Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors

[TrueBlueGED]

28 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The Vancouver market and fanbase - which is pretty much in the same place as ours - is skewering Benning for the move.

Not that fans and media are experts on anything, but the point is pretty consistent: Miller will help, but he’s not going to get this team closer to winning the Stanley Cup. Next year’s lottery ticket might. Good is the enemy of great.

The pick is 2020 lottery protected. If either team is relying on a high percentage lottery pick 2 years from now, they've already failed. 

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, dudacek said:

The Vancouver market and fanbase - which is pretty much in the same place as ours - is skewering Benning for the move.

Not that fans and media are experts on anything, but the point is pretty consistent: Miller will help, but he’s not going to get this team closer to winning the Stanley Cup. Next year’s lottery ticket might. Good is the enemy of great.

The chances some random pick in two years ends up as good as Miller is rather low. Plus if it happens, it'll be in around 6 years. Can't let perfection be the enemy of good. And you have to get good before you can get great. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Thorny

[Radar]

Frankly when I look at Miller's stats he doesn't stand out enough for what it cost. Sure everyone likes trades but not sure at that cost. Subban I wouldn't have done that either. So any moves made I'm not unhappy with not making them.

[nucci]

14 hours ago, Hoss said:

 

"but it could change"...brilliant reporting

[tom webster]

10 minutes ago, nucci said:

"but it could change"...brilliant reporting

I was hoping that was just a bad translation.

[Neo]

23 hours ago, Hoss said:

Subban being targeted as the “most overrated” in the entire league in a sport with a not-so-great racial history and zero diversity is most definitely “nefarious” as I put it. Calling him overrated is fine. He might be at this point in his career.

Go to the comment section of any post about Subban from the NHL. The comments from fans about his “character” seem to forget how this man has given his heart to so many worthy causes and truly engages with the people.

Some Vancouver reporter said the Canucks shouldn’t pursue him because it’s become the “Vancouver Subbans” because of his character. The idea that a rich black man with confidence who engages with the public consistently is selfish and an attention ***** is played out.

I remembered this post and went back to find it.  As the great philosopher said, “Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men?”.  Hoss alludes to enough to warrant consideration, if at the same time not quite enough to allow conclusion..

I went to NHL.com this morning.  Subban has a video (Instagram?) where he thanks Nashville and says hello to NJ.  My sentence is factually accurate but uninteresting.  Intersting would be describing the style and peronality he shows us.   My words would fall short if I attempted to capture the elements.  “A picture is worth a thousand words”, as they say.  Find it.  He made me smile.  LOL to repeated “merch” and “Red Bull” interjections.  The Subbanator!

The kid is just a bundle of fun energy.  I can see him being large and in charge.  If that’s a locker room challenge, perhaps the problem is the other 20 guys.  I’ve shared locker rooms and conference rooms with the Large and In Charge.  Bring it.

Observation from 60,000 feet.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Neo

[CallawaySabres]

Keep Risto

[Hoss]

LeBrun indicates VGK is putting the finishing touches on an 8-year deal for William Karlsson. That team is in desperate need of clearing cap. If I remember correctly they had the least amount of cap space in the league BEFORE this contract.

[freester]

2 minutes ago, Hoss said:

LeBrun indicates VGK is putting the finishing touches on an 8-year deal for William Karlsson. That team is in desperate need of clearing cap. If I remember correctly they had the least amount of cap space in the league BEFORE this contract.

Who do we want from Vegas?

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, Hoss said:

LeBrun indicates VGK is putting the finishing touches on an 8-year deal for William Karlsson. That team is in desperate need of clearing cap. If I remember correctly they had the least amount of cap space in the league BEFORE this contract.

Risto for Stastny and C. Miller, pieces added as needed

[Hoss]

Colin Miller (D) with two years at $3.88M has been rumored to be available. I would absolutely take him.

Same for Paul Stastny (C) who has been rumored to be available and has two years left at $6.5M.

I’m not interested in Max Pacioretty (W) who is available with three years left at $7M.

Guys who they have that haven’t been rumored but I’d still have interest in:

Reilly Smith (W) with three years left at $5M.

Jonathan Marchessault (W) with three years left at $5M.

Malcolm Subban who is an RFA goalie and would require us to move one of ours in Ullmark or Hutton.

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

Risto for Stastny and C. Miller, pieces added as needed

I could probably get behind this though I’d ideally get a long-term forward back in moving Risto.

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, Hoss said:

Colin Miller (D) with two years at $3.88M has been rumored to be available. I would absolutely take him.

