Solving the 2C Problem

[GASabresIUFAN]

This is not a thread to rehash the we wouldn’t have this problem if Jbot didn’t trade ROR.  He did and we do.  Time to move forward.

So who do you think might be available this summer in trade or FA and what will it cost to get that candidate?  

Other questions:  Are there any internal candidates?  What kind of player do we need to maximize Skinner the player and therefore Skinner the contract?

Do we anticipate that player adding to our special teams?  Does he have to be able to win a draw? What age range are we looking at? 

For me, the ideal candidate is a pass first center who can win a draw and help on the 1st power play by winning faceoffs.  Being able to feed Jack and VO would be a nice bonus.

Cirelli is the obvious choice.  Young, talented and an RFA TB probably can’t afford to retain given the limited cap space and needs on D.  However if they make him available the bidding war will be huge, therefore so will the cost and would they trade him within the division?  I doubt it.  I also don’t think they’ll trade him other then as a last resort.  I actually think they would trade Point before Cirelli.  I’d take Point as well.  However, I think they will try to move two of Gourde, Palat, Killorn and Tyler Johnson if they can get a couple of them to waive their NTCs. I have an interest in Palat and Johnson.  I think Johnson’s role has been diminished because of emergence of Cirelli and Point, but he could be a value pick up for us.  Their deadline overpayments for Coleman and Goodrow indicate to me that dumping two of their 28-30 year old vets is their off-season game plan and not trading Point or Cirelli.

So where else do we look?  What teams are rebuilding, and/or starving for D help or cap strapped that have someone we could use.  I’ve mentioned Henrique before. TBN or other publications mentioned Strome (chi) and Hertl (SJ). Others?

Assets to trade? Mitts, one of Risto, Miller or Montour, Lottery protected 1st rd picks?  What else?

 

Edited February 26, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[WildCard]

RNH is a free agent this summer

I think it will be someone none of us see coming though. Outside of moving obvious players from our own roster, I don't think we've gotten close to who Botterill actually trades for/acquires

[inkman]

4 minutes ago, WildCard said:

RNH is a free agent this summer

I think it will be someone none of us see coming though. Outside of moving obvious players from our own roster, I don't think we've gotten close to who Botterill actually trades for/acquires

I really have no interest in RNH.  Soft as butter on the table on a warm summer day. I don't need mark messier but give me someone who isn't foreign to the concept of hitting.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

RNH is a free agent this summer

I think it will be someone none of us see coming though. Outside of moving obvious players from our own roster, I don't think we've gotten close to who Botterill actually trades for/acquires

That is true, although I did write they he would take a shot at MoJo.

I love the RNH idea, but cap friendly says he has 1 year left at 6 mill for 2020-21.  I could see then trading him to us for a D plus other assets.

[WildCard]

Oops, my mistake on the RNH contract.

Still, if he would do a sign and trade, I would love it.

[Scottysabres]

Calgary, Monahan

Nashville, Johanson

Anaheim, Henrique

Philadelphia, Nolan

Tampa Bay, Cerilli

San Jose, Hertle

I'm sure there are more.

My choices, Hertl first followed by Monahan then Cerilli. We'll have to pay to get, but that's the case no matter which one is chosen.

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, Scottysabres said:

Calgary, Monahan

Nashville, Johanson

Anaheim, Henrique

Philadelphia, Nolan

Tampa Bay, Cerilli

San Jose, Hertle

I'm sure there are more.

My choices, Hertl first followed by Monahan then Cerilli. We'll have to pay to get, but that's the case no matter which one is chosen.

Nolan's so young, I doubt they're moving him. 

Hertle might be available, Sharks could rebuild. I'd kill for Monahan, but I'd be shocked if Calgary moves him

[Randall Flagg]

Monahan is the perfect 2C, but yeah, just because CGY wants a 1C in front of him doesn't mean they want to move on from him

[Scottysabres]

Just now, WildCard said:

Nolan's so young, I doubt they're moving him. 

Hertle might be available, Sharks could rebuild. I'd kill for Monahan, but I'd be shocked if Calgary moves him

Everyone of those players are attainable, if.....the price is right. And that's really what it comes down to at the end of the day, "the price".

[WildCard]

3 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Everyone of those players are attainable, if.....the price is right. And that's really what it comes down to at the end of the day, "the price".

Well, everyone is available if the price is right. I think we're looking at the realistic ones. 

[LGR4GM]

24 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is not a thread to rehash the we wouldn’t have this problem if Jbot didn’t trade ROR.  He did and we do.  Time to move forward.

So who do you think might be available this summer in trade or FA and what will it cost to get that candidate?  

