Marty Biron criticizing Skinner this AM

[Randall Flagg]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think what @PASabreFan is referring to as “stunning” is the fact that this type criticism is being launched by a Sabres’ employee. The fact that MARTY is saying it, probably means he’s pretty comfortable that there’s a great deal of support for that point of view either within the room, or the organization, or both.

I don't find this idea meaningful

[dudacek]

I see a real big difference between “Ralph is not maximizing Skinner’s potential” and “it’s Ralph’s fault Jeff isn’t producing”

Benoit freaking Pouliot put up similar numbers with similar usage. Jeff needs to play better no matter how he’s used.

[Kristian]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

I see a real big difference between “Ralph is not maximizing Skinner’s potential” and “it’s Ralph’s fault Jeff isn’t producing”

Benoit freaking Pouliot put up similar numbers with similar usage. Jeff needs to play better no matter how he’s used.

True.

[Randall Flagg]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I see a real big difference between “Ralph is not maximizing Skinner’s potential” and “it’s Ralph’s fault Jeff isn’t producing”

Benoit freaking Pouliot put up similar numbers with similar usage. Jeff needs to play better no matter how he’s used.

Benoit Pouliot played more than double the time with Ryan O'Reilly that he did with any other center on the Sabres team, ROR was his leading teammate's ice time.

He scored at about 60% the rate of Skinner, even after these 21 games, with that ice time. Skinner has more shots on goal in 24 fewer games

 

Edited February 20, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

23 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

???

The second part of that simply isn't true.  He drew at least two penalties last game.

??? = goalkeepers

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Benoit Pouliot played more than double the time with Ryan O'Reilly than he did with any other center on the Sabres team, ROR was his leading teammate's ice time.

He scored at about 60% the rate of Skinner, even after these 21 games, with that ice time. Skinner has more shots on goal in 24 fewer games

 

Pouliot averaged 13;41 a game in a middle 6 role and had 11 goals as of Feb.20

Skinner is averaging 16:36 a game in a middle 6 role and has 11 goals as of Feb. 20.

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

When he trades Larsson for a 4th, that's when I'll officially be on the fire botterill train. 

I might also

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, dudacek said:

Pouliot averaged 13;41 a game in a middle 6 role and had 11 goals as of Feb.20

Skinner is averaging 16:36 a game in a middle 6 role and has 11 goals as of Feb. 20.

Sure, a middle six role with Ryan O'Reilly and one of Reinhart or Okposo

I guess we can assume Skinner's cold streak will continue another 20+ games to make removing Benoit's justifiable as some sort of comparison. But you are not moving any needles then

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

Sure, a middle six role with Ryan O'Reilly and one of Reinhart or Okposo

I guess we can assume Skinner's cold streak will continue another 20+ games to make removing Benoit's justifiable as some sort of comparison. But you are not moving any needles then

I am not talking in vague terms about how “good” Skinner is, or will be, I am illustrating how productive he has been.

[GASabresIUFAN]

RK does deserve some of the blame for Skinner’s performance. His keeping Reinhart stapled to Eichel has been disappointment to say the least. Having your two best playmakers on the same line has given us a great top line but really hurt down the lineup.

Edited February 20, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I am not talking in vague terms about how “good” Skinner is, or will be, I am illustrating how productive he has been.

Comparing Jeff Skinner's 2019-2020 season to Benoit Pouliot's 2017-2018 season is simply a bad comparison, even if you're just comparing numbers. In your own defenses of Sam Reinhart throughout the years, I've seen that you understand why "to date" comparisons are useless and we should see what Skinner actually does with the rest of the year, because when doing it in a fair way, their production does not become comparable, and that is before you compare ROR to Evan Rodrigues 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My biggest problem with Krueger and the Eichel line isn't that Skinner isn't there, it's that Olofsson IS there, they just don't play that well 5v5 together as a line. 

My suggestion to put Skinner there isn't because I think Skinner deserves it, or doesn't deserve criticism, but because it will work to fix problems on this team 

Edited February 20, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

My other thing with Skinner is, this Marty "information," and general fan discussion, is copy-paste of what Canes fans and media were saying before, during, and after the Skinner trade that summer. 

The Sabres created a situation in which those comments looked foolish, and we didn't care about them. 

