2020 Off-season gameplan

[thewookie1]

I'll middle you two's predictions and say with Ullmark we are likely at 74 points now, either through 3 wins or some combination of wins and OTLs.

 

[Weave]

7 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

You probably soured on eichel at some point and Dahlin as well 

Been critical of, yes.  Soured on, no.  Never was a concern that either of them would be good.  Mitts? I’m concerned enough that I would move him for the right player.

[Randall Flagg]

The thing is that Hutton also played well for a decent chunk of the stretch Ullmark was out. Ullmark isn't so good that you can write in more than 1-3 points in that stretch. People are overestimating the impact one NHL goalie can have over another in just a handful of games, because while Hutton is bad, he wasn't all bad during that stretch, and Ullmark isn't great. I'd argue that Hutton had 9 or 10 games where you can't guarantee Ullmark would be any better, and Johansson had a good one in there as well. 

Adding a bunch of wins is just silly and our team is still flawed enough that that switch wouldn't have made much of a difference 

[LGR4GM]

18 hours ago, Ruff Around The Edges said:

 

I agree on all counts.  can see Rossi going as high as 4 depending on team and fit and need

I was thinking more about this and I think the reason I recoiled at Rossi falling to 9th is that it would drop him a tier and I don't think he will drop that tier. 

[Marty]

I’m a new guy around here, so forgive me if this is a dumb question.

How realistic is it to think we can get a better backup goalie, a good 2c, and maybe a physical defensive defenseman this offseason? Salary cap considerations included.

[Randall Flagg]

5 minutes ago, Marty said:

I’m a new guy around here, so forgive me if this is a dumb question.

How realistic is it to think we can get a better backup goalie, a good 2c, and maybe a physical defensive defenseman this offseason? Salary cap considerations included.

This is a tough, but doable, set of moves. 

It should be Jason's baseline requirement if he is held on, given what he's done for the C and G positions in his 3 years here.

[triumph_communes]

3 minutes ago, Marty said:

I’m a new guy around here, so forgive me if this is a dumb question.

How realistic is it to think we can get a better backup goalie, a good 2c, and maybe a physical defensive defenseman this offseason? Salary cap considerations included.

1. Back-up goalie situation is largely dependent upon whether Botterill is comfortable putting Hutton and his salary in the minors.  He's done this with multiple other players before though.  Plenty of good-enough quality back-ups available in the market I think.
2. If overpaying Granlund in FA isn't your idea of a 'good 2c', then the only option is via trades.  Trading Ristolainen for a 2c is likely Botterill's biggest goal, but hockey trades can be hard.  At least Risto's value has gone up dramatically with his improved play this season.
3. Physical defensive defenseman?  We have Borgen in the system, does he fit?  We have Samuellsson in the system, does he fit?  I don't see us acquiring anyone else.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I was thinking more about this and I think the reason I recoiled at Rossi falling to 9th is that it would drop him a tier and I don't think he will drop that tier. 

Again that happens every year.  Players, allegedly is tier x, fall to tier y or Z. Ask Kavilyev how that feels.  Odds are that if we are drafting 9-10 that one of “top” centers won’t be there, but there is still a very good chance that one might.  I looked at the last 5 drafts and in each draft, but 2016, these is at least one and often two guys who get drafted two tiers above the consensus causing players to slip.

2019 - Dach from 8 to 3, Seider from 17 to 6; 2018 - Kotkaniemi from 9 to 3, Kravtsov from 17 to 9; 2017 - Pettersson 9 to 5, Andersson 14 to 7, Rasmussen 15 to 9; 2016 - Zacha 13 to 6.

[Randall Flagg]

I would maybe replace the defenseman acquisition (though would still welcome it) with finding a 3RW. I don't want Jason messing around with any more Veseys, Shearys, Simmondses, Froliks. 

Skinner - Jack - someone
Olofsson - someone - Reinhart
Johansson - Kahun - someone
a line functionally equivalent to GLO, ideally GLO 
Lazar

I would be happy if Cozens made it to one of those "someone"s. I would like him to attack the other two with no-BS, not-underqualified, definitively good players. Say Cozens makes the team and slots in nicely with Johansson and Kahun. The good thing about the Eichel line there is that we don't need a true 1RW in that spot, as we have a true franchise 1C and a guy who scored 40 next to him on the other side - find a stylistic match. If Florida wants to blow things up, send 'em something for Brett Connolly, so he can bang around and score some goals, win some board battles (playing the Tom Wilson role on the Kuzy-Ovechkin-Wilson line). Maybe we buy low on Josh Anderson and have it pay off instead. That takes care of that spot.

