Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors

[Curt]

19 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Is Vancouver less likely of a trade partner now that they've signed Myers? They have Myers, Tanev, Stecher down the right side. Obviously not ideal, but Risto doesn't make it better in a meaningful way (he's not going to drag their defense from not-playoff-caliber to playoff-caliber by himself)

Ah, but the true question is not, does Risto make VAN a lot better?  The question is, does Benning think that Risto would make VAN a lot better?

[Curt]

6 hours ago, will said:

sorry if it's been mentioned already, but ryan kennedy on siriusXM ch. 91 said this morning that MTL took the aho offer to b-point first, and he wasn't interested. didn't know if it was term or the $$, but he added that point was interested in working something out with TB, so...boo.  don't know much about cirelli's ability outside of straight scoring stats, but i love point's game, and think he's the perfect 2C for buffalo at this...point.  bummer.

Point would have a good chance of being the perfect #1C for Buffalo.  Cirelli would be the perfect #2C.

[Scottysabres]

15 minutes ago, Curt said:

Point would have a good chance of being the perfect #1C for Buffalo.  Cirelli would be the perfect #2C.

Cirelli is an unproven commodity. You don't move your prime trade chip (Risto) in a deal that is high risk, at least, not in Botterills case.

I wonder if many fans realize just how de-stabilizing the losing has been to the organization. When the owner comes out, after a disastrous first 8 years and says it's time to start winning, high risk moves like taking on an unproven asset at the 2c position by using your prime trade chip doesn't seem to fit the bill for success, wouldn't you agree?

Because I know this much, given the moves Botterill is making this off season, shrewdly propping up the RHD position in anticipation of that Risto for 2c move, I have a very high degree of confidence that Cirelli isn't even an after thought as a 2c to Botterill, let alone in the conversation. It won't happen, based purely on common sense, and that is the correct assessment from Botterill, in my humble opinion.

[Randall Flagg]

20 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Cirelli is an unproven commodity. You don't move your prime trade chip (Risto) in a deal that is high risk, at least, not in Botterills case.

I wonder if many fans realize just how de-stabilizing the losing has been to the organization. When the owner comes out, after a disastrous first 8 years and says it's time to start winning, high risk moves like taking on an unproven asset at the 2c position by using your prime trade chip doesn't seem to fit the bill for success, wouldn't you agree?

Because I know this much, given the moves Botterill is making this off season, shrewdly propping up the RHD position in anticipation of that Risto for 2c move, I have a very high degree of confidence that Cirelli isn't even an after thought as a 2c to Botterill, let alone in the conversation. It won't happen, based purely on common sense, and that is the correct assessment from Botterill, in my humble opinion.

Cirelli is not high-risk at all. He's already an outstanding hockey player, and when the depth chart above him isn't clogged by two top-10-15 centers, his GAP will show it.

I would add significant assets to Risto to facilitate a move for Cirelli, and I hope Botts doesn't just look at a stat sheet and see "man I can't trade Risto for a 39 point kid." Because his ability and drive are wonderful. His film shows it.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[Curt]

16 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Cirelli is an unproven commodity. You don't move your prime trade chip (Risto) in a deal that is high risk, at least, not in Botterills case.

I wonder if many fans realize just how de-stabilizing the losing has been to the organization. When the owner comes out, after a disastrous first 8 years and says it's time to start winning, high risk moves like taking on an unproven asset at the 2c position by using your prime trade chip doesn't seem to fit the bill for success, wouldn't you agree?

Because I know this much, given the moves Botterill is making this off season, shrewdly propping up the RHD position in anticipation of that Risto for 2c move, I have a very high degree of confidence that Cirelli isn't even an after thought as a 2c to Botterill, let alone in the conversation. It won't happen, based purely on common sense, and that is the correct assessment from Botterill, in my humble opinion.

Ok, you don’t want to trade Risto for Cirelli.  Cirelli has proven that he is at least a good #3C, to me at least.  I would think long and hard about a trade centered around Risto-Cirelli.

In my post, I never said to trade Risto for Cirelli though.  I didn’t even mention Risto.  You didn’t even mention Risto in the post I was replying to.  

[Scottysabres]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Cirelli is not high-risk at all. He's already an outstanding hockey player, and when the depth chart above him isn't clogged by two top-10-15 centers, his GAP will show it.

I would add significant assets to Risto to facilitate a move for Cirelli, and I hope Botts doesn't just look at a stat sheet and see "man I can't trade Risto for a 39 point kid." Because his ability and drive are wonderful.