Same for Paul Stastny (C) who has been rumored to be available and has two years left at $6.5M.

I’m not interested in Max Pacioretty (W) who is available with three years left at $7M.

Guys who they have that haven’t been rumored but I’d still have interest in:

Reilly Smith (W) with three years left at $5M.

Jonathan Marchessault (W) with three years left at $5M.

Malcolm Subban who is an RFA goalie and would require us to move one of ours in Ullmark or Hutton.

I could probably get behind this though I’d ideally get a long-term forward back in moving Risto.

Add Gusev to Vegas's side maybe? Or something more NHL-sure?

[Brawndo]

@Randall Flagg What are your thoughts on Evolving Wild’s RAPM Charts? 

[Hoss]

Just now, Randall Flagg said:

Add Gusev to Vegas's side maybe? Or something more NHL-sure?

I’ve seen Vegas fans sure this guy is going to be great but I don’t know much about him to be honest. I also don’t think Vegas has anything that fits the bill I’m looking for on Risto outside Smith and Marchessault (both are 28). They’re not EXACTLY long-term but they’re close.

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, Hoss said:

I’ve seen Vegas fans sure this guy is going to be great but I don’t know much about him to be honest. I also don’t think Vegas has anything that fits the bill I’m looking for on Risto outside Smith and Marchessault (both are 28). They’re not EXACTLY long-term but they’re close.

I think he's got KHL production that suggests he could translate similarly (though not a guarantee to be at the same level) to the way Panarin's did. Actually, his KHL resume is more impressive than Artemi's. He's super skilled and has been wildly successful internationally, which helps that argument - 12 points in 6 games at the Olympics last year, 16 points in 10 games at Worlds a month ago. But we need to see it translate before we can be sure ya know?

And fair. I wonder if we could do something smaller with just Miller or just Stastny to help out their cap.

[Randall Flagg]

44 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

@Randall Flagg What are your thoughts on Evolving Wild’s RAPM Charts? 

I was actually going to make a thread about these haha. They're used enough everywhere now that it's worth going over what they are. 

So RAPM charts give the results of regression analyses performed with target variables of the things we see on the chart - goals for, expected goals for, corsi for, expected goals against, corsi against. These are all stats that most people are happy to look at individually, so it's nice to have them all in one chart. Further, the regression does something a lot better than just comparing the raw numbers on a chart - regression analyses can be used to isolate the impact that one variable (player) has on these "target variables" or stats. They build a matrix that contains every NHL player and goes through every shift (defined as a period of time in which no changes are made and ES hockey is happening (or maybe 5v5)) and keeps track of these stats. the regression analysis gives a coefficient for each variable (player) and ultimately tells you the impact THEY have on their team's GF, xGF, CF, CA, xGA. Isolated completely from other players, both teammates and opposition. So when you look at that chart, roughly, you can say that "this already takes into account the fact that Mitts got to play in the offensive zone a lot against other team's bottom players, and that Larsson has to face tough opponents in heavily skewed minutes." It's certainly far from perfect like any hockey model,, but no statistical model ever claims to be perfect - just useful. And regression is an objectively useful statistical technique that tells you things. So it's not just that "ROR or Bergeron have a good +/-" - it's that "ROR or Bergeron by themselves contribute a LOT to their team's goals for and preventing goals against compared to the average NHL skater." 

Keep in mind that the stat which is the best at predicting future team and individual level goals-for is expected goals, and the stat which performs the best at goals against is CA. So it's got the two best predictor stats on there. 

And then it displays the results in terms of standard devation from the average NHL player. So that means a few things.

The size of the bars should not be viewed as uniformly increasing or decreasing in impact on the stat. If you're at +1 STDV, your impact on the stat is better than all but ~15% of NHL skaters. If you're at +2, it's better than all but ~2.2% of NHL skaters. If you're at -1 you're in the bottom 15th percentile, and if you're at -2 you're worse than all but ~2.2% of skaters in terms of impact on that stat. And with a sample size of however many NHL skaters there are, this chart then tells us that Sobotka's impact on expected goals, because it's so hard for him to create or use space to set teammates up or get shots on net himself, is only better than maybe 2-3 skaters to play some amount of minutes in the NHL this season. He's approaching the bottom 0.1 percentile. (and we used him as our 2C by minutes played and 4th-most-used player for a significant chunk of the season - but anyway)

So if the bar is between 0 and +/- 1, you cover a lot more ground in rankings with small movements up or down the bar than you do towards the extremes. So Vlad is nowhere near as negatively-impactful (words) on those defensive metrics - perhaps he's in the bottom 20%, but nowhere near the bottom 0.1%. And Larry's impact on defensive metrics is top 10%/top 3% of all NHL skaters. 

ie, ~68% of all NHL skaters fall in this circle, so stuff i there is a bit more muddled than stuff on the edges. 

