2020 Off-season gameplan

[Gabrielor]

22 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Cut out the actual info to conserve space lol.

I doubt that Calgary would accept that trade seeing as over on capfriendly they seem to think those two are worth Eichel somehow.

The lightest I could see is

Monahan, Gaudreau and CGY's 1st

for

Reinhart, Montour, Mitts, and BUF's 1st and our 2021 2nd

Effectively CGY moves up at least 9 spots in the draft in that situation.

I did not consider a pick swap....which could be part of that bonus....

Giving up 8 as an addition is unacceptable, but downgrading 8 to teens-20 to make up value difference...that might be something...

 

Regardless, the internet will see the names and be reactionary, but we're assuming more of the risk in this deal, and they're gaining assets to think more long term.

 

Montour Mittlestadt Reinhart (let's say...  + 2nd-2020 + Pilut) for Monahan and Gaudreau is a deal I most likely say yes to, but it isn't instantly. It feels our big hole, but at the cost of a ton of future, and a limited pool of space cap space to fill other holes...

Edited August 12, 2020 by Gabrielor

[WildCard]

4 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

It would be Monahan for 3 years and, most likely, either Gaudreau long-term OR Gaudreau for 1.7 seasons plus what he brings back at the deadline in the 2nd year.  And, if the Sabres improve, there is a pretty decent chance that at least one of them re-signs here.

If Mitts is one of the Sabres' 3 best prospects, we're doomed in any case.  And the #8 pick could just as easily wash out as turn into a good prospect. 

Most importantly, it is pretty close to now or never for the Eichel Sabres.  They have to take real steps this offseason.  And the likelihood of them getting a player as good as Monahan or Gaudreau elsewhere is pretty low -- let alone both of them.

I'm 100% okay with the trade @Gabrielor outlined, if we keep that 8th pick. If Monahan and Gaudreau walk, we won't have anything left to replace them. If they are going to walk, the odds are we won't trade them at the deadline anyways, since the whole point of getting them was to make a run at it, so we aren't going to recoup anything either.

Edited August 12, 2020 by WildCard

[WildCard]

10 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

3 years of Monahan, but yeah.

Keep forgetting that lol but yeah, that does make it better

[Randall Flagg]

Talking about Monahan walking now is a little crazy. You have 3 years to woo him, and if he is still thinking about leaving after 2-2.5of them, it was a flop anyway. 3 years is a good amount of time left on a contract for any trade. The discussion is worth having about johnny, as there may be evidence he is focused on one or two cities in 2 years. But it's still worth a try if we're giving up Reinhart and a first and a pile of meh like Gabrielor suggests 

[dudacek]

Something to consider as well, Gaudreau has a NTC in the last year of contract, so you might really be limited your trade deadline options if he's bound and determined to play in Philly or New Jersey.

A few other things to consider about fanbase player opinions as we play fantasy GM:

• every fanbase has their Cozens and their Jokiharjus (shiny new toys with impossible upsides) and their Drew Staffords and Rasmus Ristolainens (capable NHL players who they've become sick and tired of watching). We exaggerate their flaws and virtues relative to the rest of the league accordingly.
• every fanbase knows the rest of the league primarily through a mixture of stats, highlight packages and message board hype, not actual scouting (think about how the general perception of Sheary and Botterill before they became Sabres actually matched the reality.)
• GMs are privy to relevant information about players and organizations, on and off the ice, that we aren't

Here's an example. Two years ago, this board was talking about Casey Mittelstadt the same way it currently does about Dylan Cozens. Now there seems to be a consensus that he will be lucky to be an NHL player and has nearly zero value in a trade. Fans now talk about how great it would be to get a Cody Glass or a Morgan Frost, players the same age as Casey who have shown less than Casey.

I'm not trying to say anything in particular about Casey, other than his value around the league probably never was as high as we thought it was, and that it probably isn't as low as we think it is. Remember those stories about Tim Murray chasing Evander Kane since he was 16? GMs are playing a long game and have entrenched opinions.