Other questions:  Are there any internal candidates?  What kind of player do we need to maximize Skinner the player and therefore Skinner the contract?

Do we anticipate that player adding to our special teams?  Does he have to be able to win a draw? What age range are we looking at? 

For me, the ideal candidate is a pass first center who can win a draw and help on the 1st power play by winning faceoffs.  Being able to feed Jack and VO would be a nice bonus.

 

 

This is ridiculous. If your main criteria is winning faceoffs but your secondary criteria is actually being able to pass, I can't really be expected to take that seriously. 

[Mustache of God]

We had 3 first round picks in last years draft. The time to get a 2C was using some of those picks in a package to land one. Whatever JBOT does this summer be it overpaying a UFA or overpaying via trade, I don't have faith it'll be the right move. 

Maybe we luck out and land a lottery pick, hopefully that's used to trade for a real 2C who can help the team immediately.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Is Kahun the internal candidate?

Although he plays mostly wing here. He was an effective center in Germany. 

He is a youngish forward with only 2 seasons on NA experience but had 37 pts as a rookie and is on pace for a similar number this season.

[jad1]

If Botterill is still the GM next season (and he probably will be), the Sabres 2C will be 19 year-old Dylan Cozens.  That'll last about 20 games, and then he'll try Johansson again, and then will give Mittelstadt another kick at the can.

Botterill has had 6 tries (sum of the trade deadlines, FA periods, and drafts) to bring in a legit 2C since trading O'Reilly. 

He came close Monday by trading for Kuhan, but he quickly stated that the Sabres will play Kuhan at wing.

So after 6 tries, what makes anyone believe that Botterill will do anything other than put all the pressure on Cozens to be the guy, while continuing to spend all available cap space on bottom six wingers and puck-moving defensemen?

Maybe it'll work.  Cozens does look promising.  ?

 

 

[LGR4GM]

On 2/6/2020 at 2:54 PM, Randall Flagg said:

2019-2020
5 teams in the top 10 of faceoff percentage are in the top 10 of NHL standings this year. 1 of the top 10 teams are in the bottom 10 of the NHL standings.
4 of the teams in the bottom 10 of faceoff percentage are in the top 10 of the NHL standings this year. 4 of the bottom 10 faceoff teams are in the bottom 10 of the standings.

2018-2019
4 top 10 F% teams in top 10 of standings, 3 top 10 F% teams in bottom 10 of standings.
3 bottom 10 F% teams in top 10 of standings, 4 bottom 10 F% teams are in bottom 10 of standings.

2017-2018
4 top 10 F% teams in top 10 of standings, 2 of top 10 F% teams in bottom of standings.
2 bottom 10 F% teams in to p10 of standings, 5 bottom 10 F% teams in bottom 10 standings.

2016-2017
2 top 10 F% teams in top 10 of standings, 4 top 10 F% teams in bottom 10 of standings.
4 bottom 10 F% teams in top 10 of standings, 2 of the bottom 10 F% teams in bottom 10 of standings.

2015-2016
3 top 10 F% teams in top 10 of standings, 2 top 10 F% teams in bottom 10 of standings
2 bottom 10 F% teams in top 10 of standings, 6 bottom 10 F% teams in bottom 10 of standings.

2014-2015
4 top 10 F% teams in top 10 of standings, 3 top 10 F% teams in bottom 10 of standings.
3 bottom 10 F% teams in top 10 of standings, 3 bottom 10 F% teams in bottom 10 % of standings

Got bored at this point.
So, 22/60 top 10 faceoff teams in the last 6 seasons have finished in the top 10 of the standings. 15/60 top 10 faceoff teams finish in the bottom 10 of the standings, an average of one fewer great faceoff team per year.

14/60 of the bottom 10 faceoff teams in the league have finished in the top 10 of the standings, while 20/60 of the bottom 10 faceoff teams in the league have finished in the bottom 10 of the standings. Again, an average of one more bottom 10 faceoff team per year is bottom 10 than top 10.

Of ten top ten faceoff teams in a given year, 3.6 of them are top ten NHL teams, 2.5 of them are bottom ten NHL teams, and 4.9 of them are somewhere in the middle.
Of ten bottom ten faceoff teams in a given year, 2.3 of them are top ten NHL teams, 3.3 of them are bottom ten NHL teams, and 4.4 of them are somewhere in the middle.

I have to say, this is hardly riveting stuff. It seems to be barely better than a coin flip. Sorta like faceoffs themselves, with even the BEST centers in the league at them.

