Solving the 2C Problem

[triumph_communes]

12 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I think we need to see how the season ends up.  Last year they finished with 76 pts, 2 years after JB took over a team that finished with 78 pts.  They currently have 29 wins and 66 pts with 19 games left.  If they go, say, 12-7 and finish with 41 wins and 90 pts, I think most here (but definitely not all) would be inclined to bring JB back.

But if they go, say, 7-12 and finish with 36 wins and 80 pts -- so the net gain is 2 pts in 3 years of JB's tenure -- I and I think most here will be inclined to cut him loose.

Either outcome is quite possible.

Seems like a drastic difference over some puck bounces, especially after we played without 2/6 top 6 players for a quarter of the season. 
 

It really should come down to whether they’re playing good hockey or not. Last two years were borderline hopeless with some positive development out of some at least. This season is good hockey with bad goalies and special teams killing them and injuries on a thin forward corp being a lost gamble. 
 

I’m hard pressed to see Botterill leave unless we lose out and the team gives up

[nfreeman]

27 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Seems like a drastic difference over some puck bounces, especially after we played without 2/6 top 6 players for a quarter of the season. 
 

It really should come down to whether they’re playing good hockey or not. Last two years were borderline hopeless with some positive development out of some at least. This season is good hockey with bad goalies and special teams killing them and injuries on a thin forward corp being a lost gamble. 
 

I’m hard pressed to see Botterill leave unless we lose out and the team gives up

Every team has injuries, and hiccups, and puck bounces.

The Sabres have played some good hockey and plenty of terrible hockey, including the stretch right after the ASG, when they had a golden opportunity to jump into the playoff race with home games against lousy teams and instead crapped the bed.

JB is accountable for the ultimate results.  Those results include the last quarter of this season.  If his 3-year results represent a net 2-point improvement over the last guy -- that's not good enough.

 

[triumph_communes]

20 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Every team has injuries, and hiccups, and puck bounces.

The Sabres have played some good hockey and plenty of terrible hockey, including the stretch right after the ASG, when they had a golden opportunity to jump into the playoff race with home games against lousy teams and instead crapped the bed.

JB is accountable for the ultimate results.  Those results include the last quarter of this season.  If his 3-year results represent a net 2-point improvement over the last guy -- that's not good enough.

 

They didn’t have their top 6 guys until after that little stretch and have been playing great since. 
 

If we had multiple injuries to defenseman we would be in great shape. Instead we lost our starting goalie and what little offense we had 

 

Year after year the healthiest teams typically make the playoffs and the injured ones don’t. Few exceptions

Edited February 28, 2020 by triumph_communes

[dudacek]

Interesting little nugget dropped John Vogl about strike two on Jason’s 2C quest:

“Johansson is on pace for just 10 goals and 25 points. That’s two fewer goals and the same number of points that Casey Mittelstadt put up last season during his disappointing run as the No. 2 center.”

[freester]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Interesting little nugget dropped John Vogl about strike two on Jason’s 2C quest:

“Johansson is on pace for just 10 goals and 25 points. That’s two fewer goals and the same number of points that Casey Mittelstadt put up last season during his disappointing run as the No. 2 center.”

Only Botteril would think a 3rd line LW could play 2nd line Center. The results speak for themselves. 

[PerreaultForever]

43 minutes ago, freester said:

Only Botteril would think a 3rd line LW could play 2nd line Center. The results speak for themselves. 

I don't think he thought that. I think he thought Mitts would develop very quickly and be that guy. This is perhaps stupidity or more likely ego, as in extreme faith in his own draft pick. 

Wanting to add a 2C is obvious and very desirable, but I find the idea of it being possible quite far fetched. It generally rests on a narrative along the lines of "Risto sucks, trade him for a 2C" ignoring that if he does suck, nobody will trade him for a good 2C, and likewise if he doesn't suck we need to keep him or our D will suck. Can't have it both ways, but some people seem to want to.

The only way you trade for a 2C is to trade Reinhart or a large package that guts the future. Just don't see it happening. 

[freester]

1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

I don't think he thought that. I think he thought Mitts would develop very quickly and be that guy. This is perhaps stupidity or more likely ego, as in extreme faith in his own draft pick. 

