Dahlin poised to become the highest scoring teenage defenceman ever

[triumph_communes]

Dahlin is one of our few defenseman who does more than pass the puck around the perimeter.  Miller is actually our other defenseman who is good at this as well.  The less predictable the defenseman are the harder you are to play against.  The chaos is how goals are scored.

 

Oh, and Dahlin is filthy good.

[GASabresIUFAN]

@dudacek and @Taro T

Actually Dahlin is probably the best D on the roster.  He is certainly the best offensively.  His in zone D needs work but my guess is only McCabe and Jokiharju are better defensively.  

He isn’t close to his peak but the difference in his own zone from the start of the year til now is substantial. 
 

PS Duda you need compare his game right now to Miller.  Miller wishes on his best day that he is what Dahlin is now.

[TrueBlueGED]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@dudacek and @Taro T

Actually Dahlin is probably the best D on the roster.  He is certainly the best offensively.  His in zone D needs work but my guess is only McCabe and Jokiharju are better defensively.  

He isn’t close to his peak but the difference in his own zone from the start of the year til now is substantial. 
 

PS Duda you need compare his game right now to Miller.  Miller wishes on his best day that he is what Dahlin is now.

You think McCabe is good defensively? Yikes. 

[dudacek]

32 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@dudacek and @Taro T

Actually Dahlin is probably the best D on the roster.  He is certainly the best offensively.  His in zone D needs work but my guess is only McCabe and Jokiharju are better defensively.  

He isn’t close to his peak but the difference in his own zone from the start of the year til now is substantial. 
 

PS Duda you need compare his game right now to Miller.  Miller wishes on his best day that he is what Dahlin is now.

In this discussion, it’s hard to separate talent from effectiveness, plus in Dahlin’s case we’re talking about a moving target, but I’ll do my best.

In terms of talent, Rasmus had more in his first game than Miller had in his best game. That’s not even a discussion.
In terms of the past month or so, Rasmus has also been more effective, even though Miller has also played his best Sabre hockey.

In terms of effectiveness over their careers, they are comparable in that they have probably been top pair offensively and bottom pair defensively. Rasmus has created more opportunities for both his team and their opponents. The strength of each is in transition and they are physically willing, if not that strong.

I guess defence is in the eye of the beholder, but the coach has behaved as if Rasmus is his least trusted defenceman defensively.

In my opinion, Rasmus has passed Miller over the past month or two and will probably never look back. I hope he passes Montour and Risto soon in terms of situational use and all-around play, but I don’t think he has yet. Ideally, I’d like that to happen before I move either. Even better, I’d like to keep the six defenceman we have, because when Ras and Joki hit their stride, it could be a pretty formidable group.

Edited February 17, 2020 by dudacek

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@dudacek and @Taro T

Actually Dahlin is probably the best D on the roster.  He is certainly the best offensively.  His in zone D needs work but my guess is only McCabe and Jokiharju are better defensively.  

He isn’t close to his peak but the difference in his own zone from the start of the year til now is substantial. 
 

PS Duda you need compare his game right now to Miller.  Miller wishes on his best day that he is what Dahlin is now.

There is an argument to be made that Dahlin is their best D-man, but IMHO it is misguided.  He clearly is the best offensive D-man they have, but he still has quite a bit of room to improve in the defensive transition game and in his own end.  (Though since coming back from injury, both have seen large improvements.)

When he starts to deserve and earn PK time, then we can start to discuss him as their best D-man.

[Ruff Around The Edges]

Just look at what Cale Makar is doing for the Avs. Think about that Maker has Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Miko Ratanen floating around on the PP.

Now think about the fact that Makar is 21.

Now imagine Dahlin getting 2 more years to develop physically and mentally, and if the Sabres add 1 or 2 legit Top 6 forwards to the mix.

It's scary how great Dahlin can be. Sit back and enjoy the ride folks. He is just getting started.