This is not to discount the idea that it's really nice to have guys who are great at faceoffs taking them in important moments. It was nice to watch ROR break NHL faceoff win records as we plummeted to last place before trading him. But I wouldn't let this skill drive my search for players or my team building moves (though, in building a team with a strong center spine, I have to think you'd come across good faceoff players as good centers tend to have this skill).

Gonna spread out the above numbers to count how many times each faceoff split has given us playoff teams:
2014/15: top 10: 5, bottom 10: 6
2015/16: top 10: 6, bottom 10: 3
2016/2017: top 10: 5, bottom 10: 5 (with 3 other bottom 10 teams filling out the next 3 closest playoff teams)
2017/18: top 10: 6, bottom 10: 5
2018/19: top 10: 7, bottom 10: 4
2019/20: top 10: 6, bottom 10: 6

So over 6 years, 35 of the 96 NHL playoff teams have been top 10 in faceoffs, while 29 of the 96 playoff teams have been in the bottom 10 of all faceoff teams. Try doing the same thing for goals, goals against, goal differential, and even shot metrics, and they'll be far more decisive in doling out playoff spots, tbh. The score was a couple loser points away from being 35-33. Again, this argument isn't particularly riveting from a team-building view, even if it's of course better to win faceoffs than to lose them. I think the idea is just that faceoffs comprise a couple dozen out of hundreds of different kinds of puck battles that happen in a given game, so while the advantage is obviously good for any puck battle, their effect by themselves on the standings can be overstated.

Also, I've been noticing that so many times, a center can "win" the battle such that the puck's trajectory on the ice is back towards his own team, while someone else then loses a battle and the puck goes to his opponent. The center gets the L even if he does the better job at puck drop. The opposite happens just as often. It muddies the water quite a bit for stats that have the characteristic that ROR averages only 1.6 more faceoff wins per GAME than a league average centerman. It's relevant - but as game-changing as a billion other things you can also control in your quest for team building

Being a top faceoff team does not correlate as well to winning as other metrics such as shot metrics and goal differential. Get me a center that has a good goal differential and good high danger corsi for. If he is 40% at faceoffs, who cares. 

[LGR4GM]

19 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Calgary, Monahan

Nashville, Johanson

Anaheim, Henrique

Philadelphia, Nolan

Tampa Bay, Cerilli

San Jose, Hertle

I'm sure there are more.

My choices, Hertl first followed by Monahan then Cerilli. We'll have to pay to get, but that's the case no matter which one is chosen.

Philadelphia: Morgan Frost. 

[Randall Flagg]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Is Kahun the internal candidate?

Although he plays mostly wing here. He was an effective center in Germany. 

He is a youngish forward with only 2 seasons on NA experience but had 37 pts as a rookie and is on pace for a similar number this season.

He's an internal candidate for 3C, but they'd better not treat him as a serious one for 2C. Like always, that's not to say he can't blossom and become one, but don't plan for it 

[Doohicksie]

32 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What kind of player do we need to maximize Skinner the player and therefore Skinner the contract?

One internal option that we could try right now (and has been tried on a very limited basis):  Larsson.  He's a decent, not great center, but if he worked consistently with Skinner they could possibly develop some chemistry.  Slide Lazar into Larsson's role on the checking line. 

[Hank]

I think we wait for Cozens to grow into the 2C role, and I'm good with that. 

[WildCard]

Just now, Hank said:

I think we wait for Cozens to grow into the 2C role, and I'm good with that. 

That likely throws away next season though

[Hank]

Just now, WildCard said:

That likely throws away next season though

You're probably right. Personally, I like the way Botts is building the team. I know I'm in a very small minority with this view. 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Hank said:

You're probably right. Personally, I like the way Botts is building the team. I know I'm in a very small minority with this view. 

With all left wings and defenders? 

[Hank]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

With all left wings and defenders? 

I think our D is solid and will be much better as the kids grow. Two years ago it was *****. It's hard to fix all the holes at once. I think we're headed in the right direction. 

[Randall Flagg]

5 minutes ago, Hank said:

You're probably right. Personally, I like the way Botts is building the team. I know I'm in a very small minority with this view. 

Would you have said the same thing the day he was hired, if someone told you "yeah, they'll probably be able to compete for a playoff spot in Jason's fifth year, maybe" ? 

The idea that next year being a wash to wait for his third first round selection to possibly be 2C shows that you're just liking Botterill to like Botterill, rather than seriously examining his work 

Edited February 26, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[bob_sauve28]

16 minutes ago, WildCard said:

That likely throws away next season though

For what? Winning the cup? 

Upgrade the goaltending and we are a playoff team, imo