Practice Report: Tuesday, 2-25-2020

[Torpedo Forecheck]

I like the lineup Ralph trotted out today. It looks decent on paper and gives me some optimism. Skinner-Mojo-Wayne should work in theory. Then the fourth line of Vesey-Lazar-Frolik and Kahun can duke it out and will be motivated hopefully.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, darksabre said:

Barely.

Even considering his long bad stretch of production, and the fact that he's been playing with one or two of the most event-less forwards I've ever seen on the Sabres, as a player who requires a lot of offensive events to produce, Skinner's shift-in and shift-out impact dwarfs that of Wayne. Wayne averages a goal every 241:40 of 5v5 ice time, and a point every 60:25. Skinner averages a goal every 58:00 of ice time, a point every 40:50 (and while he's never been an assist-getter, that is absolutely exacerbated by playing with guys who are some of the least impactful offensive forwards in the entire NHL, while Simmonds' teammates aren't nearly as averse to all sorts of hockey things happening). Simmonds generates a shot on goal roughly every 9:25 of ice time, Skinner gets one every 5:30 of ice time, almost twice as often. Skinner's 5v5 shooting percentage is triple that of Simmonds even with his 22 game goal-less streak. Skinner has drawn 17 penalties and taken 9, Wayne has drawn 13 and taken 21, so you can take all of the goals and game momentum swings that come with these stats and compare them as part of the players' impact. Skinner has almost 50 more individual scoring chances for in almost 100 minutes less play at 5v5, and shot locations incorporated into that data have his individual expected goals almost double that of Wayne despite playing those dozens fewer minutes. Again, this is a bit of a ridiculous feat given that one of Frolik, Lazar, or Sobotka has spent a lot of time on the ice with Skinner. Not to say that these guys don't have their place with him, because of his lack of defensive zone abilities, but it's impressive that Jeff has been able to create chances at this volume despite that. Wayne's defensive zone metrics aren't any good either, NJ was better with him off the ice than with him on it. 

Only the G/A/P argument has them close really, and that's the worst hockey argument there is, because it told me about a hundred times that Tage and Berglund and Sobotka would be better for the team than Ryan O'Reilly. That Sheary, Vesey, Johansson meant that our middle six would be good because 18 + 17 + 15 = a good number, etc. etc. etc. Empty calorie scoring means nothing for me, and no matter how much Marty and PA want to talk about Jeff Skinner, Jeff Skinner's game has a decade long history of being anything but empty-calorie offensively in both raw production and offensive zone impact, and that core is still in his game this year despite his struggles 

Edited February 25, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

28 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Like, do an honest side-by-side comparison of Skinner and Simmonds this season. Simmonds CF% and CFrel are a little worse, but he's got essentially the same shot totals, the same shooting percentage, nearly identical goals and assists through a handful more games. And Simmonds was doing it all on a worse team playing fewer minutes per game.

I'd love to see some heat maps but I bet his shots are actually coming from more dangerous areas than Jeff's too, just by virtue of how he plays the game.

Obviously Skinner is a more talented player, but it's really hard to argue that he's contributing a whole lot more than Wayne Simmonds this season.

The fact that this is even a topic of conversation shows what a big role Jeff’s lack of contribution has had in our record this year. He’s been as bad in the role of scoring winger as Mojo has in the 2C spot.

His poor play is second only to Hutton’s in terms of underdelivering on expectations. Ten more goals from Jeff at the right times and we’d be in the playoff race.

it’s not too late to turn that around.

Edited February 25, 2020 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, dudacek said:

The fact that this is even a topic of conversation shows what a big role Jeff’s lack of contribution has had in our record this year. He’s been as bad in the role of scoring winger as Mojo has in the 2C spot.

His poor play is second only to Hutton’s in terms of underdelivering on expectations. Ten more goals from Jeff at the right times and we’d be in the playoff race.

it’s not too late to turn that around.