[Thorner]

22 hours ago, Taro T said:

We never left it.  He WILL be the best Sabres D-man ever.

But he isn't the best Sabres D-man on this roster.  That seems to be the disconnect.  (And within 2 years he will be the best current Sabres D-man & it won't take him much time beyond that to be their best ever.z)

He’s the best right now. 

[Thorner]

14 hours ago, dudacek said:

In this discussion, it’s hard to separate talent from effectiveness, plus in Dahlin’s case we’re talking about a moving target, but I’ll do my best.

In terms of talent, Rasmus had more in his first game than Miller had in his best game. That’s not even a discussion.
In terms of the past month or so, Rasmus has also been more effective, even though Miller has also played his best Sabre hockey.

In terms of effectiveness over their careers, they are comparable in that they have probably been top pair offensively and bottom pair defensively. Rasmus has created more opportunities for both his team and their opponents. The strength of each is in transition and they are physically willing, if not that strong.

I guess defence is in the eye of the beholder, but the coach has behaved as if Rasmus is his least trusted defenceman defensively.

In my opinion, Rasmus has passed Miller over the past month or two and will probably never look back. I hope he passes Montour and Risto soon in terms of situational use and all-around play, but I don’t think he has yet. Ideally, I’d like that to happen before I move either. Even better, I’d like to keep the six defenceman we have, because when Ras and Joki hit their stride, it could be a pretty formidable group.

Montour?!

He’s easily been one of our worst. Risto’s underlying have also dipped (though they’re not the tire fire Montour’s are) but not as drastically as in years past. He’s been pretty decent.

Dahlin is the best D on the roster right now and it’s not particularly close. It’s not remotely close on offence, and Dahlin has been leading the LEAGUE in expected goals against the last several weeks/couple months last I checked, nm just this team. 

Who's better right now, certainly not Montour. Risto? Nah. The gap between Dahlin and Risto defensively, if there even is one at this point, is not close to the size of the gap between the two offensively right now. Dahlin doesn’t play on the PK, but neither does Eichel, and I still consider him our best forward. It's one small aspect of the game, he may never be a PK mainstay if the coach would prefer someone else puts their body on the line blocking 100mph slap shots from the point, so I'm not using PK ice time as any sort of barometer. Particularly when he blows Ristolainen and specifically Montour out of the water at other (and in the case of Montour, every other) aspect. 

I don’t always agree with Sabres Twitter Chad and Kevin (for those unfamiliar, they are the forefront of the analytics side) but my defensive ranking lines right up with this (though I'd have Ristolainen above McCabe): 

 

Edited February 18, 2020 by Thorny

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, Thorny said:

He’s the best right now. 

As mentioned in a different post, a case can be made that he's their top D-man because he is their best offensive D-man; but IMHO he isn't their best overall.

(BTW, Eichel DOES play on the PK, but he isn't on either of the top 2 F pairings.  Dahlin gets roughly as much, or a smidge less, PK time as Reinhart does. ? ) 

[triumph_communes]

9 hours ago, Thorny said:

Montour?!

He’s easily been one of our worst. Risto’s underlying have also dipped (though they’re not the tire fire Montour’s are) but not as drastically as in years past. He’s been pretty decent.

Dahlin is the best D on the roster right now and it’s not particularly close. It’s not remotely close on offence, and Dahlin has been leading the LEAGUE in expected goals against the last several weeks/couple months last I checked, nm just this team. 

Who's better right now, certainly not Montour. Risto? Nah. The gap between Dahlin and Risto defensively, if there even is one at this point, is not close to the size of the gap between the two offensively right now. Dahlin doesn’t play on the PK, but neither does Eichel, and I still consider him our best forward. It's one small aspect of the game, he may never be a PK mainstay if the coach would prefer someone else puts their body on the line blocking 100mph slap shots from the point, so I'm not using PK ice time as any sort of barometer. Particularly when he blows Ristolainen and specifically Montour out of the water at other (and in the case of Montour, every other) aspect. 

