We need a complete offensive overhaul

[triumph_communes]

Reinhart plays too passive when paired with Eichel. He also isn’t a ying to Oloffson’s yang on the forecheck. Our top line has been too silent lately. 
 

Break them up!!!!

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

A reminder from when I did the math on January 15th: 

(in the last 3 seasons)

He has 25 goals and 67 points with Eichel and 20 goals and 21 assists without him. Prorating these rates out for a full season, we would have: 

With Eichel: 82 games, ~16 even strength goals, ~42 even strength points
Without Eichel: 82 games, ~21 even strength goals, ~43 even strength points

You should hang onto stats like this ... because like clockwork, someone will post in about 2-7 days from now ... “I wonder if Reinhart is any good away from Eichel”. Or “Reinhart wouldn’t be nearly as productive away from Eichel” 

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Reinhart plays too passive when paired with Eichel. He also isn’t a ying to Oloffson’s yang on the forecheck. Our top line has been too silent lately. 

It might surprise regular listeners, but I would never play Sam with Jack except we’re up or down a goal late.
It’s not that they don’t work well together, it’s just that Sam needs to be forced into being the top dog on his line.

He’s way too deferential to Jack. Dan Bylsma and Tim MUrray ***** up Sam’s development so badly, by not giving him some decent wingers in year two and letting him take his lumps as a centre. And after Phil, it’s too far gone to change.

Edited February 29, 2020 by dudacek

[Taro T]

49 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

You should hang onto stats like this ... because like clockwork, someone will post in about 2-7 days from now ... “I wonder if Reinhart is any good away from Eichel”. Or “Reinhart wouldn’t be nearly as productive away from Eichel” 

Fine.  Play Reinhart with O'Reilly if he isn't with Eichel.  What?  That's not an option anymore?  Well then you won't see him stay on his same pace, nor will you see Eichel stay on his either (even if he were 100%).  The O'Reilly usage skews Sam's #'s away from Eichel upward.

45 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It might surprise regular listeners, but I would never play Sam with Jack except we’re up or down a goal late.
It’s not that they don’t work well together, it’s just that Sam needs to be forced into being the top dog on his line.

He’s way too deferential to Jack. Dan Bylsma and Tim MUrray ***** up Sam’s development so badly, by not giving him some decent wingers in year two and letting him take his lumps as a centre. And after Phil, it’s too far gone to change.

So, who do you put on Eichel's wing if not Reinhart?

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

So, who do you put on Eichel's wing if not Reinhart?

Mojo and Ollie.

Sam centres Jeff and Simmonds.

Lazar Vesey and Kahun line four, with Vesey moving up if someone sucks defensively and Kahun if someone sucks offensively

[PerreaultForever]

While this chart is interesting, it doesn't tell a complete picture. You can't measure the offense as if it lives in a void separate from the defense. If your team plays a defensive system that reduces opposition scoring chances you're often likely to lower your own offensive numbers. The two sides of the coin need to be considered together to have real meaning.

Leaving the defensive side out of the equation is why teams like the Leafs look so good on this chart but in reality don't have a hope in hell of winning the cup. 

Does our offense need to be better though, absolutely. 

[Curt]

22 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

While this chart is interesting, it doesn't tell a complete picture. You can't measure the offense as if it lives in a void separate from the defense. If your team plays a defensive system that reduces opposition scoring chances you're often likely to lower your own offensive numbers. The two sides of the coin need to be considered together to have real meaning.

Leaving the defensive side out of the equation is why teams like the Leafs look so good on this chart but in reality don't have a hope in hell of winning the cup. 

Does our offense need to be better though, absolutely. 

The first chart is showing xG share.  Expected goals minus expected goals against.  It’s taking into account both the shots a team takes and allows.

[PerreaultForever]

17 minutes ago, Curt said:

The first chart is showing xG share.  Expected goals minus expected goals against.  It’s taking into account both the shots a team takes and allows.

