2020 Off-season gameplan

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

The problem is the other GM's are going to come at him with swindling in mind, and he is going to be shaking in his boots when ultimatums are presented to him in terms of trades.  I think because of that, he backs down(in terms of blockbuster moves)...which is probably a better thing than getting taken to the cleaners.

I just hope he's shaking enough that, if you put a pen in his hand he can doodle sign the trade offer for a player of similar talent level to the 2C Murray acquired, as a pretty new GM himself. 

When Colorado came a-swindlin'

Edited August 11, 2020 by Thorny

[LabattBlue]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I just hope he's shaking enough that, if you put a pen in his hand he can doodle sign the trade offer for a player of similar talent level to the 2C Murray acquired, as a pretty new GM himself. 

When Colorado came a-swindlin'

I don't know what his responsibilities were with Ottawa, but he was their AGM for 8 years.

[Randall Flagg]

47 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Love the line up but ya people are underrating the Jets dearth at C.

Them trading Copp for no C in return would be like us acquiring Copp as our main C addition and then trading him for a non-centre.

Yeah, Copp is just like a stylistic mold for what I'm thinking of. 

[sabresparaavida]

58 minutes ago, Thorny said:

If it seems like it’s gonna be a consensus “oh big win!” for Buffalo, I bet those pick/prospect details are not insignificant. 

I don't want to give away much more about the trade, so I will not comment on the significance of the picks/prospects. I will say that just because Sabres fans would be happy with a trade, doesn't mean it's a "big win". There could be even value in a trade, but if It fixes the Sabres biggest problem for 2 straight years (2C), then Sabres fans would be happy.

[Marvin]

36 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

I don't want to give away much more about the trade, so I will not comment on the significance of the picks/prospects. I will say that just because Sabres fans would be happy with a trade, doesn't mean it's a "big win". There could be even value in a trade, but if It fixes the Sabres biggest problem for 2 straight years (2C), then Sabres fans would be happy.

A hockey trade where both teams benefit does not bother me.  If the Sabres dump excess D for someone's surplus F and we get a balanced, competitive team that makes the playoffs and is a real threat to grow into a contender while the other team improves, that should be fine and dandy.

[Thorner]

42 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

I don't want to give away much more about the trade, so I will not comment on the significance of the picks/prospects. I will say that just because Sabres fans would be happy with a trade, doesn't mean it's a "big win". There could be even value in a trade, but if It fixes the Sabres biggest problem for 2 straight years (2C), then Sabres fans would be happy.

Fair enough, and makes sense. 

Just preparing for a bit of that "hurt" that usually comes when acquiring the type of true fixes you are referencing. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

59 minutes ago, sabresparaavida said:

I don't want to give away much more about the trade, so I will not comment on the significance of the picks/prospects. I will say that just because Sabres fans would be happy with a trade, doesn't mean it's a "big win". There could be even value in a trade, but if It fixes the Sabres biggest problem for 2 straight years (2C), then Sabres fans would be happy.

This would eliminate Calgary from what I can see. It opens up some other options that either were/ weren't mentioned.

Just to list a few centers that would have 2yrs on contract....

Stastny, Couturier, Giroux, Kadri, Bozak, Hertl, Barkov, Pavelski, Point, Malkin, Trocheck Zibanejad,  and Jenner.

[Broken Ankles]

2 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

This would eliminate Calgary from what I can see. It opens up some other options that either were/ weren't mentioned.

Just to list a few centers that would have 2yrs on contract....

Stastny, Couturier, Giroux, Kadri, Bozak, Hertl, Barkov, Pavelski, Point, Malkin, Trocheck Zibanejad,  and Jenner.

Stastny has only one year left. 

[Gabrielor]

14 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

This would eliminate Calgary from what I can see. It opens up some other options that either were/ weren't mentioned.

Just to list a few centers that would have 2yrs on contract....

Stastny, Couturier, Giroux, Kadri, Bozak, Hertl, Barkov, Pavelski, Point, Malkin, Trocheck Zibanejad,  and Jenner.

I think you misinterpreted.

The poster likely meant that OUR center problem has existed the last 2 years (OReilly), not that any acquisition would have 2 years left on a deal.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Gabrielor

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

12 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Stastny has only one year left. 

Just testing everyone...lol.

Good catch, thanx.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

I think you misinterpreted.

The poster likely meant that OUR center problem has existed the last 2 years (OReilly), not that any acquisition would have 2 years left on a deal.

I guess you're right... I took it as fixing our problem for 2yrs. 

