2020 Off-season gameplan

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think the answer depends on whether you think Mitts will be an NHL player, because Bennett is sorta Zemgus Girgensons West.

Well, with the potential to add a little more offensively, I'd say. 

Girgensons ppg is .28

Bennett ppg is .35

Not a huge difference by any means but maybe a little something.  I think Casey has a reasonable chance to settle in as a matchups based 3rd line scoring LW. He may find himself out of the league, though, too. 

Edited July 8, 2020 by Thorny

[PerreaultForever]

I read an article today that said Jake DeBrusk's agent would not be entertaining a home town discount so maybe the Bruins will look to unload him. I'd consider it if I were the Sabres. Would give us one heck of a LW line up. 

[Taro T]

On 7/1/2020 at 8:41 PM, Thorny said:

A nice, detailed roster breakdown/construction from Chad:

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2020/7/1/21309489/building-the-buffalo-sabres-2020-offseason-projection-2-0-adams-lindholm-fast-kerfoot-lundell

Pretty good read. 

Just seeing this now.  Thing that stuck out to me was Chad saying he expects none of the UFAs back.  Figured they'd be open to bringing Girgensons & Larsson both back (he said they'd like Larry back but don't expect it) & should be able to get at least 1 of them back.  Glad to see no Simmonds or Sobotka though.  (Neither SHOULD be back, but Botterill would've brought back Wayne.)

[Eleven]

On 7/7/2020 at 9:09 AM, sabresparaavida said:

What do you guys think about Risto+Mitts+ pick (2nd?) for Monahan+Bennett?

It's the pullup trade!

[GASabresIUFAN]

Assuming the new CBA will be approved by the players, we are going to have a $81.5 cap for the next two years.  The biggest issue regarding this cap for the Sabres is our we now a budget team or will KA be allowed to spend to the cap?

Where are we?

Fowards under contract - 4 - Eichel, Skinner, Okposo and Johansson.  Cost 29.5 mill.

Defense under contract - 5- Dahlin, Jokiharju, McCabe, Miller and Ristolainen.  Cost 13.975

Goalies under contract - 1 - Hutton. Cost 2.75  (GRAND TOTALS 10 players for 47 mill with CoHo's buyout - Leaving 34.5 for 12 players

KEY F RFAs - Reinhart, Olofsson, Kahun, Lazar, Mittelstadt and Thompson

KEY D & G RFAs - Montour & Ullmark

KEY (plus others) UFAs - Larsson, Girgensons, Vesey, Simmonds, & Nelson

AHL/Prospects under contract who could make the team - Cozens (c) - 925,000; Asplund (lw/c) - 845,000; Routsalainen (C/W) - 925,000 & Borgen (RD) - 864,000

Players 11-22 (Budget 34.5)

1) 2C - Budget $5 mill.  My guess is Montour is likely to be part of the deal to get this done directly or in-directly.  Trade Montour to Colorado with other assets to get Kadri?

2) 1RW - Reinhart - 5 year 32.5 mill (6.5 per season)

3) 2 LW - Olofosson - 2 year 7 mill (3.5 per season)

4) 2 RW - Kahun - 2 years 6 mill (3 mill per season)

5) 3 C  - Cozens - 925K

6) 3 RW - Unknown - Thompson (1 year 875K Q Offer), Mitts (1 year 875K Q Offer) or Other - It really depends on cap space and how the kids perform in camp and who else is available out side the organization.

7) 4 C - Larsson - Re-signed 3 year 8.4 mil (2.8 per season)

8.) 4 LW - Unknown - likely a cheap internal candidate to save cap space.  Lazar (1 yr 735 Q Offer) or Asplund (.845) come to mind

9) Starting Goalie - Ullmark 3 years 9 mill ( 3 per season)

10) 3 LD - Budget 2 mill - Ben Hutton comes to mind - 2 years @ 2 per season?  Also I like Jon Merrill in a depth role.

11) 13th forward - Budget 1 mill or less (Lazar if Asplund wins 4 LW?)

12) 7th D - Borgen - .864

Total cost with only 2 players from outside the organization around 30 mill.  This is the simple approach.  

