2020 Off-season gameplan

[SJSabres Fan]

12 hours ago, Shootica said:

You're not, I've heard the same.  And it's backed up by the fact that he's on his third team already and on the trade block again.

Not a fan of this rumor.

https://m.facebook.com/penguins/videos/469044463735940/
 

seems like a sweetheart to me...

[JohnC]

On 9/2/2020 at 10:51 PM, LGR4GM said:

It's a major step down. Larsson is a smothering player and Lazar just hasn't been. 

Losing Larsson is a major problem added to the list. 

There's no question that Larsson is a better player than Lazar on a variety of fronts. As you noted he is a more of smothering defensive player who is called on to control the best offensive players. And as you and others have previously noted he does have the ability to show more offensively than his current role and the players he is joined with allow for. 

But the reality of the offseason and the market is that you can't control and retain all the players you want to. Career-wise Larsson playing for Buffalo from an individual player perspective has to an extent stifled his talents. For sure he is not going to be a prolific offensive player but his role has restricted his numbers. And he is certainly is aware of that. The issue here isn't does Buffalo want to keep as it is does he want to stay. From a career standpoint I don't think he believes that it is in his best interest. (My opinion.) I would love to have him stay because he adds an element of toughness that this team lacks. 

[JohnC]

On 9/2/2020 at 10:28 PM, Thorny said:

Larsson gets top-tier defensive results in incredibly tough usage. We rely on him so much. Asking Lazar to do that, when he never has, is dicey in my estimation. 

What you see isn't really what you get with Larsson, on this roster. Picture him basically standing in a 4 foot deep hole, to start. We are merely seeing what's above the surface. I think he himself, at least, thinks this. He's looking for an opportunity on a bit more solid footing. We need to be careful with anyone we ask to fill his hole straight up, from internally, or another team. Much of what we see from other players will be hidden below the surface immediately upon placement in his shoes. 

I agree with you that Lazar is a step down from Larsson and their talents don't equate with one another. And I also agree with you that due to Larsson's established role that it has inhibited  his offensive talents. And that is why I believe that Larsson as a free agent will decide to move on to go to a team that offers him more opportunity to expand his game. His primary role as a defensive stalwart is established. He is certainly not an offensive dynamo but there is room for his offensive role to grow. Larsson recognizes that. And that is the reason why I believe that he will make the decision to move on and seek a fresher pasture. 

Or to put it in a lesser wordy manner: We agree on the Larsson issue. 

[USMCSnyper]

Can confirm McCann is a Grade A DB

[LGR4GM]

50 minutes ago, JohnC said:

There's no question that Larsson is a better player than Lazar on a variety of fronts. As you noted he is a more of smothering defensive player who is called on to control the best offensive players. And as you and others have previously noted he does have the ability to show more offensively than his current role and the players he is joined with allow for. 

But the reality of the offseason and the market is that you can't control and retain all the players you want to. Career-wise Larsson playing for Buffalo from an individual player perspective has to an extent stifled his talents. For sure he is not going to be a prolific offensive player but his role has restricted his numbers. And he is certainly is aware of that. The issue here isn't does Buffalo want to keep as it is does he want to stay. From a career standpoint I don't think he believes that it is in his best interest. (My opinion.) I would love to have him stay because he adds an element of toughness that this team lacks. 

Wasn't commenting on Larsson's desire or our ability to control. Was simply pointing out that you can't actually replace Larsson with Lazar and get similar results. 

[JohnC]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Wasn't commenting on Larsson's desire or our ability to control. Was simply pointing out that you can't actually replace Larsson with Lazar and get similar results. 

I was just pointing out that ultimately he has the last say on this issue. I didn't suggest that you were saying otherwise. 

[Weave]

Larsson, IMO, is somewhere south of Paul Gaustad, and somewhere north of Adam Mair in terms of overall effectiveness.  In and of itself, losing Larsson shouldn't be a big deal.  But he's one of two natural centers on the roster, and the LOG line seemed to be greater than the sum of its parts.  And in that context he's going to be difficult to replace.  If we had a reasonable center spine I wouldn't sweat this at all, but we don't.

[Thorner]

23 hours ago, Shootica said:

You're not, I've heard the same.  And it's backed up by the fact that he's on his third team already and on the trade block again.

Not a fan of this rumor.

So, he's due to win the Conn Smythe, you are saying..

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Larsson, IMO, is somewhere south of Paul Gaustad, and somewhere north of Adam Mair in terms of overall effectiveness.  In and of itself, losing Larsson shouldn't be a big deal.  But he's one of two natural centers on the roster, and the LOG line seemed to be greater than the sum of its parts.  And in that context he's going to be difficult to replace.  If we had a reasonable center spine I wouldn't sweat this at all, but we don't.

