GDT 2/26/20 Sabres at Colorado 8pm ET, NBCSN and WGR550

[Broken Ankles]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

First off, defence on a PP its not about "his man" it's about getting into passing and shooting lanes and protecting against 2-on-1s. Risto starts the play where he should be, between the goal line player, the bumper and the shooter, ready to move to each as the play requires.

The structural breakdown actually happens when MacKinnon bobs and weaves his way into stranding Lazar too high on the blue line, giving him a direct line to the goal and a ton of ice to work with. If Risto collapses he leaves Mac and the partially covered bumper a clear lane to the goal. If he charges, same thing. He elects to split the difference in order to eliminate Mackinnon's shot, thinking he has the support of Frolik on the bumper and Landeskog is in the least dangerous position of the three players he is responsible for.

Unfortunately Landeskog and Mackinnon are really good. Mac attacks Risto, freezes him by faking a pass to the bumper while Landeskog attacks the hole. Mac zips the pass into exactly the right space, and Landeskog beats Hutton on a 180-degree spinaround that 4 out 5 players would missed and another 4 out of 5 would not have even tried, instead opting to stay at home to make a pass, or stuff the puck into Hutton's pads.

The goal wasn't because of a Risto mistake, it was because two really good players executed the PP perfectly. The best defencemen in the league get beat on that play.

LGR - Are you taking notes?  School’s in, son.   You should probably send a ? and move on.  Great analysis.

[Randall Flagg]

Going to elaborate on my Olofsson frustration. 

It's not frustration with Olofsson himself - he is where he is, and is doing the best he can. I think all of our skaters did the best they could last night, which is why we outscored the Colorado Avalanche when play was even. 

We all know the limitations of this roster, and find new ways to rephrase them every single day here. We all know that, if we want good results over a month and a half of hockey, or longer, we need Eichel's line to be the best it can possibly be, and not only outscore its opponents by as much possible, but flip the ice enough to pass momentum off to other lines. 

Olofsson started the year struggling and pretty invisible playing with Jack 5v5. Ralph stuck with it, and he got hot for a stretch of a couple weeks. Since his return from injury, he's reverted back to previous form. If he keeps the play going, we're lucky. He's not contributing more than that though. If he doesn't, it's a turnover, or a missed chance. 

He's scored 7 goals all year while on the ice with Eichel at 5v5, in 48 games. That is the skill he's supposed to provide to the line. I'm okay with sacrificing a bit of the line's potential in order to develop Olofsson, but we've pretty obviously made organizational moves in the last week to establish the philosophy of playing a meaningful March. That means these games are important. The reality is, since Olofsson returned from injury, the only goals scored by the top line are an individual-effort breakaway from Sam, that had nothing to do with anyone else, and a seeing-eye point shot that goes in one time out of 200 from Montour. MacKinnon didn't score last night, but their line shows you why they're a good bet for at least a goal, often too, when healthy, any given night. They drive play in a way that creates and usually buries obscene chances. We have 48 games of our top line not doing this 5v5 to the extent that it is capable of when Olofsson isn't out there, even if he's replaced with a whipping boy like Vesey. I posted the stats elsewhere, but we're up to the line approaching 30% worse at scoring, 30% worse at allowing goals when Olofsson is on it versus when he isn't. It's manifesting itself in losses. The last two games, they've been shut out at ES. Olofsson lost pucks and missed a wide open net with a few minutes to go. I get it, and I'm not mad at him, and I think he's a helluva player. But that lost us the game, and subverts the organizational philosophy. Again, it doesn't need to be a game of maybe, woulda, coulda. It is in film and in the stats. 

He's been back for 6 games. The notable 5v5 plays he's been involved in are as follows: The open net miss last night, and a goal post against Toronto. The Sabres are stuck relying on crazy individual efforts like that from Sam, or fluke plays like the Montour goal, when their top line is on the ice 5v5 since Olofsson's return. Those things can go weeks without happening, and they aren't generating anything sustainable offensively otherwise, they're getting outshot and outchanced and outpossessed. This not only doesn't happen with underlying metrics, without Olofsson, but their actual goal scoring rapidly gets better. 

Unless Olofsson takes a massive step in development right this second, or gets moved off the top line, we are a typical scoring drought from lines 2-4 away from continuing to lose too often to get the meaningful March we'd like. Jack's goal scoring 5v5 has been wonderful this year, and has nothing to do with anyone else around him, and the goal creation from his passing has become more than 50% worse 5v5 compared to last season, when his RW was the same is this year, but his LW is different. He has 1 5v5 point since Olofsson has returned, and it was an end-to-end solo effort. I always say that you need to do everything you can to maximize your strengths if you want to win hockey games, winning hockey games is more important now than at any other time in the season, and 2+2=4 - when our sole strength is an offensively gifted 1C, we need to do the things that had him flourishing more than anything else this year, over the things in which he has qualitatively and quantitatively struggled by comparison. 