BOLDER PLAN

1) Demote, trade or buyout Hutton and sign someone like Cam Talbot for 2 years at 2 mill per season.  Net Cap hit if demoted 1.65 + 2, thus a .9 additional cost. Added benefit of exposing Talbot to the expansion draft.

2) Trade Miller to free cap to go after someone like Toffoli to play 2 RW and demote Kahun to 3 RW and both Mitts and Thompson to the AHL to start the year.  Toffoli is an UFA - would he come here for 4 years @ 5.25 per season?  In this scenario Borgen becomes the 3 RD.  Net cap hit; an additional 1.375 plus the cost of a 7th D.

3) Acquire Nazum Kadri to be the 2C.  To make the cap work, Montour or Risto will need to be traded.

4) Sign Ben Hutton or Jon Merrill for the 3 LD job, but there are others that would fit as well (Gustafsson?")

5) Sign a depth D - 800K

This uses up about an additional 3 mill bringing us in at 80 million total.

 

Edited July 14, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Broken Ankles]

22 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I read an article today that said Jake DeBrusk's agent would not be entertaining a home town discount so maybe the Bruins will look to unload him. I'd consider it if I were the Sabres. Would give us one heck of a LW line up. 

What could he be asking for?  The Bruins have $18m and he is restricted.  Why wouldn’t they bridge him?  Krug is the only UFA they must pay.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

What could he be asking for?  The Bruins have $18m and he is restricted.  Why wouldn’t they bridge him?  Krug is the only UFA they must pay.

not sure where you got the 18m figure from. I think they are right up against the cap with DeBrusk, Bjork, Gryzlek all RFAs 2 of whom have earned raises and UFAs include Chara, Krug and Nordstrom. Even if they bridged DeBrusk as a 20 goal scorer it's a bump in pay they don't have room for if they sign Krug to anything reasonable.

[freester]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Assuming the new CBA will be approved by the players, we are going to have a $81.5 cap for the next two years.  The biggest issue regarding this cap for the Sabres is our we now a budget team or will KA be allowed to spend to the cap?

Where are we?

Fowards under contract - 4 - Eichel, Skinner, Okposo and Johansson.  Cost 29.5 mill.

Defense under contract - 5- Dahlin, Jokiharju, McCabe, Miller and Ristolainen.  Cost 13.975

Goalies under contract - 1 - Hutton. Cost 2.75  (GRAND TOTALS 10 players for 47 mill with CoHo's buyout - Leaving 34.5 for 12 players

KEY F RFAs - Reinhart, Olofsson, Kahun, Lazar, Mittelstadt and Thompson

KEY D & G RFAs - Montour & Ullmark

KEY (plus others) UFAs - Larsson, Girgensons, Vesey, Simmonds, & Nelson

AHL/Prospects under contract who could make the team - Cozens (c) - 925,000; Asplund (lw/c) - 845,000; Routsalainen (C/W) - 925,000 & Borgen (RD) - 864,000

Players 11-22 (Budget 34.5)

1) 2C - Budget $5 mill.  My guess is Montour is likely to be part of the deal to get this done directly or in-directly.  Trade Montour to Colorado with other assets to get Kadri?

2) 1RW - Reinhart - 5 year 32.5 mill (6.5 per season)

3) 2 LW - Olofosson - 2 year 7 mill (3.5 per season)

4) 2 RW - Kahun - 2 years 6 mill (3 mill per season)

5) 3 C  - Cozens - 925K

6) 3 RW - Unknown - Thompson (1 year 875K Q Offer), Mitts (1 year 875K Q Offer) or Other - It really depends on cap space and how the kids perform in camp and who else is available out side the organization.

7) 4 C - Larsson - Re-signed 3 year 8.4 mil (2.8 per season)

8.) 4 LW - Unknown - likely a cheap internal candidate to save cap space.  Lazar (1 yr 735 Q Offer) or Asplund (.845) come to mind

9) Starting Goalie - Ullmark 3 years 9 mill ( 3 per season)

10) 3 LD - Budget 2 mill - Ben Hutton comes to mind - 2 years @ 2 per season?  Also I like Jon Merrill in a depth role.

11) 13th forward - Budget 1 mill or less (Lazar if Asplund wins 4 LW?)

12) 7th D - Borgen - .864

Total cost with only 2 players from outside the organization around 30 mill.  This is the simple approach.  