So to answer your question, I like the charts because of everything they bring to the table, and they make it so I have fewer awful data tables to look at, and does a lot of the comparison work for you. It's far from perfect of course, but even if I had the TIME to gather the context for any player comparison in the league I wanted to make, watching game after game to discern usage and impacts myself, I'd be just as flawed as the regression is in my own analysis. They're quite useful, do a lot of work for you, and like any other stat, you should focus on looking at extremes and ask yourself what hockey characteristic you think may be contributing to or influencing the result. 

Slap a few of these charts down, add a dash of your favorite counting stats, pull up some film and you've got yourself a neat little hockey analysis

Edited June 23, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, Radar said:

Frankly when I look at Miller's stats he doesn't stand out enough for what it cost. Sure everyone likes trades but not sure at that cost. Subban I wouldn't have done that either. So any moves made I'm not unhappy with not making them.

 

I would have done the Marleau trade and the Subban trade (subbing in Pilut and whatever Roch guy Nashville wanted).

But I think you nailed why I wouldn’t do the Miller deal.

I think it all comes down to how high you see the pieces eventually climbing up the depth chart. Canucks paid more for Miller than the Rangers paid for Trouba and we paid for Skinner. Dougie Hamilton, Ryan O’Reilly, P.K. Subban were all acquired for mid- to low- first-rounders.

It’s not that I think we are likely to draft a stud with that pick, Sabrespacers are right when they say we likely won’t. It’s just that I think it would be wise to keep our powder dry for a better opportunity.

[Sabel79]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

I would have done the Marleau trade and the Subban trade (subbing in Pilut and whatever Roch guy Nashville wanted).

But I think you nailed why I wouldn’t do the Miller deal.

I think it all comes down to how high you see the pieces eventually climbing up the depth chart. Canucks paid more for Miller than the Rangers paid for Trouba and we paid for Skinner. Dougie Hamilton, Ryan O’Reilly, P.K. Subban were all acquired for mid- to low- first-rounders.

It’s not that I think we are likely to draft a stud with that pick, Sabrespacers are right when they say we likely won’t. It’s just that I think it would be wise to keep our powder dry for a better opportunity.

You may have the opportunity to pick up Marleau at a better cap number once the Canes buy him out.  I'm 98% certain this will happen.  Also, 100% certian he ends up back out west, but whatever.

[dudacek]

I’m making the Marleau deal with the intent of buying him out.

[...]

@Randall Flagg,  that was an excellent summary of RAPM charts! I liken them as the modern player "baseball" card.

[French Collection]

Stastny as a cap dump for Vegas. He is still a good 2C.

Sabres may have to give up a prospect.

[Hoss]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think he's got KHL production that suggests he could translate similarly (though not a guarantee to be at the same level) to the way Panarin's did. Actually, his KHL resume is more impressive than Artemi's. He's super skilled and has been wildly successful internationally, which helps that argument - 12 points in 6 games at the Olympics last year, 16 points in 10 games at Worlds a month ago. But we need to see it translate before we can be sure ya know?

And fair. I wonder if we could do something smaller with just Miller or just Stastny to help out their cap.

I wonder if we can get Miller and Stastny without using Risto. I’m not sure Vegas would actually want Risto, either.

It seems unlikely because we simply don’t have the pieces. I would’ve felt better about our chances if we still had the 31st pick to use and combine it with McCabe, a prospect and maybe a future pick.

Maybe something like McCabe, Nylander, Samuelsson or Davidsson and a second or two for Stastny and Miller?

[GASabresIUFAN]

54 minutes ago, Hoss said:

I wonder if we can get Miller and Stastny without using Risto. I’m not sure Vegas would actually want Risto, either.

It seems unlikely because we simply don’t have the pieces. I would’ve felt better about our chances if we still had the 31st pick to use and combine it with McCabe, a prospect and maybe a future pick.

Maybe something like McCabe, Nylander, Samuelsson or Davidsson and a second or two for Stastny and Miller?

Miller has already been traded to Van for a conditional 1st in 2020.

[tom webster]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Miller has already been traded to Van for a conditional 1st in 2020.

Talking about Colin Miller, defenseman got Vegas.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, tom webster said:

Talking about Colin Miller, defenseman got Vegas.

My bad.