Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors

[Curt]

15 minutes ago, freester said:

How much is Botteril going o overpay Montour in his next contract?   He's already wasted a first round pick and a good prospect on him.   I'm worried were about to see another Skinner contract coming.

In your opinion, what type of contract does Montour deserve?  What would be an overpay?

[WildCard]

5 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Lol, you think a 25 year old player with over 200 nhl games is going to "get better" to any worthwhile degree.  Lol sure. 

Oh he'll be 26 in april. Even better. Wish Reinhart had his magical powers of improvement. Oh well. 

Well then it will probably shock you to learn that Ristolainen is on course for the exact same season he's had for the last 4 years of his career.

Edited February 19, 2020 by WildCard

[LGR4GM]

6 minutes ago, WildCard said:

Well then it will probably shock you to learn that Ristolainen is on course for the exact same season he's had for the last 4 years of his career.

I'm shocked, shocked I say!

[darksabre]

Not to put a ton of weight on plus/minus or anything, but Risto is having a very nice year in terms of not being on the ice for a ton of goals against, which isn't nothing. 

[WildCard]

Just now, darksabre said:

Not to put a ton of weight on plus/minus or anything, but Risto is having a very nice year in terms of not being on the ice for a ton of goals against, which isn't nothing. 

His possession and point totals look the same as they've ever been. Does anyone have a tool that can show us some more info?

[CallawaySabres]

18 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

God, I hope Lloyd’s never comes to the arena…  It’s just not that good. In my opinion

Mighty taco?… Now we’re talking!

Clearly you have never had the Dirty South there

[dudacek]

Just now, darksabre said:

Not to put a ton of weight on plus/minus or anything, but Risto is having a very nice year in terms of not being on the ice for a ton of goals against, which isn't nothing. 

The way Corsi is embraced and +/- dismissed when they have exactly the same flaws is an ongoing mystery to me, particularly when +/- measures the all-important goal, while Corsi measures the much-less significant shot.

Whatever it’s value, the guy has improved his +/- by 40. Saying he’s having the exact same season is willfully blind.

[darksabre]

8 minutes ago, WildCard said:

His possession and point totals look the same as they've ever been. Does anyone have a tool that can show us some more info?

I'd be interested in some analysis too.

4 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The way Corsi is embraced and +/- dismissed when they have exactly the same flaws is an ongoing mystery to me, particularly when +/- measures the all-important goal, while Corsi measures the much-less significant shot.

Whatever it’s value, the guy has improved his +/- by 40. Saying he’s having the exact same season is willfully blind.

He's playing about 2 minutes fewer per night this season than he ever did previously, yet putting up about the same amount of points and taking a LOT less minuses. It could be a product of reduced ice time and not playing against team's top players so often, but I'd need to see some info supporting that.

Anecdotally, I've watched most of these games this year and I simply haven't found myself going "Risto you idiot" at the TV nearly as often as I have in the past.

[triumph_communes]

Just now, darksabre said:

I'd be interested in some analysis too.

He's playing about 2 minutes fewer per night this season than he ever did previously, yet putting up about the same amount of points and taking a LOT less minuses. It could be a product of reduced ice time and not playing against team's top players so often, but I'd need to see some info supporting that.

Anecdotally, I've watched most of these games this year and I simply haven't found myself going "Risto you idiot" at the TV nearly as often as I have in the past.

The big improvement is the lack of missed break-out passes from Risto and needless icings.  The whole idea that the player may not have been awful, he was just so dog tired and had no confidence in his defensive partners all the time he developed a lot of bad habits has tons of merit.

 

But don't forget, fancy stats had Scandella as the worst player in the league by far who then turned around to be top-10 in the league in one off-season.  The predictive capability of these stats has a cpk of 0.00

[Taro T]

13 hours ago, LTS said:

What's the relative +/- on that being accurate?

Jason Botterill: "Hey, it says you guys have a guy with "check" in his name.  Our PR staff thinks we can spell his name right on a sweater, interested in trading him?"

How long before he has to wear a sweater with TROCHUCK on the back during a game?  

[LGR4GM]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The way Corsi is embraced and +/- dismissed when they have exactly the same flaws is an ongoing mystery to me, particularly when +/- measures the all-important goal, while Corsi measures the much-less significant shot.

Whatever it’s value, the guy has improved his +/- by 40. Saying he’s having the exact same season is willfully blind.

+/- measures goals in certain situations. Goals are rare. Shot events are more common and therefore give you more data points. It helps eliminate noise. 