I watched plenty of Tampa hockey this year RF, I cannot subscribe to your thoughts on Cirelli. He was sheltered, and quite a bit, on arguably one of the best regular season teams the league has ever seen in it's history. His play didn't stand out nearly enough, in the many games I watched, that warrant a targeting of him by the Sabres utilizing their prime trade chip.

Just my 2 cents based on what I witnessed this season is all. To much of a pedestal for this kid as of yet I think given that team make up.

[Winston]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Cirelli is not high-risk at all. He's already an outstanding hockey player, and when the depth chart above him isn't clogged by two top-10-15 centers, his GAP will show it.

I would add significant assets to Risto to facilitate a move for Cirelli, and I hope Botts doesn't just look at a stat sheet and see "man I can't trade Risto for a 39 point kid." Because his ability and drive are wonderful.

I see that Cirelli got 58% d-zone starts last year. Is this a product of him being good/trusted defensively even during his rookie campaign? Or simply because dudes named Stamkos and Point get the o-zone starts and pot goals?

[Scottysabres]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

Ok, you don’t want to trade Risto for Cirelli.  Cirelli has proven that he is at least a good #3C, to me at least.  I would think long and hard about a trade centered around Risto-Cirelli.

In my post, I never said to trade Risto for Cirelli though.  I didn’t even mention Risto.  You didn’t even mention Risto in the post I was replying to.  

While I concur you did not, nor did I, but to be honest, it's the primary trade chip that is going to be used imo.

[Curt]

1 minute ago, Scottysabres said:

While I concur you did not, nor did I, but to be honest, it's the primary trade chip that is going to be used imo.

Honestly, when I wrote it, I wasn’t thinking about a trade at all, because I think there is about 0.1% chance that either of Point/Cirelli are traded.

It’s likely that Risto is traded, at some point, but not necessarily for a 2C.  Trades can be made that do not involve Risto.  Not all trade or player discussions need to be filtered through the Risto lens.  I think we are getting a little bit of a Risto-2C tunnel vision.  A #1LW was acquired for low end futures last offseason, a #2RD for low end futures this offseason.  

Risto could be moved to acquire a 2C, and it’s fine to speculate about it, but it shouldn’t be considered to ONLY possible thing that could happen.  This management group has been anything but predictable with their player acquisitions.

[dudacek]

After adding Ferland, the Canucks have $5 million in cap space, 15 forwards on NHL contracts and Boeser and Goldobin still to sign. They will be trading away a forward.

Given that their D is Edler/Myers Hughes/Tanev Benn/Stecher Fanteberg/Biega, there is a great chance they will be wanting a defenceman in return. 

Maybe we shouldn’t be too quick dismissing the Canucks as a trade partner. Maybe we’re just looking too high when we throw out names like Horvat and Risto.

Maybe it’s something more mundane like Scandella for Sutter or McCabe for Pearson.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, EichSnipe said:

I see that Cirelli got 58% d-zone starts last year. Is this a product of him being good/trusted defensively even during his rookie campaign? Or simply because dudes named Stamkos and Point get the o-zone starts and pot goals?

Both he and Point are great in each direction of the ice. He was their best penalty killing forward and scored five shorties while doing it.

[Scottysabres]

1 hour ago, Let's Go B-Lo said:

That's debatable but when you wait until they are proven they are then unattainable.

I see no debate here. The kid has played 1 full season in a very sheltered role behind 2 lines that were dynamite on arguably one of the greatest regular season teams in the history of the NHL. What the Tampa Bay Lightning did this past season was incredible, and, I watched a ton of it. Cirelli was not an overwhelming or even pivotal factor in it. He had very sheltered center duty on a 3rd line with fresh legs in every game I watched that had lines 1 and 2 double shifting in at least half the game in most cases.

Whether or not it's recognized, that makes a huge difference.

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, Scottysabres said:

I see no debate here. The kid has played 1 full season in a very sheltered role behind 2 lines that were dynamite on arguably one of the greatest regular season teams in the history of the NHL. What the Tampa Bay Lightning did this past season was incredible, and, I watched a ton of it. Cirelli was not an overwhelming or even pivotal factor in it. He had very sheltered center duty on a 3rd line with fresh legs in every game I watched that had lines 1 and 2 double shifting in at least half the game in most cases.

Whether or not it's recognized, that makes a huge difference.

You keep saying very sheltered. The only centers on Buffalo or Tampa that had a higher percentage of defensive zone starts are Larry, Zemgus, Sobotka, Paquette. He had more than any of Stamkos, Point, Eichel, Mitts etc.

