Constructive Ideas: Playoff Contender to Cup Contender

[Marvin]

I empathise with the need to vent on JNot.  But I want to add something to the conversation: I want to know what steps the Sabres need to make to become a clear playoff team and the steps to become a contender thereafter.  For instance, even though I doubt JNot can do it, I think he can make the Sabres a playoff team next season with some minor changes; contending is another matter entirely.  (I don't know how to improve grit, but if you have a concrete idea, I would love to know.)

Playoffs only - IMHO, 1 of these put them into playoff contention; all of them make the team a solid playoff bet:

1. Get at least an average back-up goaltender.  As many have said, if Hutton had just been merely average, the Sabres would be in the thick of the playoff race.  If we add the extra rest that Ullmark could have got, I think that puts us well into a Wild Card spot.

2. Distribute the forwards and defencemen in the system better to be able to consistently dress 12F-6D each game with relatively set lines and pairings with players clearly able to play at that level.  The juggling Krueger needs to do makes me wonder if just having a set line-up would help with preparation and chemistry.

3. Have at least 4 actual, NHL-level, natural centres on the Sabres's roster.  This is the most glaring weakness on a roster pock-marked with them.  You don't try to convert someone to centre unless injuries get really bad.  I imagine Skinner and Johansson would love a natural centre to be with them.

Contenders - I think they need all of these:

1. Get at least 1, preferably 2 #2 centres --- even if they are both 2c level..  I would like my 3c to be at least Peter McNab quality, although Dave Hannan is more realistic (2006 Playoffs Tim Connolly is not).  Heck, just a bunch of hard working 3-4 centres would work.  (Think the quartet of Roy, Gaustad, Mair, and Novotny that the Sabres used during the injury-filled 2005-6 season when Briere, Hecht, and Connolly were all out of the line-up.)

2. Have a good goaltending tandem.  Miller-Biron is my model here, although maybe one of Edwards-Sauve, Barrasso-Puppa, or Puppa--Malarchuk is the more realistic model.

3. Get balance on defence.  We need at least a couple of solid, defencive defencemen to go with all the puck-movers.

4. Add real quality depth.  One of the reasons I like 2005-7 as a model is because we had guys like Roy (he started in Rochester), Pominville, Novoty, Paille, Stafford, Thorburn, MacArthur, Ryan, and Kaleta to play with the big club.  Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo is a great bottom 6 line; it should not be the 2nd best line most nights.

[Billssabres33]

Great thoughts.  I think the simplest solution would be getting a decent backup goaltender.  I think about some of the goalies that have breezed through here recently that would have been better than Hutton...Halak, Nilsson, Johnson, Nuevirth are the ones that come to mind.  Also, i took a quick look at hockey goalies.org (http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/buffalo.html). And it looks like our most productive eras are when We have 2 decent goalies.  

Getting centers seems to be more challenging.  I think teams are clinging to centers right now.  Especially when a desperate team like Buffalo comes calling.  The asking price is likely to be high.  It makes it so imperative that Jbot make a move for the right guy.  

[freester]

On 2/6/2020 at 4:44 PM, E4 ... Ke2 said:

I empathise with the need to vent on JNot.  But I want to add something to the conversation: I want to know what steps the Sabres need to make to become a clear playoff team and the steps to become a contender thereafter.  For instance, even though I doubt JNot can do it, I think he can make the Sabres a playoff team next season with some minor changes; contending is another matter entirely.  (I don't know how to improve grit, but if you have a concrete idea, I would love to know.)

Playoffs only - IMHO, 1 of these put them into playoff contention; all of them make the team a solid playoff bet:

1. Get at least an average back-up goaltender.  As many have said, if Hutton had just been merely average, the Sabres would be in the thick of the playoff race.  If we add the extra rest that Ullmark could have got, I think that puts us well into a Wild Card spot.

2. Distribute the forwards and defencemen in the system better to be able to consistently dress 12F-6D each game with relatively set lines and pairings with players clearly able to play at that level.  The juggling Krueger needs to do makes me wonder if just having a set line-up would help with preparation and chemistry.

