Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors

[dudacek]

53 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

+/- measures goals in certain situations. Goals are rare. Shot events are more common and therefore give you more data points. It helps eliminate noise. 

I understand why analysts prefer it; it’s easier to model.

It’s still flawed like plus-minus because it calls players into account for things they have no control over and fails to do the same for things they do.

Risto makes a horrible giveaway at the offensive blueline sending Pageau off on a breakaway. Pageau goes for the deke, the puck slips off his stick and dribbles into the corner. Risto’s Corsi is neutral.

Montour makes a horrible giveaway at the offensive blueline sending Pageau off on a breakaway. Risto hustles back hard and forces Pageau out wide where he can only get off a harmless bad angle shot easily handled by Hutton. Risto gets a negative Corsi.

Joki makes a nice breakout pass to Larry and heads off on a change. Larry and the boys grind the Sens down for the next 30 seconds, peppering Anderson with four shots before he finally smothers the puck for a whistle. Risto comes on for Joki and stands at the blueline watching all this happen and gets a plus four Corsi.

Montour takes a shot off the ankle and is hobbling around in pain, useless. Tkachuk drives the net forcing Risto to play the 2-1 situation. He does this well, making Tkachuk shoot, which Hutton stops. Risto overpowers Tkachuk as he gets the rebound, pushing him off balance as he gets off a soft tapper on the rebound which Hutton blocks and swallows up the loose puck. Risto’s Corsi count, minus 2.

Corsi might be a better data management model, or predictive model, but as a data collection model, it shares all the flaws of +/-.

Im pretty sure guys like you understand this, just like you understand that all Risto’s “horrible” 47 per cent Corsi really means is that the Sabres are typically outshot 33-27 over 60 minutes of his even strength ice time.

But I’m also pretty sure the 14-year-old screaming about how terrible he is on Twitter does not. In the arena of public opinion it creates more noise than it eliminates.

Edited February 19, 2020 by dudacek

[DarthEbriate]

^ add in that pucks are cylinders instead of balls, ruts in the ice, refs who pocket their whistles in tie games once the 3rd period starts or try to even out the calls so they're not to blame, fighting is permitted but not punishable by ejection, and dashers and uprights that create caroms... its charm is that it may be the most chaotic sport in the world. Measuring it should be in how many times you're on the edge of your seat, how often you don't look at your phone, and your heart rate.

[TrueBlueGED]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I understand why analysts prefer it; it’s easier to model.

It’s still flawed like plus-minus because it calls players into account for things they have no control over and fails to do the same for things they do.

Risto makes a horrible giveaway at the offensive blueline sending Pageau off on a breakaway. Pageau goes for the deke, the puck slips off his stick and dribbles into the corner. Risto’s Corsi is neutral.

Montour makes a horrible giveaway at the offensive blueline sending Pageau off on a breakaway. Risto hustles back hard and forces Pageau out wide where he can only get off a harmless bad angle shot easily handled by Hutton. Risto gets a negative Corsi.

Joki makes a nice breakout pass to Larry and heads off on a change. Larry and the boys grind the Sens down for the next 30 seconds, peppering Anderson with four shots before he finally smothers the puck for a whistle. Risto comes on for Joki and stands at the blueline watching all this happen and gets a plus four Corsi.

Montour takes a shot off the ankle and is hobbling around in pain, useless. Tkachuk drives the net forcing Risto to play the 2-1 situation. He does this well, making Tkachuk shoot, which Hutton stops. Risto overpowers Tkachuk as he gets the rebound, pushing him off balance as he gets off a soft tapper on the rebound which Hutton blocks and swallows up the loose puck. Risto’s Corsi count, minus 2.

Corsi might be a better data management model, or predictive model, but as a data collection model, it shares all the flaws of +/-.

Im pretty sure guys like you understand this, just like you understand that all Risto’s “horrible” 47 per cent Corsi really means is that the Sabres are typically outshot 33-27 over 60 minutes of his even strength ice time.

But I’m also pretty sure the 14-year-old screaming about how terrible he is on Twitter does not. In the arena of public opinion it creates more noise than it eliminates.

You know you're on the wrong side of an argument when you have to do this. 

And that hypothetical 6 shot differential is significant over time. To make life easy, let's say Risto plays 20 minutes per game. That's 2 shots per game, or 164 over the course of the season. At a league average shooting of 9.11, you're looking at about 15 goals. That's significant. 