I don't know about that. Last season we had great 1st lines and 4th lines, and at this point, Jeff hadn't started falling off yet and was still pacing for something over 50 goals. We played solid team defense and had bad goaltending and bad middle six play, just like this year. And we had an identical record

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I don't know about that. Last season we had great 1st lines and 4th lines, and at this point, Jeff hadn't started falling off yet and was still pacing for something over 50 goals. We played solid team defense and had bad goaltending and bad middle six play, just like this year. And we had an identical record

But last year we had Casey and Tage and Vlad, who have been upgraded to Mojo, Victor and Vesey, not to mention the significant improvements on the backline.

Edited February 25, 2020 by dudacek

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Simmonds number confirms Sobotka will never play for the Sabres again.

Confirmation is not needed.

And this is hardly confirmation.  If he returned it would be easy for one of the two players to switch numbers.

[Doohicksie]

Vesey-Lazar-Folik
Skinner-Johansson-Simmonds

For some reason I pictured Lazar centering the Skinner line, but I'm glad they have Jeff and Wayne together.

1 hour ago, ... said:

HE JUST SMACKED DAHLIN'S TUSHY! Talk about coming in and marking your territory.

I'm pretty sure @inkman just swooned.

Edited February 25, 2020 by Doohickie

[Doohicksie]

56 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Jeff Skinner has not been a worse hockey player than Wayne Simmonds this year

I'm hoping they create and feed off of each other's chaos.

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, dudacek said:

But last year we had Casey and Tage and Vlad, who have been upgraded to Mojo, Victor and Vesey, not to mention the significant improvements on the backline.

I don't doubt that we'd be a little bit better with 10 more goals from Skinner, which I'd definitely like to have, but being able to "place them well" seems to be a bit of a stretch haha. We'd be a couple points closer, going into the same buzzsaw stretch that will likely end our season in the next two weeks either way. 

I always come off as excusing away Jeff's performance, but that's not the case. I'm just currently making the arguments that even this year he is not a comparable for Wayne Simmonds, and that I don't think our standings predicament has much to do with his lack of performance, even if it's not acceptable. 

We've also hit a point where, now that Skinner is playing more normally, I'd like to start to get on management for the fact that he is not being put into situations that maximize what you can get out of him. I don't care if Ralph would rather develop Olofsson with Eichel, but Jason needed to have something in place on Skinner's line that can reliably create the on-ice situations in which he terrorized opponents last season.

It's hard to articulate, but I'm seeing so much of the same stuff out of Skinner off the puck offensively that is being quietly whisked away into oblivion because the potential for the play elsewhere and on-puck was not even close to being met by linemates. This is stuff that turned into some of the best moments we've had in decades last season. I'm watching it fail to unfold over and over and over again, while last year, it kept unfolding in an ideal way because Jack is a monster. Some sort of pro-scouting failure has led to the fact that the Sabres only have one line capable of making this stuff happen.  I'm no longer irritated with the way Skinner is playing because I view his game as being back to normal after a ~28 game detour, punctured by shoulder injury. But the surface level results have barely changed because Buffalo Sabres offensive zone play with Skinner on the ice is materially different this year from last in ways unrelated to Skinner that has changed the environment from one Skinner succeeds in. But Marty says he tried hard because he scored a goal but didn't try hard the game before because he didn't score a goal the game before

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

I'm hoping they create and feed off of each other's chaos.

Mine is that people don't end up too disappointed when they find out we got this season's Simmonds.  (Better yet, we all find out that Krueger is the motivator he's made out to be and we get a rejuvenated Wayne.)

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Confirmation is not needed.

And this is hardly confirmation.  If he returned it would be easy for one of the two players to switch numbers.

The post was mostly tongue-in-cheek, but in hockey culture, veteran players don’t lose their numbers because of an injury. 
Simmonds might have asked, or Vlad already had plans to switch, but “you can use it until he comes back” just doesn’t happen.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

One thing I hadn't thought about - Sobotka's number isn't 17, it's 71, he just had to use 17 here because of Rodrigues. Now that Rodrigues is gone, Sobotka will almost certainly wear 71 if he is back before the end of the season.

At 1st I thought you were gonna refer to the mis-spelled names on recent jersy's as being a reason for this.