Game back on.

[sabresparaavida]

11 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

I think you misinterpreted.

The poster likely meant that OUR center problem has existed the last 2 years (OReilly), not that any acquisition would have 2 years left on a deal.

Yup, that's what I meant.

[Thorner]

Watching a player like Bogosian play capable minutes for TBay reminds me that you shouldn’t prioritize addressing “depth” before addressing big-time core/top6/top4 issues. It’s what Botterill tried to do - acquire as much Johansson level depth as possible (liquify ROR to address “team depth”), and hope the competition causes some to elevate. 

Fix the top 6. Depth players fall into place. You end up acquiring depth over time because there are no spots AVAILABLE in your top 6, not because you brought in a bunch of “mid-6” guys to fight for spot that IS available in the upper lineup. 

Furthermore, a player will perform completely adequately in a set up like Tampa, as a depth guy, and a GM will try and bring them in to fill that same depth role here.

Doesn’t work like that - you need to be asking them to provide the same level of depth, ie, behind equal level talent. Botterill clearly expected all his depth additions to match their career highs, with less insulation (even if in the same technical “role”).

Edited August 11, 2020 by Thorny

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, sabresparaavida said:

I don't want to give away much more about the trade, so I will not comment on the significance of the picks/prospects. I will say that just because Sabres fans would be happy with a trade, doesn't mean it's a "big win". There could be even value in a trade, but if It fixes the Sabres biggest problem for 2 straight years (2C), then Sabres fans would be happy.

 

I more fear anything with Calgary since I value Cozens far more than slightly longer rental in Gaudreau and the offensive slanted Monahan 

[kas23]

20 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

 

I more fear anything with Calgary since I value Cozens far more than slightly longer rental in Gaudreau and the offensive slanted Monahan 

I think the length of their contracts is likely the reason why they are willing to even trade them in the first place (and not ask for Cozens). Hopefully they view them as potential longer-term rentals and know they wouldn’t be able to sign them. So, might as well get value for them. 

[Broken Ankles]

4 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

The problem is the other GM's are going to come at him with swindling in mind, and he is going to be shaking in his boots when ultimatums are presented to him in terms of trades.  I think because of that, he backs down(in terms of blockbuster moves)...which is probably a better thing than getting taken to the cleaners.

   An inexperienced card player can obviously be intimidated in a head to head battle in the game of poker.  Bluff, steal pots or put you on tilt.  But in the games where I have dominated or placed in tournaments where there has been better competition,  having good cards was an equalizer.   And good cards in this analogy is the Sabres situation  relative to the Salary Cap and many other teams in the exact opposite position.  Adams should not feel compelled to make a ‘swing for the fence’ type of trade.  It may find him, but I doubt it.  I’m assuming he is placing calls but probably fielding more.  Teams with no room must call teams like DET/BUF/OTT because there just aren’t many others (even in the middle) that can help.  This can create an artificial type of confidence during these one/one discussions.  How many scenarios has SabreSpace  put out there for the 2C alone?  So Treliving wants too much for Monahan? Thanks Brad, gotta go.  I have meetings with Tampa at 1pm and St.Louis at 2pm.  As long as his pro scouts has the right values, he should be fine this offseason.  

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

   An inexperienced card player can obviously be intimidated in a head to head battle in the game of poker.  Bluff, steal pots or put you on tilt.  But in the games where I have dominated or placed in tournaments where there has been better competition,  having good cards was an equalizer.   And good cards in this analogy is the Sabres situation  relative to the Salary Cap and many other teams in the exact opposite position.  Adams should not feel compelled to make a ‘swing for the fence’ type of trade.  It may find him, but I doubt it.  I’m assuming he is placing calls but probably fielding more.  Teams with no room must call teams like DET/BUF/OTT because there just aren’t many others (even in the middle) that can help.  This can create an artificial type of confidence during these one/one discussions.  How many scenarios has SabreSpace  put out there for the 2C alone?  So Treliving wants too much for Monahan? Thanks Brad, gotta go.  I have meetings with Tampa at 1pm and St.Louis at 2pm.  As long as his pro scouts has the right values, he should be fine this offseason.  

Kim really did have a little bit more information than everyone else.. they knew, rather than joked, that Sabrespace could collectively run the team in a capable manner and have been getting 2C ideas from this board. 

