2020 Off-season gameplan

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Calgary needs RHD. Montour is obvious to me.

They would also need to replace the players going out because they aren’t doing it internally. 
If it’s a hockey trade, Reinhart is likely headed the other way. If the intent is free space, then quality futures.

And don’t sleep on a goaltender.

I keep tripping over the “top six winger” part of the deal. They aren’t trading Tkachuk and they need Lindholm to move into Monahan’s role because they don’t have depth at centre and they aren’t signing a replacement for him in UFA. Mangiapane is young and cheap, but isn’t really a top six.
 
That leaves Gaudreau, which (even with his bad year and contract status) is expensive.

Which is why I keep coming back to Cirelli and Killorn.

crap now I think TB makes the most sense...

Basically I think there are options and I wasn't sure about that before. 

[Brawndo]

40 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

I, too, think they're the logical conclusion.

 

The question, of course, is whether the Bruke-era folks who refused Ristolainen are still around...

Unfortunately yes. It’s their AGM Chris Snow who nixed the deal

[Gabrielor]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

crap now I think TB makes the most sense...

Basically I think there are options and I wasn't sure about that before. 

That's certainly the target I'm preferring, and not just because Cirelli's the best fit.

Tampa's cap also dictates that the deal would be future based (pick 8 is the spearhead), so Reinhart couldn't be in that deal, and that we'd 100% be left with a Montour or Ristolainen to find a 3C with.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Brawndo said:

Unfortunately yes. It’s their AGM Chris Snow who nixed the deal

So that might rule out Calgary or make it less likely. 

[Brawndo]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

So that might rule out Calgary or make it less likely. 

I think it rules out any deal with Risto being a center piece. Montour, as mentioned up thread would be more a likely target for them I believe 

[WildCard]

3 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

That's certainly the target I'm preferring, and not just because Cirelli's the best fit.

Tampa's cap also dictates that the deal would be future based (pick 8 is the spearhead), so Reinhart couldn't be in that deal, and that we'd 100% be left with a Montour or Ristolainen to find a 3C with.

If Cozens isn't moved, he's 100% your 3C next season

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

If Cozens isn't moved, he's 100% your 3C next season

I think moving Cozens is a mistake. 

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I think moving Cozens is a mistake. 

Same. Mittelstadt is much more likely, but it depends on if other teams are sweet on him

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Same. Mittelstadt is much more likely, but it depends on if other teams are sweet on him

This is the nut of it (and why deals get done).

Team A thinks Casey is a bust, Team B thinks he’s a borderline 1A in the making who’s hit a bump in the development road.

If team A is Buffalo and Team B Tamps, then a deal should be real easy to make.

[nfreeman]

So...Reino, Montour, #8 and Samuelsson for Monahan and Gaudreau? 

I would do that in a second, so I don't think the Sabres are paying enough.

I also don't think Calgary will trade Gaudreau.  But if they get knocked out in the play-in or in the 1st round, they might panic and trade Monahan.

[Broken Ankles]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Calgary needs RHD. Montour is obvious to me.

They would also need to replace the players going out because they aren’t doing it internally. 
If it’s a hockey trade, Reinhart is likely headed the other way. If the intent is free space, then quality futures.

And don’t sleep on a goaltender.

I keep tripping over the “top six winger” part of the deal. They aren’t trading Tkachuk and they need Lindholm to move into Monahan’s role because they don’t have depth at centre and they aren’t signing a replacement for him in UFA. Mangiapane is young and cheap, but isn’t really a top six.
 
That leaves Gaudreau, which (even with his bad year and contract status) is expensive.

Which is why I keep coming back to Cirelli and Killorn.

How or why would the TB GM float Killorn (or Johnson) as a possible trade option when they both have NTC and you won’t know their temperature to accept a trade until after the season?   On the other hand, of all the Centers mentioned, Cirelli and Strome seem to be the most likely candidates  to increase in value during the playoffs.  Going back to Calgary, does Monahan’s value actually increase if he plays well?  I think he is a known-known.  Same with The Phx options. 
What about Copp?  He is getting a chance on FL#1 without Scheifle.  Could his stock rise significantly?    I think so.  I llean toward the WPG  option only because Ehlers has been rumored as a trade chip for over a year and their desire for RD seems to be greater than others.  Lastly because that option would not require #8 overall. Which I would prefer we keep if at all possible. 

[dudacek]

Tampa needs cap space and RHD desperately and have an embarrassment of offensive depth 

The Sabres have a ton of cap space and RHD and need offensive depth desperately. 

