GDT 2/26/20 Sabres at Colorado 8pm ET, NBCSN and WGR550

[Randall Flagg]

Honestly that one chart would tell me that Risto's defensive zone shot suppression is fine, but that his partner struggles. Which makes sense, as Montour isn't very good defensively, especially when asked to play left-defense 

[Stoner]

It tells me our zone is infested with coronavirus.

[SwampD]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Actually learned a lot from the breakdown of the pp goal by dudacek. 

Me too.

Bumper,… apparently, that's a thing now.

[Randall Flagg]

And those RAPM charts don't tell the story that the analytics community does, when they suggest that Risto is the worst player to lace up skates in the last few years, or calling him an "analytics disaster"

Most of that stuff is within one standard deviation of average, on poor team

RAPM charts aren't interesting unless you have guys pushing 2-3 STDV in several categories 

[Brawndo]

Not sure if this is what you were looking for regarding 2-3 STDV

 

[triumph_communes]

Now show me Scandella last season vs Scandella this season and tell me how those stats are meaningful ?

 

hint: they’re not. Plotting models doesn’t mean they match up with reality

[darksabre]

Here's the thing about Risto: he's not great, but he's not terrible either. He's tremendously middling. 

I'm not sure if the Sabres would be better without him, but I'm not sure they'd be worse either. 

[Randall Flagg]

8 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Now show me Scandella last season vs Scandella this season and tell me how those stats are meaningful ?

 

hint: they’re not. Plotting models doesn’t mean they match up with reality

This is a bit of a silly way to look at it - for example, xGF/xGA peak in predictability something like 40 games out. So, early on last year, his RAPM charts are more likely to tell you about the quality of player he'll be in February than charts of any other stat we have on the planet, which is why they get used in that manner over stuff like "well Scandella has x this stat and y that one so he's having a good year and we'll be good if we keep using him over the next few months" 

I understand that hockey stats don't perform all that well when you cross over to other sports and certainly other fields, but to deny the fact that they can give you some information about the season a player is having, particularly in the extremes, especially if said player is on the west coast and you never get to see him play,  is a bit pointless - you may have a grainy, surface-level point, but if you ever use any lesser-quality predictive or descriptive stat ever to try and tell me anything about a player, you're being even more useless, so. 

That said, if you have tape on a player, watch it before doing anything else, understand the team he's playing on and the situations he's playing in, and then compare it to any data you can find, and you'll have a nice picture of the player. 

 

Edited February 28, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[darksabre]

The only other thing I'll say about Risto is that most teams have players like him on their roster. He's durable and that isn't to be taken lightly. Imagine if the 05-06 team had Risto? 

The only real reason for the Sabres to move on from him at any point is if he becomes too expensive. 

[Indabuff]

44 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

It tells me our zone is infested with coronavirus.

Wait a minute, I thought there was a thread for that somewhere around here...

[Indabuff]

46 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

It tells me our zone is infested with coronavirus.

 

29 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Not sure if this is what you were looking for regarding 2-3 STDV

 

 

Coronavirus and STDs?  Sounds like the team has more issues than talent and grit.

[Brawndo]

One of the better real world examples about Risto is a story that Brian Burke told on Hockey Central. When he was President of Hockey Ops with the Flames, he and Brad Treviling were well into discussions with the Sabres about acquiring him. They brought the trade proposal to their Director of Analytics Chris Snow and asked for his thoughts. He quickly shot down the idea of making the deal because of Risto’s Analytics. Calgary told Buffalo the deal was off.

Now if Brian Burke, who is a throwback to old style hockey, looks at a player who he covets such as Risto with His Size and his hitting ability, but will walk any based on the recommendations of his analytics department makes me value them. 

Now not all GMs feel the same way because Friedman mentioned on The Instigators this AM, mentioned that there were trade Discussions regarding Risto and that some GMs believe there has been enough ground work done for him to be moved in the summer. 

