Rumor: About Botterill’s Future Being in Doubt

[TrueBlueGED]

4 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It's still on the GM to verify the information. 

Oh, it's not a defense of Botterill. Just potentially more evidence that the team's data operation is...not up to par. 

[Curt]

24 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

It probably says more about Jason Nightengale than Jason Botterill. If we assume the Sabres have an internal xG model that differs from the public models, it probably says nicer things about current players than the public models. Given the team is mediocre (at best) with a laundry list of useless forward acquisitions, the internal model stinks. 

This may or may not be true.  I would not be surprised in the least if they did not have an internal xG model.  The fact that Nightingale has been with the team for 7 years through 3 GM tenures, is hardly ever mentioned at all by anyone, and seems to be a department of one leads me to believe that whatever Buffalo is doing with analytics is probably pretty basic stuff.

Additionally, if Botterill doesn’t think Nightingale is able to provide valuable information, then he should replace him, or hire him additional help.

[triumph_communes]

Burn bad statisticians burn. Botterill light that fire. xG is not predictive of anything. 

Edited March 6, 2020 by triumph_communes

[Pimlach]

5 hours ago, Kruppstahl said:

As I've said elsewhere around here, Joker was a good get IMO.  I like that addition a lot.  It's a good example of how a good GM would have created a much better team by now...by adding guys like that up and down the lineup.  No one famous, not many assets given up in exchange, but suddenly we are just a lot better team due to the additions of "nobodies" that can play hockey.  A GM is supposed to know how to find and acquire players like that. 

Unfortunately, that (and Skinner) are the only 2 positives Botterill has done, but the ROR negative outweighs both of them.  All the other moves haven't amounted to anything. 

 

Totally agree.   Such as when I found Jim Lorentz, Rene Robert, and Don Luce and made 3 lines much better.  

Edited March 6, 2020 by Pimlach

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, triumph_communes said:

Burn bad statisticians burn. Botterill light that fire. xG is not predictive of anything. 

Total coincidence our's sucks and we don't score

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

This is pretty damning.  I mean, it’s true, and no number is perfect, but scoring chances and expected goals can’t just be dismissed.  

I certainly didn’t take that to be what Botterill was saying at all. What he said was that expected goals was a subjective stat that is not measured consistently from analyst to analyst. He didn’t say the measure was useless, he implied what you might read on Twitter is as reliable as the shot clock at the old Boston Garden.

Schopp tried to push him on the issue and he stonewalled. 

49 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

It probably says more about Jason Nightengale than Jason Botterill. If we assume the Sabres have an internal xG model that differs from the public models, it probably says nicer things about current players than the public models. Given the team is mediocre (at best) with a laundry list of useless forward acquisitions, the internal model stinks. 

This Is a far more likely interpretation of what is going on.

[Pimlach]

Sabres picking it up.  Skinner looking better lately.  

[Pimlach]

We have to hit the net more and keep getting bodies in front.  
 

 

[Weave]

1 minute ago, Pimlach said:

Sabres picking it up.  Skinner looking better lately.  

Wrong door.

[Pimlach]

Just now, Weave said:

Wrong door.

Oh yes, right.  

[Pimlach]

Edit 

Edited March 6, 2020 by Pimlach

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, Thorny said:

It's not that. Read the tea leaves. The team is preparing us for exactly what their plan is: to again not address the centre ice position. 

I think Cozens will be ready too! But they are going to have him penciled in for much too high of a role. 

I'm sure his winger will be Wayne Simmonds based on the fact Botterill is itching to offer him a new contract. 

Totally get what you're saying and fully expect that to be the case. I want a 2C too, but have said before I don't see how we get one (unless you move Reinhart). We do not have a lot of desirable pieces to move and the UFA class is weak. not to mention no trade clause guys don't put us on their lists.

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

But expecting him to be your 2c is insane. He might not be that for another 2 years. Botterill is like a magician trying the same card trick for the 30th time and everyone already knows how it works. 

Don't disagree. I'd want him on the 4th lien to start as well as giving him a little PP time and then moving him up to 3rd line as he adjusts and earns it. 2C is asking too much of the kid for sure, but it is the likely scenario. 

[Gatorman0519]

JBot seat is on fire now 

[Zamboni]

6 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

JBot seat is on fire now 

Says you. And fans who want that to be true. 
Until it’s actually fact ... I’m gonna think he’s not on the hot seat. And he still has the full confidence of Pegula to turn this around by October. 
 