3. Have at least 4 actual, NHL-level, natural centres on the Sabres's roster.  This is the most glaring weakness on a roster pock-marked with them.  You don't try to convert someone to centre unless injuries get really bad.  I imagine Skinner and Johansson would love a natural centre to be with them.

Contenders - I think they need all of these:

1. Get at least 1, preferably 2 #2 centres --- even if they are both 2c level..  I would like my 3c to be at least Peter McNab quality, although Dave Hannan is more realistic (2006 Playoffs Tim Connolly is not).  Heck, just a bunch of hard working 3-4 centres would work.  (Think the quartet of Roy, Gaustad, Mair, and Novotny that the Sabres used during the injury-filled 2005-6 season when Briere, Hecht, and Connolly were all out of the line-up.)

2. Have a good goaltending tandem.  Miller-Biron is my model here, although maybe one of Edwards-Sauve, Barrasso-Puppa, or Puppa--Malarchuk is the more realistic model.

3. Get balance on defence.  We need at least a couple of solid, defencive defencemen to go with all the puck-movers.

4. Add real quality depth.  One of the reasons I like 2005-7 as a model is because we had guys like Roy (he started in Rochester), Pominville, Novoty, Paille, Stafford, Thorburn, MacArthur, Ryan, and Kaleta to play with the big club.  Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo is a great bottom 6 line; it should not be the 2nd best line most nights.

Your analogies are out of whack. 
1. we have a good backup goalie in Ullmark we need a starter number 1 goalie like Ryan Miller

2. We have Mair and Gaustad already in Larson and Girgensons. That is not what we need. We need a true #2 Center like Cirelli, RNH etc. We also need a #3 Center  

3. The log line is a 4th line not a 3rd line. Mojo belongs as a winger on 3rd line. 
 

4. We need some physicality on defense besides Risto. 
 

5.Tim Connolly 2006 playoffs was amazing 

[Ducky]

I think one of the most important things to do is get rid of Okposo's contract and maybe one other one. This opens up cap space to bring more talented players on the team.

Eichel and Dahin are or are going to be elite players at their respective positions. Cozens will be very good. They need talent to play with and 6m for Okposo is ridiculous. Do what it takes to get rid of him and do it. Not 2020's 1st though.

If I could trade Skinner, I would. Even if I had to eat 1.5m of his contract. I doubt JBot deals him seeing as he just re-signed him though.

Edited February 8, 2020 by Ducky

[Scottysabres]

Botterill would actually have to do something, like a trade for a forward or 2 that actually improve the team for it to be considered "constructive".

At this time I have 0 confidence Botterill can even wipe his ass correctly...…..let alone make a trade of that actually improves this team.

[Marvin]

10 hours ago, freester said:

Your analogies are out of whack. 
1. we have a good backup goalie in Ullmark we need a starter number 1 goalie like Ryan Miller

2. We have Mair and Gaustad already in Larson and Girgensons. That is not what we need. We need a true #2 Center like Cirelli, RNH etc. We also need a #3 Center  

3. The log line is a 4th line not a 3rd line. Mojo belongs as a winger on 3rd line. 
 

4. We need some physicality on defense besides Risto. 
 

5.Tim Connolly 2006 playoffs was amazing 

Ideally, I would like this, because I think this composition is what a real Cup Contender can look like.  I am aiming far, far lower with the first batch of ideas because I was thinking about what a Botterill-level GM could do with this team to get it into the playoffs next year -- @Scottysabres point notwithstanding, much as I agree with it.

1. I think of Ullmark currently as a low tier #1 goaltender (think Martin Biron or Clint Malarchuk) and think that we could make the playoffs with a similar goaltender.  That seems realistic for Botterill.

If we want to be a Cup contender, either he improves to clear #1 level or someone better comes along so that we have a very good #2 that we have confidence in.

2, 3. Mair-Gaustad-Kaleta is a lot like how I see Girgensons-Larsson-Okposo.  However, I can live with them as a 3rd line for this season.  Can JNot improve rest of the bottom 6 and the centre spine by next season?