Then, the big move can be a real 2C. I know it's hard. But we can't do a 3rd year in a row without one, and the circumstances leading up to our desparate need have forced Jason into this position, and I expect results. I want Henrique caliber talent at minimum but would like him to go above and beyond. I would put Mitts, a RHD, a first, another first, any other pick, any prospect on the table for this to work. Even a lottery win - that just makes the job easier. You really would tell me that in a cap crunch, Tampa wouldn't give up Cirelli for Mitts and the right to draft Byfield or Lafreniere? Feel free to add on Tampa's end if we end up with a lot of stuff to give up. Cirelli is a placeholder name though, and if we can find the next Cirelli, that'd be great too. Liger likes Morgan Frost. i've heard whispers of Gaudette being pretty good in Vancouver. I have no idea on either of those guys, all I know is that Jason needs to fix it for the 2020-2021 season. 

Skinner - Jack - Connolly-like addition, not 1RW talent, but not out of place in a well-defined role with these two
Olofsson - real 2C - Reinhart - competent second line scoring, I think Olofsson has a lot more room to grow too. Like, 35 goals next year. Better and better at ES. Out of the Eichel spotlight, where he has been excellent in a small sample size. 
Johansson - Kahun - Cozens or a real middle six player coming from Tampa/whoever to balance the massive 2C deal. Genuine 3rd line, Kahun and Mojo already have chemistry. Will provide far more consistent depth scoring than the amalgations of Vesey, Sheary, Berglund/Vlad, Frolik, Lazar, Pouliot, Griffith etc. that we've seen the last few years, as our third lines have essentially been relegated to sheltered fourth lines 
GLO or its functional equivalent, doing what they've done for two years. 

This leaves us down a defenseman, probably a RHD, so I'd look for a smaller move to find a LHD, as I'm not comfortable praying that Pilut is a good second pairing guy and don't want McCabe there. 

Dahlin - Miller/Montour/Risto
xxx - Joki
McCabe/Pilut - Miller/Montour/Risto

With one of Miller/Montour/Risto gone in the 2C deal. Jokiharju and Dahlin will be better versions of themselves, and Pilut could still develop enough to make this easy. But this is where you could look for one of those Miller-type deals for a defenseman of your stylistic preference, to fill things out and have depth like Borgen and Pilut  ready to come up depending on what player gets hurt.

Find a goalie better than Hutton to play with Ullmark. 

The team described requires one big move, on the level of the Trocheck trade that just happened, and that we were in on. It requires one smaller move, for a competent player that stylistically meshes with Eichel, without needing to be a first line talent. It requires one or two ancillary moves for the third line (which could come as salary balancing in the big 2C deal, or could come from Cozens) and then for the defense, each of which wouldn't be very noticable in terms of impact on our net pool of assets. It requires a stable goaltending acquisition for a guy that can play 30-40 games, in a deep year for goaltending free agents.

It's busy, it's tough. But it's doable, and puts us in the race for the 2/3 divisional spots next season. Assuming Jason is staying, this is what I need from him.
 

Edited March 10, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[triumph_communes]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Again that happens every year.  Players, allegedly is tier x, fall to tier y or Z. Ask Kavilyev how that feels.  Odds are that if we are drafting 9-10 that one of “top” centers won’t be there, but there is still a very good chance that one might.  I looked at the last 5 drafts and in each draft, but 2016, these is at least one and often two guys who get drafted two tiers above the consensus causing players to slip.

2019 - Dach from 8 to 3, Seider from 17 to 6; 2018 - Kotkaniemi from 9 to 3, Kravtsov from 17 to 9; 2017 - Pettersson 9 to 5, Andersson 14 to 7, Rasmussen 15 to 9; 2016 - Zacha 13 to 6.

We don't need a center 3 years from now.  Eichel-Trade pickup/Cozens-Mittelstadt/Kahun-Larry or Girgs/Asplund/Pekar

Draft BPA

Edited March 10, 2020 by triumph_communes

[Randall Flagg]

An example going by this guideline: 
Re-sign one of Larry/Zemgus, ideally both
Florida desides they want to break up the core, like Friedman alluded to. Their fans are piling on Dadonov, and I read on their forum that Q might not like him. Maybe it's Connolly instead. Move Asplund and a 2nd, or a different non-Cozens/Mitts prospect, for Dadonov or Connolly. Add if needed
We can't find anyone else for a 2C, and send Risto and Mitts packing to Anaheim for Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg. That's a large trade. Maybe we or they add small pieces.
Sign Justin Braun on short deal in UFA. (I have no idea if he's any good anymore, it can be someone else)
Give Khudobin money

Skinner - Eichel - Connolly/Dadonov
Olofsson - Henrique - Reinhart
Johansson - Kahun - Silfverberg
A type of GLO line

Dahlin - Miller
Braun - Jokiharju
McCabe - Montour
Pilut - Borgen

Ullmark 
Khudobin

I have no idea if this is cap compliant, but we supposedly have it set up to be able to lose all the contracts this summer so we can actually have a transformative offseason like this, so let's see it 



 

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

We don't need a center 3 years from now.  Eichel-Trade pickup/Cozens-Mittelstadt/Kahun-Larry or Girgs/Asplund/Pekar

Draft BPA

Actually we do.  1- BPA doesn’t exist.  2 - If I’m correct and Jbot (or his successor) acquires a 2C to hold down the fort for a few years , when that guys‘ deal expires we are going to need a talented center in the organization to step into the 3C role assuming Cozens is then the 2C.

