Asplund plus one of Mitts or our top draft pick also makes the team and we get to 21 players for nearly 71 mil using the assets already here. 

Lineup

Skinner Eichel Reinhart

VO Kahun Thompson

MoJo Cozens KO

Asplund Lazar Mitts

McCabe Risto

Dahlin Joker

Bryson Miller

Ullmark Hutton

If this is the direction we are headed, then the season is over before it starts.  https://buffalonews.com/sports/sabres/how-sabres-gm-kevyn-adams-could-navigate-a-lower-budget-for-next-season/article_93e97d62-f453-11ea-a6bb-37c4c46bd196.html  Lance tries to paint a prettier picture by assuming (hoping) that the RFAs take their qualifying offers.  Not likely.  Reinhart, Lazar, Kahun, VO and Ullmark all have arbitration rights.  Good luck getting them agree to the qualifying offers.

Another way we can save some money to allocate elsewhere is trade Colin Miller.  This makes room for Borgen and Bryson to play the 3rd pairing.  Obviously at 70 mill our depth would be a joke, but given our rink manager GM and newly penny pinching owner, I think the joke is on us the fans.

Just a note....you have 15players and you add 3 more for a total of 19. Is this the new math?

In the end you will still need another player.

Sorry, if I ruined it for you.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 9/13/2020 at 2:51 AM, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Just a note....you have 15players and you add 3 more for a total of 19. Is this the new math?

In the end you will still need another player.

Sorry, if I ruined it for you.

You didn't ruin anything and I think you missed the point.  With a $70 budget it will be next to impossible to upgrade this team unless the kids make a huge impact.  

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You didn't ruin anything and I think you missed the point.  With a $70 budget it will be next to impossible to upgrade this team unless the kids make a huge impact.  

I didn't miss the point, I was showing that it was even worse because there needs to be one more player added to your calculations.

[Curt]

I did one of those Capfriendly GM’s.  Made a few, what I consider to be, reasonable trades and signings.  Nothing earth shattering, but just enough to shore up the middle 6.  Feel free to tear it to shreds. 😁

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1917678

Edited September 15, 2020 by Curt
Bad typer, bad, bad

[Curt]

27 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It's pretty much impossible to post a Risto trade scenario on that site and not have someone laugh at the other team's chances of doing it - the online narrative is that he's horrid, not overused. You could suggest trading him for the rights to Jimmy Vesey and people would say Vesey was worth more. 

If the internal cap means they'll spend at around 77 million, your lineup illustrates fielding the type of team we want should be possible. We'd start to get into trouble at lower amounts. 

It also means they have to be willing to move Risto, or whichever D man is going to get the return we need. 

That guy may have been right though.  Depending on if the Penguins are willing to take on a salary like that.

Im not sure what an internal cap looks like or what the FA agent market is going to look like.  Someone like Borowiecki could be signing for $950,000 instead of $1.6M.  All of my RFA #s could be $500K to $1M too high.  I’m really not sure, but the impact is probably going to be more than we expect.  Values of draft picks and ELC players is going to be inflated, values of guys due salary deflated.  We may all need to recalibrate our TradeValue-O-Meters.

[dudacek]

Three weeks to the draft. Three weeks to qualifying offers. Four weeks to free agency.

Teams scrambling to plan their rosters with a flat cap and perhaps reduced budgets. No AHL games in sight.

We're finally going to see some action soon.

[DarthEbriate]

48 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Three weeks to the draft. Three weeks to qualifying offers. Four weeks to free agency.

Teams scrambling to plan their rosters with a flat cap and perhaps reduced budgets. No AHL games in sight.

We're finally going to see some action soon.

This is where the fun begins.

[nfreeman]

... but probably not until the end of the Finals, innit?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Recent photo of Kevin Adams with the deadlines and free agency fast approaching

 

[Thorner]

A counterpoint would be that, Adams is aware he merely needs to reach the levels of job performance the previous GM did, so he can't be sweating that much. He's already complied with the biggest thing the Pegulas need compliance regarding. 

[Curt]

27 minutes ago, Thorny said:

A counterpoint would be that, Adams is aware he merely needs to reach the levels of job performance the previous GM did, so he can't be sweating that much. He's already complied with the biggest thing the Pegulas need compliance regarding. 

Just tell the Pegulas that it’s going to take 3 years to implement the new organizational philosophy and get this thing turned around.  That seems to have worked in the past.

[Broken Ankles]

Hot take.  Anthony Cirelli is not worth the 8OA. Let alone 8 +.   I’ve watched most of the Isles & Columbus series and have seen nothing special.  Tampa is driven by their first and fourth lines. Point and Kuch have 25 points each in 18 games, Cirelli has 5.  Thats one more than, yes, you guessed it, Bogo.  Corsi is below average, face offs below 50%, and outside superior play on the PK and good stick work in the defensive zone just not enough O-fence.   If the Cap control is real, I just can’t see them moving a probable starter (on an ELC) in 2021/22 to pay Cirelli $5-6m.   

[Thorner]

Ducky's Mittelstadt for Copp deal leaves us with..

