The only two reasons the tank didn’t work

[triumph_communes]

Lehner being a headcase in his tenure is just part of the disaster that was Murray.

 

Guy spent all the years of assets like an addict for 'his guys'.  Yet, the compilation of 'his guys' ended up with a team of alcoholics, me-firsts, and no culture to reign any of those bad actors in.  Do none of you remember O'Reilly's brother?  His dad before he came to Buffalo?  What he did as soon as he signed his contract, literally defacing a player we have in the rafters and running from the scene?  Ya'll think that just ended off the ice? haha  Evander Kane... the guy who only had a modicum of success when a player literally forced him to live with him to get his act straight, and even then, has let down his new team on his new contract.  Bogosian.... do I need to say more?  Okposo-- woosh

 

Also, Murray missed on every single one of the prospects that were 'his guys'.  They were all complete busts except for the 7th rounder-- and you can't give anyone credit for a player they waited until the 7th round to try picking.  Murray single handily mismanaged every part of the tank, and I still don't believe anyone gives the current cast enough benefit of the doubt of how bad things were from Murray's tenure.  Remember when Housley started and flat out said-- these guys can't even pass the puck I don't understand how they're NHLers, I need to spend months going back to the basics before I can even begin implementing anything I was doing in Nashville before this.  Woo, that was bad

 

Go back and don't make any of those trades.  Just draft with all of those 1st and 2nd round picks.  Assume he still misses on every pick he still took (where he missed on every single one), and give him half of the remaining picks he didn't.  Still below average hit-rate, but better than we have today.  Now look at our line-up prior to what Botterill had done.  Night and day.

 

 

I'm not sure Lehner being good for us would've made much of a difference.  Goalies are a problem today, but the guy still is a headcase.  Botterill managed to sign a UFA goalie to wean-in Ullmark, who is actually doing fairly well.  No all-star, but hard to complain too much.  The Islanders, after his great season with Lehner, still moved on from him.  And if he stayed with us he's making $6MM for another 5 years at least.  Nope.

 

Worrying about Mittelstadt is a bit premature.  At least the huge miss, in a stacked year with Nylander, ended up turning out majorly in our favor with a trade.

Edited January 6, 2020 by triumph_communes

[pi2000]

I put the entirety of the blame on lottery balls.    If they get McDavid, then they get Babcock and other FA's want to play here, so it snowballs from there....

[shrader]

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

 

They are former NE Patriots coaches, I think.

They're also 4 people who have never been in my kitchen.

[Eleven]

4 minutes ago, shrader said:

They're also 4 people who have never been in my kitchen.

That's what you think.

[shrader]

3 minutes ago, Eleven said:

That's what you think.

I thought I was going to be able to taunt you with this one, but apparently two of them died about 2 years after my house was built.  On another note, each time I see Raymond Berry, I think Perry Mason.

As for the thread topic, with or without the tank, I'm convinced they still would not have made the right moves that would have righted the ship.  They hired the wrong people and they would have done that no matter what.  I really wonder if it mostly comes down to sub-par player development, or if that is in fact poor drafting.  They have made next to nothing out of their non-1st round picks for a long time now.  I won't judge the recent ones for obvious reasons, but from 2006-2015, you have Ullmark, McCabe, and Olofsson (maybe a little earliy on that last one, also maybe include Mike Weber and Foligno), that's it.  Anyone else from that stretch who was productive did it elsewhere, all while returning very short-term assets at best (Byron, McNabb, still feels a bit early to judge Compher, Lemieux, and Petersen).  I think they would have spiraled down this path either way.

[CallawaySabres]

Why did the Bills have to lose in that fashion?! WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?

[sweetlou]

I still remember where I was for the lottery draft when Edmonton (a Canadian team) won the lottery and the right to pick McDavid.  I knew we would still get a good player in Eichel but preferred McDavid. 

I also was hoping they would pick the bigger, faster goal scorer in Draisaitl the year before instead of taking the "high IQ" set up man in Reinhart. 

Those two drafts alone changed what GMTM and Terry were hoping for.  Everything after that involving trades is moot point if the Sabres have Draisaitl and McDavid. 

I believe McDavid and ROR as two Canadians would have been able to co exist.  