Wanting to add a 2C is obvious and very desirable, but I find the idea of it being possible quite far fetched. It generally rests on a narrative along the lines of "Risto sucks, trade him for a 2C" ignoring that if he does suck, nobody will trade him for a good 2C, and likewise if he doesn't suck we need to keep him or our D will suck. Can't have it both ways, but some people seem to want to.

The only way you trade for a 2C is to trade Reinhart or a large package that guts the future. Just don't see it happening. 

We’re not trading Reinhart. It will be a defensemen or 2  Of McCabe, Montour, Risto,Miller, or even Joker if necessary plus a high draft pick and Mitts  Here’s a nice fantasy: Auston Matthews for Risto and Montour and Mitts and 2020 1st round pick. 

[Curt]

7 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

The only way you trade for a 2C is to trade Reinhart or a large package that guts the future. Just don't see it happening. 

I don’t think that those are the only two ways.  This hypothetical 2C doesn’t need to be a star.  He doesn’t need to be ROR.

Someone who can be a productive offensive player (40+ pts) while also providing decent defense would help immensely.  This guy may be expensive, but I doubt it would gut the future, especially if it’s a guy around 30 who is more of a 2-3 year bridge to Cozens/Mitts.  The other option is finding a player who may not be fully appreciated by their current team but could blossom in a more featured situation.  I haven’t really seen evidence that Botterill could identify and acquire a player like that though.

[Taro T]

12 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I don't think he thought that. I think he thought Mitts would develop very quickly and be that guy. This is perhaps stupidity or more likely ego, as in extreme faith in his own draft pick. 

Wanting to add a 2C is obvious and very desirable, but I find the idea of it being possible quite far fetched. It generally rests on a narrative along the lines of "Risto sucks, trade him for a 2C" ignoring that if he does suck, nobody will trade him for a good 2C, and likewise if he doesn't suck we need to keep him or our D will suck. Can't have it both ways, but some people seem to want to.

The only way you trade for a 2C is to trade Reinhart or a large package that guts the future. Just don't see it happening. 

Ristolainen doesn't stink.  He's a #3.

But he, Montour, or Miller will be part of the package for a true 2C.  That will hurt the D but not crush it.  They'll still have 2 of those 3, Dahlin, Jokiharju, McCabe, and Pilut with Borgen, Bryson, & Gilmour available to fill in when injuries strike.

And the large improvement that brings to the F's will outweigh the modest D downgrade.

[Indabuff]

7 minutes ago, freester said:

 Auston Matthews for Risto and Montour and Mitts and 2020 1st round pick. 

This would result in an immediate paradigm shift in my sentiment of Botts. 

[PerreaultForever]

37 minutes ago, Curt said:

I don’t think that those are the only two ways.  This hypothetical 2C doesn’t need to be a star.  He doesn’t need to be ROR.

Someone who can be a productive offensive player (40+ pts) while also providing decent defense would help immensely.  This guy may be expensive, but I doubt it would gut the future, especially if it’s a guy around 30 who is more of a 2-3 year bridge to Cozens/Mitts.  The other option is finding a player who may not be fully appreciated by their current team but could blossom in a more featured situation.  I haven’t really seen evidence that Botterill could identify and acquire a player like that though.

Just not sure who that would be. If he's not a "star" not sure he's worth acquiring. 

[PerreaultForever]

36 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Ristolainen doesn't stink.  He's a #3.

But he, Montour, or Miller will be part of the package for a true 2C.  That will hurt the D but not crush it.  They'll still have 2 of those 3, Dahlin, Jokiharju, McCabe, and Pilut with Borgen, Bryson, & Gilmour available to fill in when injuries strike.

And the large improvement that brings to the F's will outweigh the modest D downgrade.

We're going to disagree on this one. A lot of people (not you necessarily, just in general) think our D is okay and imo overvalue Pilut. Mostly this is because it's better than when JBot got here, but they forget just how bad it was. At this point, I think our D is barely adequate and somewhat lacking and thus trading away parts of it would be a big mistake. 

[Curt]

47 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Just not sure who that would be. If he's not a "star" not sure he's worth acquiring. 