 

[triumph_communes]

42 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

This is a bit of a silly way to look at it - for example, xGF/xGA peak in predictability something like 40 games out. So, early on last year, his RAPM charts are more likely to tell you about the quality of player he'll be in February than charts of any other stat we have on the planet, which is why they get used in that manner over stuff like "well Scandella has x this stat and y that one so he's having a good year and we'll be good if we keep using him over the next few months" 

I understand that hockey stats don't perform all that well when you cross over to other sports and certainly other fields, but to deny the fact that they can give you some information about the season a player is having, particularly in the extremes, especially if said player is on the west coast and you never get to see him play,  is a bit pointless - you may have a grainy, surface-level point, but if you ever use any lesser-quality predictive or descriptive stat ever to try and tell me anything about a player, you're being even more useless, so. 

That said, if you have tape on a player, watch it before doing anything else, understand the team he's playing on and the situations he's playing in, and then compare it to any data you can find, and you'll have a nice picture of the player. 

 

It’s called grasping at straws and lipstick on a pig

Edited February 28, 2020 by triumph_communes

[dudacek]

55 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

One of the better real world examples about Risto is a story that Brian Burke told on Hockey Central. When he was President of Hockey Ops with the Flames, he and Brad Treviling were well into discussions with the Sabres about acquiring him. They brought the trade proposal to their Director of Analytics Chris Snow and asked for his thoughts. He quickly shot down the idea of making the deal because of Risto’s Analytics. Calgary told Buffalo the deal was off.

Now if Brian Burke, who is a throwback to old style hockey, looks at a player who he covets such as Risto with His Size and his hitting ability, but will walk any based on the recommendations of his analytics department makes me value them. 

Now not all GMs feel the same way because Friedman mentioned on The Instigators this AM, mentioned that there were trade Discussions regarding Risto and that some GMs believe there has been enough ground work done for him to be moved in the summer. 

 

I’m curious to see how much Risto’s stock has changed this year.

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Are you kidding? Best defensive d we have? Risto gets caved in defensively in every way. 

As you saw in my entire statement I said he is really a second pairing guy, but, who is better right now? 

In time, if they continue to develop and also beef up, grow, Dahlin and Jokiharju may very well become our solid first pairing, but right now, speaking strictly in defensive terms, Risto and McCabe are the best on the roster.

You hate Risto, I get it. You're an analytics guy and you can dissect his game  that way, fair enough. But what do you suggest as our PK pairing if you trade him away. Pilut? Seriously? Think about it. 

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Cool great. Block me.  

Faceoffs have no correlation to a whole host of stuff including winning but whatever. 

 

Why would I block you? I'm not a child. I don't get into that nonsensical stuff. Not sure why you said it but whatever.

Seriously, if you really think winning faceoffs isn't important to winning hockey games you really need to talk to some more hockey people. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

Yeah, most have thought for ages that Risto is not that good.  I think he just isn’t a smart enough player to fully capitalize on his physical tools.

To an extent, I agree with you.  A team definitely needs a couple guys who can play that PK role well.  In time, I think that Dahlin and Jokiharju will be able to play some PK, even if 2nd unit.  Both need to get a little stronger first, but they are both smart and big enough to be effective.  In the end, I think Dahlin will be able to do everything well.

Honestly, I would try Montour and Jokiharju out there more right now.  It can’t get any worse than last in the league and a franchise record low.

For the future, I hope Borgen can be a 3rd pair/#1PK kind of guy.  He is pretty big and very nasty.  Farther out, Samuelsson fits that same mold, but even bigger (I hope he skates well enough).

As to the faceoff question being debated.  In the nebulous, FO% as a general team stat does not matter very much.  However, in specific situations, like on the PP in the offensive zone or on the PK in your own zone, it can matter a lot.  I think that really good faceoff guys save their best little tricks for those important situations too.

I agree with everything you say here, especially the bolded, except about Montour. I think he is our worst D man in his own end and would be a disaster on the PK. 

I too have hope for Borgen and Samuelsson. 

[Curt]

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I agree with everything you say here, especially the bolded, except about Montour. I think he is our worst D man in his own end and would be a disaster on the PK. 

I too have hope for Borgen and Samuelsson. 

Honestly, the PK is currently awful, so I would try anyone else and see how it goes.  

[Torpedo Forecheck]

5 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

As you saw in my entire statement I said he is really a second pairing guy, but, who is better right now? 