[pi2000]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Lol, you think a 25 year old player with over 200 nhl games is going to "get better" to any worthwhile degree.  Lol sure. 

Oh he'll be 26 in april. Even better. Wish Reinhart had his magical powers of improvement. Oh well. 

Montour will improve because he plays like he cares, with heart. Can't say the same for Reinhart.

Let me guess... you were one of those who bashed the Josh Allen pick? 

Do you agree or disagree that heart and passion for the game play a significant role in a player reaching his potential? 

How do you measure heart and what role does it play when you rank prospects?

[pi2000]

2 hours ago, WildCard said:

Well then it will probably shock you to learn that Ristolainen is on course for the exact same season he's had for the last 4 years of his career.

 

His TRpm has improved dramatically.

[Randall Flagg]

12 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Montour will improve because he plays like he cares, with heart. Can't say the same for Reinhart.

Let me guess... you were one of those who bashed the Josh Allen pick? 

Do you agree or disagree that heart and passion for the game play a significant role in a player reaching his potential? 

How do you measure heart and what role does it play when you rank prospects?

Pretending there is a discernible, let alone significant difference in the "heart" shown in NHL action by Montour and Reinhart might be the most pi2000 thing I've ever seen 

especially when followed one post later by the Trump GIF

Edited February 19, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

Also it seems like you make that thing zoom in closer and closer each time you post it

 

if so, brilliant 

 

 

[dudacek]

35 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

You know you're on the wrong side of an argument when you have to do this. 

And that hypothetical 6 shot differential is significant over time. To make life easy, let's say Risto plays 20 minutes per game. That's 2 shots per game, or 164 over the course of the season. At a league average shooting of 9.11, you're looking at about 15 goals. That's significant. 

I don't understand the bolded. When I'm talking hockey with you I assume there is a higher level of understanding of the numbers and the eye test than when I'm listening to Mike Schopp, for example, who refuses to question the numbers, doesn't seem to actually watch the Sabres very much and yells at people who don't agree with him.

The second paragraph illustrates my concern: it assumes that Risto must have a corresponding personal responsibility for that negative shot differential, when an actual manual accounting of how it came to be may demonstrate otherwise. Then you assume he's facing average shooters, in average shooting situations and not accounting for how his performance may or may not be affecting their accuracy. Then you are using that to imply that his presence could conceivably negatively affect the Sabres by 15 goals.

How is that more useful than looking at actual scoring over those 82 games and seeing that he was -17 on the season?

Edited February 19, 2020 by dudacek

[Brawndo]

3 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Ooh, a "Team Montour" member. 

Team Montour is fine: nfreeman, Flagg I guess?, darksabre?, ... ? 
Team Montour sucks: most other posters 

I’m on Team Montour. The fact he is playing on the Left Side for the first time in his career has affected his play somewhat. 
 

If I’m trading a RHD, my order of trade preference would be Risto>Montour>Miller 

[nfreeman]

32 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

 

His TRpm has improved dramatically.

 

Please cease and desist with this gif before others demand equal time and the poopstorm commences.

[Scottysabres]

Anyone know what Botterill's been doing today? Is he still in Ottawa? Has he returned to Buffalo?

Is his phone even on?

[LabattBlue]

I’m solidly in the “Team Montour Sucks” camp.  His freestyling into the offensive zone drives me crazy.  
 

Time for Botts or the next GM to find 1 or 2 defense first blue liners.  

[Curt]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Montour will improve because he plays like he cares, with heart. Can't say the same for Reinhart.

Let me guess... you were one of those who bashed the Josh Allen pick? 

Do you agree or disagree that heart and passion for the game play a significant role in a player reaching his potential? 

How do you measure heart and what role does it play when you rank prospects?

The weird thing about this post is that Reinhart has definitely improved every season in the league.

[Broken Ankles]

3 hours ago, WildCard said:

His possession and point totals look the same as they've ever been. Does anyone have a tool that can show us some more info?

I'm guessing you are using CF% & total points to measure this.   If I'm wrong please clarify and advise how your offering this.

