Non Sabres Deadline Trades/Rumors

[WildCard]

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

14 minutes ago, WildCard said:

 

Jason going home?

[Broken Ankles]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

After this season you will reconsider. I would give Dahlin 17mil x 8. Best part is he won't ask for that. If he is who I think in terms of his talent, we are talking 8years x 12-14mil. 

I'm on record stating the Sabres will deliver a Stanley Cup based on Dahlin's timeline, not Eichel's, so I'm right there with you on expectations.  Similar to the Kings playoff run in 2011/12 with Doughty.   However there is a reason the CBA is drafted the way it is, so that RFA's have less bargaining power.  Of course the trend is to lock up players longer & earlier, but to assume a Max deal is even an option is ludicrous.  You bridge or go to 5 years to ensure you have cap space for others.  THEN you pay Max.  Not after your ELC.  

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

I'm on record stating the Sabres will deliver a Stanley Cup based on Dahlin's timeline, not Eichel's, so I'm right there with you on expectations.  Similar to the Kings playoff run in 2011/12 with Doughty.   However there is a reason the CBA is drafted the way it is, so that RFA's have less bargaining power.  Of course the trend is to lock up players longer & earlier, but to assume a Max deal is even an option is ludicrous.  You bridge or go to 5 years to ensure you have cap space for others.  THEN you pay Max.  Not after your ELC.  

These guys were only drafted 3 years apart - 2015, 2018. Say they both play 13 years - you're claiming that we definitely won't win a cup while they overlap, but definitely will in Dahlin's twilight? Or do you think that Jack's going to leave but Dahlin won't?

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

I'm on record stating the Sabres will deliver a Stanley Cup based on Dahlin's timeline, not Eichel's, so I'm right there with you on expectations.  Similar to the Kings playoff run in 2011/12 with Doughty.   However there is a reason the CBA is drafted the way it is, so that RFA's have less bargaining power.  Of course the trend is to lock up players longer & earlier, but to assume a Max deal is even an option is ludicrous.  You bridge or go to 5 years to ensure you have cap space for others.  THEN you pay Max.  Not after your ELC.  

Hold up, just a quick note. You most assuredly do not offer Rasmus Dahlin a 5 year contract. That is the worse idea. You could do another 3 years or you go 8. It is basically just those 2 options. 

I'd give Dahlin whatever he wants short of a deal that gets him to UFA status. He's going to be that good. Again though he isn't going to ask for the max and as we are now seeing, RFA's are getting more and more leverage. That's why none of them have signed. It is becoming like football almost. 

[Broken Ankles]

6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

These guys were only drafted 3 years apart - 2015, 2018. Say they both play 13 years - you're claiming that we definitely won't win a cup while they overlap, but definitely will in Dahlin's twilight? Or do you think that Jack's going to leave but Dahlin won't?

Neither.  I'm suggesting a bridge contract allows Salary Cap decisions for other players in 2021 that allows them to compete for the cup for at least 3-5 years. A Max deal for Dahlin, assuming Sam is going to get his this year ($8.5 AAV) would place the Sabres in 2021 with 4 players consuming 52% of the Cap.   I'm saying it does not have to be this way.  A 2-4 year deal in the $10M range will allow other signings so the team can compete between 2012-2025.   Whereas a Max deal would not. 

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Neither.  I'm suggesting a bridge contract allows Salary Cap decisions for other players in 2021 that allows them to compete for the cup for at least 3-5 years. A Max deal for Dahlin, assuming Sam is going to get his this year ($8.5 AAV) would place the Sabres in 2021 with 4 players consuming 52% of the Cap.   I'm saying it does not have to be this way.  A 2-4 year deal in the $10M range will allow other signings so the team can compete between 2012-2025.   Whereas a Max deal would not. 

Stop trying to sign Dahlin to a deal that gets him to UFA status faster. 

He's either getting 8 years or 3. Also we all know he won't be signing a max deal. Everyone knows he isn't getting 17mil a year. somewhere around 12-14 sounds likely unless he isn't elite. 

Edited September 3, 2019 by LGR4GM

[Broken Ankles]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Hold up, just a quick note. You most assuredly do not offer Rasmus Dahlin a 5 year contract. That is the worse idea. You could do another 3 years or you go 8. It is basically just those 2 options. 

I'd give Dahlin whatever he wants short of a deal that gets him to UFA status. He's going to be that good. Again though he isn't going to ask for the max and as we are now seeing, RFA's are getting more and more leverage. That's why none of them have signed. It is becoming like football almost. 

Of course you don't offer 5, but as you state above (which I agree with whole heatedly), the RFA leverage is using 5 years as a way to hedge their bets to both a.) get paid now, and b.) still obtain a max year deal after.    I'm just saying IF you have to go with a 5 year deal (like Matthews) then you try to max out your opportunities in that window, which includes other UFA's and then negotiate after that time.   Same would apply for a 3 year bridge.   And IF you want to go 8 (whihc I'm all for as an option too), based on the limited negotiation power of an RFA, it certainly would not be 17.2 million AAV.   You would only be competing against yourself.  