But hey, maybe he’ll be fired April 5th... who knows lol.

[Randall Flagg]

Was Jason just being defensive there or does he really believe this team generates an acceptable amount of offense?

"behind their NHL norms" might actually truly be his view of this hockey team 

he wants to sign Simmonds?

get this man out 

[Curt]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

I certainly didn’t take that to be what Botterill was saying at all. What he said was that expected goals was a subjective stat that is not measured consistently from analyst to analyst. He didn’t say the measure was useless, he implied what you might read on Twitter is as reliable as the shot clock at the old Boston Garden.

Schopp tried to push him on the issue and he stonewalled. 

Fair enough.  I haven’t listened to the full interview yet.  I’ll have to do that and get the full context.

[Brawndo]

4 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

It probably says more about Jason Nightengale than Jason Botterill. If we assume the Sabres have an internal xG model that differs from the public models, it probably says nicer things about current players than the public models. Given the team is mediocre (at best) with a laundry list of useless forward acquisitions, the internal model stinks. 

Or is Botterill only  asking that the information he gets justifies the moves he has made or wants to make? 

[Cascade Youth]

Boycott.

[TrueBlueGED]

8 hours ago, Brawndo said:

Or is Botterill only  asking that the information he gets justifies the moves he has made or wants to make? 

Nighhtengale either has no influence or provides poor guidance, but it's not a Botterill thing--the apparent lack of use of stats stretches across 3 GMs now. 

[Gatorman0519]

9 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Says you. And fans who want that to be true. 
Until it’s actually fact ... I’m gonna think he’s not on the hot seat. And he still has the full confidence of Pegula to turn this around by October. 
 

But hey, maybe he’ll be fired April 5th... who knows lol.

We will see for sure.  But if we go something like 2-12 like we did last March (and pretty much the two previous months of March),  which looks likely at this point, he can’t put it on the coach anymore.  It’s just how the business runs.  

Edited March 6, 2020 by Gatorman0519

[LGR4GM]

50 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Nighhtengale either has no influence or provides poor guidance, but it's not a Botterill thing--the apparent lack of use of stats stretches across 3 GMs now. 

Agree and even if the idea that what we find on twitter is different then what they produce, what we find on twitter has consistently shown moves that make no sense. Frolic, Simmonds, ROR trade, etc... are moves that get made and can easily be checked using xGF models and even things like CF% and HDSC% and everytime we bring players that have bad or mediocre shot metrics and do not create offense for others. Kahun might be the only exception and he got 1 shift after helping his team score last night. I think Botterill and Krueger need to go and this team needs to stop hiring like it's 2004 and start hiring like it is 2024. Analytics are important. They aren't the be all end all but they can help you understand some things and these organization clearly does not use them to any effect. 

[Brawndo]

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Nighhtengale either has no influence or provides poor guidance, but it's not a Botterill thing--the apparent lack of use of stats stretches across 3 GMs now. 

The former portion of this statement is spot on.  

[Randall Flagg]

I just listened to the interview. 

There is a good chance that we are looking back at this time wondering why the hell we ever let this guy handle our roster for three years

I've never felt this bleak about this team

He has no idea what the problems with this roster are, he thinks it's just players not doing what they are capable of, and that changing lines and magic Ralph words will fix it 

He is unaware of the problems his decisions with Tage and Mitts caused, and is about to do the same to Dylan

He doesn't understand our offensive zone woes and will not know how to find players that play in a way that fixes them

This is unreal 

[LGR4GM]

13 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Was Jason just being defensive there or does he really believe this team generates an acceptable amount of offense?

"behind their NHL norms" might actually truly be his view of this hockey team 

he wants to sign Simmonds?

get this man out 

Is he a reflection of what Terry believes?

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I just listened to the interview. 

There is a good chance that we are looking back at this time wondering why the hell we ever let this guy handle our roster for three years

I've never felt this bleak about this team

He has no idea what the problems with this roster are, he thinks it's just players not doing what they are capable of, and that changing lines and magic Ralph words will fix it 

He is unaware of the problems his decisions with Tage and Mitts caused, and is about to do the same to Dylan

He doesn't understand our offensive zone woes and will not know how to find players that play in a way that fixes them

This is unreal 

Yup

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Is he a reflection of what Terry believes?

I was just going to add, I guarantee that all makes sense to Terry and he's completely oblivious to how much Jason is floundering. He probably views this whole thing as a big mystery