In time, if they continue to develop and also beef up, grow, Dahlin and Jokiharju may very well become our solid first pairing, but right now, speaking strictly in defensive terms, Risto and McCabe are the best on the roster.

You hate Risto, I get it. You're an analytics guy and you can dissect his game  that way, fair enough. But what do you suggest as our PK pairing if you trade him away. Pilut? Seriously? Think about it. 

Agreed, I watch him a lot most games, your assessment is spot on.

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

As you saw in my entire statement I said he is really a second pairing guy, but, who is better right now? 

In time, if they continue to develop and also beef up, grow, Dahlin and Jokiharju may very well become our solid first pairing, but right now, speaking strictly in defensive terms, Risto and McCabe are the best on the roster.

You hate Risto, I get it. You're an analytics guy and you can dissect his game  that way, fair enough. But what do you suggest as our PK pairing if you trade him away. Pilut? Seriously? Think about it. 

They aren't. We have the worst PK in the league. So clearly Risto and McCabe aren't that good. Considering they aren't good at defender 5v5, this shouldn't really surprise us that it carries over. 

Literally anyone else. Pilut, Dahlin, Joker, Miller, anyone else. We are last in the league. We literally cannot get worse. 

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Why would I block you? I'm not a child. I don't get into that nonsensical stuff. Not sure why you said it but whatever.

Seriously, if you really think winning faceoffs isn't important to winning hockey games you really need to talk to some more hockey people. 

It is certainly not as important as you are trying to portray it as. It is like when other posters keep saying the big thing we need from a 2c is that they can win a draw. No it is not. That's like saying Risto is good because he had 7 hits. 

[Eleven]

14 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Okay, now it's clear to me you know absolutely nothing about hockey.

It's clear to me that you've never read his scouting posts/threads if you think he knows nothing about hockey.

[SwampD]

9 hours ago, Brawndo said:

One of the better real world examples about Risto is a story that Brian Burke told on Hockey Central. When he was President of Hockey Ops with the Flames, he and Brad Treviling were well into discussions with the Sabres about acquiring him. They brought the trade proposal to their Director of Analytics Chris Snow and asked for his thoughts. He quickly shot down the idea of making the deal because of Risto’s Analytics. Calgary told Buffalo the deal was off.

Now if Brian Burke, who is a throwback to old style hockey, looks at a player who he covets such as Risto with His Size and his hitting ability, but will walk any based on the recommendations of his analytics department makes me value them. 

Now not all GMs feel the same way because Friedman mentioned on The Instigators this AM, mentioned that there were trade Discussions regarding Risto and that some GMs believe there has been enough ground work done for him to be moved in the summer. 

 

All that tells me is that analytics people are myopic.

... which I already knew.

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, SwampD said:

All that tells me is that analytics people are myopic.

... which I already knew.

Found Harrington's sabrespace burner account. 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

They aren't. We have the worst PK in the league. So clearly Risto and McCabe aren't that good. Considering they aren't good at defender 5v5, this shouldn't really surprise us that it carries over. 

Literally anyone else. Pilut, Dahlin, Joker, Miller, anyone else. We are last in the league. We literally cannot get worse. 

What about those fancystats posted yesterday that support Ralph’s PK deployment. They indicated that Risto and McCabe have been among our best PKers. Sample size is clearly a factor but they are significantly better than the guys you list.

Vesey’s numbers are comparatively bad, which is probably why he no longer PKs. Lazar and Frolik’s comparatively good, which are probably why they’ve become the #1 pair.

I have no idea how valuable those analytics are, but maybe this is actually a case of Ralph listening to the numbers guys.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

What about those fancystats posted yesterday that support Ralph’s PK deployment. They indicated that Risto and McCabe have been among our best PKers. Sample size is clearly a factor but they are significantly better than the guys you list.

Vesey’s numbers are comparatively bad, which is probably why he no longer PKs. Lazar and Frolik’s comparatively good, which are probably why they’ve become the #1 pair.

I have no idea how valuable those analytics are, but maybe this is actually a case of Ralph listening to the numbers guys.

Are Frolik & Lazar actually getting more PK time than Larsson & Girgensons?  They are starting the PK due to Lazar's penchant at the dot, but not sure they're actually getting more time on the PK.