The Sabres then created a new situation, in which Skinner has regressed to the point where these arguments are carbon copies of the ones we dismissed to tell ourselves how awesome the trade was. 

When I point this out, its purpose is not to absolve or ignore Skinner's season. I just find it more valuable to focus on the fact that we are capable of doing my second sentence again with one coaching decision (just like I pointed out while everyone was busy flinging garbage at O'Reilly from April -> November 2018 that he was coaching tweaks from being a Selke winner) and it would also fix an underlying problem that is ACTUALLY one that people aren't talking enough about, that our first line plays poor hockey with Victor Olofsson, and barely wins goal battles we need it to win by quadruple its current rate if we hope to scrape low 90s point totals 

I know that "Skinner needs to be better" and "Skinner needs to produce more" and "Skinner's contract is an abomination" already. My posts just take the tenor they do because it's going to keep on going in this vein while he is in an on-ice situation that is conducive to it, and it gets boring to say this stuff already, much less for the next 8 months 

If there's inside info that Ralph thinks Skinner is dogging it, coupled maybe to some film evidence, and anonymous quotes from inside the locker room that Jeff is mailing it in? Alright, that's something more to talk about. Marty didn't give us that at all, and when I watch Skinner, I see the same guy I saw last year, who is also far more frustrated and thus far more prone to getting down and amplifying the negative aspects of his game. This is a common sports phenomenon and it's really about Jeff and the team working through it together

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Comparing Jeff Skinner's 2019-2020 season to Benoit Pouliot's 2017-2018 season is simply a bad comparison, even if you're just comparing numbers. In your own defenses of Sam Reinhart throughout the years, I've seen that you understand why "to date" comparisons are useless and we should see what Skinner actually does with the rest of the year, because when doing it in a fair way, their production does not become comparable, and that is before you compare ROR to Evan Rodrigues 

It’s not worth comparing the production of two Sabres 2nd line LW to date in two different seasons on a Sabres discussion board?

[Doohicksie]

30 minutes ago, #freejame said:

I think the biggest issue is people look at all the advantages baseball has had from analytics and everyone wants to be the first team to really fine tune it in hockey. The issue is that the applicability in baseball and hockey are different levels of effective. 

The difference between baseball and hockey is that the biggest play driver in baseball is the pitched ball and the batted ball.  That gives you hundreds of data points each game.  Compare that to, say, shooting percentage/save percentage.  You probably have an order of magnitude more data in baseball than you do in hockey. for each game, and twice as many baseball games than hockey games per season.

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, dudacek said:

It’s not worth comparing the production of two Sabres 2nd line LW to date in two different seasons on a Sabres discussion board?

Anything is "worth" it on a message board, I still think it's a bad comparison 

Just now, Doohickie said:

The difference between baseball and hockey is that the biggest play driver in baseball is the pitched ball and the batted ball.  That gives you hundreds of data points each game.  Compare that to, say, shooting percentage/save percentage.  You probably have an order of magnitude more data in baseball than you do in hockey. for each game, and twice as many baseball games than hockey games per season.

Plus, events in baseball are ridiculously isolated/discrete/whatever. Judge's at bats vs. Cole are far more identical data points than even two Skinner shots in the same game from a similar spot on the ice, much less two Skinner shots in general 

[bob_sauve28]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

This has been stated on the forum too... that Skinner should not play with Eichel if he hasn't earned it.  The way I see it, it's the coach's responsibility to get the most out of his players.  You don't play Skinner with Eichel to reward anyone, you play them together because it's best for the team.  There are issues with the team and Krueger refuses to put the two most dynamic players last year on the same line because .... I don't know, he wants to send a message or passive aggressively assert his dominance or whatever.  When he refused to put them together when Olofsson was injured was just dumb.  Skins himself was coming off an injury.  Even if the intent was just to put him there for a short stint until Ollie was ready, it would have been a good way to kickstart Skinner as he joined the lineup.

Do what's best for the team, Ralph, and eat your damned pride.

I'm neutral on RFK as a coach; I'm willing to hang in there into next season to see what happens, but I really don't like the guy as a person.  Never have.  My preference doesn't matter though.  If the players buy in and he can get them to perform, that's what's important.  But still.... don't like the guy on a personal level.  He strikes me as a flim-flam man.