Edited August 12, 2020 by dudacek

[Curt]

I don’t think #8 will be traded.  Almost never happens in NHL and it’s probably unlikely that a new GM trades his first pick.  Much more likely to be included in a trade for NOW assets would probably be the 2021 1st, perhaps with some protection (top 3?) attached.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Curt

[sabremike]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Something to consider as well, Gaudreau has a NTC in the last year of contract, so you might really be limited your trade deadline options if he's bound and determined to play in Philly or New Jersey.

A few other things to consider about fanbase player opinions as we play fantasy GM:

• every fanbase has their Cozens and their Jokiharjus (shiny new toys with impossible upsides) and their Drew Staffords and Rasmus Ristolainens (capable NHL players who they've become sick and tired of watching). We exaggerate their flaws and virtues relative to the rest of the league accordingly.
• every fanbase knows the rest of the league primarily through a mixture of stats, highlight packages and message board hype, not actual scouting (think about how the general perception of Sheary and Botterill before they became Sabres actually matched the reality.)
• GMs are privy to relevant information about players and organizations, on and off the ice, that we aren't

Here's an example. Two years ago, this board was talking about Casey Mittelstadt the same way it currently does about Dylan Cozens. Now there seems to be a consensus that he will be lucky to be an NHL player and has nearly zero value in a trade. Fans now talk about how great it would be to get a Cody Glass or a Morgan Frost, players the same age as Casey who have shown less than Casey.

I'm not trying to say anything in particular about Casey, other than his value around the league probably never was as high as we thought it was, and that it probably isn't as low as we think it is. Remember those stories about Tim Murray chasing Evander Kane since he was 16? GMs are playing a long game and have entrenched opinions.

The problem with Casey: The embarrassingly incompetent GM and Coaches decided to keep the poor kid on the NHL roster when it should've been painfully obvious he didn't belong in the NHL. Instead of sending him to Rochester to work on his game so that he could get to the level expected they basically exposed what was wrong with him by keeping him up for a year and a half. Now there's a great chance they have already wrecked his career before it even began through stupidity. Basically the organizational incompetence destroyed his value.

Edited August 12, 2020 by sabremike

[jsb]

Does anyone really believe the Flames are going to blow it up if they beat the Stars?? Really??

 

[sabremike]

5 minutes ago, jsb said:

Does anyone really believe the Flames are going to blow it up if they beat the Stars?? Really??

 

I am of the belief that this whole rumored trade goes belly up because the other team has playoff success and backs out. 

[WildCard]

23 minutes ago, sabremike said:

I am of the belief that this whole rumored trade goes belly up because the other team has playoff success and backs out. 

This would be so depressing

[JohnC]

49 minutes ago, sabremike said:

The problem with Casey: The embarrassingly incompetent GM and Coaches decided to keep the poor kid on the NHL roster when it should've been painfully obvious he didn't belong in the NHL. Instead of sending him to Rochester to work on his game so that he could get to the level expected they basically exposed what was wrong with him by keeping him up for a year and a half. Now there's a great chance they have already wrecked his career before it even began through stupidity. Basically the organizational incompetence destroyed his value.

Most people agree that Mitts was rushed to the big club when he wasn't ready. However, he was belatedly sent to Rochester where he struggled in the beginning and then seemed to become more comfortable as a player and understand his role. Where I disagree with you is that although he was clearly rushed and not handled smartly from a development standpoint I don't accept that he is so damaged that he will never attain what his talents should/could have taken him as a player. The Casey story is not over with. He still has time to demonstrate or not demonstrate that he can be a functioning NHL player. Right now the onus is on him and no one else to prepare as best he can to be ready to handle the rigors of this demanding league. 

[Flashsabre]

No one even knows if it is Calgary or what players are involved. 

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

No one even knows if it is Calgary or what players are involved. 

Nobody knows anything, we're here to speculate 

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

Something to consider as well, Gaudreau has a NTC in the last year of contract, so you might really be limited your trade deadline options if he's bound and determined to play in Philly or New Jersey.