Yes, the first chart is more meaningful to me and that has us closer to the middle of the pack. I was mostly critiquing the second quality/quantity quadrant thing that was being referenced with us at the bottom and Montreal disproportionately good. 

[SabresBillsFan]

18 hours ago, WildCard said:

Exactly. We're going to find out one way or another this offseason just how good Botterill is

I don’t think he’s that good at all. As a life long Sabres fan who moved away back in 89 this organization is just one big mess from top to bottom. Buffalo fans deserve so much more then what they get year in and year out. I don’t even know where I would begin because this organization has major faults from top to bottom.  The Pegulas should be pissed and demand more from each and everyone in this organization to be better and to not settle for just a paycheck. 

[Thorner]

20 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

The offense is bad. We need to overhaul it. We should probably replace 4-5 forwards this offseason to rebalance the lines and turn this trend around. Being where Detroit is on this chart is a terrible sign. Our shot quantity and quality is bad. 

 

Winnipeg is horrible! 

[Thorner]

19 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We won’t be doing a complete overhaul of the offense, but there will be significant changes because we only have 4 current forwards under contract.  
We have 4 significant RFAs including newly acquire Kahun. Jbot is going to retain Kahun, VO, Reinhart and Lazar.  So that’s 8 of the 13 players, with Kahun being the first “long-term” change. That leaves 5 positions to fill with prospects, trades or FA signings. 

UFAs Frolik, Simmonds and Vesey are unlikely to return, but I’m going to assume LGR wants to retain the GLO line meaning that he wants the GM to re-sign Z and Larsson.  That would be 10 of the 13 slots going to returning players, including the newly acquired Kahun.  

We are currently 11th in the East in goal scored and 15 goals behind the team in front of us.  It doesn’t take advanced stats to recognize that the offense isn’t pulling it’s weight.  However you wonder how much better we’d be if VO and Skinner had stayed healthy and if we had at least one other decent center.  This falls squarely on Jbot to fix and he hasn’t and people are right to be pissed that he hasn’t.  It’s been 2 seasons without a solution and that is to long. 

However, our goal differential, which is a better indicator of a playoff caliber team, is down to -12.  Not great but decent and a vast improvement.  It’s decreased from -81 to -45 to now -12 in the last 3 years.  Had VO and Skinner stayed healthy we’d probably be at break even and at or very near a playoff spot.  

As we discussed in the 2C thread, getting the right player to feed Skinner is the most critical thing we do this summer. For cap reasons the 3C is most likely to be Cozens or Mitts. The other truly missing piece is a 2RW, but this isn’t as critical.  However we had been stuck at 4 top 6 forwards and it would be nice to have 6. 

As I’ve said in the 2C thread, we have a top line, a 2LW and a solid 4th line.  That leaves Jbot to decide on/acquire 5 middle 6 players - MoJo, Kahun, Cozens, Mitts, and Thompson are the internal candidates for those jobs, but I believe and I’m sure LGR hopes that Jbot goes outside the organization to for at least the 2C.

 

 

 

Ehhh. Pretty unlikely. We are 10 points back. Them being healthy accounts for 10 standings points over just the games they missed? Extremely doubtful.

Edited February 29, 2020 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Reinhart plays too passive when paired with Eichel. He also isn’t a ying to Oloffson’s yang on the forecheck. Our top line has been too silent lately. 
 

Break them up!!!!

I agree. I'd put skinner with Reinhart. 

[Second Line Center]

2 top 6 forwards that includes a Center.

A legit NHL goalie.  

 

The fact Botts hasn't gotten this done is beyond insane to me.  

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Second Line Center said:

2 top 6 forwards that includes a Center.

A legit NHL goalie.  

 

The fact Botts hasn't gotten this done is beyond insane to me.  

Hasn't done it in 2 years. 

[pi2000]

Hoping that once the playoffs are far enough out of reach RK swaps Skinner and Reinhart for the last 10-15 games or so. 

Or maybe have Reinhart center Skinner and Kahun... for a bit and put Johansson on Eichel's line.     

For the amount of money they're going to have to throw at Reinhart, we need to see what this version of him can do away from Jack.