BOLDER PLAN

1) Demote, trade or buyout Hutton and sign someone like Cam Talbot for 2 years at 2 mill per season.  Net Cap hit if demoted 1.65 + 2, thus a .9 additional cost. Added benefit of exposing Talbot to the expansion draft.

2) Trade Miller to free cap to go after someone like Toffoli to play 2 RW and demote Kahun to 3 RW and both Mitts and Thompson to the AHL to start the year.  Toffoli is an UFA - would he come here for 4 years @ 5.25 per season?  In this scenario Borgen becomes the 3 RD.  Net cap hit; an additional 1.375 plus the cost of a 7th D.

3) Acquire Nazum Kadri to be the 2C

4) Sign Ben Hutton or Jon Merrill for the 3 LD job, but there are others that would fit as well (Gustafsson?")

5) Sign a depth D - 800K

This uses up about an additional 3 mill bringing us in at 80 million total.

 

Have we established that Thompson can play in AHL without passing waivers? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

39 minutes ago, freester said:

Have we established that Thompson can play in AHL without passing waivers? 

If he can’t he becomes the 13th forward for my calculations. 

[JohnRobertEichel]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If he can’t he becomes the 13th forward for my calculations. 

At this point, I believe Thompson has squeezed everything he can out of the AHL experience and is ready for a full-time bottom-6 NHL forward role.

What do people think about an Okposo contract buyout? We're currently stuck with him for 3 more years at $6 million each. A contract buyout would instead mean 6 more years at $2 million each. Is he tradable? Must he count as a protected player for the Seattle expansion draft?

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, ManyRasmusFewWins said:

At this point, I believe Thompson has squeezed everything he can out of the AHL experience and is ready for a full-time bottom-6 NHL forward role.

What do people think about an Okposo contract buyout? We're currently stuck with him for 3 more years at $6 million each. A contract buyout would instead mean 6 more years at $2 million each. Is he tradable? Must he count as a protected player for the Seattle expansion draft?

Hard no. He is overpaid but is a useful 3/4 liner and is one of 2 NHL rw's on the team. 

[freester]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If he can’t he becomes the 13th forward for my calculations. 

Being the 13th forward is not acceptable for his development. I believe if he has to be in the NHL he will be slotted in as a bottom 6 starter. 

7 minutes ago, ManyRasmusFewWins said:

At this point, I believe Thompson has squeezed everything he can out of the AHL experience and is ready for a full-time bottom-6 NHL forward role.

What do people think about an Okposo contract buyout? We're currently stuck with him for 3 more years at $6 million each. A contract buyout would instead mean 6 more years at $2 million each. Is he tradable? Must he count as a protected player for the Seattle expansion draft?

The days of buyouts and spending to the cap are over. The Sabres like many other teams will be entering a period of austerity. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, freester said:

Being the 13th forward is not acceptable for his development. I believe if he has to be in the NHL he will be slotted in as a bottom 6 starter. 

The days of buyouts and spending to the cap are over. The Sabres like many other teams will be entering a period of austerity. 

The austerity plan here and across the league lead to my doing two difference cap related plans.  I do believe Covid and the general uncertainty will lead to smaller ($) and shorter term this off-season, which could actually be very beneficial to the Sabres if managed properly.  

[Broken Ankles]

8 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

not sure where you got the 18m figure from. I think they are right up against the cap with DeBrusk, Bjork, Gryzlek all RFAs 2 of whom have earned raises and UFAs include Chara, Krug and Nordstrom. Even if they bridged DeBrusk as a 20 goal scorer it's a bump in pay they don't have room for if they sign Krug to anything reasonable.

Debrusk is less than Sam, so assume a two year deal of $3.3-$3.5M.  Chara will take another team friendly $1.5-2M deal.  Gryzlek and Bjork are also RFA and controlled.  So their AAV may double.  Nordstrom is a UFA and will walk.  Leaving Krug.   I calculate about $10.1M for the aforementioned.  Is Krug going to get $8M?  Not sure.  I would not want to sign him to a long term deal for that.  But to the original point, unless Krug is demanding more than $8M, I dont see a Debrusk sitution. 

 

[LabattBlue]

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Assuming the new CBA will be approved by the players, we are going to have a $81.5 cap for the next two years.  The biggest issue regarding this cap for the Sabres is our we now a budget team or will KA be allowed to spend to the cap?

