2020 Off-season gameplan

[Broken Ankles]

  On 8/15/2020 at 2:31 PM, LGR4GM said:

So in 1 to say the coach doesn't like Miller and in your next sentence you mention Risto who the coach does like. Good times. 

Will Borgen is the perfect Dahlin partner if he can get there. 

Also the cost of defense is down but you're proposing trading at least 2. 

Can't believe we're entertaining ecklund rumors now. 

Can't believe we're entertaining ecklund rumors now. 

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Will Borgen cannot play #1 minutes regardless of his pairing.  For the same reasons Risto should not have been put in that position.  

Let me add to my previous list the ‘Clean Slate’  philosophy.  If an advocate, it would be better in the locker room to hear one new voice, and lose three. 

And let me also add, Risto might be the other RD that does stay.  If Joki is the lynchpin on a 2C trade which saves #8 overall, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was moved and Risto kept.  Depends on what their values are outside the organization.   

[steveoath]

  On 8/15/2020 at 3:09 PM, Broken Ankles said:

 If Joki is the lynchpin on a 2C trade which saves #8 overall, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was moved and Risto kept

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I just threw up a little.  ?

[nfreeman]

  On 8/15/2020 at 2:53 PM, Broken Ankles said:

Seemed to work for the Canadians and Shea Weber.  And they don’t even have a Dahlin to supplement that. 

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Well, I think it’s important to remember that the Weber trade allowed the Habs to escape the crippling contract they gave PK.

i would be surprised if someone gave Pietrangelo a fat 6-year deal.  

[Broken Ankles]

  On 8/15/2020 at 3:56 PM, nfreeman said:

Well, I think it’s important to remember that the Weber trade allowed the Habs to escape the crippling contract they gave PK.

i would be surprised if someone gave Pietrangelo a fat 6-year deal.  

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At the time, based on the years remaining to Weber’s contract it was unanimously decided it was a horrible trade by the Canadians.    The savings was only $1m annually AAV but you were committing more years to a player who was 4 years older.   And my point is a 32 year old came in and solidified the blue line.  Ligers argument against Pietrangelo is he is too old at 30.  I disagree.  

[nfreeman]

  On 8/15/2020 at 4:14 PM, Broken Ankles said:

At the time, based on the years remaining to Weber’s contract it was unanimously decided it was a horrible trade by the Canadians.    The savings was only $1m annually AAV but you were committing more years to a player who was 4 years older.   And my point is a 32 year old came in and solidified the blue line.  Ligers argument against Pietrangelo is he is too old at 30.  I disagree.  

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I agree with most of this, but I think liger is right to shy away from giving Pietey a long-term deal.

My point previously that the Habs were willing to take on Weber’s long-term deal in part because it allowed them to escape PK’s deal.  That factor wouldn’t be present for someone giving Pietey a long-term UFA deal.

Now, if a high-quality vet LHD is available at a cheapo price this offseason due to cap/economic conditions?  By all means — although I’m still annoyed that this is a need this team has after watching JB stockpile defensemen for 3 years while neglecting the rest of the team.  

[Broken Ankles]

  On 8/15/2020 at 5:47 PM, nfreeman said:

I agree with most of this, but I think liger is right to shy away from giving Pietey a long-term deal.

My point previously that the Habs were willing to take on Weber’s long-term deal in part because it allowed them to escape PK’s deal.  That factor wouldn’t be present for someone giving Pietey a long-term UFA deal.

Now, if a high-quality vet LHD is available at a cheapo price this offseason due to cap/economic conditions?  By all means — although I’m still annoyed that this is a need this team has after watching JB stockpile defensemen for 3 years while neglecting the rest of the team.  

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I don’t view the Suban/Weber trade as the Canadians attempting to “escape” but rather improve. Subans contract is done next year. 