It really is the perfect match.

The question is which pieces make the the right fit:

Pick 8, 2021 1st, Casey, Dylan, Joki, Miller, Montour, Risto, various prospects and picks

Cirelli, Killorn, Gourde, Palat, Johnson (or even Point) and various prospects and picks.

Put the puzzle together.

[Gabrielor]

16 minutes ago, WildCard said:

If Cozens isn't moved, he's 100% your 3C next season

I've argued it elsewhere, but I think guaranteeing Cozens starts at 3C next year is a mistake. If he earns it in camp / early in the season? Sure, let him ride.

In the meantime, I'd rather he break in on wing first, next to a veteran center who can manage the load of center responsibility while we adjusts.

Example 3rd line:   Kahun Tierney Cozens

 

[irregularly irregular]

2 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

I've argued it elsewhere, but I think guaranteeing Cozens starts at 3C next year is a mistake. If he earns it in camp / early in the season? Sure, let him ride.

In the meantime, I'd rather he break in on wing first, next to a veteran center who can manage the load of center responsibility while we adjusts.

Example 3rd line:   Kahun Tierney Cozens

 

I agree with the sentiment, but feel as though Cozens getting sheltered minutes at 3C would be acceptable. IMHO, retaining Larry for the 4C is crucial for this to work. Lazar maybe can handle the 4C, but we know Larry can do it. 

The Kahun/Tierney/Cozens line would be very interesting. 3 interchangeable centers, all with the potential to play minutes on lines 1 or 2 if needed. I like it!

[Gabrielor]

7 minutes ago, irregularly irregular said:

I agree with the sentiment, but feel as though Cozens getting sheltered minutes at 3C would be acceptable. IMHO, retaining Larry for the 4C is crucial for this to work. Lazar maybe can handle the 4C, but we know Larry can do it. 

The Kahun/Tierney/Cozens line would be very interesting. 3 interchangeable centers, all with the potential to play minutes on lines 1 or 2 if needed. I like it!

was JUST discussing that with someone else haha.

IF Monahan is the target, re-forming a LOG line becomes priority #1, for sure.

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

So...Reino, Montour, #8 and Samuelsson for Monahan and Gaudreau? 

I would do that in a second, so I don't think the Sabres are paying enough.

I also don't think Calgary will trade Gaudreau.  But if they get knocked out in the play-in or in the 1st round, they might panic and trade Monahan.

Calgary has Gaudreau for two more years, then he is gone. No one expects him to re-sign with the Flames.

So it is about maximizing value.

2 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

How or why would the TB GM float Killorn (or Johnson) as a possible trade option when they both have NTC and you won’t know their temperature to accept a trade until after the season?   On the other hand, of all the Centers mentioned, Cirelli and Strome seem to be the most likely candidates  to increase in value during the playoffs.  Going back to Calgary, does Monahan’s value actually increase if he plays well?  I think he is a known-known.  Same with The Phx options. 
What about Copp?  He is getting a chance on FL#1 without Scheifle.  Could his stock rise significantly?    I think so.  I llean toward the WPG  option only because Ehlers has been rumored as a trade chip for over a year and their desire for RD seems to be greater than others.  Lastly because that option would not require #8 overall. Which I would prefer we keep if at all possible. 

You float your NTCs as trade options around the league now because you need to know the market when you approach your NTCs at season’s end. It’s just doing your homework.

I think the “increasing value” argument works for things like “OK, I will throw in that 3rd,” not for the main pieces. The basic parameters aren’t likely to change much. What might change over a playoff run is one side’s willingness to pull the trigger. For example, if Copp is the target and he shines in a 1C role, then the Jets might say “sorry, we decided to keep him.”

Related, something like Risto/Montour + Mittelstadt for Copp + Ehlers is something worth looking at for both sides, knowing the Jets were willing to part with Ehlers for Risto, and assuming the Jets see top 6 potential in Casey. And it is also something that could be affected by a playoff run.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

42 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Calgary needs RHD. Montour is obvious to me.

They would also need to replace the players going out because they aren’t doing it internally. 
If it’s a hockey trade, Reinhart is likely headed the other way. If the intent is free space, then quality futures.

And don’t sleep on a goaltender.

I keep tripping over the “top six winger” part of the deal. They aren’t trading Tkachuk and they need Lindholm to move into Monahan’s role because they don’t have depth at centre and they aren’t signing a replacement for him in UFA. Mangiapane is young and cheap, but isn’t really a top six.
 