You don’t think it’s worth it to acquire a competent 2C?  I would prefer it over playing a middle 6 winger at 2C.

EDIT:  possibilities as C’s who could be on verge of breakout, Adam Gaudette and Jack Roslovic (if it’s believed he could move to C).  Both guys are due for a raise as RFAs.  Do their teams want to commit long term money to them?

Edited February 29, 2020 by Curt

[dudacek]

Our goalies suck and our defence men suck and our PK sucks but our goals against is solidly middle of the pack

Either Ralph is the best coach in the world, or one of the above premises is false. And it ain’t the goalies or the PK.

Edited February 29, 2020 by dudacek

[SwampD]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Our goalies suck and our defence men suck and our PK sucks but our goals against is solidly middle of the pack

Either Ralph is the best coach in the world, or one of the above premises is false. And it ain’t the goalies or the PK.

Dude. You are too smart to get caught up in this.

Trust that others know that you know hockey.

I'm going to start a support group.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, Curt said:

You don’t think it’s worth it to acquire a competent 2C?  I would prefer it over playing a middle 6 winger at 2C.

EDIT:  possibilities as C’s who could be on verge of breakout, Adam Gaudette and Jack Roslovic (if it’s believed he could move to C).  Both guys are due for a raise as RFAs.  Do their teams want to commit long term money to them?

I'm writing this after the Vegas game so my first thought is meh, what difference does it make?

Sure I'd acquire a 2C but it's always a question of what you give up to acquire them. I don't want to see a weaker defense for a mediocre 2C added. End of season I'll look over the UFAs and see if I see a fit but right now I have no immediate fix that doesn't cost us a hole somewhere else.

First question will be how many if any of our UFAs stay here. If they don't, we'll have a lot more holes to fill than just a 2C.

[Curt]

1 minute ago, PerreaultForever said:

I'm writing this after the Vegas game so my first thought is meh, what difference does it make?

Sure I'd acquire a 2C but it's always a question of what you give up to acquire them. I don't want to see a weaker defense for a mediocre 2C added. End of season I'll look over the UFAs and see if I see a fit but right now I have no immediate fix that doesn't cost us a hole somewhere else.

First question will be how many if any of our UFAs stay here. If they don't, we'll have a lot more holes to fill than just a 2C.

UFA C class is going to be very weak. I highly doubt Buffalo finds an answer there.

[PerreaultForever]

6 minutes ago, Curt said:

UFA C class is going to be very weak. I highly doubt Buffalo finds an answer there.

That is what I thought. It was a thin position at this trade deadline too from what they were saying. It won't be easy to find one.

[LGR4GM]

I would trade Reinhart for a 2c. But only cirelli. 

I would then trade either montour or risto to replace the rw hole. 

[Sabre fan]

19 hours ago, dudacek said:

Interesting little nugget dropped John Vogl about strike two on Jason’s 2C quest:

“Johansson is on pace for just 10 goals and 25 points. That’s two fewer goals and the same number of points that Casey Mittelstadt put up last season during his disappointing run as the No. 2 center.”

that is scary! nevertheless in JBotto's defenseI did think Johansson would turn out better then he has. Clealy that was a band-aid solution when he was unable to secure a bonafide 2nd center. or yes he thought Mitts would be the guy (which is pretty bad thinking) The scary part is that unless we trade Sam, there really is no hope of getting anybody half-decent for next year. FA clearly has no one of any real interest so unless we fleece some other team of a stud 2nd center we are looking at another long season next year (and I have no faith JBotto can fleece anybody the way Ex GMTM fleeced Colorado for ROR). Good teams are built down the center and you need those big, strong centers . JBotto has not seemed to buy into that theory as of yet...

[triumph_communes]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I would trade Reinhart for a 2c. But only cirelli. 

I would then trade either montour or risto to replace the rw hole. 

Reasonable, but Tampa’s cap or RD depth wouldn’t like this unless they’re also the team selling the RW. 

[Thorner]

22 hours ago, dudacek said:

Our goalies suck and our defence men suck and our PK sucks but our goals against is solidly middle of the pack

Either Ralph is the best coach in the world, or one of the above premises is false. And it ain’t the goalies or the PK.

D don't suck, and we play a very defensive game.