I guess we still fundamentally disagree about the current status of the D.  Adding a low priced LHD will just give us another #4/5 D-man.  And not change much on the ice, or in the room.  We already have too many 4/5’s.  I understand you don’t want to sign up for a long term deal and  I would prefer a 4-5 years, but this team is missing leadership on the Blueline.  In your scenario Dahlin is paired with some combination of Joki, Risto, Montour or Miller.  I would argue this fails.  Hot take - Sabre’s ice the following next year:

Dahlin/Risto

McCabe/Joki

Low AAV Vet LHD/Miller

They miss the playoffs again. Dahlin needs mentorship. None of these players offer this. Extricate yourself of middling players with contracts that are movable, and replace with proven chops.   Offset the bigger AAV by promoting Borgen. 

[In The Buff]

I wouldn't be against Pietrangelo for the points already mentioned. He would be an added mentor to the group, sort of in the same way as Beane feels its important with the Bills position groups.  And when you talk about changing the culture, he's one piece that can do that. But only way it really works is if its in tandem with other moves. We can't just pick up another RHD, otherwise its Botterillesque.

Lots of rumors floating around, it'll be interesting to see what comes of them.

[dudacek]

  On 8/15/2020 at 6:40 PM, Broken Ankles said:

I don’t view the Suban/Weber trade as the Canadians attempting to “escape” but rather improve. Subans contract is done next year. 

I guess we still fundamentally disagree about the current status of the D.  Adding a low priced LHD will just give us another #4/5 D-man.  And not change much on the ice, or in the room.  We already have too many 4/5’s.  I understand you don’t want to sign up for a long term deal and  I would prefer a 4-5 years, but this team is missing leadership on the Blueline.  In your scenario Dahlin is paired with some combination of Joki, Risto, Montour or Miller.  I would argue this fails.  Hot take - Sabre’s ice the following next year:

Dahlin/Risto

McCabe/Joki

Low AAV Vet LHD/Miller

They miss the playoffs again. Dahlin needs mentorship. None of these players offer this. Extricate yourself of middling players with contracts that are movable, and replace with proven chops.   Offset the bigger AAV by promoting Borgen. 

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There is a lot of sense to adding an elite veteran defenceman who can PK and mentor our pack of youngsters so long as the contract isn’t silly and 2 of our other 4 RD are moved to bolster the lineup elsewhere.

 

[LGR4GM]

  On 8/15/2020 at 6:40 PM, Broken Ankles said:

I don’t view the Suban/Weber trade as the Canadians attempting to “escape” but rather improve. Subans contract is done next year. 

I guess we still fundamentally disagree about the current status of the D.  Adding a low priced LHD will just give us another #4/5 D-man.  And not change much on the ice, or in the room.  We already have too many 4/5’s.  I understand you don’t want to sign up for a long term deal and  I would prefer a 4-5 years, but this team is missing leadership on the Blueline.  In your scenario Dahlin is paired with some combination of Joki, Risto, Montour or Miller.  I would argue this fails.  Hot take - Sabre’s ice the following next year:

Dahlin/Risto

McCabe/Joki

Low AAV Vet LHD/Miller

They miss the playoffs again. Dahlin needs mentorship. None of these players offer this. Extricate yourself of middling players with contracts that are movable, and replace with proven chops.   Offset the bigger AAV by promoting Borgen. 

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The Buffalo Sabres defense was I think 9th in the league last year at shot suppression. 

Dahlin hasn't failed in his first 2 years but will suddenly in his 3rd year after having a 9 month offseason to work on his only real weakness which was his frame, I don't see that happening. 

[LGR4GM]

  On 8/15/2020 at 8:30 PM, dudacek said:

There is a lot of sense to adding an elite veteran defenceman who can PK and mentor our pack of youngsters so long as the contract isn’t silly and 2 of our other 4 RD are moved to bolster the lineup elsewhere.