I agree the loss is magnified due to the lack of centres on the team, but it's also the specific role we play him in. Krueger's defensive system only had a chance of working properly due to the ridiculous load we saddled Larsson with. A load someone like Gaustad wouldn't be close to be capable of carrying, IMO. Larsson is still wildly underrated. We can mitigate the loss of Larry by adding other centres, but unless one is elite defensively like Larsson is, they'll have to be consciously aware they need to change the deployment of the roster. 

Few available could be plugged into his role and succeed. To illustrate, if all we did this offseason was add Monahan and subtract Larsson, we may not even improve at all. I don't know why I thought retaining Larsson was mostly a given. Effectively having to add a top 6 centre, AND a shut-down centre to the roster in one offseason when we haven't added any centres really in years is so daunting and an even more difficult and crucial task than I imagined (thinking Larsson would stay). 

They are players that should be available. I just hope people (notably, Adams) see the need for a player like say Andrew Copp and aren't screaming "overpay" when we give up something noteworthy to get him/someone like him. 

Edited September 4, 2020 by Thorny

[Weave]

Thorny, we definitely disagree on Larsson’s level of play.  I’d describe his play as effective in a specific role.  He’s one dimensional and not excellent at it, merely good.  I think the view of his play is skewed by the rarity of effective play on this roster over the last 8 seasons.

[Gabrielor]

Watching all these young guys in the playoffs...it's just sickening. 

It's not just that we haven't been there; We haven't even been close...

[Thorner]

16 minutes ago, Weave said:

Thorny, we definitely disagree on Larsson’s level of play.  I’d describe his play as effective in a specific role.  He’s one dimensional and not excellent at it, merely good.  I think the view of his play is skewed by the rarity of effective play on this roster over the last 8 seasons.

That specific role is neutralizing the other team's best players. 

He is statistically excellent at it. 

[PerreaultForever]

Sounding like Krug won't be a Bruin so I'm going to suggest him as an outside of the box way of making this team better. Signing free agents (which I don't think we will do but I remain hopeful to be wrong for the moment) is the only real way to instantly improve as we do not have much to offer in trades without adding pieces. No obvious 2C in free agency so I see two options. Sign Hall, trade Sam for a 2C or sign Krug, trade Risto (and Montour) for a 2C. Then just add grit with what's left. 

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Sounding like Krug won't be a Bruin so I'm going to suggest him as an outside of the box way of making this team better. Signing free agents (which I don't think we will do but I remain hopeful to be wrong for the moment) is the only real way to instantly improve as we do not have much to offer in trades without adding pieces. No obvious 2C in free agency so I see two options. Sign Hall, trade Sam for a 2C or sign Krug, trade Risto (and Montour) for a 2C. Then just add grit with what's left. 

Krug is a very good player, and in the abstract I'd be happy to add him to the lineup, but IMHO the Sabres need to allocate that cap space to a 2C or 2RW (or both) who is too expensive for his current team to keep.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Krug is a very good player, and in the abstract I'd be happy to add him to the lineup, but IMHO the Sabres need to allocate that cap space to a 2C or 2RW (or both) who is too expensive for his current team to keep.

I don't disagree with this, 2C is what we need, but maybe it's just a different way to get one. I am not convinced anybody's just going to want to cap dump good 2Cs without trading something of real value back to them. 

[Broken Ankles]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Krug is a very good player, and in the abstract I'd be happy to add him to the lineup, but IMHO the Sabres need to allocate that cap space to a 2C or 2RW (or both) who is too expensive for his current team to keep.

And don’t forget the space for a number 2 Goalie.  I hear more and more about Arizona and Pittsburgh floating names out there.  How many others are we not hearing about?  I have to think KA is considering a change and we should be allocating about $3-5m for the upgrade.  Obviously you would love to have move Hutts back as part of a deal but you might be better served burying his number or buying him out.  Love to know what Arizona is asking for Keumper.  If Allen is a third round,  what is Darcy? 

Edited September 5, 2020 by Broken Ankles

[dudacek]

7 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

And don’t forget the space for a number 2 Goalie.  I hear more and more about Arizona and Pittsburgh floating names out there.  How many others are we not hearing about?  I have to think KA is considering a change and we should be allocating about $3-5m for the upgrade.  Obviously you would love to have move Hutts back as part of a deal but you might be better served burying his number or buying him out.  Love to know what Arizona is asking for Keumper.  If Allen is a third round,  what is Darcy? 

Darcy Kuemper is the poster boy for the WTF? Development path of goalies.

He spent a year as an overager in juniors, then three more splitting time as an AHL backup and in the ECHL.
He was never a minor league starter, graduating directly to the backup spot in Minnesota, spending four years as mediocre backup for the Wild, and one more splitting time as a backup between LA and Arizona.

Then, at 28, after 7 years of pro hockey where he had never been a starter anywhere, where he had never played more than 43 games in a season, and played more than 30 games in a season only twice, he suddenly becomes a starter in Arizona. 

And puts up back-to-back years of better than .925 S%.

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Darcy Kuemper is the poster boy for the WTF? Development path of goalies.