[Mustache of God]

So with Sobotka presumably being done, that leaves us with Tage Thomspon and Ryan Johnson from the ROR trade?  Hoping both of these guys work out.

[dudacek]

Just now, Mustache of God said:

So with Sobotka presumably being done, that leaves us with Tage Thomspon and Ryan Johnson from the ROR trade?  Hoping both of these guys work out.

Don’t forget Colin Miller. We acquired him with the Blues 2nd (plus a 5th)

[Randall Flagg]

I'm actually gonna put something together on Skinner this offseason. I firmly believe that we don't need to be anywhere near the ledge on Jeff, as long as Jason does his job this summer. And I will have the film, stats, and arguments to prove it 

Edited February 25, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[erickompositör72]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I am surprised there is no champagne being popped in this thread.

Simmonds number confirms Sobotka will never play for the Sabres again.

 

?

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

One thing I hadn't thought about - Sobotka's number isn't 17, it's 71, he just had to use 17 here because of Rodrigues. Now that Rodrigues is gone, Sobotka will almost certainly wear 71 if he is back before the end of the season.

what a relief!

?

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:

I like the lineup Ralph trotted out today. It looks decent on paper and gives me some optimism. Skinner-Mojo-Wayne should work in theory. Then the fourth line of Vesey-Lazar-Frolik and Kahun can duke it out and will be motivated hopefully.

Why?

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Why?

It's possible, but I could also see that line being an absolute disaster haha

Slumping Skinner, Johansson who hates playing center and has declined steadily while being in that position, and an unknown who is widely thought to be a shell of his former self

[LGR4GM]

33 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I'm actually gonna put something together on Skinner this offseason. I firmly believe that we don't need to be anywhere near the ledge on Jeff, as long as Jason does his job this summer. And I will have the film, stats, and arguments to prove it 

I simply don't see Skinner continuing to shoot at 4% below his average and also being useless on the powerplay. Any marginally decent center should help him explode again. It is a shame that Krueger won't play him with Eichel when that is clearly a good pairing. 

[Torpedo Forecheck]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Why?

A digger, checker, net front presence with size and strength (Simmonds), a playmaker who can skate and handle the puck (MoJo) and a scorer, sniper in (Skinner). The speed match between the 3 is reasonable as well.

[LGR4GM]

I am going to say it. I don't think Jeff Skinner is a sniper. 

[dudacek]

Skinner is a good player still in his prime who happened to suck most of this year.

Ive never felt that this performance will become a long-term thing, only that it has had a much larger role on the Sabres misfortunes this year than some are recognizing.

The fact that the Sabres are having an improved season without his expected contribution actually speaks well to the future.

Edited February 25, 2020 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Skinner is a good player still in his prime who happened to suck most of this year.

Ive never felt that this performance will become a long-term thing, only that it has had a much larger role on the Sabres misfortunes this year than some are recognizing.

The fact that the Sabres are having an improved season without his expected contribution actually speaks well to the future.

If this is true, it's not through "Skinner should have had x more goals by now in his minutes, that's why we aren't in it." Adding goals isn't how hockey works. The thing that isn't working on Skinner's line all year isn't just Skinner being worse, it's other stuff which holds that under an umbrella of things going wrong, and this becomes clearer to me every single new game that I'm focusing on it. 

And what has me so insistent about this today in particular was spending this morning looking at 2018/19 clips that I have saved in memory, compared to what I've seen offensively from Skinner the last few weeks

[Randall Flagg]

ie, if Skinner has x more goals, the Sabres aren't better because Skinner has x more goals, but because the environment in which Skinner is making the plays like I'm watching from last season right this second, x more times this season, exists in place of the one that is currently happening on whichever line he's on the ice with, night after night

Edited February 25, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[Torpedo Forecheck]

35 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I am going to say it. I don't think Jeff Skinner is a sniper. 

Well most knowledgeable hockey people would put him that category of scorer , not checker  nor playmaker nor defensive forward. I mean that's what 35-40 goal scorers are categorized as by hockey people.