We need a complete offensive overhaul

[Taro T]

13 minutes ago, Ruff Around The Edges said:

 

This is all assuming Jack keeps playing through the hand injury he currently has

Is it a hand injury?  Was thinking it might be ribs or shoulder.  AFAIK, they haven't even admitted he's dinged up.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

I think generally he only shows up when the team is losing.  When the team is playing well he’s invisible. 

Sabres record in games Sam got points this year: 20/12/3

Sabres record in games he didn't: 9/14/3

[triumph_communes]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sabres record in games Sam got points this year: 20/12/3

Sabres record in games he didn't: 9/14/3

Is that not a lesser Jack metric?

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, triumph_communes said:

Is that not a lesser Jack metric?

What does that even mean?

 

[triumph_communes]

Just now, dudacek said:

What does that even mean?

 

Is there significant interaction between Jack and Sam for the same metric of wins with points back wins without?  aka What’s Eichel numbers?

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Is there significant interaction between Jack and Sam for the same metric of wins with points back wins without?  aka What’s Eichel numbers?

Sabres record in games Jack got points this year: 25/17/5

Sabres record in games he didn't: 5/8/3

[dudacek]

Sabres have a .585 points percentage when Jack scores, .406 when he doesn't

For Sam its .614 and .404 when he doesn't.

Not sure if that's what you're looking for.

[triumph_communes]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Sabres record in games Jack got points this year: 25/17/5

Sabres record in games he didn't: 5/8/3

Yeah, very similar. Can’t really draw a conclusion about Sam when Jack is having the same effect and they play together all the time. 

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Yeah, very similar. Can’t really draw a conclusion about Sam when Jack is having the same effect and they play together all the time. 

How are you drawing your conclusion that Sam shows well in losses, but not wins?

And having seen the numbers do you feel the same way about Jack?

Edited February 28, 2020 by dudacek

[triumph_communes]

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

How are you drawing your conclusion that Sam shows well in losses, but not wins?

And having seen the numbers do you feel the same way about Jack?

I’m not drawing a conclusion that Sam shows well in losses based on those numbers. That was my eye test. I’m just disproving that metric as counter evidence because you can’t dissociate it from Jack

Edited February 28, 2020 by triumph_communes

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

I’m not drawing a conclusion that Sam shows well in losses based on those numbers. That was my eye test. I’m just disproving that metric as counter evidence because you can’t dissociate it from Jack

So Sam getting points in 69 per cent of Sabres victories doesn't refute the statement about him being invisible in victories because of who he plays with.

Gotcha. It's all about how he makes you feel.

[triumph_communes]

Just now, dudacek said:

So Sam getting points in 69 per cent of Sabres victories doesn't refute the statement about him being invisible in victories because of who he plays with.

Gotcha. It's all about how he makes you feel.

Ya that’s basically how statistical analysis works.  Players who shadow superstars are going to get points whether they showed up and hustled that game or not if their coach is always going to pair them regardless. 
 

And the numbers are higher for Jack despite the same percentage. Meaning it’s more likely it’s a Jack effect that Reinhart is riding and not the other way around. 

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, triumph_communes said:

Ya that’s basically how statistical analysis works.  Players who shadow superstars are going to get points whether they showed up and hustled that game or not if their coach is always going to pair them regardless. 
 

And the numbers are higher for Jack despite the same percentage. Meaning it’s more likely it’s a Jack effect that Reinhart is riding and not the other way around. 

Oh I understand perfectly. It's all about how Sam makes you feel.

[Curt]

1 minute ago, triumph_communes said:

Ya that’s basically how statistical analysis works.  Players who shadow superstars are going to get points whether they showed up and hustled that game or not if their coach is always going to pair them regardless. 
 

And the numbers are higher for Jack despite the same percentage. Meaning it’s more likely it’s a Jack effect that Reinhart is riding and not the other way around. 

Well, yes, Jack produces more, but that’s hardly any kind of evidence that Sam is slacking.  Jack is just flat out better.

What would you say if I told you that Sam produces points at the same rate whether he is on the ice with or without Jack?

[spndnchz]

What is “adjusted data”?

[dudacek]

7 minutes ago, spndnchz said:

What is “adjusted data”?

Whatever you want it to be.

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

Well, yes, Jack produces more, but that’s hardly any kind of evidence that Sam is slacking.  Jack is just flat out better.

What would you say if I told you that Sam produces points at the same rate whether he is on the ice with or without Jack?

Over the last three years it's actually a worse rate when he's with Jack than when away. 

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Over the last three years it's actually a worse rate when he's with Jack than when away. 

But, does that account for Reinhart clicking with O'Reilly better than any other teammate he's played with? Because that tandem isn't getting back together anytime soon.

[Randall Flagg]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

But, does that account for Reinhart clicking with O'Reilly better than any other teammate he's played with? Because that tandem isn't getting back together anytime soon.

I'll get back to you on this

[Randall Flagg]

Sam Reinhart, without Eichel and ROR, since 2017-18: 1251 minutes, 12 goals, 21 assists, a point every 38 mins
Sam Reinhart with Eichel, since 2017-18: 2692, 46, 73, a point every 23 minutes.