I don’t always agree with Sabres Twitter Chad and Kevin (for those unfamiliar, they are the forefront of the analytics side) but my defensive ranking lines right up with this (though I'd have Ristolainen above McCabe): 

 

can we stop using the words 'best' to describe fancy stats that are heavily dependent upon quality of competition and minutes played?

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

can we stop using the words 'best' to describe fancy stats that are heavily dependent upon quality of competition and minutes played?

It's certainly not any worse than me using 'best' to describe Risto's game based on my eye test. What you value and why is certainly in the eye of the beholder.

What is odd is the absolute certainty that some people have that being on the ice for an average of four or five more offensive shots or fewer defensive shots a game makes you a better player than another guy.

Edited February 18, 2020 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

I think almost all of our D have taken turns of at least 3-5 games of being our best D this season. 

The position has more or less played out as we would have hoped in the summer. 

I don't think McCabe has ever been our best, but he's had some games where he's been good. A lot where he's been pretty bad though. It's okay, every team has one like him, and I like him. 

Scandella might have been the best overall, IMO. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

The “best” D is a hard discussion as coaches deploy guys so radically different.  Montour and Dahlin lead in Ozone starts.  Joker and McCabe lead in D zone starts. Risto and McCabe play the most on the PK with Joker 3rd.  Dahlin leads on the PP.  Fancy stats aren’t real cellar as far as I can tell.

[SwampD]

There is a play that happens hundreds of times a night in the NHL. A defender and an opposing forward are going towards the boards to retrieve a puck. They engage and tie each other up, the puck leaks out to one side and the other D man gets it and starts the breakout. Neither of them ever had the puck.

It needs a name and it needs to be counted because it is an invaluable NHL defensive skill. Risto is really good at it. Dahlin is learning. It doesn’t show up on any stat sheet.

 

At least, none that I’m aware of.

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, SwampD said:

There is a play that happens hundreds of times a night in the NHL. A defender and an opposing forward are going towards the boards to retrieve a puck. They engage and tie each other up, the puck leaks out to one side and the other D man gets it and starts the breakout. Neither of them ever had the puck.

It needs a name and it needs to be counted because it is an invaluable NHL defensive skill. Risto is really good at it. Dahlin is learning. It doesn’t show up on any stat sheet.

 

"Tkachuk chases after the puck in the corner...Risto swampds him out on the boards....Pilut collects the puck behind the net, up to Reinhart...."

[LTS]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

"Tkachuk chases after the puck in the corner...Risto swampds him out on the boards....Pilut collects the puck behind the net, up to Reinhart...."

That's a long name for that stat, my guess is it won't translate well on charts.

[Stoner]

The puck turd.

As for Dahlin's impending historic achievement, I trust @sabremike will have a banner for it. He can do fine print, I think.

[dudacek]

41 minutes ago, SwampD said:

There is a play that happens hundreds of times a night in the NHL. A defender and an opposing forward are going towards the boards to retrieve a puck. They engage and tie each other up, the puck leaks out to one side and the other D man gets it and starts the breakout. Neither of them ever had the puck.

It needs a name and it needs to be counted because it is an invaluable NHL defensive skill. Risto is really good at it. Dahlin is learning. It doesn’t show up on any stat sheet.

 

At least, none that I’m aware of.

Thanks for this.

To me, safely winning that contested puck is the most fundamentally crucial skill for playing defence in hockey, but it never seems part of the discourse. Risto is excellent at it. I think of this every time someone calls him a tire fire in his own zone.

Semi-related, the best forward we have in these situations is “soft” Sam Reinhart. Risto does it with pure power and Sam with an effortless barely noticed stick tap, but they both get results and their coaches see that.

Edited February 18, 2020 by dudacek

[dudacek]

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Thanks for this.

