Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors

[WildCard]

7 minutes ago, darksabre said:

It's purely a numbers thing. Signing Gardiner makes Risto's cap hit untenable and gives us too many players to protect for expansion. It would immediately dilute Risto's value..

Makes you wonder if we're waiting to move him before signing Gardiner then

[darksabre]

Just now, Curtisp5286 said:

Ah, ok, I see what you mean.  It dilutes his value moving forward because other teams will feel that Buffalo NEEDS to make a move.

I would say that they wouldn't need to make a trade immediately.  The signing wouldn't put them over the cap. 

A Gardiner signing could mean that a Risto, or other D, trade is already well in the works and is imminent.  Its all speculative right now anyway.  We don't even know the reliability of this report that Buffalo is in on Gardiner.  We'll see how things shake out.

You got it. It's not a cap thing so much as a roster space thing.

I would hope that Botterill would execute a Risto trade before a Gardiner signing was announced. But these things ain't easy.

Just now, WildCard said:

Makes you wonder if we're waiting to move him before signing Gardiner then

Ideally you'd want to move him first. But timing is tough.

1 minute ago, ... said:

My question, upon review, wasn't worded correctly.  The answer is obvious based on the way I worded it.  Sorry to affect the collective IQ of the board. 

What I meant to ask was what is he EXPECTING to do after acquiring all of these players (especially if the Gardiner thing comes to pass)?  Sure, we don't know  really (do we?), but I'm not picking up a pattern or thread that indicates any strategy here other than "get the ones you can when you can and worry about it later".  Sort of like he's building up a big blob of clay to eventually start carving away into some sculpture.

I guess we'll see when the dust settles.

[...]

1 minute ago, Curtisp5286 said:

Ah, ok, I see what you mean.  It dilutes his value moving forward because other teams will feel that Buffalo NEEDS to make a move.

Right, if there isn't some massive deal(s) in the works, everyone knows Buffalo has way too many players they don't need.  I made this point on 7/1.  All of the players, then, not just Risto, are devalued.

[Mustache of God]

If it's the Sabres, Jets and Habs in on Gardiner, I'm hoping he lands in Buffalo or MTL, that'd leave the Jets desperate for help on their blue-line and will make Risto more valuable in their eyes. If the Jets sign him, then them being a dance partner for Risto diminishes, imho.

[Huckleberry]

Gusev is reported to be looking for a 2x4mill deal.  I wonder what vegas would want for him ?  Think McCabe would be enough ? 

[...]

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WHY ISN'T THERE ANYTHING FUN HAPPENING?

[Huckleberry]

Just now, Let's Go B-Lo said:

considering they don't have the money to sign him I think that's probably too much.

Yeah was thinking we would be overpaying maybe they can give us a pick back lol

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, Scottysabres said:

Maybe Botterill rebuilding the entire D in 1 off season is a good thing? Not sure.

Gardiner is a left shot, does he play the right side? I'm not sure what position he played on D.

 

30 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

If it's the Sabres, Jets and Habs in on Gardiner, I'm hoping he lands in Buffalo or MTL, that'd leave the Jets desperate for help on their blue-line and will make Risto more valuable in their eyes. If the Jets sign him, then them being a dance partner for Risto diminishes, imho.

I don’t see it changing the Jets needs at all   Gardiner is a LHD.  

Jets have lost 2 of their 3 top RHD this offseason. 

Gardiner wont fix that

ill assume that a Gardiner signing in Buffalo means the end of McCabe. Not Risto 

[Taro T]

48 minutes ago, darksabre said:

You got it. It's not a cap thing so much as a roster space thing.

I would hope that Botterill would execute a Risto trade before a Gardiner signing was announced. But these things ain't easy.

Ideally you'd want to move him first. But timing is tough.

I guess we'll see when the dust settles.

Please note that all of this that follows comes with the caveat that we don't even know for certain that Botterill is pursuing Gardiner.

While trading Ristolainen &/or McCabe (or whichever D are on their way out) prior to obtaining Gardiner would be preferable, we've seen how artificial deadlines to make a trade have worked in the past.  The only way having an extra D-man or 2 hurts their trade value is if there is only 1 offer for that particular guy.  The team that would trade for him still has to beat the other offers to land him.  So, if a GM sees Ristolainen as worth a 2RW (for sake of argument) to improve his team; he'd still be willing to go up to that value should there be another team trying to get him (or believed to be trying to get him).

I'd expect that a thing holding up 2nd pairing for 2nd line deals right now is seeing if any other teams get into cap trouble possibly freeing up a 2nd liner ( or 2nd pairing guy) on the very cheap.

So, as a hypothetical, if Carolina will offer up Niederreiter for Nylander & a pair of 2's one of which could become a 1, why give up Ristolainen and a 2 to get that same deal?  They could then ship out Scandella, Bogosian, or Nelson for a pick & end up netting out a stronger team overall.

And, the Seattle draft is 2 years away.  Really can't see them avoiding getting a better D-man than they currently have in their penciled in top 6 because they might lose one in 2 years.  Also, should it work out that Miller or Gardiner were left exposed in that draft, we'll one didn't cost anything but money and the other only cost a 2 & a 5.  Not really an unreplaceable asset in the grand scheme.

 

[Gatorman0519]

Maybe Kruger can coach us to 85 points and we can win the lotto.  Maybe then by 2025 we can eclipse 96 points and win 1 playoff game. ?

[wsam4031]

13 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Bold prediction Kyle Turris will be the Sabres 2c come opening day.

The deal will look something like this:  Turris and a very good prospect and $2 Mill per year in cap retention for CJ Smith and a 6th rd pick.

no thanks

[kas23]

3 hours ago, ... said:

I keep seeing these charts with defender X de jour being compared to Risto and have to ask myself “why would a GM want Risto so bad??”