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Actually we do.  1- BPA doesn’t exist.  2 - If I’m correct and Jbot (or his successor) acquires a 2C to hold down the fort for a few years , when that guys‘ deal expires we are going to need a talented center in the organization to step into the 3C role assuming Cozens is then the 2C.

What?

[GASabresIUFAN]

36 minutes ago, WildCard said:

What?

It doesn’t exist. There is no consensus list of which  prospect is better then others.  If there was why have a draft?  You could simply assign players to teams based on order of finish. 

Each team uses their own list based on their own metrics which may or may not include position or league as a criteria.  To simply say go with BPA is meaningless.

It’s also stupid for any team to rigidly adhere to their list without taking into age, league and position into account. Simply put, it’s hard to develop centers if you don’t draft any.  When Jbot got here, our pipeline had no decent D prospects except Guhle, because TM traded DR’s away without replacing them in the draft.  TM used 7 of 8 1st and 2nd rd picks on forwards.  

By contrast Jbot has used his 7 1st and 2nd rd picks on 3C, 3D and 1G.

Edited March 10, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It doesn’t exist. There is no consensus list of which  prospect is better then others.  If there was why have a draft?  You could simply assign players to teams based on order of finish. 

Each team uses their own list based on their own metrics which may or may not include position or league as a criteria.  To simply say go with BPA is meaningless. 

It’s also stupid for any team to rigidly adhere to their list without taking into account organizational needs.  Simply put, it’s hard to develop centers if you don’t draft any.  When Jbot got here, our pipeline had no decent D prospects except Guhle, because TM traded DR’s away without replacing them in the draft.  TM used 7 of 8 1st and 2nd rd picks on forwards.  

That's a pretty black and white way to look at it. There may not be 100% consensus pick, but it's still a stupid idea to take a kicker in round 1 for a pretty obvious reason of value, or even a very un-promising DE/RB over a more promising OT

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

That's a pretty black and white way to look at it. There may not be 100% consensus pick, but it's still a stupid idea to take a kicker in round 1 for a pretty obvious reason of value, or even a very un-promising DE/RB over a more promising OT

This isn’t football where you are looking for immediate help.  Here you are trying to create and solid longterm pipeline of talent across all positions, especially given the high failure rate of prospects 

[Randall Flagg]

Reframing my desired offseason as the 3 tier plan. 

Tier 1: We need one big move for 2C. We almost got it at the trade deadline, being in on Trocheck with a deal that we thought was better than Carolina's offer. This shows that Jason is looking for it. We NEED him to find it. It's the most important tier.

Tier 2: We need two moves for quality wingers (or centers, but they're filling wing slots in my lineup framework) who don't need to be stars. Cozens may well be the guy on the 3rd line. (Coach might jumble the lines, mine are just for organization philosophically, an easy hierarchy with which to see the holes and strengths of the team). One would ideally mesh with Eichel and Skinner, one would ideally mesh with Kahun and Johansson in a third line role. Could easily be the completed Anderson trade we were looking for, plus Cozens, and that could work (and it might not). Jason, we need it to work. 

Tier 3: We need three moves for true depth, two at forward and one at D. I'd like the two forward moves to be Zemgus and Larry. It's possible that we could skate by with them being promotions of Asplund and Lazar to permanent 4th line roles, with Asplund-Lazar-Kyle having a similar impact on the team as GLO, but I'm not confident they'd be as successful, and would like to see Larry and Zemgus back. I understand the reality that they might leave. The two moves could be losing both of them, promoting Lazar, and signing a 4LW, or any other iteration of these guys, prospects, and UFA. Just keep the 4th line running smoothly rather than being awful. The third depth move is to replace a defenseman that will surely be gone in one of the tier 1 or tier 2 moves. It could be a Borgen/Pilut development leap, a UFA signing, another small ancillary trade. 

One 2C, two nice but not expensive wingers that make a fit (compare to the Johansson or Kahun acquistion), and three depth pieces that could possibly already be here, but might leave, and might come from elsewhere.

And a goalie. 

Simple!

