2020 Off-season gameplan

[Gabrielor]

2 minutes ago, Andrew Amerk said:

I’m not advocating for trying to obtain Domi and Drouin, just pointing out that MTL seems to have a better formula than the Sabres at present. 

I dk about that...

They have a 10 million dollar goalie who just played lights out. 

[JohnC]

12 hours ago, dudacek said:

Reasonable take.

I would suggest that Mittelstadt and Montour are better value than Thompson and a late 1st, and that O'Reilly is of higher value than Monahan. Now that clearly wasn't a smart trade, but my point is sometimes teams decide to move on and take the best offer available.

In my view, Tampa has run out of cards. They might not lose Cirelli, but keeping him is going to cost them some other good players for very little return.

I totally agree with you that if Tampa is able to work out a deal to keep Cirelli it will cost them other good players. Cap arithmetic is cold blooded arithmetic that can't be finagled. And as you have frequently noted because of the no trade clauses Tampa is still going to have challenges moving players in order to keep their priority player/s. As I have previously stated Tampa is a well run organization that has a lot of talented and cheaper young players in the pipeline that can fill in for the departed players. I'm confident that whatever decisions Tampa makes they will be smart decisions. You don't have long-term success by being serendipitous. 

[JohnC]

11 hours ago, TheCerebral1 said:

They have somewhat stable goal tending, quality leadership (Weber), and the right mix of veteran to youth.  

Bingo! Your comment about the importance of goaltending is the central issue. There are plenty of discussions on this site regarding what new players will be brought in to improve our status. Assuming that another goaltender isn't brought in the most important player on our roster that will determine success or failure next season is Ullmark. 

Edited August 8, 2020 by JohnC

[LGR4GM]

I'm looking at Winnipeg and Tampa as two teams that will make changes this offseason. 

I might toss Florida in that mix too since they are clearly spinning tires. 

[Gabrielor]

27 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm looking at Winnipeg and Tampa as two teams that will make changes this offseason. 

I might toss Florida in that mix too since they are clearly spinning tires. 

Nashville is poised for a shake-up as well.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

I totally agree with you that if Tampa is able to work out a deal to keep Cirelli it will cost them other good players. Cap arithmetic is cold blooded arithmetic that can't be finagled. And as you have frequently noted because of the no trade clauses Tampa is still going to have challenges moving players in order to keep their priority player/s. As I have previously stated Tampa is a well run organization that has a lot of talented and cheaper young players in the pipeline that can fill in for the departed players. I'm confident that whatever decisions Tampa makes they will be smart decisions. You don't have long-term success by being serendipitous. 

Bingo. This has been my point all along. There are scenarios where the smart move would be trading Cirelli.

It really comes down to the market -financial and trade - for its three young RFAs versus the options they have with their NTCs.

Is it smarter to deal a veteran for peanuts, or at a loss, or Sergachev/Cirelli for a substantial return?

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Bingo. This has been my point all along. There are scenarios where the smart move would be trading Cirelli.

It really comes down to the market -financial and trade - for its three young RFAs versus the options they have with their NTCs.

Is it smarter to deal a veteran for peanuts, or at a loss, or Sergachev/Cirelli for a substantial return?

I don't think we are really disagreeing. There are a lot of factors that have to be considered regarding contracts, roster and what the returns can be for the departed players. As you have pointed out these are complicated multifaced decisions. Being in a position to make these decisions because of an abundance of talent is certainly better than seeking ways to add talent to a deficit riddled team. We both agree that Tampa is a smart and forward thinking franchise. They will come out of this challenging offseason making calculated decisions that puts them in the best situation that they can be in. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I don't think we are really disagreeing. There are a lot of factors that have to be considered regarding contracts, roster and what the returns can be for the departed players. As you have pointed out these are complicated multifaced decisions. Being in a position to make these decisions because of an abundance of talent is certainly better than seeking ways to add talent to a deficit riddled team. We both agree that Tampa is a smart and forward thinking franchise. They will come out of this challenging offseason making calculated decisions that puts them in the best situation that they can be in. 

Yes.

?

[sabremike]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Bingo. This has been my point all along. There are scenarios where the smart move would be trading Cirelli.

It really comes down to the market -financial and trade - for its three young RFAs versus the options they have with their NTCs.

Is it smarter to deal a veteran for peanuts, or at a loss, or Sergachev/Cirelli for a substantial return?

Here's the problem: we have a GM who literally has the same amount of experience as a pro hockey executive as every poster on this board. The odds of him being able to shark Tampa (or really anyone in the league) are insanely remote (which is why only very stupid teams hire unqualified yes men for the GM position). In fact I absolutely expect Adams to get destroyed when he makes his first big move and dig the hole even deeper.

[Gabrielor]

20 minutes ago, sabremike said:

Here's the problem: we have a GM who literally has the same amount of experience as a pro hockey executive as every poster on this board. The odds of him being able to shark Tampa (or really anyone in the league) are insanely remote (which is why only very stupid teams hire unqualified yes men for the GM position). In fact I absolutely expect Adams to get destroyed when he makes his first big move and dig the hole even deeper.