 

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Pietrangelo will not produce what he did in St Louis for Buffalo because of 2 things. First is that he won't be getting significant pp time because Dahlin can already QB the pp. So that accounts for 40% of his assists. Second is that without significant additions to the top 6 (2 players) there simply won't be enough chances at 5v5 for him either. 

So the real question is are we willing to pay a 31 year old ( he will basically be 31 when our season comes back) for at least 4 years (no way he takes less unless he thinks he can sign a 2 year deal getting through the flat cap and why would he sign here if that were the case) who doesn't have a path to 50 points requiring us to then trade 2 of our RHD in a depressed market? Before someone says "mentoring veteran leadership" why trade Scandella if you want a trusty vet in the room? Why not find someone cheaper? 

Food for thought. 

[dudacek]

  On 8/15/2020 at 10:17 PM, LGR4GM said:

Pietrangelo will not produce what he did in St Louis for Buffalo because of 2 things. First is that he won't be getting significant pp time because Dahlin can already QB the pp. So that accounts for 40% of his assists. Second is that without significant additions to the top 6 (2 players) there simply won't be enough chances at 5v5 for him either. 

So the real question is are we willing to pay a 31 year old ( he will basically be 31 when our season comes back) for at least 4 years (no way he takes less unless he thinks he can sign a 2 year deal getting through the flat cap and why would he sign here if that were the case) who doesn't have a path to 50 points requiring us to then trade 2 of our RHD in a depressed market? Before someone says "mentoring veteran leadership" why trade Scandella if you want a trusty vet in the room? Why not find someone cheaper? 

Food for thought. 

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First thing is we wouldn’t be bringing Pietrangelo in primarily for offensive production, we’d be bringing him in to play Risto’s minutes and role, and be better at it. He doesn’t require us to trade two RD, he allows us to trade two RHD in order to improve areas we’re weak in.

Second thing is Pietrangelo is not Scandella. He is really good, and players of his ilk generally don’t fall off a cliff at 31. I can see he and Dahlin being a legit 2-way first pairing for your four-year period as Rasmus waxes and Alex wanes. Meanwhile, Montour and Risto are leveraged into centres and/or LDs.

I don’t think Pietrangelo would consider coming here, especially at a price that makes sense for Buffalo. 
But purely from a roster-building standpoint, he would be an excellent addition.

Edited August 15, 2020 by dudacek

[Weave]

  On 8/15/2020 at 6:51 PM, In The Buff said:

I wouldn't be against Pietrangelo for the points already mentioned. He would be an added mentor to the group, sort of in the same way as Beane feels its important with the Bills position groups.  And when you talk about changing the culture, he's one piece that can do that. But only way it really works is if its in tandem with other moves. We can't just pick up another RHD, otherwise its Botterillesque.

Lots of rumors floating around, it'll be interesting to see what comes of them.

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Agree with the general sentiment here.  A mentor for a young, future elite defenseman is highly valuable.  I'm in favor of the concept.  Wish Jack had the same.

[Broken Ankles]

  On 8/15/2020 at 10:09 PM, LGR4GM said:

The Buffalo Sabres defense was I think 9th in the league last year at shot suppression. 

Dahlin hasn't failed in his first 2 years but will suddenly in his 3rd year after having a 9 month offseason to work on his only real weakness which was his frame, I don't see that happening.  

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Shot suppression is one statistic.  But they were middle of the pack on many others.  Thirteenth from the bottom In High Danger against.  It’s just not playoff caliber.  Yet. 

  Dahlin  hasn’t (and for good reason - he’s only 20) played a lot against top six players his first two years.  Let me rephrase your question.  Do you think Dahlin will be ready to play 19 ES minutes per game, against a top 6 forwards, and have better results than his first two years?  And I’m referring to defense only. I acknowledge  he will continue to grow offensively.   Because AP can/does.  
 
  Chris Tanev.  He’s a medium priced player who plays that role today.  Hughes is much better because he has a complementary partner.  About the same age as AP.  