- - - 

Really like the good cards analogy. Another, lesser component I like to believe adds a little to that, after the cap stuff you laid out, is the presence of "high pedigree" players, guys with high draft status, that other teams could see as "change of scenery" players. Ala a Mittelstadt 

As long as our talent evaluators are shrewd, (Krueger, Adams?) and identify the proper guys to cash in on, we have the potential for more moves like Botterill's unquestioned best: the move of former 8 overall, A. Nylander, for board fav Jokiharju.  

[DarthEbriate]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

Watching a player like Bogosian play capable minutes for TBay reminds me that you shouldn’t prioritize addressing “depth” before addressing big-time core/top6/top4 issues. It’s what Botterill tried to do - acquire as much Johansson level depth as possible (liquify ROR to address “team depth”), and hope the competition causes some to elevate. 

Fix the top 6. Depth players fall into place.

This is in line with everything the 'spacers have been saying for the last 2+ years. Get that 2C (or heck, a 1B if it were ROR), and all the rest of the forwards from this season fall nearly (not completely, but nearly) into place. Everything in it's right place. Risto on the 2nd pair; Bogo on a third; Johansson on a wing; and on and on. We'd still not be very deep and not a top-tier team, but we'd be trending upward nicely as Eichel/Reino/Dahlin start to escalate.

[Gabrielor]

I've focused in on Calgary as mystery team, and started mocking a potential deal, trying to consider their point of view.

I'm sure they'd want to start this deal with Cozens, but he's off the table for me. Cozens is basically a younger Monahan who's cheaper, has more team control, and could be better than Monahan in the next 24 months. No deal, and hopefully Adams feels the same.

Operating on the assumption that Reinhart is involved, I don't think pick 8 would be part of this, either. Reinhart + 8 is overpaying for anything they'd sent back, considering there's a 100% chance we're also sending Montour or Ristolainen. The kicker then, is expecting Mittelstadt to be in this deal. Perhaps they see him as a talent who was given a bad development path here (not an unreasonable position).

So based on the above, Reinhart, Montour, and Mittelstadt make up the core of this package (they probbably choose Montour over Risto, who I think goes to winnipeg for a Copp package, but that's a story for another time)

 

 

Now for the return...

6.750	6.350	4.850	81.500		Johnny Gaudreau	Sean Monahan	Elias Lindholm
7.000	5.350	2.500			Matthew Tkachuk	Mikael Backlund	Andrew Mangiapane
5.250	2.550	0.778	Total		Milan Lucic	Sam Bennett	Dillon Dube
2.250	3.125	0.000	69.317		Mark Jankowski	Derek Ryan	???
6.750	4.550		12.183		Mark Giordano	Rasmus Andersson
4.950	0.000				Noah Hanifin	???
0.894	0.000				Juuso Valimaki	???
2.750					David Rittich
0.000					???
0.000	0.000	0.000			???	???	???
Buyouts
2.670	0.000	0.000
Waived
IR
IR
LTIR
LTIR

 

Their salary is set up well at the moment, so the logic they'd make this trade on must be wanting a shake-up, needing defense, and wanting more years of control...

Monahan would be our 2C target....as for the winger, it would either have to be Bennett or Gaudreau. Tkachuk is untouchable, and Lindholm has to move to center to make this work for them. I'll predict Gaudreau, because Bennett isn't a T-6-winger, and it would fit the 'exciting' concept. So...

7.000	4.850	6.500	81.500		Matthew Tkachuk	Elias Lindholm	Sam Reinhart
2.550	5.350	2.500			Sam Bennett	Mikael Backlund	Andrew Mangiapane
5.250	1.500	0.778	Total		Milan Lucic	Casey Mittelstadt	Dillon Dube
2.250	3.125	0.700	70.117		Mark Jankowski	Derek Ryan	???
6.750	4.550		11.383		Mark Giordano	Rasmus Andersson
4.950	4.500				Noah Hanifin	Brandon Montour
0.894	0.700				Juuso Valimaki	???
2.750					David Rittich
0.000					???
0.000	0.000	0.000			???	???	???
Buyouts
2.670	0.000	0.000
Waived
IR
IR
LTIR
LTIR

Maybe they'd see  Reinhart as a center? They definitely get a needed piece in Montour who'd be a good fit for them. They'd also get Mittelstadt in a better position to succeed than we had him in.

If Calgary is looking to shake up their roster, Monahan + Gaudreau for Reinhart, Montour, Mittelstadt, (bonus-addition-based-on-playoffs) gives them assets they can position to be in control of longer, and have plenty of cap to chase Taylor Hall, which they were apparently rumored to be considering.