[TrueBlueGED]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The way Corsi is embraced and +/- dismissed when they have exactly the same flaws is an ongoing mystery to me, particularly when +/- measures the all-important goal, while Corsi measures the much-less significant shot.

Whatever it’s value, the guy has improved his +/- by 40. Saying he’s having the exact same season is willfully blind.

It shouldn't be. It takes about 5 seasons worth of goal data to produce results which are as predictive as 1 season of shot data (it might not be exactly 5:1, but it's something like that). Goal data is heavily influenced by shooting and save percentages, both of which vary wildly from year to year and take a long time to show a coherent pattern we can reasonably draw inferences from. 

[Randall Flagg]

4 minutes ago, Taro T said:

How long before he has to wear a sweater with TROCHUCK on the back during a game?  

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, darksabre said:

Montour is fine. He's like Sekera. 

Yup.  A very apt comparison.And, switching gears slightly, much like Spacek, pretty sure it takes a lot of D the better part of a full season to get acclimated to their new surroundings.  Spacek - 2006: benched in the playoffs.  Spacek - 2007: team captain during the Winter Classic.

Edited February 19, 2020 by Taro T

[GASabresIUFAN]

58 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

update:
Team Montour is fine: nfreeman, darksabre, Flagg, dudacek, pi2000, DarthEbriate, WC
Team middle ground: Swamp, True, freester
Team Montour sucks: inkman, so many posters in random GDTs that I just can't remember who said what, but I swear there are a lot of 'em 

Montour is fine.

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Da fack is dat?

[DarthEbriate]

7 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Da fack is dat?

It could be a chocobo?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Question?

Given the demand for D right now, what are Risto’s, Montour’s, Miller and McCabe’s trade value.  Who has the most?  What top 6 forward can we get for one? From another teams’ perspective all have term at reasonable $ except Montour who is an RFA and shouldn’t break the bank to re-sign. This adds to their value. 

I like our top 6 D.  I think with Pilut waiting, we can afford to trade at least one to upgrade in the top 6 forwards.

I think our two best trade chips to upgrade our top 6 and get a 2C are a conditional 1st and one of those 4 D.  Thoughts?

[JimS]

18 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Da fack is dat?

It's Torchic. ?

[shrader]

Just now, JimS said:

It's Torchic. ?

Forgive me for speaking for Taro, but I repeat the question.

[Randall Flagg]

It's a pokemon whose name is going to be the typo on Vincent Trocheck's Sabres jersey.

[freester]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Question?

Given the demand for D right now, what are Risto’s, Montour’s, Miller and McCabe’s trade value.  Who has the most?  What top 6 forward can we get for one? From another teams’ perspective all have term at reasonable $ except Montour who is an RFA and shouldn’t break the bank to re-sign. This adds to their value. 

I like our top 6 D.  I think with Pilut waiting, we can afford to trade at least one to upgrade in the top 6 forwards.

I think our two best trade chips to upgrade our top 6 and get a 2C are a conditional 1st and one of those 4 D.  Thoughts?

I would not trade our !st round pick.  I'm worried that Montour is going to get paid 6 million/year by us.  I agree that to get a 2C we will have to trade MIller or Montour.  I would prefer to keep Risto since he is the only physical presence on the wimpiest team in the league.

[DarthEbriate]

3 minutes ago, JimS said:

It's Torchic. ?

After some research --- Torchic's really going to need put on height and weight in the offseason to be effective in the corners.

[JimS]

3 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

After some research --- Torchic's really going to need put on height and weight in the offseason to be effective in the corners.

It looks like he eventually evolves into Blaziken, who is 6' 3" but only 115 pounds. So, he translates into a center. ?

[DarthEbriate]

2 minutes ago, freester said:

I would not trade our !st round pick.  I'm worried that Montour is going to get paid 6 million/year by us.  I agree that to get a 2C we will have to trade MIller or Montour.  I would prefer to keep Risto since he is the only physical presence on the wimpiest team in the league.

Agreed - we need our pick this year. But I wouldn't worry about Montour's salary escalating like that... his numbers don't bear that out. He doesn't play PP and points are what really pay.

Risto is our best asset to trade. He has played point on PP,  has put up 40+ points, and he's 6'4" and strong. He can't fight but he can be physical. He's played huge minutes at times, but has shown he can't handle it over a season -- put for a playoff run, possibly. Like you, I would prefer not to move him either because he balances our soft defense, but he gets the most from another team.