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Of course you don't offer 5, but as you state above (which I agree with whole heatedly), the RFA leverage is using 5 years as a way to hedge their bets to both a.) get paid now, and b.) still obtain a max year deal after.    I'm just saying IF you have to go with a 5 year deal (like Matthews) then you try to max out your opportunities in that window, which includes other UFA's and then negotiate after that time.   Same would apply for a 3 year bridge.   And IF you want to go 8 (whihc I'm all for as an option too), based on the limited negotiation power of an RFA, it certainly would not be 17.2 million AAV.   You would only be competing against yourself.  

I keep agreeing with you about not giving him 17mil. He will be worth that but I get not giving it to him. You either bridge at 2-3 years or go with 8 years. 

My original comment was about feeling bad if Dahlin were given the max contract for 8 years. I would not feel bad about that because he will impo live up to that. That does not mean we should do that. 

[Broken Ankles]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I keep agreeing with you about not giving him 17mil. He will be worth that but I get not giving it to him. You either bridge at 2-3 years or go with 8 years. 

My original comment was about feeling bad if Dahlin were given the max contract for 8 years. I would not feel bad about that because he will impo live up to that. That does not mean we should do that. 

Then let's stop debating it.   We agree what the term should be.  We agree  his years 4-? will be extremely successful.  We disagree slightly with the AAV.  In my opinion, no one is worth 20%.  

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Then let's stop debating it.   We agree what the term should be.  We agree  his years 4-? will be extremely successful.  We disagree slightly with the AAV.  In my opinion, no one is worth 20%.  

4 -? I think year 2 - ? will be highly successful. The kid is elite. 

 

[That Aud Smell]

^

Diggin the slow jam vibe.

OHHHHHH YEAH.

[LGR4GM]

I know I have said this before and I know I could be wrong, but it strikes me as odd how the general view of the board is that Dahlin won't be elite or a true #1 defender until year 3 or 4 or 5. 

I think he emerges this year. 

Edited September 3, 2019 by LGR4GM

[Curt]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I know I have said this before and I know I could be wrong, but it strikes me as odd how the general view of the board is that Dahlin won't be elite or a true #1 defender until year 3 or 4 or 5. 

I think he emerges this year. 

Probably because the aging curve for D are generally a little more stretched out than forwards.  Forwards often reach their scoring peaks very early in their careers (year 2-3, age 20-23), while D often take a couple years longer to get to their peak.

This is not to say that Dahlin won't set the world on fire in 2019-20, because he absolutely could.  He is definitely going to improve.  I feel very confident in that.  Your projection of 62 points is within the realm of possibility, but a little higher than my projection, maybe by 5ish points.

To me, he has already "emerged".  He is doing unprecedented things for a teenage D.  He is a 1st pair D with more improvement on the way, and at an age that puts him on course to be the best D in the NHL in a few years.

[Taro T]

45 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Stop trying to sign Dahlin to a deal that gets him to UFA status faster. 

He's either getting 8 years or 3. Also we all know he won't be signing a max deal. Everyone knows he isn't getting 17mil a year. somewhere around 12-14 sounds likely unless he isn't elite. 

Fully expecting him to get 8 years this coming off-season.  Until we see D-men getting contracts in F ranges, would expect him to end up with $10-11MM over those 8 years with the bulk in signing bonuses effectively increasing the contract value a couple of % due to TVM.  (Figure at worst any investment he'd make would gather 4% annually (likely higher) and he'd essentially be getting his money ~1/3 year early on average.)

Any deal that ends up over $12/year will tend to keep the Sabres in mid-tier player heck once all the "core" deals fully kick in.  Dahlin seems to be a guy that wants to win; could see him following the Eichel script more than the TO top guns path, but that could very much be wishful thinking.

And my expectation is he ends up ~58 pts this season (not too far from your expectation of 62).

[LGR4GM]

I really would love to see Dahlin say that he just wants to match Eichel's deal. That would be a downright steal. I agree, I think he gets signed next offseason long before he hits RFA status. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I know I have said this before and I know I could be wrong, but it strikes me as odd how the general view of the board is that Dahlin won't be elite or a true #1 defender until year 3 or 4 or 5. 

I think he emerges this year. 

I completely agree.  He will take the league by storm.  I predict that he will run the 1PP unit and his assists from that will be way over the top.  So much so that I am comfortable in saying that I expect he will lead the league in D scoring.  Yup.  I said it.  When that happens he will be awarded the Norris.  Yup.  I said that too.

As far as max contract goes, I think he will get it, or very close to it.  What that looks like $ wise depends on when the new CBA is negotiated, either 2020, or 2022.