The above dovetails into another issue.  One poster on HFBoards found a collection of stats that showed that Skinner and Johansson were far better off on different lines.  With our current line-up, the best I think we could do for a top 6 is Olofsson-Eichel-Johansson and Skinner-Lazar-Reinhart.  That's how badly we need middle 6 centres.

4. That was my point about balance on defence.  I need a couple of guys to allow guys like Dahlin and Jokiharu to freelance, to win puck battles along the boards, and to help with more physical teams.  IMHO, our current defence can get us to the playoffs, but we would be lucky to last 6 games with it.

@Ducky is also correct - if he doesn't regain form, the Skinner contract will be a killer for a LONG time.  I have accepted that Okposo is overpaid, but can have a positive impact on a 4th line as he is now.

5. If Botterill gets the team to a point that we have 2006 playoffs Tim Connolly as our #3 Centre, I might just take back some of the nasty things I have said about him so far.  Maybe. ?

 

[Pimlach]

Ok so we a need better goaltending tandem; 4 NHL caliber centers so add two  2C's - got it;  better forwards including 2 fighters - ok check;  and 6 good defensemen so add two more big tough defensemen - check. 

how many years will this take and how much over the cap can we go? 

[PerreaultForever]

None of this will work without changing the culture first. Just revolving doors of disappointment revolving around an inferior, perhaps rotten, core. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

The simple answer is we need more depth up front, especially center and better goaltending.  

Cozens is part of the answer and I think Mitts as well.  I believe that Skinner, Sheary and Vesey would have had much better seasons had they been playing with proven centers instead of converted winger and a kid not yet ready for the big time.

If I'm Jbot this is the template I'm starting with (NP = new player)

VO Jack Reinhart

Skinner NP NP

MoJo Cozens Mittelstadt

NP  Lazar Okposo (if he can't get rid of him). 

Others who could force their way into the lineup - Thompson and Asplund

Guys I'm looking at (Buy low candidates) 

RW - Freeport's Jeremy Bracco.  Buy low candidate who needs a fresh start.

LW - Alex Galchenyuk - Talent and also a buy low option.  Sign him in the off-season to a cheapish 1 year prove it deal

Centers - 

Dylan Strome - I'd love to steal this guy from the Black Hawks.  He'd be a great fit here and add more youth and skill.

Adam Henrique - Perfect bridge for Cozens

Cirelli - TB will find a way to keep him.  If not we should be first in line.

Hertl - SJ would have to decide they are moving in another direction,  Young enough to be our Patrick Sharp but at center.

Others

Kapanen - RW would be a perfect fit on a line with Strome and Skinner.

This group is 2 key players from being competitive even if Cozens and Mitts don't prove ready, but Jbot must execute.  Find that 2C is the most important move.  Another Ullmark or better goaltender is 2nd priority and then find a top 6/ top 9 winger.  MoJo's position flexibility means you can get the best bang for the buck on the wing.  Please note that Turris is at 51.3% in the FO circle and is now taking key FOs for us and he is on pace for a 30 pt season in a 4th line role.  I think he has made Larsson expendable. 

Best case is Jbot finds a way to get Cirelli or Strome for the 2C gig and also somehow gets Kapanen.  I'd also be ok with trying Bracco or Galchenyuk in the lineup.

Can you imagine a lineup of

VO Jack Sam

Skinner Strome Kapanen

MoJo Cozens Mittelstadt

Asplund Lazar Thompson/Okposo

How do we get to this point?

I'm going to assume Jbot wants to keep Mitts.  We are going to have to move one of Montour or Risto to facilitate the 2C acquisition now or in the summer.  I also think one of Miller or McCabe will have to be utilized to get the 2nd forward unless Jbot goes for a buy low candidate.  Also note this is a 50% turnover in the forward group if we can move on from Okposo from the starters this season.  This means that Girgensons, Sheary, Vesey, Larsson, Frolik and Erod all go bye-bye.  I know I'm in the minority but the only guy I'd even consider bringing back is Vesey.  I think he has much more to give and with his improved 2 way play and improved centers, he might just flourish here.