Where are we?

Fowards under contract - 4 - Eichel, Skinner, Okposo and Johansson.  Cost 29.5 mill.

Defense under contract - 5- Dahlin, Jokiharju, McCabe, Miller and Ristolainen.  Cost 13.975

Goalies under contract - 1 - Hutton. Cost 2.75  (GRAND TOTALS 10 players for 47 mill with CoHo's buyout - Leaving 34.5 for 12 players

KEY F RFAs - Reinhart, Olofsson, Kahun, Lazar, Mittelstadt and Thompson

KEY D & G RFAs - Montour & Ullmark

KEY (plus others) UFAs - Larsson, Girgensons, Vesey, Simmonds, & Nelson

AHL/Prospects under contract who could make the team - Cozens (c) - 925,000; Asplund (lw/c) - 845,000; Routsalainen (C/W) - 925,000 & Borgen (RD) - 864,000

Players 11-22 (Budget 34.5)

1) 2C - Budget $5 mill.  My guess is Montour is likely to be part of the deal to get this done directly or in-directly.  Trade Montour to Colorado with other assets to get Kadri?

2) 1RW - Reinhart - 5 year 32.5 mill (6.5 per season)

3) 2 LW - Olofosson - 2 year 7 mill (3.5 per season)

4) 2 RW - Kahun - 2 years 6 mill (3 mill per season)

5) 3 C  - Cozens - 925K

6) 3 RW - Unknown - Thompson (1 year 875K Q Offer), Mitts (1 year 875K Q Offer) or Other - It really depends on cap space and how the kids perform in camp and who else is available out side the organization.

7) 4 C - Larsson - Re-signed 3 year 8.4 mil (2.8 per season)

8.) 4 LW - Unknown - likely a cheap internal candidate to save cap space.  Lazar (1 yr 735 Q Offer) or Asplund (.845) come to mind

9) Starting Goalie - Ullmark 3 years 9 mill ( 3 per season)

10) 3 LD - Budget 2 mill - Ben Hutton comes to mind - 2 years @ 2 per season?  Also I like Jon Merrill in a depth role.

11) 13th forward - Budget 1 mill or less (Lazar if Asplund wins 4 LW?)

12) 7th D - Borgen - .864

Total cost with only 2 players from outside the organization around 30 mill.  This is the simple approach.  

BOLDER PLAN

1) Demote, trade or buyout Hutton and sign someone like Cam Talbot for 2 years at 2 mill per season.  Net Cap hit if demoted 1.65 + 2, thus a .9 additional cost. Added benefit of exposing Talbot to the expansion draft.

2) Trade Miller to free cap to go after someone like Toffoli to play 2 RW and demote Kahun to 3 RW and both Mitts and Thompson to the AHL to start the year.  Toffoli is an UFA - would he come here for 4 years @ 5.25 per season?  In this scenario Borgen becomes the 3 RD.  Net cap hit; an additional 1.375 plus the cost of a 7th D.

3) Acquire Nazum Kadri to be the 2C

4) Sign Ben Hutton or Jon Merrill for the 3 LD job, but there are others that would fit as well (Gustafsson?")

5) Sign a depth D - 800K

This uses up about an additional 3 mill bringing us in at 80 million total.

 

Some good suggestions, but Larsson at 2.8 mil per year for 3 years?  ?

[freester]

14 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

Some good suggestions, but Larsson at 2.8 mil per year for 3 years?  ?

with a stagnant cap and many teams spending under the cap, I expect Larsson's value to be depressed.  Hopefully we can retain him for less like 3 years 6 million.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, LabattBlue said:

Some good suggestions, but Larsson at 2.8 mil per year for 3 years?  ?

1 hour ago, freester said:

with a stagnant cap and many teams spending under the cap, I expect Larsson's value to be depressed.  Hopefully we can retain him for less like 3 years 6 million.

Before COVID-19/stagnant cap, I figured some team would probably give Lars around $3M for 2-4 years.  It’ll likely be less now.  How much less, I’m not sure.  It’s possible that the lower end UFAs, like Lars, get hit harder as teams try to save money for the higher end players, so you could be right.

