OT: Information on Coronavirus from the Far East

[GASabresIUFAN]

@Claude_Verret Maybe you can tell us how long it takes for a virus like this to show up in a blood test? 

It would seem to me that it would show up rather quickly even if it takes two weeks for the patient to get sick.

My question is if the virus doesn’t shows in a blood tests taken over a week or two, at some point don’t you have to let people with clean blood out of quarantine?

Edited February 13, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[kas23]

11 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

My older sister is a new anti-vaxxer and somehow has become a major Conspiracy theorist lately (too much time on the internet). She loves to argue but Franky, isn't smart enough about any of this to have the opinions she does. 

I can't help but see this In society, the number of patients who spew nonsense about vaccines, the Coronavirus, the govt did this on purpose, etc etc. I just can't with any couth handle it much anymore. 

The influenza virus, by large has and will cause more damage than this one in China, the vaccination was poor this year (as it has been in recent years). This is not to discount Corona at all, the virus is real and is a thing that has the ability to spread. But the spotlight it is receiving in this new technological age is getting outta hand! 

I would be a little careful here. The influenza virus isn’t taking out heathy people in the 30s. Plus, the number of deaths is severely being underreported and is likely over 20,000. At best this is exposing the Chinese medical system as well below substandard. At worse, this is a virus will a mortality of over 20%. 

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, kas23 said:

I would be a little careful here. The influenza virus isn’t taking out heathy people in the 30s. Plus, the number of deaths is severely being underreported and is likely over 20,000. At best this is exposing the Chinese medical system as well below substandard. At worse, this is a virus will a mortality of over 20%. 

Where did you come up with these numbers?  Out of thin air?  There are no reports of anything anywhere close to such numbers.

Outside of China, there have been something like 400+ confirmed cases and only 1 death, so it seems basically impossible that it could have something like a 20% mortality rate.

[kas23]

Tencent has been reporting these numbers. 
 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

 

I think it’s best to look outside what our mainstream media is feeding us. Btw, these numbers are fairly close to what viral epidemiologists have been targeting. 

Edited February 14, 2020 by kas23

[Curt]

24 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Tencent has been reporting these numbers. 
 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

 

I think it’s best to look outside what our mainstream media is feeding us. Btw, these numbers are fairly close to what viral epidemiologists have been targeting. 

Ten cent has not been reporting this.  Two weeks ago their website displayed very high numbers for a few hours only.  Tencent does not stand behind those numbers.  The article you linked says as much.  I say this completely understanding the control China has over information and how this can affect what is reported.  Numbers coming out of China are not necessarily reliable.

How do you explain the numbers coming from outside of China?  Every nation with confirmed cases is lying about the transmission and mortality rates?  To what end?

EDIT: correcting what I previously wrote.  There have been 580 confirmed cases and 3 deaths outside of mainland China.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Curt

[inkman]

11 minutes ago, kas23 said:

Tencent has been reporting these numbers. 
 

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

 

I think it’s best to look outside what our mainstream media is feeding us. Btw, these numbers are fairly close to what viral epidemiologists have been targeting. 

My brain tells me if skunky beer virus was as bad as these reports claim, we'd see this thing everywhere. The amount of Chinese Nationals at the U of R alone would be enough to take out every city within 500 miles.  

[shrader]

11 hours ago, inkman said:

My brain tells me if skunky beer virus was as bad as these reports claim, we'd see this thing everywhere. The amount of Chinese Nationals at the U of R alone would be enough to take out every city within 500 miles.  

So the virus is now able to instantly travel halfway around the world and infect anyone who is Chinese?  It's a good thing the reporting hasn't been too over the top because you just know that there are people out there who would actually believe this.

[inkman]

3 hours ago, shrader said:

So the virus is now able to instantly travel halfway around the world and infect anyone who is Chinese?  It's a good thing the reporting hasn't been too over the top because you just know that there are people out there who would actually believe this.

Brah, they fly home all the time. I Uber the ***** out if them weekly.  

[kas23]

17 hours ago, Curt said:

Ten cent has not been reporting this.  Two weeks ago their website displayed very high numbers for a few hours only.  Tencent does not stand behind those numbers.  The article you linked says as much.  I say this completely understanding the control China has over information and how this can affect what is reported.  Numbers coming out of China are not necessarily reliable.

How do you explain the numbers coming from outside of China?  Every nation with confirmed cases is lying about the transmission and mortality rates?  To what end?

EDIT: correcting what I previously wrote.  There have been 580 confirmed cases and 3 deaths outside of mainland China.