We can get Galchenyuk for nothing as a UFA in the summer, but it might be worth a pick to get him from the Pens now as a try out.  Sheary or Vesey with a late pick to Pitt for Galchenyuk with Pens eating a % of his contract?

Bracco would likely just cost us a 4th rd pick.

There is a boat load of decent UFA goalies this summer.  Guys like Khudobin, Crawford, Talbot, Halak, Dell, Greiss, even Jimmy Howard will all be looking for work this summer.

 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[thewookie1]

Here's my proposal:

1. Jettison UFAs that you can at the deadline and acquire assets; whatever that may even be.

2. Trade McCabe for Miles Wood (Swapping two players with nigh-identical contracts and similar roles yet different positions)

3. Hug Eichel and tell him the fans love him.

4. Sign Reinhart for 7 mil or less per year with a contract at/over 5 years.

5. Trade Mitts and our 2nd to SJ for Couture (Some Shark fans are open to this idea with how their cap situation is) 

6. Trade Montour to WPG for either Copp or Roslovic and a 3rd in 2020 and a 5th in 2021 (I fear his contract asking price in comparison to his actual team impact) (Should we ask for more?)

7. Figure out what to do with Tage Thompson

8. Sign Ullmark for about 2or3x3mil and Olofsson for about 3 to 4 mil over 3 to 5 years.

9. Find a more physical defensively minded LHD

Thus far I have

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Couture - Cozens (Skinner can swap wings if Cozens is a lefty)

Wood - Johansson - Roslovic

Asplund - Lazar - Okposo

Dahlin - Miller

Pilut - Risto

??? - Joker

Ullmark

Hutton

 

Ruotsalainen/Smith/others for Forward extras

Need an extra dman

 

 

Would like to upgrade back up still and have 7.1 mil in cap space for the spots mentioned.

-Burying Hutton = 1 mil approximately 

-Thompson still needs a contract as well

[#freejame]

3 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Here's my proposal:

1. Jettison UFAs that you can at the deadline and acquire assets; whatever that may even be.

2. Trade McCabe for Miles Wood (Swapping two players with nigh-identical contracts and similar roles yet different positions)

3. Hug Eichel and tell him the fans love him.

4. Sign Reinhart for 7 mil or less per year with a contract at/over 5 years.

5. Trade Mitts and our 2nd to SJ for Couture (Some Shark fans are open to this idea with how their cap situation is) 

6. Trade Montour to WPG for either Copp or Roslovic and a 3rd in 2020 and a 5th in 2021 (I fear his contract asking price in comparison to his actual team impact) (Should we ask for more?)

7. Figure out what to do with Tage Thompson

8. Sign Ullmark for about 2or3x3mil and Olofsson for about 3 to 4 mil over 3 to 5 years.

9. Find a more physical defensively minded LHD

Thus far I have

Olofsson - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Couture - Cozens (Skinner can swap wings if Cozens is a lefty)

Wood - Johansson - Roslovic

Asplund - Lazar - Okposo

Dahlin - Miller

Pilut - Risto

??? - Joker

Ullmark

Hutton

 

Ruotsalainen/Smith/others for Forward extras

Need an extra dman

 

 

Would like to upgrade back up still and have 7.1 mil in cap space for the spots mentioned.

-Burying Hutton = 1 mil approximately 

-Thompson still needs a contract as well

I think Couture would cost more and Montour would fetch more. We paid a first and our top d prospect for him. 

[Weave]

I remain surprised that Girgs gets no love going forward.  He's had a really good season, seems to fit what RaKru wants to do, and has filled his role well.

[LGR4GM]

Jettison the ufas who are overpaid and don't contribute. 

Replace them using analytics. Get the Donskoi types not the sheary.

You need another gt. Beg borrow steal

It is imperative to take a serious run and a 2c. Montour or Risto or Miller should be used to acquire this in a package. 

Give Reinhart 7mil for 6 years. Move him to a line with skinner.

Put jojo on line 3

Re-sign Larson. Return Zemgus to line 4.

Recognize your defense is solid but you need more offensive chance generation. 

Put Cozens in a place to succeed. 