Just looking at random eastern conference teams, the forwards he saw the most are Domi from Montreal, Huberdeau from Florida, Ovechkin from Washington, Matthews' line from Toronto (he and Johnsson are the most common opponents of Cirelli from Tampa, and played on the same line), the Couturier-Giroux line from Philly. He drew the ROR line in his two Blues matchups based on most common opponents. He drew Toronto's top defense pair more than any other Toronto defense pair. Played against Dahlin more than any other Sabre D, Kessel more than any other Pen forward. In what way is this sheltered? 

He did this all while every modicum of offensive opportunity was given to Stamkos' line and Kucherov's line, while they were off chasing records, and still at 21 while being a PK staple and 58% dzone starts put up a ~20 goal, ~40 point season. 

He has a lot more to grow, and a lot more to give already even if he didn't grow, by getting out of the offensive shadow of TWO superstar lines.

[Scottysabres]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

You keep saying very sheltered. The only centers on Buffalo or Tampa that had a higher percentage of defensive zone starts are Larry, Zemgus, Sobotka, Paquette. He had more than any of Stamkos, Point, Eichel, Mitts etc.

Just looking at random eastern conference teams, the forwards he saw the most are Domi from Montreal, Huberdeau from Florida, Ovechkin from Washington, Matthews' line from Toronto (he and Johnsson are the most common opponents of Cirelli from Tampa, and played on the same line), the Couturier-Giroux line from Philly. He drew the ROR line in his two Blues matchups based on most common opponents. He drew Toronto's top defense pair more than any other Toronto defense pair. Played against Dahlin more than any other Sabre D, Kessel more than any other Pen forward. In what way is this sheltered? 

He did this all while every modicum of offensive opportunity was given to Stamkos' line and Kucherov's line, while they were off chasing records, and still at 21 while being a PK staple and 58% dzone starts put up a ~20 goal, ~40 point season. 

He has a lot more to grow, and a lot more to give already even if he didn't grow, by getting out of the offensive shadow of TWO superstar lines.

True, he took D zone starts, and he did PK, but that Tampa team had so many of those teams worn down by the 2nd and in to the 3rd periods so many games, that in my view, those stats truly aren't stand alone to his ability. You simply have to take the games over all flow in to consideration, or, at least I would hope you'd concede that yes, the pace of the game combined with the overwhelming O zone play, which far outweighed the D zone play of Tampa Bay game by game, was a very cushy shelter for the kid.

[Randall Flagg]

Tampa would not trade us Anthony straight up, but even if he never grew another inch from what he was, it would be better to acquire him than someone like Tyler Johnson. I'm not even sure TJ would give us better right away, but he'd fall out of favor before Risto turned 27, and he's basically a known commodity with next to zero chance to take another step. I'd rather take a chance on the guy that a good scout thinks can be special, and risk him not getting there. The reason I zoom in on Cirelli (who looked the part next to guys like Stone at worlds as well) is because it's not even a chance or a risk - he could NOT become special and still be more useful three years from now than a Tyler Johnson would be. Maybe it's not Cirelli, maybe they can find a different player like that, but he's the one that gives me the same feels that Point did last year, and the way that went gave me renewed confidence in what I'm seeing down there.

[TrueBlueGED]

Is this a good time to remind everyone that the impact of sheltering is vastly overstated? The only way to truly shelter players is to minimize even strength minutes entirely and pump up power play time. Otherwise, everybody plays everybody, and the actual difference between the hard match ups and the easy match ups is marginal. 

Edit: put differently, matchups don't dictate a player's performance. It can nudge it, sure, but if player X performs poorly in Y role, they'll probably also perform poorly in Z role. Maybe less poorly with less of an overall impact on the team, but poorly nonetheless. 

Edited July 11, 2019 by TrueBlueGED

[freester]

Cirelli is not being traded from Tampa. Tyler Johnson is a possibility  if Tampa ever offered Cirelli for Ristolainen straight up, Botteril do it instantly    We need to discuss more realistic trades for Ristolainen   I think a trade to Winnipeg for Roslovic and Perreault is likely or possibly Ehlers  

 

 

 

[LGR4GM]

11 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

Is this a good time to remind everyone that the impact of sheltering is vastly overstated? The only way to truly shelter players is to minimize even strength minutes entirely and pump up power play time. Otherwise, everybody plays everybody, and the actual difference between the hard match ups and the easy match ups is marginal. 