[...]

1 minute ago, kas23 said:

I keep seeing these charts with defender X de jour being compared to Risto and have to ask myself “why would a GM want Risto so bad??”

[darksabre]

3 minutes ago, kas23 said:

I keep seeing these charts with defender X de jour being compared to Risto and have to ask myself “why would a GM want Risto so bad??”

That's the big question mark in all this. There are schools of thought that say Risto is better than all these charts and graphs indicate. And there are GMs out there that probably abide by that school of thought.

[DarthEbriate]

21 minutes ago, kas23 said:

I keep seeing these charts with defender X de jour being compared to Risto and have to ask myself “why would a GM want Risto so bad??”

It's the great conundrum of the charts. For Gardiner and Ristolainen...  Gardiner is on the ice with Tavares, Matthews, or Kadri, while Risto is going against Tavares or Matthews. Gardiner might face Eichel, but for matchup purposes is probably getting starts against Sobotka, Larsson, or Mitts. I would hope Gardiner's chart looks better.

For many a GM, all you have to consider is the athlete and the cost. You can leave it to your coach to properly use, motivate, and worry over the IQ stuff. You can always fire your coach (depending on your org structure). And if you look at Risto as a computer game player model based on player ratings (minus Off. and Def. Awareness), he's a stud.

[Curt]

1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said:

It's the great conundrum of the charts. For Gardiner and Ristolainen...  Gardiner is on the ice with Tavares, Matthews, or Kadri, while Risto is going against Tavares or Matthews. Gardiner might face Eichel, but for matchup purposes is probably getting starts against Sobotka, Larsson, or Mitts. I would hope Gardiner's chart looks better.

For many a GM, all you have to consider is the athlete and the cost. You can leave it to your coach to properly use, motivate, and worry over the IQ stuff. You can always fire your coach (depending on your org structure). And if you look at Risto as a computer game player model based on player ratings (minus Off. and Def. Awareness), he's a stud.

I am pretty sure that those RAMP Charts take into account quality of teammates and quality of competition.

[Radar]

1 minute ago, Curtisp5286 said:

I am pretty sure that those RAMP Charts take into account quality of teammates and quality of competition.

I'm not sure of that. In fact it seems to me who you're playing with/against can skew these charts and what they mean really. How many times do we hear complaints about our players going somewhere else and playing better. I'm not against analytics but some totally live by them.

 

 

 

[TrueBlueGED]

27 minutes ago, Radar said:

I'm not sure of that. In fact it seems to me who you're playing with/against can skew these charts and what they mean really. How many times do we hear complaints about our players going somewhere else and playing better. I'm not against analytics but some totally live by them.

 

 

 

The charts account for these things. I don't mind if people want to quibble with specific measures used to do so, or the appropriateness of the regression model used, but the analysts are making a good faith effort to account for team context. These aren't vacuum stats like scoring or corsi. 

[...]

3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

A huge part of that is also having the forwards to make smart choices, our forward group is so bad Gardiner might have same stats as Risto playing here.

 

3 hours ago, TrueBlueGED said:

The regression models take team context into account. If you want to argue the measures they use to do that, or contend the particular regressions employed aren't statistically appropriate, have at it. But those factors are not being ignored. 

 

36 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

I am pretty sure that those RAMP Charts take into account quality of teammates and quality of competition.

 

30 minutes ago, Radar said:

I'm not sure of that. In fact it seems to me who you're playing with/against can skew these charts and what they mean really. How many times do we hear complaints about our players going somewhere else and playing better. I'm not against analytics but some totally live by them.

@TrueBlueGED provides the summary.  These charts also cover three (3) seasons, so, the sample size is more substantial.

The RAPM charts are like the new rear-sides of trading cards.  They give you a quick assessment of the player's actual impact on a team.  When your team is a bottom-dweller, it stands to reason that whoever leaves will likely land on a better team and therefore, ultimately, look better.  Doesn't mean their metrics will improve significantly, but they could, obviously.   

But, I don't think we've seen better play or metrics from Tyler Myers, Tyler Ennis, or even Evander Kane, for example.

ROR was always capable of playing the way he has with St. Louis, everyone knew that because of his fancy stats.  The rest of the team around him was really good, too, making him look better despite not being any better than he already was/is.

Edited July 3, 2019 by ...
I'm a doofus.

[Curt]

The Jake Gardiner, Canadiens, Jets, Sabres tweet was a big fake.  Forget about that.

https://twitter.com/TheChargingBUF/status/1146430720979668992?s=20

Edited July 3, 2019 by Curtisp5286

[WildCard]

2 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

The Jake Gardiner, Canadiens, Jets, Sabres tweet was a big fake.  Forget about that.

https://twitter.com/TheChargingBUF/status/1146430720979668992?s=20

Well ***** that guy

[Marvin]

2 hours ago, darksabre said:

That's the big question mark in all this. There are schools of thought that say Risto is better than all these charts and graphs indicate. And there are GMs out there that probably abide by that school of thought.

I call the mentality of, "yeah, but I can turn __________ around" the "Mighty Mouse Syndrome" -- "Here I come to save the day!"  The narcissistic egomania you need to be a coach makes this thought process ubiquitous.

[darksabre]

24 minutes ago, Curtisp5286 said:

The Jake Gardiner, Canadiens, Jets, Sabres tweet was a big fake.  Forget about that.

https://twitter.com/TheChargingBUF/status/1146430720979668992?s=20

lol dude has been playing the long game. He tweeted all through the 2018-19 season about actual (and mundane) Habs stuff.

[Brawndo]

Here where he took the information from.

 

[Hoss]

1 minute ago, Brawndo said:

Here where he took the information from.

 

This guy has been on top of several things ahead of the big guys. Trustworthy source.