 

Edited February 9, 2020 by LGR4GM

[freester]

1 minute ago, Weave said:

I remain surprised that Girgs gets no love going forward.  He's had a really good season, seems to fit what RaKru wants to do, and has filled his role well.

I would definitely resign Girgs for cheap deal. Get rid of Vesey, Bogo, Frolik, Sheary, Erod. I don’t think Tage will be ready to contribute next year. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

I like the idea of getting Galchenyuk. I also think Ehlers could be had for the right deal.

Ehlers  Eichel  VO

Skinner  Galchenyuk  Reinhart

MoJo  Lazar  Cozens

Girgs  Larsson  Asplund/KO

I think this could be a decent forward group.

[Curt]

12 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I like the idea of getting Galchenyuk. I also think Ehlers could be had for the right deal.

Ehlers  Eichel  VO

Skinner  Galchenyuk  Reinhart

MoJo  Lazar  Cozens

Girgs  Larsson  Asplund/KO

I think this could be a decent forward group.

Galchenyuk isn’t really a C though.  He has been tried there time and time again, but hasn’t really every succeeded there.  Might as well try Reinhart there.

[Marvin]

17 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Ok so we a need better goaltending tandem; 4 NHL caliber centers so add two  2C's - got it;  better forwards including 2 fighters - ok check;  and 6 good defensemen so add two more big tough defensemen - check. 

how many years will this take and how much over the cap can we go? 

I went to CapFriendly to work this out

You hope that Cozens, Mittlestadt, and/or someone else give you a pair of #2 centres in a few years.  Before then, you find a pair of #3Cs.

Say Eichel, Skinner, and Reinhart total $27M.  (Realistic.)

Let us take Pilut, Jokiharu, and Dahlin off their ELCs and make them and Miller all top-90 defencemen by salary and Dahlin get $10M, which puts them at $25M.

A decent 1B goaltender to go with Ullmark is not going to cost too much.  These guys (#15-25) average about $4.5M, so say they are $9M combined.

Your 2nd line with everyone between #35-40 in salary makes $14M

That's 6F in the top 1/3 of the league, 4D in the top 1/2 of the league, and 2 average G for $67M.  Let us look at the bottom half of the roster.  No one gets an ELC.

Grind-it-out, responsible defencemen are hardly that expensive.  I could live with guys like Carl Gunnarsson, Matt Grzelczyk, Braydon Coburn, and Brooks Orpik as #5-8 behind behind Dahlin-Jokiharu and Pilut-Miller.  These guys are clear 5-7 defencemen now and would be cheap as FAs.  A pair of low-end 4D total $5M.

IMHO, you can go the route of the 1995 New Jersey Devils and run a pair of lines like Girgensons-Larsson-Lazar out there for 12 minutes each.  Even with Okposo's $6M, you can put 5 other guys there who are #91 and #120 in salary at their positions for $10M total with no one on an ELC.  That's $16M total.  Incidentally, that is also the cost of a third line of all second-liners ($14M) and a 4th line of guys at the veteran minimum ($2M).

The bottom half of the roster is $21M.  That's $88M where everybody is in the top 1/2 of salary for their line-up function and Okposo.  I think that would be a Cup Contender -- and next season, Dahlin, Pilut, and Jokiharu as still on their ELCs.  This gives Cozens and Mittlestadt at the very least 2 seasons to make the team as well.

[thewookie1]

9 hours ago, #freejame said:

I think Couture would cost more and Montour would fetch more. We paid a first and our top d prospect for him. 

 

The thing is with Couture is that he is already 30 making 8 mil for 7 more years

If they want a 1st, first I'd want to know where our pick is; then I would want salary retention.

Eichel needs help and bringing in wishy-washy guys won't work as we've seen.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

I went to CapFriendly to work this out

You hope that Cozens, Mittlestadt, and/or someone else give you a pair of #2 centres in a few years.  Before then, you find a pair of #3Cs.

Say Eichel, Skinner, and Reinhart total $27M.  (Realistic.)

Let us take Pilut, Jokiharu, and Dahlin off their ELCs and make them and Miller all top-90 defencemen by salary and Dahlin get $10M, which puts them at $25M.