 I also acknowledge the fact it would not be preferred to pay $8m+ AAV to a player not playing PP.  Are there better options? Of course.  But most would cost assets.  This theoretical acquisition only costs Cap space.  He checks a lot of boxes.  

[LGR4GM]

  On 8/15/2020 at 11:09 PM, dudacek said:

First thing is we wouldn’t be bringing Pietrangelo in primarily for offensive production, we’d be bringing him in to play Risto’s minutes and role, and be better at it. He doesn’t require us to trade two RD, he allows us to trade two RHD in order to improve areas we’re weak in.

Second thing is Pietrangelo is not Scandella. He is really good, and players of his ilk generally don’t fall off a cliff at 31. I can see he and Dahlin being a legit 2-way first pairing for your four-year period as Rasmus waxes and Alex wanes. Meanwhile, Montour and Risto are leveraged into centres and/or LDs.

I don’t think Pietrangelo would consider coming here, especially at a price that makes sense for Buffalo. 
But purely from a roster-building standpoint, he would be an excellent addition.

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It would force us to. It would absolutely be a requirement to trade a rhd because we would need that cap space and that roster space. 

[dudacek]

  On 8/16/2020 at 1:38 PM, LGR4GM said:

It would force us to. It would absolutely be a requirement to trade a rhd because we would need that cap space and that roster space. 

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I think you missed the point.

[LGR4GM]

  On 8/16/2020 at 1:53 PM, dudacek said:

I think you missed the point.

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I didn't, but you're forcing a scenario where the Sabres have to trade 2 players. I'm sure the returns will be great with teams knowing that. 

[dudacek]

  On 8/16/2020 at 2:12 PM, LGR4GM said:

I didn't, but you're forcing a scenario where the Sabres have to trade 2 players. I'm sure the returns will be great with teams knowing that. 

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I would imagine you’d have the framework of those deals agreed to before you pull the trigger on Pietrangelo.

Not all GMs play chess like Botterill.

[sabremike]

Stop and think: Do you realize just how crazy of an overpay we would have to make to land Pieterangelo? If the dog somehow caught the car it is all but certain we would be regretting it very soon thereafter.

[Thorner]

  On 8/16/2020 at 1:38 PM, LGR4GM said:

It would force us to. It would absolutely be a requirement to trade a rhd because we would need that cap space and that roster space. 

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A year or two ago acquiring a surplus with the need to balance it out would seem completely viable to me. 

  On 8/16/2020 at 2:14 PM, dudacek said:

I would imagine you’d have the framework of those deals agreed to before you pull the trigger on Pietrangelo.

Not all GMs play chess like Botterill.

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Admittedly a little scary now in case Adams is more Botterill 2.0 than Adams 1.0

[Gabrielor]

Watching a lot of the Dallas Calgary series, and Gaudreau is looking to me a lot like Tyler Ennis...

[Broken Ankles]

  On 8/18/2020 at 11:38 PM, Gabrielor said:

Watching a lot of the Dallas Calgary series, and Gaudreau is looking to me a lot like Tyler Ennis...

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And Monahan looking like the 2019 San Diego Padres.  Swing and a miss. 

 

[sabresparaavida]

Thinking about some potential lines out of the roster that we have, with a couple of places for players to fill in. The goal here is to get scoring throughout the lineup, as well as keeping that first line ticking. 

Skinner-Eichel-Thompson (Ideally we bring in another Rw that can replace Thompson)

New top 6 forward (Granlund?)-Cozens-Reinhart (This only works if Cozens looks like he belongs in the NHL. This line should get decent minutes, but probably a little less than a typical 2nd line, and lets our now capable 3rd line out more. My source immediately after the signing mentioned Granlund as a possible target for the Sabres.)

Oloffson-Mojo-Kahun (This line had some success last year and could form a solid 3rd line. Some possible alternatives are Ruotsalainen , Thompson if we add a top6 rw, Mitts if he magically develops. What I like about this line is the potential for any player to play some 2nd line time. That actually looks like a good 3rd line, something we havent seen in a while. We still need a couple players to make it work, especially Cozens not looking lost. 