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I know I have said this before and I know I could be wrong, but it strikes me as odd how the general view of the board is that Dahlin won't be elite or a true #1 defender until year 3 or 4 or 5. 

I think he emerges this year. 

Yup. He looks to me to be much closer to the McDavid of d-men than the Eichel. 

[Randall Flagg]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Yup. He looks to me to be much closer to the McDavid of d-men than the Eichel. 

It's so hard to compare the positions. McDavid played like the best hockey player in the world after his injury in his rookie year, and had the scoring rate to back that up, even comparing to the Crosbys and Kucherovs. Dahlin did a lot of stuff really well, but I think just about every aspect of his game was a tier or two below the Norris candidates. 

However, comparing Dahlin to his 18 year old defensive peers over time does make him stick out more like a McDavid - in a fundamentally different, less spectacular way, because of the rest of the league. Then again, Heiskanen is just one year older and pretty comparable. But maybe he's just the Matthews to Dahlin's McDavid 

 

[Thorner]

21 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

It's so hard to compare the positions. McDavid played like the best hockey player in the world after his injury in his rookie year, and had the scoring rate to back that up, even comparing to the Crosbys and Kucherovs. Dahlin did a lot of stuff really well, but I think just about every aspect of his game was a tier or two below the Norris candidates. 

However, comparing Dahlin to his 18 year old defensive peers over time does make him stick out more like a McDavid - in a fundamentally different, less spectacular way, because of the rest of the league. Then again, Heiskanen is just one year older and pretty comparable. But maybe he's just the Matthews to Dahlin's McDavid 

Is Heiskanen really that comparable though? He’s a fantastic player, but weren’t their analytic impacts pretty similar across the board (including defensively), yet Dahlin outscored him by 33.3% while on a significantly worse team? And 1 year of development at that age is massive. Kyle Connor equaled or exceeded Eichel’s NCAA marks at one year older, and he’s not close to being the player Jack is.

Edited September 3, 2019 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

7 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Is Heiskanen really that comparable though? He’s a fantastic player, but weren’t their analytic impacts pretty similar across the board (including defensively), yet Dahlin outscored him by 33.3% while on a significantly worse team? And 1 year of development at that age is massive. Kyle Connor equaled or exceeded Eichel’s NCAA marks at one year older, and he’s not close to being the player Jack is. 

They had identical ES production and Heiskanen only got 58% of Dahlin's PP ice time per game. He did only get 40% of Dahlin's PP production in that time, so maybe he's a worse PP player, but I think we're splitting hairs there as I can't say anything about Dallas' PP structure, though I watched a game there live this year and he was incredible both at ES and on the PP. 

A year can mean a lot of development, but it doesn't guarantee that Heiskanen can't be seen as a near-equal to Dahlin. I'm pretty sure he is. 

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

They had identical ES production and Heiskanen only got 58% of Dahlin's PP ice time per game. He did only get 40% of Dahlin's PP production in that time, so maybe he's a worse PP player, but I think we're splitting hairs there as I can't say anything about Dallas' PP structure, though I watched a game there live this year and he was incredible both at ES and on the PP. 

A year can mean a lot of development, but it doesn't guarantee that Heiskanen can't be seen as a near-equal to Dahlin. I'm pretty sure he is. 

But if they are already equal now, how can that extra year of development not count for a significant something? I mean it's an all-else-equal situation. 

What are the odds that Dahlin's season this year doesn't vastly outstrip Heiskanen's from last year? You have Dahlin at 55 points for this coming season in the other thread. Compare that with Heiskanen's 33 from last year. If Dahlin had 55 last year would this even be a discussion? That's the comparable. 

Edited September 3, 2019 by Thorny

[LGR4GM]

Heiskanen is to Dahlin 

As 

Eichel is to McDavid 

 

[Randall Flagg]

38 minutes ago, Thorny said:

But if they are already equal now, how can that extra year of development not count for a significant something? I mean it's an all-else-equal situation. 

What are the odds that Dahlin's season this year doesn't vastly outstrip Heiskanen's from last year? You have Dahlin at 55 points for this coming season in the other thread. Compare that with Heiskanen's 33 from last year. If Dahlin had 55 last year would this even be a discussion? That's the comparable. 

They're two hockey players that are incredibly similar in play level, born less than three quarters of a year apart. That's all I'm sayin cuz, and McDavid didn't have that guy 

[Randall Flagg]

If we're really, really insistent on post-draft season comparables, I recall reading that his Liiga season was borderline unheard of/unbelievable as an 18 year old too, does anyone have a super reliable way to compare that to Dahlin's solid if not super spectacular season in the NHL? 

He led Liiga in ice time and was voted league's best defender at age 18, was that something we can guarantee Dahlin would have beaten in the SHL? 

Edited September 3, 2019 by Randall Flagg