After some iterations, I fear that the 2c+t6w rumor discussed would include Reinhart, just based on salary (or, I guess, Olofsson).

So yeah, either Adams is potentially about to make the trade of the century, or we're going to give up a key roster piece somewhere to fix the O'Reilly trade.

 

Odds are bleak, but I've been hopeful in the wake of this news. Trying to bring back Girgensons-Larsson shows awareness of the parts of your team that did work, and that's certainly new to the Eichel-era Sabres.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, sabremike said:

Here's the problem: we have a GM who literally has the same amount of experience as a pro hockey executive as every poster on this board. The odds of him being able to shark Tampa (or really anyone in the league) are insanely remote (which is why only very stupid teams hire unqualified yes men for the GM position). In fact I absolutely expect Adams to get destroyed when he makes his first big move and dig the hole even deeper.

I don't want him to shark Tampa, I want him to make a trade that helps our hockey team.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, sabremike said:

Here's the problem: we have a GM who literally has the same amount of experience as a pro hockey executive as every poster on this board. The odds of him being able to shark Tampa (or really anyone in the league) are insanely remote (which is why only very stupid teams hire unqualified yes men for the GM position). In fact I absolutely expect Adams to get destroyed when he makes his first big move and dig the hole even deeper.

This is unfair.  He was a long time NHL player, has a few years of coaching experience at the NHL level, and several years of experience as an NHL executive.  

[JohnC]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

Yes.

?

Yes. ?

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=discover+card+commercial+yes&docid=608018200497947523&mid=07D77AFEA8AC8CDE6E4E07D77AFEA8AC8CDE6E4E&view=detail&FORM=VIRE

[kas23]

1 hour ago, sabremike said:

Here's the problem: we have a GM who literally has the same amount of experience as a pro hockey executive as every poster on this board. The odds of him being able to shark Tampa (or really anyone in the league) are insanely remote (which is why only very stupid teams hire unqualified yes men for the GM position). In fact I absolutely expect Adams to get destroyed when he makes his first big move and dig the hole even deeper.

Do you think most experienced posters on this website would “get destroyed” in their first deal? I just don’t understand this logic. Getting “destroyed” likely is a function of the GMs underlying personality (is he anxious?, in love with things he doesn’t have?, have FOMO?, etc). At the end of the day, another team’s GM can’t force any trade on Adams. He will have the choice to counter or walk away. 

[sabremike]

22 minutes ago, Curt said:

This is unfair.  He was a long time NHL player, has a few years of coaching experience at the NHL level, and several years of experience as an NHL executive.  

The executive experience was entirely on the business end.

[sabremike]

9 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Do you think most experienced posters on this website would “get destroyed” in their first deal? I just don’t understand this logic. Getting “destroyed” likely is a function of the GMs underlying personality (is he anxious?, in love with things he doesn’t have?, have FOMO?, etc). At the end of the day, another team’s GM can’t force any trade on Adams. He will have the choice to counter or walk away. 

The last time an NHL team made a move comparable to this it was the Charles Wang Islanders hiring their backup goalie Garth Snow as their new GM. I can tell you for a fact that is not good company to be in.

[dudacek]

Remember when the pathetic Chicago Bulls hired a baseball scout to be their general manager? Dude had zero management experience. None.

What a freaking disaster that was.

[Zamboni]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Remember when the pathetic Chicago Bulls hired a baseball scout to be their general manager? Dude had zero management experience. None.

What a freaking disaster that was.

No, I don’t remember that. Because I don’t care about basketball or the Bulls. 
Care to explain the context or what your trying to get at?

[sabremike]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Remember when the pathetic Chicago Bulls hired a baseball scout to be their general manager? Dude had zero management experience. None.

What a freaking disaster that was.

Just a hunch: Having the greatest basketball player ever fall straight into their laps probably helped. So if Jack ends up being the undisputed greatest player of all time Adams will probably work out. Unfortunately the odds of just about the most incompetent owners of all time who have done nothing but step on rakes being able to see that a guy who no other team had ever even though of as being a GM candidate is the real deal when nobody else in the sport sees it seems awfully remote.

[sabremike]

If Adams wants to win me over he will find a way to acquire Tyce The Baby Giraffe from the Devils.

[dudacek]

31 minutes ago, sabremike said:

Just a hunch: Having the greatest basketball player ever fall straight into their laps probably helped. So if Jack ends up being the undisputed greatest player of all time Adams will probably work out. Unfortunately the odds of just about the most incompetent owners of all time who have done nothing but step on rakes being able to see that a guy who no other team had ever even though of as being a GM candidate is the real deal when nobody else in the sport sees it seems awfully remote.

Just a hunch: you and I don’t have a clue about Adams competence, or that of most any other prospective GM.