A decent 1B goaltender to go with Ullmark is not going to cost too much.  These guys (#15-25) average about $4.5M, so say they are $9M combined.

Your 2nd line with everyone between #35-40 in salary makes $14M

That's 6F in the top 1/3 of the league, 4D in the top 1/2 of the league, and 2 average G for $67M.  Let us look at the bottom half of the roster.  No one gets an ELC.

Grind-it-out, responsible defencemen are hardly that expensive.  I could live with guys like Carl Gunnarsson, Matt Grzelczyk, Braydon Coburn, and Brooks Orpik as #5-8 behind behind Dahlin-Jokiharu and Pilut-Miller.  These guys are clear 5-7 defencemen now and would be cheap as FAs.  A pair of low-end 4D total $5M.

IMHO, you can go the route of the 1995 New Jersey Devils and run a pair of lines like Girgensons-Larsson-Lazar out there for 12 minutes each.  Even with Okposo's $6M, you can put 5 other guys there who are #91 and #120 in salary at their positions for $10M total with no one on an ELC.  That's $16M total.  Incidentally, that is also the cost of a third line of all second-liners ($14M) and a 4th line of guys at the veteran minimum ($2M).

The bottom half of the roster is $21M.  That's $88M where everybody is in the top 1/2 of salary for their line-up function and Okposo.  I think that would be a Cup Contender -- and next season, Dahlin, Pilut, and Jokiharu as still on their ELCs.  This gives Cozens and Mittlestadt at the very least 2 seasons to make the team as well.

I could be missing something in your post but I come up with $96M....

top line...........$27M

top 4 D...........$25M

2 GT...............$9M

2nd line........$14M

2 more D......$5M

bottom 6......$16M

total..............$96M

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Jettison the ufas who are overpaid and don't contribute. 

Replace them using analytics. Get the Donskoi types not the sheary.

You need another gt. Beg borrow steal

It is imperative to take a serious run and a 2c. Montour or Risto or Miller should be used to acquire this in a package. 

Give Reinhart 7mil for 6 years. Move him to a line with skinner.

Put jojo on line 3

Re-sign Larson. Return Zemgus to line 4.

Recognize your defense is solid but you need more offensive chance generation. 

Put Cozens in a place to succeed. 

 

FYI, If we trade our UFA forwards, we are going to need to replace them in the lineup for the season.  If we intend to let Mitts, Asplund etc.. get playoff experience bringing them back up to replace departed UFA doesn't seem the best way to go.  Thus Jbot is going to have to acquire guys to replace the guys traded away.  Unless the guys are upgrades such as a 2C or 3C, it seems hardly worth the effort to trade the guys away.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

FYI, If we trade our UFA forwards, we are going to need to replace them in the lineup for the season.  If we intend to let Mitts, Asplund etc.. get playoff experience bringing them back up to replace departed UFA doesn't seem the best way to go.  Thus Jbot is going to have to acquire guys to replace the guys traded away.  Unless the guys are upgrades such as a 2C or 3C, it seems hardly worth the effort to trade the guys away.

It might not be the best but if we are sellers it would be better to get something for them rather than nothing letting them walk at years end.

Stuck between a rock and a hard place. 

[Marvin]

4 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I could be missing something in your post but I come up with $96M....

top line...........$27M

top 4 D...........$25M

2 GT...............$9M

2nd line........$14M

2 more D......$5M

bottom 6......$16M

total..............$96M

Welp, even guys with math degrees can screw up their arithmetic in a bar.  I am sooooooooooooooooo embarrassed.

I had better rethink this.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

Just now, E4 ... Ke2 said:

Welp, even guys with math degrees can screw up their arithmetic in a bar.  I am sooooooooooooooooo embarrassed.

I had better rethink this.

Human?

[Marvin]

2 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Human?

I hope to evolve into one from further down the evolutionary tree.  I am still working on it.

[thewookie1]

At the end of this season, Leino's contract will leave the Sabres book. Hopefully that will lift the curse as we haven't played in the playoffs since that contract was signed.