I take back the word “reporting”. You are right that they are not reporting this, but they did release/leak such numbers, not once, but 3 times. Not only that, they also posted numbers for the day before for comparison. These numbers were a tad bit less than the ones being released. So, this wasn’t likely a computer glitch. So, back to your original assertion, I was not pulling these number out of “thin air” as you suggested.

 

As for the mortality, I never suggested this would be mirrored outside the US. Wuhan has 11M people within its city limits and likely many million more in the metropolitan area. This is beyond the experience of many of us in the US. Here, we don’t have the experience dealing with a city this large. The hospitals are probably nuts even without the virus. But, when it happened, this system was thrown into panic and chaos. Do you really think the government would’ve quarantined such a large city, called in the military, and built 2 1200 bed “hospitals” in days for a virus that had caused less than 400 deaths at the time?

 

Let’s run some numbers and we’ll be on the conservative side. 11M people in city limits. 2.1% mortality rate. That’s around 230,000 deaths of everyone is infected, which is likely the final outcome. The Germans have shown this virus can remain alive outside the body for 8 days. A woman in HK contracted the virus through the ductwork from the quarantined lady who lived above her, who she never had direct contact with. I’m not trying to be a fear monger, but 20,000 deaths in the first month doesn’t exactly seem that outlandish.

 

Edited February 14, 2020 by kas23

[sabresparaavida]

17 hours ago, inkman said:

My brain tells me if skunky beer virus was as bad as these reports claim, we'd see this thing everywhere. The amount of Chinese Nationals at the U of R alone would be enough to take out every city within 500 miles.  

The Chinese students here at U of R would all have been back before the outbreak really got bad, you have to remember that there are a billion people in China, and there are only around a 1000 Chinese students at UR, and some wouldn't have gone home for the break.

 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, kas23 said:

I take back the word “reporting”. You are right that they are not reporting this, but they did release/leak such numbers, not once, but 3 times. Not only that, they also posted numbers for the day before for comparison. These numbers were a tad bit less than the ones being released. So, this wasn’t likely a computer glitch. So, back to your original assertion, I was not pulling these number out of “thin air” as you suggested.

As for the mortality, I never suggested this would be mirrored outside the US. Wuhan has 11M people within its city limits and likely many million more in the metropolitan area. This is beyond the experience of many of us in the US. Here, we don’t have the experience dealing with a city this large. The hospitals are probably nuts even without the virus. But, when it happened, this system was thrown into panic and chaos. Do you really think the government would’ve quarantined such a large city, called in the military, and built 2 1200 bed “hospitals” in days for a virus that had caused less than 400 deaths at the time?

Let’s run some numbers and we’ll be on the conservative side. 11M people in city limits. 2.1% mortality rate. That’s around 230,000 deaths of everyone is infected, which is likely the final outcome. The Germans have shown this virus can remain alive outside the body for 8 days. A woman in HK contracted the virus through the ductwork from the quarantined lady who lived above her, who she never had direct contact with. I’m not trying to be a fear monger, but 20,000 deaths in the first month doesn’t exactly seem that outlandish.

There are certainly some good points here.  I have an open mind.  I understand that the numbers coming from the Chinese government are probably unreliable.  I’m sure it’s true that mortality rates would be much higher in an overwhelmed hospital setting.  It’s true that the size of Wuhan and many other Chinese cities is something that isn’t present in the US outside of NYC and LA.  The numbers do get very large, very quickly.

Basically, there is still a lot that we don’t know with any certainty, and I’m cautious to get worked up without more concrete information.  You certainly have given me some things to consider though.

I hope you didn’t take offense to my “are theses numbers out of thin air?” comment.  I was truly asking where the numbers came from. I hadn’t heard anything of that magnitude.

[shrader]

2 hours ago, kas23 said:

 

Do you really think the government would’ve quarantined such a large city, called in the military, and built 2 1200 bed “hospitals” in days for a virus that had caused less than 400 deaths at the time?

Have you met China?

[kas23]

3 hours ago, shrader said:

Have you met China?

I’ve been there to meet China. I understand the govt can be overbearing and go out of their way to be so. I also have Chinese physician acquaintances, who are overworked and overburdened. It’s not a shock that they were unprepared for this. Instead of building islands and skyscrapers, perhaps they should look inwards and improve what they already have. Interestingly, the medical profession is a few notches below the engineering profession. I hope that changes. Until then, they’ll continue to be a 3rd-world country. All that said, today was a good day, Bogo was waived. 

[5th line wingnutt]

Interesting post on coronavirus:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/

[Stoner]

2 hours ago, 5th line wingnutt said:

Interesting post on coronavirus:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/14/wuhan-coronavirus-wuwt-update/

If you had an intro class on what to discount on the Internet, this link would be Lesson #1.

[Weave]

16 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

If you had an intro class on what to discount on the Internet, this link would be Lesson #1.