Edit: put differently, matchups don't dictate a player's performance. It can nudge it, sure, but if player X performs poorly in Y role, they'll probably also perform poorly in Z role. Maybe less poorly with less of an overall impact on the team, but poorly nonetheless. 

Yup. Sobotka getting pp1 time and playing on the 4th line against other 4th lines would still show that Sobotka sucks. 

 

If Cirelli was so sheltered than we should be thrilled to get a guy who managed to play just under 15minutes a night and generate 14 even strength and 5 short handed goals. He produced at 5v5 which matters in the NHL whether you are playing on the 1st or 4th line. It indicates how productive you can be. Imagine now you give him 18minutes a night and 3 of those minutes are PP minutes. Cirelli might be the perfect poster child for the player we should trade Risto for. I would take on a cap dump to get him. 

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, freester said:

Cirelli is not being traded from Tampa. Tyler Johnson is a possibility  if Tampa ever offered Cirelli for Ristolainen straight up, Botteril do it instantly    We need to discuss more realistic trades for Ristolainen   I think a trade to Winnipeg for Roslovic and Perreault is likely or possibly Ehlers  

Johnson has a NTC. The reason we talk about Cirelli is because he is one of the few pieces they have that is not protected by a NTC. 

If Winnipeg wants him they need to give up more. I don't want Perrault and Roslovic. That just isn't enough for me to trade Risto to a team that desperately needs him. Roslovic scored 5 of his 9 goals on the pp. He was sheltered judging by his 9:45 of ice time per game. 

[freester]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Johnson has a NTC. The reason we talk about Cirelli is because he is one of the few pieces they have that is not protected by a NTC. 

If Winnipeg wants him they need to give up more. I don't want Perrault and Roslovic. That just isn't enough for me to trade Risto to a team that desperately needs him. Roslovic scored 5 of his 9 goals on the pp. He was sheltered judging by his 9:45 of ice time per game. 

I agree that Peg would have to give more.  I doubt Tyler Johnson waives his NTC.

[Eddiegoofball]

I know Tampa is the sexy thought of where to send Risto since they have a ton of talented forwards and with our abundance of LW I have to wonder if Botts makes a blockbuster trade instead of a one for one, but the thought of Risto for Nugent-Hopkins just seems to work. They make nearly the same, RNH isn't that much older than Risto, and he'd be a perfect 2C for us and allow Casey to be the 3C he needs to be right now. I wouldn't be surprised if that's one of the moves.

[freester]

44 minutes ago, Eddiegoofball said:

I know Tampa is the sexy thought of where to send Risto since they have a ton of talented forwards and with our abundance of LW I have to wonder if Botts makes a blockbuster trade instead of a one for one, but the thought of Risto for Nugent-Hopkins just seems to work. They make nearly the same, RNH isn't that much older than Risto, and he'd be a perfect 2C for us and allow Casey to be the 3C he needs to be right now. I wouldn't be surprised if that's one of the moves.

Edmonton needs offense as well. I don’t think they trade RNH unless we give them a substantial plus

[dudacek]

45 minutes ago, Eddiegoofball said:

I know Tampa is the sexy thought of where to send Risto since they have a ton of talented forwards and with our abundance of LW I have to wonder if Botts makes a blockbuster trade instead of a one for one, but the thought of Risto for Nugent-Hopkins just seems to work. They make nearly the same, RNH isn't that much older than Risto, and he'd be a perfect 2C for us and allow Casey to be the 3C he needs to be right now. I wouldn't be surprised if that's one of the moves.

You know, I dismiss the RNH idea as the Oilers not having enough fallback talent on O to absorb the move.

But maybe what its going to take is a GM saying ***** it, what we have ain’t working and we really need a nasty RD who can add some offence.

[Eddiegoofball]

18 minutes ago, freester said:

Edmonton needs offense as well. I don’t think they trade RNH unless we give them a substantial plus

That's the only thing that gives me pause from the Edmonton side. From a value perspective, the players are about even but the one thing that makes me think it could happen is Edmonton also has a track record of making less than ideal trades.

[shrader]

7 minutes ago, Eddiegoofball said:

That's the only thing that gives me pause from the Edmonton side. From a value perspective, the players are about even but the one thing that makes me think it could happen is Edmonton also has a track record of making less than ideal trades.

But does Ken Holland?  They've hit the reset button there and who knows what kind of deals they could make now.  High profile GM changes always bring on strange unexpected events.  Just look at the comparison of Edmonton Glen Sather to NYR Glen Sather.