[Randall Flagg]

Iteration 2:
Tier 1: Mittelstadt, Montour, 1st round pick 2020 to Calgary for Elias Lindholm, Derek Ryan, 3rd round pick
Tier 2: McCabe, above 3rd round pick, Ryan Johnson to Winnipeg for Copp
Tier 3: Sign Larry after he gets excited for these moves, add Ryan Reaves in UFA, sign Joel Edmundson to play 3rd pairing defensive minutes
Khudobin again, but really any goalie

Skinner - Eichel - Kahun
Olofsson - Lindholm - Reinhart
Johansson - Ryan - Copp
Reaves - Larsson - Okposo

Dahlin - Miller
Pilut - Risto
Edmundson - Jokiharju

Ullmark, Khudobin

[In The Buff]

23 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Reframing my desired offseason as the 3 tier plan.
Simple!

Send an email of your plan to Botterill... seriously. He may not read it but if theres even just a chance at it, i say its worth it! ?

[thewookie1]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

Then, the big move can be a real 2C. I know it's hard. But we can't do a 3rd year in a row without one, and the circumstances leading up to our desparate need have forced Jason into this position, and I expect results. I want Henrique caliber talent at minimum but would like him to go above and beyond. I would put Mitts, a RHD, a first, another first, any other pick, any prospect on the table for this to work. Even a lottery win - that just makes the job easier. You really would tell me that in a cap crunch, Tampa wouldn't give up Cirelli for Mitts and the right to draft Byfield or Lafreniere? Feel free to add on Tampa's end if we end up with a lot of stuff to give up. Cirelli is a placeholder name though, and if we can find the next Cirelli, that'd be great too. Liger likes Morgan Frost. i've heard whispers of Gaudette being pretty good in Vancouver. I have no idea on either of those guys, all I know is that Jason needs to fix it for the 2020-2021 
 

I don’t love Cirelli enough to trade a top 3 pick for him among other assets. The last thing I want is a potential sequel to the ROR deal with Cirelli falling apart akin to Drouin and that Top 3 pick becoming another superstar. I will always be weary of players on high tiered teams as it is difficult to parse out the truly great players and those who are really good at latching on.

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, In The Buff said:

Send an email of your plan to Botterill... seriously. He may not read it but if theres even just a chance at it, i say its worth it! ?

I'd kill for Jason's email address lol

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, thewookie1 said:

I don’t love Cirelli enough to trade a top 3 pick for him among other assets. The last thing I want is a potential sequel to the ROR deal with Cirelli falling apart akin to Drouin and that Top 3 pick becoming another superstar. I will always be weary of players on high tiered teams as it is difficult to parse out the truly great players and those who are really good at latching on.

That's what pro scouts are for - figuring this out. Anthony is the real deal. But either way, I don't mean to say that I'd trade pick #2 and Mitts for Cirelli, just that, I wouldn't shy away from using a lottery win in whatever this deal ends up being, while of course expecting more in return than if it wasn't as high a pick. 

 

 

[thewookie1]

7 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Iteration 2:
Tier 1: Mittelstadt, Montour, 1st round pick 2020 to Calgary for Elias Lindholm, Derek Ryan, 3rd round pick
Tier 2: McCabe, above 3rd round pick, Ryan Johnson to Winnipeg for Copp
Tier 3: Sign Larry after he gets excited for these moves, add Ryan Reaves in UFA, sign Joel Edmundson to play 3rd pairing defensive minutes
Khudobin again, but really any goalie

Skinner - Eichel - Kahun
Olofsson - Lindholm - Reinhart
Johansson - Ryan - Copp
Reaves - Larsson - Okposo

Dahlin - Miller
Pilut - Risto
Edmundson - Jokiharju

Ullmark, Khudobin

Probably wouldn’t quite go as far on the 1st trade. I despise trading 1sts, especially in a deep draft.

Im also unsure about Pilut and Lindholm. Pilut looks good in spurts but seems to struggle against heavier teams and Risto’s penchant for hitting means he’ll likely be played rough against. What is Lindholm? Our 2C either needs to be big and strong or a 200ft player to better facilitate our team under Eichel

[WildCard]

33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This isn’t football where you are looking for immediate help.  Here you are trying to create and solid longterm pipeline of talent across all positions, especially given the high failure rate of prospects 

Right, which is the entire point of drafting BPA instead of for need. 

[thewookie1]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

That's what pro scouts are for - figuring this out. Anthony is the real deal. But either way, I don't mean to say that I'd trade pick #2 and Mitts for Cirelli, just that, I wouldn't shy away from using a lottery win in whatever this deal ends up being, while of course expecting more in return than if it wasn't as high a pick. 

 

 

If it’s Pick 10 or lower, I’d target with it but above that it would be come more difficult to part with the pick.