No way, at this point, Olofsson doesn’t play with Jack, no one has more chemistry with him. Maybe, I could see Jeff and Sam play together. 

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

No way, at this point, Olofsson doesn’t play with Jack, no one has more chemistry with him. Maybe, I could see Jeff and Sam play together. 

They don't have 5v5 chemistry, Olofsson is still struggling even though he still learning

i get that this is Ralph's point, but

[bob_sauve28]

6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

They don't have 5v5 chemistry, Olofsson is still struggling even though he still learning

i get that this is Ralph's point, but

Question: Hasn’t Olofssons 5-5 number improved as the season has gone on? He had zero 5-5 goals first part of season 

[Randall Flagg]

4 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Question: Hasn’t Olofssons 5-5 number improved as the season has gone on? He had zero 5-5 goals first part of season 

They have. Meanwhile, they're still not good enough if you want to win more games than you lose with a top line as your team's strength

 

[darksabre]

6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

They have. Meanwhile, they're still not good enough if you want to win more games than you lose with a top line as your team's strength

 

Really, the team's strength should be its power play. And a line with Jack, Sam and Jeff should draw a lot of penalties. Why not just do that and then let Olofsson feast on the power play minutes?

[bob_sauve28]

18 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

They have. Meanwhile, they're still not good enough if you want to win more games than you lose with a top line as your team's strength

 

But isn’t Jack doing WAY better without Skinner? 

[Kruppstahl]

25 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Question: Hasn’t Olofssons 5-5 number improved as the season has gone on? He had zero 5-5 goals first part of season 

Pretty sure he has 8 even strength goals this year.

Skinner still has more at 11! 

 

 

Edited February 20, 2020 by Kruppstahl

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

But isn’t Jack doing WAY better without Skinner? 

No. Not in the relevant minutes. 

Jack-Jeff-anybody last year created far more dangerous scoring chances per unit time and had far better underlying metrics as a result this even includes Skinner's cold stretch last year. 

Eichel - Skinner last year: 845 minutes, 53 goals, 43 goals against, 52% shot advantage, 54.6% advantage in expected goals, 53% advantage in scoring chances, a goal every 15 minutes of ice time, a goal against every 20 minutes of ice time

Eichel - Skinner this year: 58 minutes, 6 goals, 3 goals against, 57% shot advantage, 62% advantage in exxpected goals, 53% advantage in scoring chances, a goal every 9 minutes of ice time, a goal against every 19 minutes of ice time

Eichel- Olofsson this year: 576 minutes, 30 goals, 26 goals against, 49% shot advantage, 46% expected goals, 49% of scoring chances, a goal every 19 minutes of ice time, a goal against every 22 minutes of ice time

Stats stats stats blah blah, Eichel - Olofsson is not a top line that can carry a team by eye test, the last three games the two have combined for one notable moment together and it was just a goalpost. By eye test, Eichel-Skinner is the best Sabre duo/line I have seen since the 2006-2007 team, and hey, the stats agree with that too

[Randall Flagg]

Eichel's numbers are up this year because he's overhauled his shooting philosophy. He could have done this with Skinner, and Skinner is demonstrably more capable of capitalizing on the garbage left over from Eichel's shots that don't go in, compared to Olofsson, who has put in just 7 goals in 5v5 time with Jack over the course of 44 games, something that Jeff could do in 10 calender days last season

[3putt]

1 hour ago, Kristian said:

I simply don’t buy this approach.

Show me a great goalscorer in this league, and I’ll show you one or more great passers. True then, true now.

The great scorers finish. That’s what they do. Others miss open nets, or hit the bar, or just put it right in the goalies chest.

But very very few goalscorers can shine playing, with third liners or worse.

I’m as annoyed by Skinner as the next guy, but to think pure goalscorers should create their own offense, is foolish IMO. Ovies are few and far between, and even they need someone to set them up half the time.

You find a guy who can consistently finish, you make sure he gets set up as often as humanly possible. 40-goal scorers don’t grow on trees, but guys who miss open nets, hits posts or chestplates, do.

Sabres fans, of all people, should know this.

Patrick Kane. Conor McDavid, Leon Draisatl, Nate MacKinnon, Sydney Crosby Jack Eichel.  I'll wait