The strange analytics of Jimmy Vesey

[dudacek]

When we got this guy, he was described as a defensive black hole who might score some goals but hurt you so much on the other end he wasn’t worth it. Charts were produced that showed him as the among the most ineffective possession players in the league.

That hasn’t matched the eye test. What I’ve seen is a pretty diligent two-way player with OK skill who hasn’t been able to execute very often. Pretty much the opposite of what was described.

So I checked the analytics charts, which I don’t do, and am not real comfortable with doing. They tell me after 3 seasons of awful possession numbers with the Rangers, his Corsi has climbed from a dismal 45ish % to a respectable total of just under 51 % among the best marks on the Sabres. John Vogl tells me he leads the team in ES goal % [whatever that means) at a stellar 61 %

So what is going on here? Has Vesey completely transformed his game? Or are the analytics (before and/or after) painting an inaccurate picture of it? Or am I just a noob, who doesn’t know how to read the charts?

I:ve always wondered how analytics tend to transfer from team to team for traded players.

Can someone please enlighten me?

Edited February 22, 2020 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

ES goal percentage is just plus minus in percentage form pretty much.

I'll let others provide the meaty responses

[inkman]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

When we got this guy, he was described as a defensive black hole who might score some goals but hurt you so much on the other end he wasn’t worth it. Charts were produced that showed him as the among the most ineffective possession players in the league.

That hasn’t matched the eye test. What I’ve seen is a pretty diligent two-way player with OK skill who hasn’t been able to execute very often. Pretty much the opposite of what was described.

So I checked the analytics charts, which I don’t do, and am not real comfortable with doing. They tell me after 3 seasons of awful possession numbers with the Rangers, his Corsi has climbed from a dismal 45ish % to a respectable total of just under 51 % among the best marks on the Sabres. John Vogl tells me he leads the team in ES goal % [whatever that means) at a stellar 61 %

So what is going on here? Has Vesey completely transformed his game? Or are the analytics (before and/or after) painting an inaccurate picture of it? Or am I just a noob, who doesn’t know how to read the charts?

I:ve always wondered how analytics tend to transfer from team to team for traded players.

Can someone please enlighten me?

You are definitely a noob.  Regardless of fancy stat ability.  ?

[Stoner]

8 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

ES goal percentage is just plus minus in percentage form pretty much.

I'll let others provide the meaty responses

I am not surprised inkman was first to provide a response.

dudacek shouting in a big city alley: "Can anybody make change of a hundred!?"

[dudacek]

56 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

 

dudacek shouting in a big city alley: "Can anybody make change of a hundred!?"

You Americans don’t do that?

Edited February 22, 2020 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

We are finding out her is a better hockey player then people gave him credit for.  He obviously has worked hard to round out his game.  Unfortunately for him, Skinner, and Sheary they need good playmakers to maximize their goal scoring.  Makes one wonder why RK kept Reinhardt stapled to Jack all season/

[Doohicksie]

6 hours ago, inkman said:

You are definitely a noob.  Regardless of fancy stat ability.  ?

A noob for sure.

[Thorner]

Last I checked his defensive analytics have indeed been really bad. 

But he's been much better across the board the last few weeks analytically, that's to be sure. 

The thing is, he needs a new contract. I don't see how we can commit to this guy

[triumph_communes]

He’s become a dependable forechecker over the course of the year. As long as he doesn’t ask for a ransom he’s a great 3LW to have around.  It’s not like we have a rookie he’s in the way of

Edited February 22, 2020 by triumph_communes

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

He’s become a dependable forechecker over the course of the year. As long as he doesn’t ask for a ransom he’s a great 3LW to have around.  It’s not like we have a rookie he’s in the way of

True, if there's one thing we have going for us in potential negotiations it's that points pay, and he doesn't have many (19)

Edited February 22, 2020 by Thorny

[gilbert11]

On 2/21/2020 at 10:25 PM, Randall Flagg said:

ES goal percentage is just plus minus in percentage form pretty much.

I'll let others provide the meaty responses

Yeah, he’s currently third on the team in plus/minus at +12, behind only Montour (15) and Eichel (14)

[GASabresIUFAN]

Imagine the heads exploding on this board when Jbot re-signs him to a 3 year 9 mill deal.

[triumph_communes]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Imagine the heads exploding on this board when Jbot re-signs him to a 3 year 9 mill deal.

He’s been playing above replacement with a good physical forecheck. Do you think he will regress to early season when he didn’t know the system or his role?

 

If Sheary didn’t bumble the puck Vesey has three assists yesterday

[woods-racer]

Right now Jimmy's cost per point (per cap friendly) is $120,000.00.

 

If he gets 30 points for the 19/20 season and we use his current pay per point he is looking at a contract of around 3.6 mill per season.

His current cap hit is 2.3 mill per season.

 

Larrson is at $97 k per point and Zemgus is at $89 k per point as a reference guide.

I would expect if we should make him an offer he would be in the Larry/ Zemgus cost per point range of around 2.8 mill per season.

Edited February 24, 2020 by woods-racer

[nfreeman]

I don’t think anyone is going to give Vesey more than a 2-year deal or more than $2MM per year.  

[#freejame]

59 minutes ago, woods-racer said:

Right now Jimmy's cost per point (per cap friendly) is $120,000.00.

 

If he gets 30 points for the 19/20 season and we use his current pay per point he is looking at a contract of around 3.6 mill per season.

His current cap hit is 2.3 mill per season.

 

Larrson is at $97 k per point and Zemgus is at $89 k per point as a reference guide.

I would expect if we should make him an offer he would be in the Larry/ Zemgus cost per point range of around 2.8 mill per season.

There is no logical explanation for having close to $12m on your fourth line.

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, #freejame said:

There is no logical explanation for having close to $12m on your fourth line.

Sure there is:  You have an oft-injured forward that isn't top-9 material anymore, on a contract that's too expensive for the points he produces, but you're stuck with him so you make the best use you can.

Ideally fourth liners don't make make as much as Okie, but there's nothing illogical about the situation.

[Zamboni]

4 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Sure there is:  You have an oft-injured forward that isn't top-9 material anymore, on a contract that's too expensive for the points he produces, but you're stuck with him so you make the best use you can.

Ideally fourth liners don't make make as much as Okie, but there's nothing illogical about the situation.

Yep. KO wasn’t the first, and he won’t be the last player who (for various reasons) aren’t playing up to their contract, and is almost impossible to trade because of contract, and get put on the 4th line for the majority of their time. It happens...

[dudacek]

Of course, the above assumes the Larry line is the 4th line, when it has been obvious for quite some time by usage that it is actually a traditional 3rd line, and pretty good one at that.

[#freejame]

5 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Sure there is:  You have an oft-injured forward that isn't top-9 material anymore, on a contract that's too expensive for the points he produces, but you're stuck with him so you make the best use you can.

Ideally fourth liners don't make make as much as Okie, but there's nothing illogical about the situation.

I still don’t agree with having another $6m on the fourth line. I understand the Okposo portion of it, but you can’t spend that much on the fourth. It needs to be filled out with Lazar and Asplund and we need better third lines and to round out the top six.