2020 Off-season gameplan

[JohnC]

17 minutes ago, Shootica said:

I think that group is missing a center, but I agree that it is the framework for a productive third line.  Put a Copp-esque center between two of them and move the other to a different line, and it's a stark improvement from our past 3rd lines.

Big caveat there is that it all falls apart without finding a proper 2C and 3C.

As you indicate, and everyone else does, finding a genuine 2C is the priority for the front office. And there is an assumption that Cozens will either be the second or third center in another year or so. 

[Shootica]

18 minutes ago, jsb said:

I'm going to take a slightly different take and say we just need a temp 2C to get by and to be patient. Yes I know patience isn't a good word around here anymore but in 2 years I believe we're going to have a 4 lines of.....

Skinner-Jack-Sam. A formidable 1st line

Casey-Cozens-Tage. Size-Skill-Youth

Olofsson-8OA-Kahun. Another relative young line with skill and speed

??-Temp 2C-Okposo

Dahlin-Joki-Risto/Montour on the backend. 

Patience Grasshoppers Patience

 

To me, it all comes down to if we project Cozens as a long-term center or wing.  I've heard people say both, and I haven't seen him play enough to judge myself.

If we see him as a center, I wholeheartedly agree.  Let's find a cheaper stopgap 2C, either someone on an expiring contract or someone who can easily slide down to 3C in a year or so.

If we see Cozens as a wing, that's when I'd say it's worthwhile to break the bank or trade serious assets for a bonafide 2C.

[Zamboni]

I see Cozens as a winger (assuming he makes the team) in the upcoming season. With him dipping his toes at center a few games here and there.

 

Then the following season maybe he becomes a full-time center.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

Great read about Granlund....

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2020/09/08/mikael-granlund-brings-everything-the-sabres-want/

[Shootica]

2 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Great read about Granlund....

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2020/09/08/mikael-granlund-brings-everything-the-sabres-want/

Solid stats perspective.  I think the article comes across a little too narrow focused on his analytics and some bits seem suspect, but I do like the idea of Granlund at the right price.  7 years at $6.5 seems rich though.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

34 minutes ago, Shootica said:

Solid stats perspective.  I think the article comes across a little too narrow focused on his analytics and some bits seem suspect, but I do like the idea of Granlund at the right price.  7 years at $6.5 seems rich though.

So does the $8.75M for Sam.

[Zamboni]

Just now, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

So does the $8.75M for Sam.

Who the heck is saying 8.75 for Sam? I haven’t seen one person say that or agree that that’s the going rate. I probably missed it so please show me that.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

4 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Who the heck is saying 8.75 for Sam? I haven’t seen one person say that or agree that that’s the going rate. I probably missed it so please show me that.

Go to the link and read it. I believe he used Evolving Hockey.

I believe that Pronman's projection is close to that, IIRC.

Edited September 9, 2020 by MakeSabresGrr8Again
Add info

[In The Buff]

Yeah the 8.75 has been used a lot by the "expert" sources online.

Evolving-Hockey projects he will sign an eight-year deal worth $8.75 million.

[Shootica]

16 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

Who the heck is saying 8.75 for Sam? I haven’t seen one person say that or agree that that’s the going rate. I probably missed it so please show me that.

Evolving Hockey's most probable projection for Sam is 8 x $8.75.  They have 5 x $6.89 as the second most likely term.

To those who are unfamiliar, Evolving Hockey calculates a projected AAV for each possible contact length (1-8 years for Reinhart), and then independently determines the likelihood of a contract at each length.  So their algorithm determined that Reinhart is most likely to get an 8 year deal, followed by a 5 year deal.  And those numbers are their estimated contract AAV at those lengths.

[thewookie1]

 

17 minutes ago, Shootica said:

Evolving Hockey's most probable projection for Sam is 8 x $8.75.  They have 5 x $6.89 as the second most likely term.

To those who are unfamiliar, Evolving Hockey calculates a projected AAV for each possible contact length (1-8 years for Reinhart), and then independently determines the likelihood of a contract at each length.  So their algorithm determined that Reinhart is most likely to get an 8 year deal, followed by a 5 year deal.  And those numbers are their estimated contract AAV at those lengths.

At those numbers I'd do a 5 year deal.

Maybe 6x7mil would work as well.

Reinhart is a great player, just not 9mil great. (Neither is Skinner for that matter)

[Rasmus_]

Granlund has not been the same player that he was in Minnesota.  He's going to be an interesting target, but he's more of a LW, than a center.  IMO. 

[Zamboni]

Yea. I’ll predict that’s sooo not happening. I can see Sam at around 6.5 to 7.5. for 5 - 8 years. Of course there’s a difference between projection and prediction and reality. So I guess we’ll see what happens…

[Shootica]

I would definitely expect most contracts this year (and most likely next) to fall short of Evolving Hockey's projections due to the uncertainty around earnings and the salary cap in the near future.  Their model relies heavily on previously signed contracts for comparison purposes, which were all signed with the expectation that the cap will increase year over year.  You can't say the same about this round of free agency.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

18 minutes ago, Shootica said:

I would definitely expect most contracts this year (and most likely next) to fall short of Evolving Hockey's projections due to the uncertainty around earnings and the salary cap in the near future.  Their model relies heavily on previously signed contracts for comparison purposes, which were all signed with the expectation that the cap will increase year over year.  You can't say the same about this round of free agency.