 

[Marvin]

In all questions below, assume that Dominik Kahun does not become a centre and that none of Mittlestadt, Cozens, or a draft pick are ready to be an NHL centre next season or the season after in a 2C role.  I am assuming that all 3 are NHL players by then, although you don't need to.

1. Thread cross-over question: How much does getting a competent 2C help our scoring?  I am thinking of the bottom half of 2C's in the league.

2. In-thread question: How much does getting a defencive-minded 3C with a modicum of skill (think somewhere between Mike Peca and Stu Barnes) help our scoring?

3. In-thread question: how much does getting a highly skilled 3C with defencive flaws (think Cody Hodgson without the health problems and personal issues) help our scoring?

4. If you can only get a 3C with flaws, how do you build the Sabres to be a legitimate Cup threat?

[LGR4GM]

You draft and develop well. Something the Sabres have not bothered doing since 2004

[Curt]

2 hours ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

In all questions below, assume that Dominik Kahun does not become a centre and that none of Mittlestadt, Cozens, or a draft pick are ready to be an NHL centre next season or the season after in a 2C role.  I am assuming that all 3 are NHL players by then, although you don't need to.

1. Thread cross-over question: How much does getting a competent 2C help our scoring?  I am thinking of the bottom half of 2C's in the league.

2. In-thread question: How much does getting a defencive-minded 3C with a modicum of skill (think somewhere between Mike Peca and Stu Barnes) help our scoring?

3. In-thread question: how much does getting a highly skilled 3C with defencive flaws (think Cody Hodgson without the health problems and personal issues) help our scoring?

4. If you can only get a 3C with flaws, how do you build the Sabres to be a legitimate Cup threat?

1) I think that getting even a 15-25 goal, 40-50 point 2C who plays at least average D would help a lot.

2) I think those two guys you listed are both 2C’s.

3) It would still help.

4) If a lower end 2C or high end 3C is acquired to fill the role, that’s not ideal, and isn’t going to get Buffalo to Cup contender status, but it would help the team and provide some cover for Cozens/Mitts as they hopefully grow into the 2C role.  It would be an improvement.

[Thorner]

12 minutes ago, Curt said:

1) I think that getting even a 15-25 goal, 40-50 point 2C who plays at least average D would help a lot.

2) I think those two guys you listed are both 2C’s.

3) It would still help.

4) If a lower end 2C or high end 3C is acquired to fill the role, that’s not ideal, and isn’t going to get Buffalo to Cup contender status, but it would help the team and provide some cover for Cozens/Mitts as they hopefully grow into the 2C role.  It would be an improvement.

As long as it's not a left shot, "nAtUrAl cEnTrE" who's played wing for the past 5 years like the GM likes to add. 

[LGR4GM]

Complete overhaul

 

[LGR4GM]

 

One of the most frustrating things to hear from the Sabres is how they just "didn't finish their chances" because it really is BS. Most teams miss a bunch of chances per game. The problem the Sabres have is that they generate so few chances that they amplify the ones that they miss. It is not a surprise at all that they think they just need to finish those chances as opposed to the more logical conclusion that you need to generate more chances. There quantity and quality remain below average and hinder their ability to consistently score. It is another example of why you do not bring in offensive passengers. Kahun has literally been the only bright spot between Frolic, Simmonds and Kahun when it comes to actually generating offense. 

[darksabre]

If only someone in a position of power were able to add more offensive talent to the Sabres, perhaps back in August of 2019, when it was obvious that this is how things were going to play out.

Vladimir Sobotka, 2nd Line RW.

[LGR4GM]

More evidence the sabres do not generate enough chances but are good at preventing chances. 

 

Edited March 9, 2020 by LGR4GM

[SwampD]

Did we really need more evidence?

We all watch the games.

[pi2000]

Also doesn't help that their PP% is 5th worst, and PK% is dead last... one of the worst PK%'s in the history of the game.   

Regarding special teams, I'd argue they're struggle because of poor FOW%, and poor goaltending.