He spent a year as an overager in juniors, then three more splitting time as an AHL backup and in the ECHL.
He was never a minor league starter, graduating directly to the backup spot in Minnesota, spending four years as mediocre backup for the Wild, and one more splitting time as a backup between LA and Arizona.

Then, at 28, after 7 years of pro hockey where he had never been a starter anywhere, where he had never played more than 43 games in a season, and played more than 30 games in a season only twice, he suddenly becomes a starter in Arizona. 

And puts up back-to-back years of better than .925 S%.

So that’s a No?

[dudacek]

12 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

So that’s a No?

That’s a who the ***** knows with goalies?

Matt Murray and Brayden Holtby are recent Stanley Cup winners in their prime and are being kicked to the curb. Binnington isn’t good but he was good enough. Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist are the last of the franchise goalies.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

That’s a who the ***** knows with goalies?

Matt Murray and Brayden Holtby are recent Stanley Cup winners in their prime and are being kicked to the curb. Binnington isn’t good but he was good enough. Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist are the last of the franchise goalies.

Can you say Tim Thomas?  I’ve said before that I really want to keep Ullmark and upgrade the No. 2

[Broken Ankles]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

That’s a who the ***** knows with goalies?

Matt Murray and Brayden Holtby are recent Stanley Cup winners in their prime and are being kicked to the curb. Binnington isn’t good but he was good enough. Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist are the last of the franchise goalies.

Three options:

• Holtby UFA.  Costs nothing other than higher than desired AAV.  
• Kuemper (or equivalence) trade.  Lower AAV but cost is somewhere north of a three and south of a one.
• Fluery.  Higher AAV, more than proven, and due to Cap issues in Vegas you can probably obtain another asset for taking this contract.  Thinking the equivalent of a low first.  (This is the only way Vegas can sign Lehner).

I suppose keeping the status quo is an option but I’ve moved on from Hutts and presume KA has too.   What is best for the Sabres in 2021?

[Broken Ankles]

21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Can you say Tim Thomas?  I’ve said before that I really want to keep Ullmark and upgrade the No. 2

Yeah, we certainly would not want a Conn Symthe or Vezina winner on this team.😏

Just because the AAV might be higher than Ullmark, this doesn’t mean Darcy is penciled in as the #1.   This plan would qualify as upgrading the 2.  

[jsb]

16 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Krug is a very good player, and in the abstract I'd be happy to add him to the lineup, but IMHO the Sabres need to allocate that cap space to a 2C or 2RW (or both) who is too expensive for his current team to keep.

Krug has already said he's not taking a discount this contract year. I believe he said he's going for the money this time around, no way he's coming here. 

If Tampa keeps winning and possibly takes the cup does their salary cap situation get even worse?? They've escaped by the skin of their teeth before, I think they're the team to go after this coming offseason. J.T. Miller looked awfully good in the playoffs for the Canucks do you think that they're questioning that 1st they gave up for him??

Edited September 5, 2020 by jsb

[Marvin]

17 minutes ago, jsb said:

Krug has already said he's not taking a discount this contract year. I believe he said he's going for the money this time around, no way he's coming here. 

If Tampa keeps winning and possibly takes the cup does their salary cap situation get even worse?? They've escaped by the skin of their teeth before, I think they're the team to go after this coming offseason. J.T. Miller looked awfully good in the playoffs for the Canucks do you think that they're questioning that 1st they gave up for him??

It is possible that if Tampa wins, then their players on the NTCs might be willing to move to the "right location."  High state taxes and a dysfunctional organisation are not optimal selling points, though.

[Gatorman0519]

On 9/2/2020 at 4:14 PM, Thorny said:

Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart

Olofsson - Kahun - Johansson

Thompson - Lazar - Okposo

X - X - X 

Dahlin - Ristolainen

McCabe - Montour

Miller - Jokiharju

Hutton

Ullmark

- - - 

This is our current roster composed of established NHL players, including RFAs, season starts in 3 months. We've got Asplund, Cozens, Mittelstadt, Ruotsalainen, and whatever trades and UFA signings we can muster in those months as potential supplements. 

As of now, I count 9/20 slots adequately filled. Players currently slotted in a role where we can EXPECT them to produce adequately, for that relative role. Eichel, Skinner, Reinhart, Olofsson, Dahlin, McCabe, Montour, Jokijarju, and Ullmark. 

Any 2 of Risto, Montour, Jokijarju can represent those adequately filled bottom-4 RHD roles I listed (and I'd listen to an argument for all 3 roles being competently filled, depending on how much load Dahlin is ready to carry), and Ullmark is definitely a solid backup, at least, at this stage. There's still a hole on the LHD side. 

F - 4/12

D - 4/6

G - 1/2

*It should be noted that the hope lies in the fact that there are several "two birds, one stone" scenarios available to us. Ie - properly filling in the second line bumps several others down to an adequate position.

Dear God we are set to break the longest playoff drought streak without a miracle.