I could see shorter deals in hopes of cashing in later when things are back to normal. Of course, where an RFA would then become an UFA, this might not work well.

[Shootica]

Going back to what @jsb was saying about just needing a temporary 2C, how does everyone feel about Stastny? 

Word is that Vegas is planning on locking up Lehner to a long-term deal, and it seems either Fleury or Stastny will need to be moved to make space (Knights fans seem split on which).  He has one year left at $6.5, and a 10 team NTC which he'd obviously have to waive.

He's older and certainly on the downturn of his career, but I like that idea better than giving a UFA like Granlund too much term.  Bridge the gap to Cozens at 2C, and he'd be off the books when we have to pay Dahlin and Joker.

[In The Buff]

The thing with the Reinhart - Skinner contract situations. Is that you could probably make the argument that Reinhart is the one who most deserves Skinners deal & that Skins deserves Sam's deal.  Plus Sam already accepted a bridge deal last time. Which i may be wrong, but wasnt the perception that he accepted less at the time than what he was worth?

I wonder if that makes it less likely that Sam would be willing to "do it again", if he perceives another bridge deal as being below his market value. Personally I think both are worth around 6.5-7 per, with Sam being more valuable to our team than Skins. But of course you can't look at these things in a vacuum.

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, Shootica said:

Going back to what @jsb was saying about just needing a temporary 2C, how does everyone feel about Stastny? 

Word is that Vegas is planning on locking up Lehner to a long-term deal, and it seems either Fleury or Stastny will need to be moved to make space (Knights fans seem split on which).  He has one year left at $6.5, and a 10 team NTC which he'd obviously have to waive.

He's older and certainly on the downturn of his career, but I like that idea better than giving a UFA like Granlund too much term.  Bridge the gap to Cozens at 2C, and he'd be off the books when we have to pay Dahlin and Joker.

I would consider MAF and Cody Glass in a trade with LV.  MAF is more likely to waive to come to Buffalo as he has a History with Mike Bales.

Stastny is a good option as well if he waives.

His Dad and Uncle were Sabre Killers with the Nordiques.

 

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

I would consider MAF and Cody Glass in a trade with LV.  MAF is more likely to waive to come to Buffalo as he has a History with Mike Bales.

Stastny is a good option as well if he waives.

His Dad and Uncle were Sabre Killers with the Nordiques.

 

Yes please, although I doubt Vegas will include Glass, as he is their top prospect.  Someone will probably take MAF off their hands for Vegas' first-rounder this year. 

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

I would consider MAF and Cody Glass in a trade with LV.  MAF is more likely to waive to come to Buffalo as he has a History with Mike Bales.

Stastny is a good option as well if he waives.

His Dad and Uncle were Sabre Killers with the Nordiques.

Uncles: Peter, Marion, and Anton were brothers.  The other "lines of brothers" who had been in the NHL by then were Bill, Bob, and Barclay Plager of the St. Louis Blues and Doug, Max, and Reg Bentley of the Chicago Black Hawks (Reg only played 11 games, though).

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Yes please, although I doubt Vegas will include Glass, as he is their top prospect.  Someone will probably take MAF off their hands for Vegas' first-rounder this year. 

Insert obligatory Casey Mittelstadt/Cody Glass comparison here (Glass went two picks ahead of Mittelstadt in 2017):

12 points, 39 NHL games, 7 points, 8 AHL games

39 points, 114 NHL games, 25 points, 36 AHL games

Edited September 9, 2020 by dudacek

[Broken Ankles]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Insert obligatory Casey Mittelstadt/Cody Glass comparison here (Glass went two picks ahead of Mittelstadt in 2018):

12 points, 39 NHL games, 7 points, 8 AHL games

39 points, 114 NHL games, 25 points, 36 AHL games

Irrelevant.  How many 'kills" did each have Season 1 thru Season X?

 

Edited September 9, 2020 by Broken Ankles

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Yes please, although I doubt Vegas will include Glass, as he is their top prospect.  Someone will probably take MAF off their hands for Vegas' first-rounder this year. 

I came up with 

Hutton, Johansson our 2020 2nd and 2021 4th 

for

MAF and Stastny

 

 

Hell, add the Risto + a little for Letang and while we will have got older we would certainly have a new bloc of players with a large amount of experience and it would certainly change how the Sabres look.

Edited September 9, 2020 by thewookie1

[jsb]

17 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I came up with 

Hutton, Johansson our 2020 2nd and 2021 4th 

for

MAF and Stastny

We're going to take approximately 13 million in salary from them and give them draft choices??? 🤢🤮

[thewookie1]

11 minutes ago, jsb said:

We're going to take approximately 13 million in salary from them and give them draft choices??? 🤢🤮

 

Technically we take on 7 mil because we send back 7 mil

 

Slight change, MAF has 2mil retained

Edited September 9, 2020 by thewookie1