Asplund-Lazar-Okposo (A whatever 4th line, I'm sure we add a couple forwards which will change how this looks, likely one of asplund/Lazar will be a 13th forward)

 

Pairings:

Dahlin-Miller (seemed to gel somewhat)

McCabe-Jokiharju

xxx-Risto

Montour? (Kinda hoping they move Montour to get a forward, either part of a package for a 2C or a RW)

 

[Gabrielor]

Granlund would be a big mistake. 

Price will be way too high. Not a center. Not a winger with the flavor we need, or enough of a scorer to make up for being the softer flavor.

 

Of all the good stuff you've thrown out, if Granlund is our big move, I'll continue with Botterill-level concern about this franchise.

 

Also, his analytics last year were pretty bad. He doesn't seem to fit the new number-driven approach, or the 'fit'-approach. Hopefully it was an early Adams idea before he actually got numbers and facts on it.

Edited August 21, 2020 by Gabrielor

[sabresparaavida]

  On 8/21/2020 at 12:36 AM, Gabrielor said:

Granlund would be a big mistake. 

Price will be way too high. Not a center. Not a winger with the flavor we need, or enough of a scorer to make up for being the softer flavor.

 

Of all the good stuff you've thrown out, if Granlund is our big move, I'll continue with Botterill-level concern about this franchise.

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That was also something I heard the day after KA was hired, and I hadn't heard anything about it since then. 

[Gabrielor]

  On 8/21/2020 at 12:25 AM, sabresparaavida said:

Thinking about some potential lines out of the roster that we have, with a couple of places for players to fill in. The goal here is to get scoring throughout the lineup, as well as keeping that first line ticking. 

Skinner-Eichel-Thompson (Ideally we bring in another Rw that can replace Thompson)

New top 6 forward (Granlund?)-Cozens-Reinhart (This only works if Cozens looks like he belongs in the NHL. This line should get decent minutes, but probably a little less than a typical 2nd line, and lets our now capable 3rd line out more. My source immediately after the signing mentioned Granlund as a possible target for the Sabres.)

Oloffson-Mojo-Kahun (This line had some success last year and could form a solid 3rd line. Some possible alternatives are Ruotsalainen , Thompson if we add a top6 rw, Mitts if he magically develops. What I like about this line is the potential for any player to play some 2nd line time. That actually looks like a good 3rd line, something we havent seen in a while. We still need a couple players to make it work, especially Cozens not looking lost. 

Asplund-Lazar-Okposo (A whatever 4th line, I'm sure we add a couple forwards which will change how this looks, likely one of asplund/Lazar will be a 13th forward)

 

Pairings:

Dahlin-Miller (seemed to gel somewhat)

McCabe-Jokiharju

xxx-Risto

Montour? (Kinda hoping they move Montour to get a forward, either part of a package for a 2C or a RW)

 

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I gotta be honest, this roster is pretty close to the nightmare scenario. It could only be worse if Eichel got traded.

Cozens at 2C year 1 will get crushed. We have to avoid this at all costs. Grigorenko and Mittelstadt should be enough proof. Granlund will get overpaid. Olofsson is on an interesting line that'll see too many bad matchups. That 4th line would be forced into a LOG role with significantly less talent. Thompson also has the potential to bury that 1st line depending on how far along his speed and awareness is...

On the defense, Miller on the top pair would be a mistake for any longer than an injury sub. 2nd pair is fine. 3rd of Montour-Risto got demolished last year in a short cameo...I can't see it going any better.

 

In short, the forward comps are way worse, the defense made zero change, and no problems were fixed from the previous year...while somehow adding more holes.

Apologies, but this is a top 3 lotto odds roster. 

 

Edited August 21, 2020 by Gabrielor