A few other things to consider about fanbase player opinions as we play fantasy GM:

• every fanbase has their Cozens and their Jokiharjus (shiny new toys with impossible upsides) and their Drew Staffords and Rasmus Ristolainens (capable NHL players who they've become sick and tired of watching). We exaggerate their flaws and virtues relative to the rest of the league accordingly.
• every fanbase knows the rest of the league primarily through a mixture of stats, highlight packages and message board hype, not actual scouting (think about how the general perception of Sheary and Botterill before they became Sabres actually matched the reality.)
• GMs are privy to relevant information about players and organizations, on and off the ice, that we aren't

Here's an example. Two years ago, this board was talking about Casey Mittelstadt the same way it currently does about Dylan Cozens. Now there seems to be a consensus that he will be lucky to be an NHL player and has nearly zero value in a trade. Fans now talk about how great it would be to get a Cody Glass or a Morgan Frost, players the same age as Casey who have shown less than Casey.

I'm not trying to say anything in particular about Casey, other than his value around the league probably never was as high as we thought it was, and that it probably isn't as low as we think it is. Remember those stories about Tim Murray chasing Evander Kane since he was 16? GMs are playing a long game and have entrenched opinions.

Something else to consider, when a player gets traded it is up to the new team to decide whether to honor the NMC/NTC when he comes over.  If a team trades for a player, the team that gets him decides whether or not to honor that clause.  The player has no say in the matter.

Edit: Nevermind.  Apparently that changed w/ the ratification of the new CBA.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Taro T

[rakish]

26 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Something else to consider, when a player gets traded it is up to the new team to decide whether to honor the NMC/NTC when he comes over.  If a team trades for a player, the team that gets him decides whether or not to honor that clause.  The player has no say in the matter.

I'm  going to argue the other side on this. The reason the player loses his NTC is contract law. If you waive a clause in your contract, you don't get to reclaim that power. In this case, the clause was never waived, it hadn't come into existence yet, so he won't lose it when he moves to a different team.

I might be wrong.

[dudacek]

50 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Something else to consider, when a player gets traded it is up to the new team to decide whether to honor the NMC/NTC when he comes over.  If a team trades for a player, the team that gets him decides whether or not to honor that clause.  The player has no say in the matter.

This was changed in the CBA that was signed last month. The clause now stays and transfers with the contract. It’s up to the player whether he or not he wants waive it.

Edited August 12, 2020 by dudacek

[Gabrielor]

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

Nobody knows anything, we're here to speculate 

Yup. That's exactly what I'm in this thread for. 

 

3 hours ago, jsb said:

Does anyone really believe the Flames are going to blow it up if they beat the Stars?? Really??

 

Calgary-winning/trade-killing is a concern to this speculation, which is why I pointed it out on the last line ?

 

[Thorner]

7 hours ago, nfreeman said:

It would be Monahan for 3 years and, most likely, either Gaudreau long-term OR Gaudreau for 1.7 seasons plus what he brings back at the deadline in the 2nd year.  And, if the Sabres improve, there is a pretty decent chance that at least one of them re-signs here.

If Mitts is one of the Sabres' 3 best prospects, we're doomed in any case.  And the #8 pick could just as easily wash out as turn into a good prospect. 

Most importantly, it is pretty close to now or never for the Eichel Sabres.  They have to take real steps this offseason.  And the likelihood of them getting a player as good as Monahan or Gaudreau elsewhere is pretty low -- let alone both of them.

 

I happily cut bait on 1 of our 2 best forward prospects (Mittelstadt) if (aside from the obviously good return) it represents a key step in ensuring the success of the other half of our top forward prospects (Cozens), the much more important cog in our organizational aspirations.

Mittelstadt can help ensure the proper development of Cozens, as a sacrifice to bring in that bonafide, 2C insulation for Dylan.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, WildCard said:

Nobody knows anything, we're here to speculate 

- - - 

@dudacek minor quibble on Morgan Frost, he’s shown less at the NHL level I suppose as he hasn’t had much of a shot yet, but his non-pro league post draft production is significantly better league relative than Casey’s. 

His junior stats post draft remind me more of Reinhart. 221 points in 125 games. Philly is loaded and bringing him along slow, and they have that luxury. 

There was always the question of competition/league with Casey as his dominant statistical seasons were in Minnesota high school hockey. Which seems to be a concerning question at this point as Casey has never, as a prospect, put together a dominant, or even stand-out season in any league outside of high school high. 