  If it is, you see he is still a negative Corsi player (47.1%).  While this is true it's still slightly above his last four year average of 46.4%.    But more importantly the biggest difference I see is total shots for/against compared to previous years.  Not as a percentage, but total taken/allowed.   Risto is tracking to have an average of 6 shots against less per game  and more than 8 shots against per game less than his worst season.  Corsi Against numbers for 19/20 are 14 per game.  This is 43% over his previous 4 year average.  And CF is 12.7 per game and close to down almost 40%.  So yes, still a negative Corsi player.  When you factor in Goals against & Goals For 5v5 it translates to huge improvement.  His oiGF is tracking at .2 more per game.  This includes his TOI down 15% to his 4 year average.  This is a 52% improvement over his last four years.  Similarly his oiGA is down .14 goals per game or 12% compared to 2015-2018 averages.  Not looking at just his total +/- but seeing it within the context of other metrics could mean that low event hockey is a better match for him.  This is not to say he hasn't had his moments and head scratching plays, but for me those are fewer (@Darksabre comment about oh Risto you idiot) and made up by a more physical presence in front which includes more take aways, fewer give aways and more hits per game.   I also think until the Sabres have an actual forward with size,  Risto offers the only net front presence on to PP, which has added a dimension to what was (is?) a struggling special teams.  So not a 180 from previous years, but I would argue, not the "same" either.
 

[thewookie1]

Supposedly Pierre LeBrun said that Buffalo and Toronto have talked about Risto but it would be a offseason deal. I hate it; if I'm trading Risto I want him out of our conference. 

[Thorner]

No mention of DeMelo? A pretty solid add for Jets (thought likely a rental) for only a 3rd - whereas a probably lesser player in Alec Martinez fetched 2 2nds. 

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Supposedly Pierre LeBrun said that Buffalo and Toronto have talked about Risto but it would be a offseason deal. I hate it; if I'm trading Risto I want him out of our conference. 

Or, if not out of the Conference, at least on the Florida Gulf Coast.

[Scottysabres]

Let's play a game. I've selected 3 players to help make a playoff push (indulge me, I'm bored ? ). Below is who'd I 'd like to trade for before or on deadline day.

Fill out the trades, the players moved OUT and what your roster would look like post deadline day.

Let's have some fun.

To Buffalo

Anaheim - Kase (RW) $2.6 x 1 yr,

Florida - Trocheck (C) $4.75 x 2 yrs.

Dallas - Anton Khudobin (G) $2.5 UFA

Out of Buffalo

?

[apuszczalowski]

5 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

Anyone know what Botterill's been doing today? Is he still in Ottawa? Has he returned to Buffalo?

Is his phone even on?

He's still working on evaluating the current roster before he makes any big decisions.......

[triumph_communes]

9 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

Let's play a game. I've selected 3 players to help make a playoff push (indulge me, I'm bored ? ). Below is who'd I 'd like to trade for before or on deadline day.

Fill out the trades, the players moved OUT and what your roster would look like post deadline day.

Let's have some fun.

To Buffalo

Anaheim - Kase (RW) $2.6 x 1 yr,

Florida - Trocheck (C) $4.75 x 2 yrs.

Dallas - Anton Khudobin (G) $2.5 UFA

Out of Buffalo

?

McCabe - Kase

Ristolainen - Trochek + Pysyk 

Rodrigues + Hammond - Khudobin

Waive Hutton

[WildCard]

Man, who would thought that holding onto Risto too long would have backfired. 

I mean, who would have ***** thought that, right? Didn't see this one coming at-*****-all

[LGR4GM]

This board is smarter than than Sabres front office and we have less data and info to work with. What a joke. 

[shrader]

14 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Man, who would thought that holding onto Risto too long would have backfired. 

I mean, who would have ***** thought that, right? Didn't see this one coming at-*****-all

That's assuming they could have moved him for a second line center earlier.  I'm not so sure that I believe that one.

[WildCard]

Just now, shrader said:

That's assuming they could have moved him for a second line center earlier.  I'm not so sure that I believe that one.

It doesn't say that they can't move him for a 2C like they used to be able to, it just says his value is down. It's more likely they never were able to, thought holding onto him would drive up his value enough to get the 2C, and it hasn't.

[Randall Flagg]

Did we actually think we'd get a 2C straight up for Risto? The NHL tends to think he's awful. 

You gotta put him in a package with Mitts, a first, both, more, something