That whole site is a fake science wet dream.

[5th line wingnutt]

41 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

If you had an intro class on what to discount on the Internet, this link would be Lesson #1.

 

24 minutes ago, Weave said:

That whole site is a fake science wet dream.

Pick a post and critique it.  Until then your reaction is just hot air.

[Weave]

6 minutes ago, 5th line wingnutt said:

 

Pick a post and critique it.  Until then your reaction is just hot air.

Didn't see a single link to any regarded sites to back up the info.  Just alot of editorializing being passed off as factual.  And nearly all of it is counter to established, well reviewed actual scientific study.  There is your hot air.

[nfreeman]

58 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

If you had an intro class on what to discount on the Internet, this link would be Lesson #1.

 

41 minutes ago, Weave said:

That whole site is a fake science wet dream.

What?

The post is written in a pretty deliberative and scientific manner.

 

1 minute ago, Weave said:

Didn't see a single link to any regarded sites to back up the info.  Just alot of editorializing being passed off as factual.  And nearly all of it is counter to established, well reviewed actual scientific study.  There is your hot air.

There is a link to a WHO report in the 4th paragraph.  There is also a link to a NEJM report in the paragraph immediately above the "Diamond Princess" section.

[Weave]

6 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

What?

The post is written in a pretty deliberative and scientific manner.

 

There is a link to a WHO report in the 4th paragraph.  There is also a link to a NEJM report in the paragraph immediately above the "Diamond Princess" section.

Did you click on those links?  I did.  They were dead links.

[Stoner]

5 minutes ago, Weave said:

Did you click on those links?  I did.  They were dead links.

There's that. And site name + "guest blogger." Donate button. Lots of red flags.

[Stoner]

13 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

The post is written in a pretty deliberative and scientific manner.

A great illustration of how easy it is for even educated, professional people to fall into the trap. You fell for the style of writing and the fact there's "published" text on your screen. We have an inherent bias to believe things that are printed, probably because at one time if something was printed, it meant it had been vetted.

It's too bad. We live in an era some have dubbed "The end of expertise." We can't believe science, government, politicians, media, Jason Botterill. So just like so many on here have decided to manage the team themselves, now we're being asked to be professional virologists. @5th line wingnutt how in the world would I go about critiquing that blog? It might all be true, but the signs should lead people to be very suspicious. Call me naive, but I'm going to rely mainly on what the CDC says about this thing.

Meanwhile, the bugs are feasting on us by the trillions right now and they're going to have their way with our remains. Have a great weekend! The sun is out in WNY/WPA!

[nfreeman]

10 minutes ago, Weave said:

Did you click on those links?  I did.  They were dead links.

Well, those articles may have been moved to  different pages by the WHO and NEJM.  In any case, the NEJM article s now here, and it says what the writer says it says:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home

I think this is the WHO article he was referring to (but it's long and I didn't read it):  https://www.who.int/csr/sars/WHOconsensus.pdf?ua=1

I don't think he threw in those links in an attempt to mislead anyone.

 

4 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

There's that. And site name + "guest blogger." Donate button. Lots of red flags.

Well, right below "guest blogger", the name of the author is stated.

And there are many, many blogs that include "donate" buttons -- not unlike how most newspaper/magazine sites include "subscribe now" buttons.

[Stoner]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, those articles may have been moved to  different pages by the WHO and NEJM.  In any case, the NEJM article s now here, and it says what the writer says it says:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001191?query=featured_home

I think this is the WHO article he was referring to (but it's long and I didn't read it):  https://www.who.int/csr/sars/WHOconsensus.pdf?ua=1

I don't think he threw in those links in an attempt to mislead anyone.

 

Well, right below "guest blogger", the name of the author is stated.

And there are many, many blogs that include "donate" buttons -- not unlike how most newspaper/magazine sites include "subscribe now" buttons.

Fair enough. Can we agree that at times of crisis that the best shot we have at accurate, reliable information is going to be from our government? Should we really run around the Internet trying to find out what's really going on?

[LTS]

Just now, PASabreFan said:

Fair enough. Can we agree that at times of crisis that the best shot we have at accurate, reliable information is going to be from our government? Should we really run around the Internet trying to find out what's really going on?

I wouldn't agree to that, ever.  The government has been proven to distort truth and outright lie.  

I trust US governmental information as much as I would a stock tip from a homeless guy.

I also wouldn't look at this article and the end all be all.  The truth, as always, is usually somewhere in between.  You have to look at the prevailing commentary and begin to decipher the patterns of information that are coming out.  Weigh each one, and then decide which way you want to be swayed.

Very few sources of information are not subject to marketing or spin or at least an unconcious or conscious bias.