That leaves Gaudreau, which (even with his bad year and contract status) is expensive.

Which is why I keep coming back to Cirelli and Killorn.

I'm tripping over the part of "extremely excited to get these players".

For me, that leaves out some teams and Chicago would be one. Saad/Strome don't meet that standard for me. Kane doesn't seem to meet that for many on here. I guess it depends on what extremely excites you (calling @inkman).

[LGR4GM]

So Killorn starting after this league year has a modified NTC according to capfriendly. Idk what the modified part is but that is interesting. 

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

So Killorn starting after this league year has a modified NTC according to capfriendly. Idk what the modified part is but that is interesting. 

I believe it allows him to block trades to about 1/2 the league.

This is why Tampa fans believe he will be traded.

Tampa fans also seem to think he is the only player they will have to trade, apparently because they are going to sign Cirelli Sergachev and Cernak for about $5-6 million combined because Tampa.

[thewookie1]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Tampa needs cap space and RHD desperately and have an embarrassment of offensive depth 

The Sabres have a ton of cap space and RHD and need offensive depth desperately. 

It really is the perfect match.

The question is which pieces make the the right fit:

Pick 8, 2021 1st, Casey, Dylan, Joki, Miller, Montour, Risto, various prospects and picks

Cirelli, Killorn, Gourde, Palat, Johnson (or even Point) and various prospects and picks.

Put the puzzle together.

Aside from Point, Cozens is off the table entirely in my opinion. 

The problem I keep having is how will we fit our guys in after making the trade?

 

My first solution is doing a trade akin to

Cirelli & Killorn for 8OA, Thompson, and Risto w/ 1.4 mil retention, perhaps we add a 2nd next year.

Thompson is a far cheaper replacement for Killorn and an RFA

8OA could very well give them a great player in the next couple years as the continue to play with a near flat cap.

Risto has been noted, in the past, in rumors to Tampa Bay and at 4 mil he would clean up some of their shortages.

 

Essentially the problem with Cirelli + Killorn is that they are 10 mil or so. With Reinhart, Olofsson, Kahun, Ullmark, making about 16mil  Ristolainen and Montour become cap problems while Jokijarju becomes a need for our cap space.

Edited August 5, 2020 by thewookie1

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Tampa fans also seem to think he is the only player they will have to trade, apparently because they are going to sign Cirelli Sergachev and Cernak for about $5-6 million combined because Tampa.

Income tax or not... I'm really curious for TB for their Sergachev/Cernak situation.

Provorov? Chabot? Nope, neither gets that much. But that next tier: Nurse, Barrie, Risto....  Sergachev only plays 2nd-PP time so his numbers are a little less than you'd expect, but he gets 40 Pts/season. That's into the $5M range by himself. Cernak should go 2-year bridge and bet on himself for a break out, but he's in that McCabe-y spot where $1.8-2M looks right on said bridge. Oops... I seem to have not gotten to Cirelli yet.

[dudacek]

There will never be a team more vulnerable to an offer sheet than Tampa will be this off-season.

[DarthEbriate]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

There will never be a team more vulnerable to an offer sheet than Tampa will be this off-season.

And you factor in a Krakendraft next season --- Hedman, McDonagh both need to be protected. TB should be looking to find teams willing to trade for McD, or Serg, or Cernak (ideally for them McDonagh), because they have to protect so many forwards. These are good problems to have. This is where we want to be.

Edit: We want to be there... with loads of talent to protect that can be turned into future assets and the next sustaining wave of awesomeness. Not necessarily with everyone on a NTC,NMC.

Edited August 5, 2020 by DarthEbriate

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

This is the nut of it (and why deals get done).

Team A thinks Casey is a bust, Team B thinks he’s a borderline 1A in the making who’s hit a bump in the development road.

If team A is Buffalo and Team B Tamps, then a deal should be real easy to make.

What if team A (Buffalo) believes that Mitts is a borderline 1A then do they get rid of him? On the contrary, I not only don't believe that the Sabres have concluded that he is a bust but they believe that there is still a salvageable upside that is ready to be tapped. That is not to say that in a good deal they wouldn't be reluctant to include him in a deal that fortifies the second line. For me the one untouchable young player on our roster is Cozens with Yoki not far behind in that category. 

[WildCard]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

There will never be a team more vulnerable to an offer sheet than Tampa will be this off-season.

And nobody will do anything about it