His development and production thus far seems to suggest potential 3rd line scoring forward. Which is fine, he still has value. It’s just a case of him being saddled with ill-conceived prospect status from the start. 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

- - - 

@dudacek minor quibble on Morgan Frost, he’s shown less at the NHL level I suppose as he hasn’t had much of a shot yet, but his non-pro league post draft production is significantly better league relative than Casey’s. 

His junior stats post draft remind me more of Reinhart. 221 points in 125 games. Philly is loaded and bringing him along slow, and they have that luxury. 

There was always the question of competition/league with Casey as his dominant statistical seasons were in Minnesota high school hockey. Which seems to be a concerning question at this point as Casey has never, as a prospect, put together a dominant, or even stand-out season in any league outside of high school high. 

Yeah, I’m not trying to make it about Casey and Frost, I have no opinion on who is or will be better.
I’m just using how they were statistically similar prospects, playing in the same leagues, yet are perceived very differently, to make a point about the perception of players in general.

Last year Frost put up 29 points in 41 games in the minors and 7 in 20 NHL games.

Last year Mittelstadt put up 25 points in 36 games in the minors and 9 in 31 NHL games.

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yeah, I’m not trying to make it about Casey and Frost, I have no opinion on who is or will be better.
I’m just using how they were statistically similar prospects, playing in the same leagues, yet are perceived very differently, to make a point about the perception of players in general.

Last year Frost put up 29 points in 41 games in the minors and 7 in 20 NHL games.

Last year Mittelstadt put up 25 points in 36 games in the minors and 9 in 31 NHL games.

D1 is a major indicator for prospect development, though, so I would not agree they are statistically similar prospects, I guess is what I’m trying to say. Frost’s D1 absolutely blew Casey’s out of the water, and that probably factors into the perception. 

Their pro numbers this season were similar, true, but it should be noted this was Morgan’s first experience playing amongst pros, and Casey already had a full year of experience in the NHL.

I’d argue it’s no longer a case of two roughly equal prospects being perceived differently as you are suggesting, Frost is the better prospect.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Thorny

[Thorner]

A big thing that separates Cozens from Mittelstadt, aside from documented D1 development and production, is that there were actually more than a few canaries in the coal-mine deep dive prospect projection lists that were “sounding the alarm” on Mittelstadt right away post-draft, whereas Cozens was grading out high across the board. 

A good deal of Mittestadt’s projection was literally and unfortunately hype-based, and the good news for us is that Cozens’ thus far has been statistically certifiable. 

Casey is about the allure of that raw flash. Again, he’s not a failed prospect. I’m buying your argument that perception factors into how his asset value is being determined. This leads to people wanting to dump him for nothing as you alluded to. 

He has value. He can be another Sheary type guy maybe. 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Thorny

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, Thorny said:

D1 is a major indicator for prospect development, though, so I would not agree they are statistically similar prospects, I guess is what I’m trying to say. Frost’s D1 absolutely blew Casey’s out of the water, and that probably factors into the perception. 

Their pro numbers this season were similar, true, but it should be noted this was Morgan’s first experience playing amongst pros, and Casey already had a full year of experience in the NHL.

LOL. It’s OK to have reasons for liking Morgan better and you’ve made a good case in the past as to how and why Casey got overhyped.
I’m just pointing out some evidence that suggests how the hype pendulum may have swung too far the other way.

Edited August 12, 2020 by dudacek

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Mittelstadt can help ensure the proper development of Cozens, as a sacrifice to bring in that bonafide, 2C insulation for Dylan.

-- You must let go (of prospects).

+ And sacrifice Mittelstadt?

-- If you honor the roster goals: yes!

[Marvin]

And here I was thinking that they might try two different deals for two guys like Strome (prospect and RD) and Domi (requires #8) and use them both at C and see who works out better while slotting Skinner, Reinhart, Olofsson, Johansson, Kahun, Cozens, et al. to slot around Eichel-Strome-Domi.  The 4th line is something like Asplund-Lazar-Okposo as a 4th line.

Edited August 12, 2020 by Marvin, Sabres Fan
fuller explanation