This isn't Olofsson hate, as I was perhaps his strongest bandwagoner this past summer, and he has even gone above my expectations. He should of course never be taken off of PP1, and I think he'll come to be an incredibly good 5v5 player. He can still make these developmental gains away from Jack - hell, give him Sam too if you want. It won't cripple him. It may even build his confidence and grow him even faster. But the checking assignment that Jack draws swallows him up and neuters our top line, and I can see it unfolding every shift, and it leaves its mark in every stat there is

32 minutes ago, dudacek said:

First off, defence on a PP its not about "his man" it's about getting into passing and shooting lanes and protecting against 2-on-1s. Risto starts the play where he should be, between the goal line player, the bumper and the shooter, ready to move to each as the play requires.

The structural breakdown actually happens when MacKinnon bobs and weaves his way into stranding Lazar too high on the blue line, giving him a direct line to the goal and a ton of ice to work with. If Risto collapses he leaves Mac and the partially covered bumper a clear lane to the goal. If he charges, same thing. He elects to split the difference in order to eliminate Mackinnon's shot, thinking he has the support of Frolik on the bumper and Landeskog is in the least dangerous position of the three players he is responsible for.

Unfortunately Landeskog and Mackinnon are really good. Mac attacks Risto, freezes him by faking a pass to the bumper while Landeskog attacks the hole. Mac zips the pass into exactly the right space, and Landeskog beats Hutton on a 180-degree spinaround that 4 out 5 players would missed and another 4 out of 5 would not have even tried, instead opting to stay at home to make a pass, or stuff the puck into Hutton's pads.

The goal wasn't because of a Risto mistake, it was because two really good players executed the PP perfectly. The best defencemen in the league get beat on that play.

Also, if Compher actually succeeded in doing what he WANTED to do, getting a shot on goal on the spin-around, it would have not gone in and we perhaps would have survived the PP. Colorado got lucky that when it rolled off it stick, it was on a tee for Gabe. 

[Stoner]

12 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

LGR - Are you taking notes?  School’s in, son.   You should probably send a ? and move on.  Great analysis.

nfreeman is taking an early lunch and asked me to say this is fairly obnoxious.

[dudacek]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Also, if Compher actually succeeded in doing what he WANTED to do, getting a shot on goal on the spin-around, it would have not gone in and we perhaps would have survived the PP. Colorado got lucky that when it rolled off it stick, it was on a tee for Gabe. 

My mistake. It was Compher on the goal line, not Landy. Sending a ? and moving on.

[Randall Flagg]

Simmonds is not gonna give us too much offensively it looks like, but I don't doubt that his presence is part of what energized/engaged us last night, I don't think that was a coincidence. And he hopefully doesn't look to be LOST offensively, completed some solid passes, maintained a few cycles. 

Excited to see Kahun tomorrow. 

And I still can't get Johansson getting mugged out of my brain. It's going to be the lasting image from this game. 

[Randall Flagg]

I feel like Johansson plays center like Larsson plays wing 

[triumph_communes]

Frustrating loss but if they play like that down the stretch then playoffs are a lock. Hope for the if

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

First faceoffs have nothing to do with our pk being bad. 

Second, we have the worst PK in the league and part of the reason is because we put Risto and McCabe out there and they simply are not that good. The 2nd bolded is laughable to me because that isn't what you see. You do not see guys parking in front and magical tips and screens. You see the defense (risto) breaking down and Hutton tossing out huge rebounds. 

Okay, now it's clear to me you know absolutely nothing about hockey.

First, faceoffs are the key to everything. The PP starts in the offensive zone, you lose the draw, the attacking team is instantly set up and ready to apply pressure. You're a step behind from the onset. You win that draw you take 20-30 seconds off that PP and they have to regain the zone. This is really really basic hockey.

Second, Risto and McCabe are our 2 best defensive defensemen, and that's why they are there, but they aren't very good at it. Who do you want out there? Montour? The problem is JBot has focused on puck moving D and not on defensive D.

Why do you think the Bruins are one of the best at PK? Cause they win face offs and they put Chara and Carlo out front to clear those rebounds.

Blaming the goalie for not clearing rebounds is ludicrous. Anyone who understand hockey at all knows you try to give your goalie a clear sight line and you expect him to make the first save. The rebound is on the D. Again, thats basic fundamentals.

You've already forgotten that our PP was pretty good with ROR and PK was much better too. Why? Cause we won faceoffs. 

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, Curt said:

The puck moving D aren’t playing much on the PK though.  All season it’s been Risto, McCabe, Scandella, Bogo on the PK.  Not Dahlin, Jokiharju, Miller, Montour.

yes, my point is he's focused on acquiring puck moving D men rather than on beefing up the back end and giving us solid defenders. 

You pair the puck mover with the defender 3 and 3. The defenders get extra PK time, the offensive guys more PP time. You can't  be one dimensional. Right now Risto is the best defensive D man we have, and it's not good enough. I've said for ages he's a good 3/4 guy, not a good 1/2 guy. 

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

LGR - Are you taking notes?  School’s in, son.   You should probably send a ? and move on.  Great analysis.

I'm good. Take your condescension elsewhere 

29 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

yes, my point is he's focused on acquiring puck moving D men rather than on beefing up the back end and giving us solid defenders. 