Removing ROR definitely puts a dent in his production. It makes sense. The two most prominent Reinhart lines sans those two are:
Sobotka - Rodrigues - Reinhart
Moulson/Pouliot - Reinhart - Griffith

Actually, this isn't fair at all - one of these counts power play minutes while the other completely gets rid of them. Let me just do 5v5. 

Sam Reinhart, with Eichel, since 2017-18: 1908 minutes, 26 goals, 39 assists, a point every 29 minutes
Sam Reinhart, without Eichel and ROR, since 2017-18: 870 minutes, 9 goals, 13 assists, a point every 39 minutes. 

That makes sense, since it was rare that Sam was ever without those two AND on the power play, but makes the difference less stark. 

So if you stick Sam with the worst players in the NHL, then his production away from Jack AND Ryan is worse than it is with Jack.

I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for a 2C that can put up 55-60 points in today's NHL, so I'm not worried about Sam's production on a reasonable 2nd line, away from Jack.

[Randall Flagg]

A reminder from when I did the math on January 15th: 

(in the last 3 seasons)

He has 25 goals and 67 points with Eichel and 20 goals and 21 assists without him. Prorating these rates out for a full season, we would have: 

With Eichel: 82 games, ~16 even strength goals, ~42 even strength points
Without Eichel: 82 games, ~21 even strength goals, ~43 even strength points

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Sam Reinhart, without Eichel and ROR, since 2017-18: 1251 minutes, 12 goals, 21 assists, a point every 38 mins
Sam Reinhart with Eichel, since 2017-18: 2692, 46, 73, a point every 23 minutes.

Removing ROR definitely puts a dent in his production. It makes sense. The two most prominent Reinhart lines sans those two are:
Sobotka - Rodrigues - Reinhart
Moulson/Pouliot - Reinhart - Griffith

Actually, this isn't fair at all - one of these counts power play minutes while the other completely gets rid of them. Let me just do 5v5. 

Sam Reinhart, with Eichel, since 2017-18: 1908 minutes, 26 goals, 39 assists, a point every 29 minutes
Sam Reinhart, without Eichel and ROR, since 2017-18: 870 minutes, 9 goals, 13 assists, a point every 39 minutes. 

That makes sense, since it was rare that Sam was ever without those two AND on the power play, but makes the difference less stark. 

So if you stick Sam with the worst players in the NHL, then his production away from Jack AND Ryan is worse than it is with Jack.

I don't think it's unreasonable to ask for a 2C that can put up 55-60 points in today's NHL, so I'm not worried about Sam's production on a reasonable 2nd line, away from Jack.

But, if they've given Skinner a good 2C, why take Reinhart away from Eichel?  Other teams look to put top players together to enhance the production of that top player.  A lot of people want to downgrade Eichel's linemates for a reason that doesn't fully make sense.

If we only have enough support talent to get one of the top 2C's going close to 100% and the other at 80%, we should want 100% of the guy that can score 110 and only 80% of the guy who can only bring 70 (assuming they get a 2C that can do that).

[Taro T]

5 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

A reminder from when I did the math on January 15th: 

(in the last 3 seasons)

He has 25 goals and 67 points with Eichel and 20 goals and 21 assists without him. Prorating these rates out for a full season, we would have: 

With Eichel: 82 games, ~16 even strength goals, ~42 even strength points
Without Eichel: 82 games, ~21 even strength goals, ~43 even strength points

And, again, he was great with O'Reilly, no disputing that.  But he's darn good with Eichel as well.  (And several of those Eichel Reinhart games came when Jack was recovering from the concussion last year when Jack's play noticeably dipped.  Guessing, Sam's stats took a hit there as well, but don't know it for certain.)

And, not harping on Sam's production with Ryan as some sort of dis on Sam, but rather pointing out that it seems silly to a degree to expect he'll perform like that when he doesn't have anybody close to O'Reilly's level to play with if he isn't with Eichel.

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

But, if they've given Skinner a good 2C, why take Reinhart away from Eichel?  Other teams look to put top players together to enhance the production of that top player.  A lot of people want to downgrade Eichel's linemates for a reason that doesn't fully make sense.

If we only have enough support talent to get one of the top 2C's going close to 100% and the other at 80%, we should want 100% of the guy that can score 110 and only 80% of the guy who can only bring 70 (assuming they get a 2C that can do that).

This is true. I had to do a lot of that math in my head, so it's spinning, so sorry if this doesn't line up with what you're trying to say, but I think one of Jeff or Sam should be with Eichel at all times because bad things happen to the Sabres if that isn't the case

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

This is true. I had to do a lot of that math in my head, so it's spinning, so sorry if this doesn't line up with what you're trying to say, but I think one of Jeff or Sam should be with Eichel at all times because bad things happen to the Sabres if that isn't the case

I agree.  And, my preference is that it be Reinhart, until the Sabres have somebody else to play with him that can be remotely as productive.