 

On the Sabres' side:

 

9.000	10.000	4.500	81.500		Jeff Skinner	Jack Eichel	Victor Olofsson
6.750	6.375	2.250			Johnny Gaudreau	Sean Monahan	Dominik Kahun
4.500	0.000	0.925	Total		Marcus Johansson	???	Dylan Cozens
0.000	0.000	6.000	72.094		???	???	Kyle Okposo
0.925	0.925		9.406		Rasmus Dahlin	Henri Jokiharju
2.850	5.400				Jake McCabe	Rasmus Ristolainen
0.000	3.875				???	Colin Miller
2.850					Linus Ullmark
2.750					Carter Hutton
0.000	0.000	0.000			Tage Thompson	Will Borgen	???
Hodgson	Salary Penalty
0.719	1.500	0.000
Waived
IR
IR
LTIR
LTIR

 

We gain a 2nd line, but at the cost of putting us on the clock (2 years for Gaudreau, 3 years for Monahan), and leaving little space to fill out the roster.

 

I could be way off on player value or team motivations, but based on what we've heard, this seems like what the plan is, based on my interpretation of the language. (and if I am right, better start rooting hard for the Dallas Stars to win in 5...)

Edited August 12, 2020 by Gabrielor

[nfreeman]

@Gabrielor -- I like it, but I think it's wishful thinking not to include #8 if the Sabres are getting both Monahan and Gaudreau.

If the Flames put those 2 on the block, they will get much better offers than Reino, Montour and Mitts.

My general rule on proposed trades is that if one team's fan looks at a trade and is ready to pull the trigger immediately, then the price is too low. 

[WildCard]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

@Gabrielor -- I like it, but I think it's wishful thinking not to include #8 if the Sabres are getting both Monahan and Gaudreau.

If the Flames put those 2 on the block, they will get much better offers than Reino, Montour and Mitts.

My general rule on proposed trades is that if one team's fan looks at a trade and is ready to pull the trigger immediately, then the price is too low. 

Idk if I'm giving...

2/3rds of my best prospects

and a cost-controlled legit winger

and a top 4 D 

for 2 years of Monahan and Gaudreau

[sabresparaavida]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

@Gabrielor -- I like it, but I think it's wishful thinking not to include #8 if the Sabres are getting both Monahan and Gaudreau.

If the Flames put those 2 on the block, they will get much better offers than Reino, Montour and Mitts.

My general rule on proposed trades is that if one team's fan looks at a trade and is ready to pull the trigger immediately, then the price is too low. 

The interesting thing about the trade @Gabrielor proposed is the dynamic between long and short term. Undoubtedly the Sabres win Short term: Gaurdeau>Reinhart (by a bit, Gaurdeau is more offensively gifted, but Reinhart is more defensively responsible) Monahan>>Montour, and Mitts isn't ready to make up the difference. But long term, if Gaurdeau and Monahan walk, it doesn't look very lopsided. Both Reinhart and Montour would likely be on the Flames longer, and whatever Mitts turns into could be enough for the trade to swing in Calgary's favor.

[thewookie1]

20 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

I've focused in on Calgary as mystery team, and started mocking a potential deal, trying to consider their point of view.

Cut out the actual info to conserve space lol.

I doubt that Calgary would accept that trade seeing as over on capfriendly they seem to think those two are worth Eichel somehow.

The lightest I could see is

Monahan, Gaudreau and CGY's 1st

for

Reinhart, Montour, Mitts, and BUF's 1st and our 2021 2nd

Effectively CGY moves up at least 9 spots in the draft in that situation.

[sabresparaavida]

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Idk if I'm giving...

2/3rds of my best prospects

and a cost-controlled legit winger

and a top 4 D 

for 2 years of Monahan and Gaudreau

3 years of Monahan, but yeah.

[nfreeman]

2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Idk if I'm giving...

2/3rds of my best prospects

and a cost-controlled legit winger

and a top 4 D 

for 2 years of Monahan and Gaudreau

It would be Monahan for 3 years and, most likely, either Gaudreau long-term OR Gaudreau for 1.7 seasons plus what he brings back at the deadline in the 2nd year.  And, if the Sabres improve, there is a pretty decent chance that at least one of them re-signs here.

If Mitts is one of the Sabres' 3 best prospects, we're doomed in any case.  And the #8 pick could just as easily wash out as turn into a good prospect. 

Most importantly, it is pretty close to now or never for the Eichel Sabres.  They have to take real steps this offseason.  And the likelihood of them getting a player as good as Monahan or Gaudreau elsewhere is pretty low -- let alone both of them.