You pair the puck mover with the defender 3 and 3. The defenders get extra PK time, the offensive guys more PP time. You can't  be one dimensional. Right now Risto is the best defensive D man we have, and it's not good enough. I've said for ages he's a good 3/4 guy, not a good 1/2 guy. 

Are you kidding? Best defensive d we have? Risto gets caved in defensively in every way. 

[LGR4GM]

43 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Okay, now it's clear to me you know absolutely nothing about hockey.

First, faceoffs are the key to everything. The PP starts in the offensive zone, you lose the draw, the attacking team is instantly set up and ready to apply pressure. You're a step behind from the onset. You win that draw you take 20-30 seconds off that PP and they have to regain the zone. This is really really basic hockey.

Second, Risto and McCabe are our 2 best defensive defensemen, and that's why they are there, but they aren't very good at it. Who do you want out there? Montour? The problem is JBot has focused on puck moving D and not on defensive D.

Why do you think the Bruins are one of the best at PK? Cause they win face offs and they put Chara and Carlo out front to clear those rebounds.

Blaming the goalie for not clearing rebounds is ludicrous. Anyone who understand hockey at all knows you try to give your goalie a clear sight line and you expect him to make the first save. The rebound is on the D. Again, thats basic fundamentals.

You've already forgotten that our PP was pretty good with ROR and PK was much better too. Why? Cause we won faceoffs. 

Cool great. Block me.  

Faceoffs have no correlation to a whole host of stuff including winning but whatever. 

 

[inkman]

7 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

I feel like Johansson plays center like Larsson plays wing 

Poorly?

[LGR4GM]

Thank you. I've learned something important today. 

[Ross Rhea]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm good. Take your condescension elsewhere 

That's hilarious, especially coming from you.

[LGR4GM]

We should be concerned with the fact Krueger has marginalized Skinner so much. That's a lot of wasted cap for someone who should be a feature player. Krueger is interesting as a coach. He does some very questionable things though. The montour and Risto pairing is another example if bad player use. 

[SwampD]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm good. Take your condescension elsewhere 

Are you kidding? Best defensive d we have? Risto gets caved in defensively in every way. 

It’s just not true. Like, at all.

 

59 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Cool great. Block me.  

Faceoffs have no correlation to a whole host of stuff including winning but whatever. 

 

The earth is smoother than a cue ball. A guy falling off of a 1000 foot cliff probably doesn’t care.

Faceoffs matter when they matter. And in those occasions, they matter.

[Curt]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

yes, my point is he's focused on acquiring puck moving D men rather than on beefing up the back end and giving us solid defenders. 

You pair the puck mover with the defender 3 and 3. The defenders get extra PK time, the offensive guys more PP time. You can't  be one dimensional. Right now Risto is the best defensive D man we have, and it's not good enough. I've said for ages he's a good 3/4 guy, not a good 1/2 guy. 

Yeah, most have thought for ages that Risto is not that good.  I think he just isn’t a smart enough player to fully capitalize on his physical tools.

To an extent, I agree with you.  A team definitely needs a couple guys who can play that PK role well.  In time, I think that Dahlin and Jokiharju will be able to play some PK, even if 2nd unit.  Both need to get a little stronger first, but they are both smart and big enough to be effective.  In the end, I think Dahlin will be able to do everything well.

Honestly, I would try Montour and Jokiharju out there more right now.  It can’t get any worse than last in the league and a franchise record low.

For the future, I hope Borgen can be a 3rd pair/#1PK kind of guy.  He is pretty big and very nasty.  Farther out, Samuelsson fits that same mold, but even bigger (I hope he skates well enough).

As to the faceoff question being debated.  In the nebulous, FO% as a general team stat does not matter very much.  However, in specific situations, like on the PP in the offensive zone or on the PK in your own zone, it can matter a lot.  I think that really good faceoff guys save their best little tricks for those important situations too.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

It’s just not true. Like, at all.

If anyone has them, could you show the isolated impact for Ristolainen? 

[Curt]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If anyone has them, could you show the isolated impact for Ristolainen? 

Risto’s D zone Isolated impact diagram.

[SwampD]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

If anyone has them, could you show the isolated impact for Ristolainen? 

I don't know what this means.

I'm going to assume there are some numbers that have measured something that someone thinks is important showing me how bad Risto is.

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, SwampD said:

I don't know what this means.

I'm going to assume there are some numbers that have measured something that someone thinks is important showing me how bad Risto is.

So even if they were posted and explained it would not matter to you?

[SwampD]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

So even if they were posted and explained it would not matter to you?

Show me and I'll decide. It'll still be just one aspect of the game.

Nothing you've been shown today has changed your mind, so I don't know why you expect more from me.

[Brawndo]

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Show me and I'll decide. It'll still be just one aspect of the game.

Nothing you've been shown today has changed your mind, so I don't know why you expect more from me.

Actually learned a lot from the breakdown of the pp goal by dudacek. 

Edited February 28, 2020 by LGR4GM

[SwampD]

Brawndo, I hate those charts. Just give me the salient points.