To me, safely winning that contested puck is the most fundamentally crucial skill for playing defence in hockey, but it never seems part of the discourse. Risto is excellent at it. I think of this every time someone calls him a tire fire in his own zone.

Semi-related, the best forward we have in these situations is “soft” Sam Reinhart. Risto does it with pure power and Sam with an effortless barely noticed stick tap, but they both get results and their coaches see that.

Applying this to the thread topic, Dahlin is a mixed bag in these situations.

There are times when he looks like he’s going to be crushed and he flips his shoulders, slides laterally and eels out of danger with the puck on his stick and open ice to skate in. Other times the opponent gets there a fraction of a second earlier and he looks like little Billy trying to tackle Uncle Swamp in a backyard football game, completely on the wrong side of the puck, with no leverage at all.

 When he adds the man strength and veteran savvy that we know is coming in these situations is when he will be a true number one. It’s already coming.

Edited February 18, 2020 by dudacek

[TrueBlueGED]

44 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Thanks for this.

To me, safely winning that contested puck is the most fundamentally crucial skill for playing defence in hockey, but it never seems part of the discourse. Risto is excellent at it. I think of this every time someone calls him a tire fire in his own zone.

Semi-related, the best forward we have in these situations is “soft” Sam Reinhart. Risto does it with pure power and Sam with an effortless barely noticed stick tap, but they both get results and their coaches see that.

Because he is incapable of clearing the zone. Winning the battle only to lose the war type of thing. What good is winning a contested puck if you proceed to fling it to the other team? 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Because he is incapable of clearing the zone. Winning the battle only to lose the war type of thing. What good is winning a contested puck if you proceed to fling it to the other team? 

This was true in the second half of last season. It's not true now.

The flip side of this is "What good is being able to make a crisp breakout pass if your ass is on the ice and the puck is on the other guy's stick?" But no, Pilut is clearly better than Risto. Let me show you the chart. 

@Randall Flagg said it above and I think you've even mentioned it in the past. Let Risto eliminate the man and Lawrence move the puck.

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

can we stop using the words 'best' to describe fancy stats that are heavily dependent upon quality of competition and minutes played?

The best stats attempt to account for those things. Far from perfect but like @dudacek mentioned it’s just another measuring stick, a tool I’m including in my evaluation comparisons. It’s not like Dahlin isn’t also first in raw stats. And, to me, eye test. 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

The puck turd.

As for Dahlin's impending historic achievement, I trust @sabremike will have a banner for it. He can do fine print, I think.

Those mock-ups are only for joke achievements, not actual impressive accomplishments. 

[Thorner]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

This was true in the second half of last season. It's not true now.

The flip side of this is "What good is being able to make a crisp breakout pass if your ass is on the ice and the puck is on the other guy's stick?" But no, Pilut is clearly better than Risto. Let me show you the chart. 

@Randall Flagg said it above and I think you've even mentioned it in the past. Let Risto eliminate the man and Lawrence move the puck.

It needs to be kept within reason. An argument could be made Pilut is better based on his fancy stats, but I wouldn’t make it. Too much of the other observation points favour Risto. It’s not the case with Dahlin, who looks better than Risto in most areas, normy stats, and advanced stats. 

[dudacek]

9 minutes ago, Thorny said:

It needs to be kept within reason. An argument could be made Pilut is better based on his fancy stats, but I wouldn’t make it. Too much of the other observation points favour Risto. It’s not the case with Dahlin, who looks better than Risto in most areas, normy stats, and advanced stats. 

Dahlin is Ralph's first choice when he needs a goal and his last when he needs a stop. I agree with the coach on the first half of that statement. I might quibble, but I don't have a serious problem with the back half.

Risto is Ralph's second choice when he needs a goal and his first when he needs a stop. I agree with him on both points.

Your point is perfectly reasonable and I suspect I will be agreeing with you within a year. I'd like to see Dahlin getting a chance to support your argument with more tough minutes down the stretch.

Edited February 18, 2020 by dudacek