We do know that Botterill and Murray checked all the resume boxes except “previous GM experience“ and were dismal failures any way, and we  do know that only two GMs in the century-plus history of The NHL ever won a Stanley Cup with more than one team.

This is an interesting study of how to hire GM winners in the NHL:

https://iveybusinessjournal.com/publication/debunking-the-proven-winner-myth-in-the-national-hockey-league/

It concludes you are probably best off to

• Find the brightest, youngest person in your organization
• Patiently mentor, develop and train this person.
• If you need to go outside, find individuals who have been involved in winning organizations and give them time to learn your organization

The first two dont sound much different than what the Pegulas did with Adams, although I question both the mentoring he received and the deliberation with how it happened.

He’ll succeed or he won’t. Right now, you and I don’t have a ***** clue which.

I’ll watch and find out and complain when he gives me something to complain about.

Edited August 9, 2020 by dudacek

[Curt]

5 hours ago, sabremike said:

The executive experience was entirely on the business end.

Yes, which I’m pretty sure no one on this board has.

He has about 20 years of experience working in various roles at the NHL level.  About 10 as a player, a few in coaching, a few as an executive.  He isn’t just walking in off the street here.

Garth Snow was never anything other than a player before he was hired as GM.

This fatalism about Adams being a disaster of a hire before he has even done a single thing is rather silly.

[Marvin]

9 hours ago, dudacek said:

Just a hunch: you and I don’t have a clue about Adams competence, or that of most any other prospective GM.

We do know that Botterill and Murray checked all the resume boxes except “previous GM experience“ and were dismal failures any way, and we  do know that only two GMs in the century-plus history of The NHL ever won a Stanley Cup with more than one team.

This is an interesting study of how to hire GM winners in the NHL:

https://iveybusinessjournal.com/publication/debunking-the-proven-winner-myth-in-the-national-hockey-league/

It concludes you are probably best off to

• Find the brightest, youngest person in your organization
• Patiently mentor, develop and train this person.
• If you need to go outside, find individuals who have been involved in winning organizations and give them time to learn your organization

The first two dont sound much different than what the Pegulas did with Adams, although I question both the mentoring he received and the deliberation with how it happened.

He’ll succeed or he won’t. Right now, you and I don’t have a ***** clue which.

I’ll watch and find out and complain when he gives me something to complain about.

To buttress this argument:

• Fans of both the Sens and Pens were upset about the Sabres "stealing their guy" who was being groomed to be their next GM.
• In NHL circles, Murray and Botterill apparently were both highly regarded hockey minds who would be good GMs.
• Both times, people around the NHL gave advice on whom to consider (LaFontaine with Murray; the Pegulas with Botterill)
• The Pegulas' business history is that they like to find up-and-comers whom they trust to run various parts of the business and keep them around a while.
  • Unfortunately, that means that they have sometimes failed because of The Peter Principle, as apparently with Murray and Botterill.
    • Obviously, the failures were less catastrophic for his gas business than it has been for the Sabres.
  • That also means that expecting them to bring in a veteran to be GM is a forlorn hope.
    • This drives me crazy.

We can hope that he hit the jackpot with Adams.

[JohnC]

12 hours ago, Curt said:

This is unfair.  He was a long time NHL player, has a few years of coaching experience at the NHL level, and several years of experience as an NHL executive.  

Usually when there is an opening for the top hockey job in a franchise the obvious issue is who would be the best candidate to assume the job. The standard response to fill that opening is to advertise for replacement candidates and then make a judgment as to who would be the best replacement. That didn't happen with the Sabres. Essentially there was an in-house installation shortly after the firing of the GM followed by an immediate (the next day) chopping of staff. 

Kim Pegula publicly stated after the declaration that Botterill was going to be retained that the owners had multiple discussions with him. The owners could not get him to agree to go along with their new business plan. He was subsequently fired, and Adams, who was involved on the business side of the encompassing hockey business that included youth hockey, was hired with no outsiders considered. What's obvious is that what transpired was mostly driven by business/financial considerations. 

As I have stated in prior posts I'm not criticizing the Pegulas for the dramatic change in direction on how the franchise was going to be managed. This franchise with middling success was hemorrhaging money, and unless a major change in operation was made it was going to continue in this oppressive virus economic environment. 

I have no criticism for how the Pegulas acted. There certainly was an understandable rational behind it. But anyone who doesn't believe that the main consideration in this abrupt scenario wasn't related to financial considerations is being naive. I also believe that under this now more austere organization good hockey decisions still can be made to make this franchise better.

[LabattBlue]

14 minutes ago, JohnC said:

...I have no criticism for how the Pegulas acted. 

Wait a minute.  The Pegula's during their dismal decade of Sabres ownership, hired two guys as the GM who had no experience in the role of NHL GM, fired both of them, and then doubled down by hiring a guy who not only had no experience as an NHL GM, he has no experience working in an NHL front office on the hockey ops side of the business...and you can't find any criticism with that?