Its also been rumored that Lars is not very interested in returning, so it may be some other team that he takes less money from anyway.

A lot of things up in the air right now.

Edited July 10, 2020 by Curt

[dudacek]

Larry is an excellent 4th line centre who has never scored more than 18 points in a single NHL season.

Guys like that don’t get four-year contracts, or $3 million per, let alone both.

That’s Jay Beagle money after 30 points and a Stanley Cup and that contract was laughed at.

[LabattBlue]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Larry is an excellent 4th line centre who has never scored more than 18 points in a single NHL season.

Guys like that don’t get four-year contracts, or $3 million per, let alone both.

 

^^^ This.  4th line centers with good defensive skills, should be able to be found for 1/2 that price.  On a team that will quickly become cash strapped with upcoming contracts to Dahlin and Reinhart, it would be crazy to spend 3 mil in cap space on Larsson.

[dudacek]

Can somebody please go check on @LGR4GM? 
Im worried about him.

[Curt]

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Can somebody please go check on @LGR4GM? 
Im worried about him.

Risto/Montour + Mitts + 2nd for Boeser and Gaudette???

[dudacek]

4 minutes ago, Curt said:

Risto/Montour + Mitts + 2nd for Boeser and Gaudette???

Wouldn’t be surprised if we are shopping that kind of package, as Boeser and guys like him start to pop loose due to the cap crunch.

I really think it will be a buyers market come September. Let’s hope Adams won’t blow it the way we know Botterill would have.

[sweetlou]

I know the board threw the idea around last year but would Turris be a good stop gap 2C for a couple of years until Cozens is ready?  Turris could always drop to 3C after that.  He is expensive at $6 AAV but maybe Nashville retains some salary to unload him and Sabres would not have to give up much to get him. Nashville is still loaded at center with Johansen, Duchene, and Bonino as top 3 centers. 

I think we could get Turris ($1million retained) and a third rd pick for Pilut and 4th rd pick.  Pilut may nix KHL contract if he knows he will be on NHL roster.  Nashville also has fellow country man in Lindholm on defense.

Edited July 13, 2020 by sweetlou

[SABRES 0311]

8 hours ago, sweetlou said:

I know the board threw the idea around last year but would Turris be a good stop gap 2C for a couple of years until Cozens is ready?  Turris could always drop to 3C after that.  He is expensive at $6 AAV but maybe Nashville retains some salary to unload him and Sabres would not have to give up much to get him. Nashville is still loaded at center with Johansen, Duchene, and Bonino as top 3 centers. 

I think we could get Turris ($1million retained) and a third rd pick for Pilut and 4th rd pick.  Pilut may nix KHL contract if he knows he will be on NHL roster.  Nashville also has fellow country man in Lindholm on defense.

He’s 30 years old and scored 29 goals in the last 2 3/4 seasons with NSH. Looking at their lineup he’s third/fourth line center.  Big money small numbers. I just see all that money and think it could be spent better than hoping he holds down the fort while we keep our fingers crossed with Cozens. 

[Taro T]

On 7/10/2020 at 9:06 AM, ManyRasmusFewWins said:

At this point, I believe Thompson has squeezed everything he can out of the AHL experience and is ready for a full-time bottom-6 NHL forward role.

What do people think about an Okposo contract buyout? We're currently stuck with him for 3 more years at $6 million each. A contract buyout would instead mean 6 more years at $2 million each. Is he tradable? Must he count as a protected player for the Seattle expansion draft?

It's doubtful the team will be pushing as close to the cap this season as they were last year even with Okposo's salary on the books.

Since he is effectively untradeable, he's a good fit for 4RW & 2PP, & the Sabres (likely) don't need that cap space, no point to buying him out & pushing his contract onto the books for 6 full seasons.  Keep him and play him.  

There is a non-negligible possibility he'll retire or find himself in a BF-LTIR before the contract is completed, which would effectively leave him with no/minimal cap effects for up to 2 additional years beyond this one.  If he's still here, & wants & can play next year, revisit whether his cap space is needed (& what it would take to get Seattle to choose him).  Decide how to proceed at that point.  Even if they do buy him out then, he'd only be costing cap space for 5 years from now instead of 6.  That could be huge when Dahlin is in his prime & guys like Cozens & #8OA are coming off their ELCs.