 

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Staal - Cozens

Kahun - Copp - Thompson

Girgensons - Lazar - Okposo

...looks pretty good, no? If we have Larsson instead of Lazar, I can't imagine even a single team would look forward to matching up against that C lineup. A Copp type addition should be realistically attainable at a fair cost. 

 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ducky's Mittelstadt for Copp deal leaves us with..

 

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Staal - Cozens

Kahun - Copp - Thompson

Girgensons - Lazar - Okposo

...looks pretty good, no? If we have Larsson instead of Lazar, I can't imagine even a single team would look forward to matching up against that C lineup. A Copp type addition should be realistically attainable at a fair cost. 

 

Especially if Larsson were back, that's a legit NHL forward lineup.

[Marvin]

34 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ducky's Mittelstadt for Copp deal leaves us with..

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Staal - Cozens

Kahun - Copp - Thompson

Girgensons - Lazar - Okposo

...looks pretty good, no? If we have Larsson instead of Lazar, I can't imagine even a single team would look forward to matching up against that C lineup. A Copp type addition should be realistically attainable at a fair cost. 

Larsson in there too?  That can't be the Sabres -- there are 4 legitimate NHL lines.  Oh, wait -- new GM...

[Shootica]

43 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Especially if Larsson were back, that's a legit NHL forward lineup.

To me, a Copp acquisition means Larsson walks.  He'd have much better opportunities elsewhere to show what he's got than riding our fourth line.

That being said, I'm questioning my judgement after today.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Shootica said:

To me, a Copp acquisition means Larsson walks.  He'd have much better opportunities elsewhere to show what he's got than riding our fourth line.

That being said, I'm questioning my judgement after today.

Have come around to acceptance that the Sabres will lose Larsson.  But, on a day when we see the Sabres swap a 3rd line W on a 1 year deal for a 2C on a 1 year deal; hey, anything's possible.

[dudacek]

Damn, this Staal trade makes building a roster so much easier.

Here's one to pick apart:

1. sign our young RFAs and Lazar to their qualifiers
2. sign Kahun (2.4) and Olofsson (3.7) and Ullmark (3.3) to bridge deals
3. sign Sam for 5 years (6.5) backload the deal
4. sign Mikael Granlund to 5 years (5.5) backload the deal
5. sign Derek Forbert for one year (1.3)
6. trade Brandon Montour and a 5th for Andrew Copp and a 2nd

 

DEPTH CHART

• Skinner Eichel Reinhart
• Olofsson Staal Granlund
• Kahun Copp Okposo
• Asplund Cozens Thompson
• Dahlin Risto
• McCabe Jokiharju
• Forbert Miller
• Ullmark
• Hutton
• Spares: Lazar/Borgen

 

That roster comes in with a cap hit of under $75 million and an actual payroll of less.

Edited September 17, 2020 by dudacek

[Thorner]

Does Grandlund play RW? I'd be happy to add him regardless, even if i'd prefer at least 1 right shot on the second line. He'd be a solid add, and another we wouldn't give up assets for. 

5 years 5.5 is probably too much for me though. I like the idea of adding someone like Jesper Fast, UFA instead. He's projected (note - these were before covid, but should give us a rough idea) https://dobberhockey.com/2020/02/20/capped-prediction-model-for-free-agents/ to make significantly less, and he may provide the same value. 

A Skinner - Staal - Fast 2nd line would likely wreak havoc. 

Edited September 17, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

37 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Does Grandlund play RW? I'd be happy to add him regardless, even if i'd prefer at least 1 right shot on the second line. He'd be a solid add, and another we wouldn't give up assets for. 

5 years 5.5 is probably too much for me though. I like the idea of adding someone like Jesper Fast, UFA instead. He's projected (note - these were before covid, but should give us a rough idea) https://dobberhockey.com/2020/02/20/capped-prediction-model-for-free-agents/ to make significantly less, and he may provide the same value. 

A Skinner - Staal - Fast 2nd line would likely wreak havoc. 

Capfriendly lists him as RW.

Lots of ways you can go, and you can probably make a roster that's better and cheaper, particularly if Adams can make more deals like this.

My point was mostly to show that we can now replace Larsson, add a top-six forward, still stay within a reduced budget and end up with a more competitive team.

I really like the idea of backloading any long-term deals in order to keep the budget down this year, yet still stay in the market. I suspect a lot of teams will try to structure deals that way.

 

Edited September 17, 2020 by dudacek

[Gabrielor]

@sabresparaavida

 

Is that super-trade dead?

[sabresparaavida]

45 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

@sabresparaavida

 

Is that super-trade dead?

I haven’t asked yet, but I think it would be reasonable for it to be. The trade would push Staal down to 3c, so...🤷‍♂️.

The lineup post “super-trade” if it did happen would be something like:

skinner-Eichel-Cozens?

acquisition-acquisition-Olofsson 

kahun-Staal-Thompson?

4th line 

[LGR4GM]

So Ehlers and Copp for Montour and Reinhart. Guess I am missing a sweetner in there from Winnipeg.