Imagine the core of McDavid, ROR, and Draisaitl instead of Eichel, Reinhart, and Skinner.

[7+6=13]

1 hour ago, shrader said:

They're also 4 people who have never been in my kitchen.

Too many cooks will spoil the stew. 

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, sweetlou said:

I believe McDavid and ROR as two Canadians would have been able to co exist.  

I don't think the rift (if there even really was one) was nationality based.

[tom webster]

2 hours ago, sweetlou said:

I still remember where I was for the lottery draft when Edmonton (a Canadian team) won the lottery and the right to pick McDavid.  I knew we would still get a good player in Eichel but preferred McDavid. 

I also was hoping they would pick the bigger, faster goal scorer in Draisaitl the year before instead of taking the "high IQ" set up man in Reinhart. 

Those two drafts alone changed what GMTM and Terry were hoping for.  Everything after that involving trades is moot point if the Sabres have Draisaitl and McDavid. 

I believe McDavid and ROR as two Canadians would have been able to co exist.  

Imagine the core of McDavid, ROR, and Draisaitl instead of Eichel, Reinhart, and Skinner.

I would like someone who believes there was a rift between ROR and Jack to explain why they had dinner along with Sam when St. Louis came to town?

[Taro T]

28 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I would like someone who believes there was a rift between ROR and Jack to explain why they had dinner along with Sam when St. Louis came to town?

Well, obviously, they were both vying to be young Samson Reinhart's bestestest of bestest buddies and neither trusted the other alone with him.  (Where's the wacko emoji when you need it?)

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, WildCard said:

Dan Bylsma

Tim Murray

Jason Botterill

Phil Housley

The missing names are the 21 scouts in this organization and only 2 of them are retired players I recognize immediately.  I don't know if any of them were here under Murray or earlier, but bad drafting is the hallmark of a failed organization.  

[Pimlach]

7 hours ago, tom webster said:

Now, I know there are multiple reasons, opinions, variable universe possibilities that could have changed everything. 
As I approach my 60th birthday, I have had many revelations but one thing that keeps hitting me in the face is how much luck, fate and happenstance plays into how things play out. I can shout it out publicly now because my four children have become awesome, successful adults and I don’t have to worry about them just lazing about waiting for their life to be determined by some uncontrollable circumstance or circumstances. They bought all that stuff about hard work, getting an education and treating everyone with respect even if you think ninety percent of them are dumb as a bag of rocks.

So I’m going to say it, The Buffalo Sabre’s would be one if the best teams in the league if Robin L. had figured out his mental issues sooner and Elias Petterson fell to them instead of Casey.

Now obviously that didn’t happen and it’s incumbent on them to find a true number two center and number one goaltender but my point is that all the rest of it is irrelevant.

According to a study in 2018, they were number 11 in drafting the last ten years prior. They have their share of diamonds in the rough, dumb decisions, poor development, dumb coaching hires, head scratching ownership moves.....Even Bill Belichek doesn’t look so smart when his QB can’t complete NFL required throws.

None if it matters, a true number two center and top ten goaltending make them cup contenders. Everything else takes care of itself.

 

FIRE AWAY

Lehner healthy and Peterson instead of Mitts.  Sure that helps you add a solid goalie and another budding star forward.  
 

I think the real root cause is that the started with a bloated and confusing organizational structure, poor front office talent (Pegula, Brandon, Black, LaFontaine, Batista, Murray, Nolan) that lacked hockey talent management skills and leadership.  GMTM emerged out of this mess, not having GM experience, and he took shortcuts while leading the tank.  He had no experience in a major rebuild.   He  gave up assets too freely, did not develop the farm system, and communicated poorly.   

[miles]

the problem as i see it is quite simple. they traded away every single player that was any good. it takes way more than 1 player to win consistently. 

its not like basketball where 2 or 3 years of horrible play could get you 2 or 3 players to become a top notch team; you need a lot more in hockey

Edited January 7, 2020 by miles

[Curt]

16 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Lehner healthy and Peterson instead of Mitts.  Sure that helps you add a solid goalie and another budding star forward.  
 

I think the real root cause is that the started with a bloated and confusing organizational structure, poor front office talent (Pegula, Brandon, Black, LaFontaine, Batista, Murray, Nolan) that lacked hockey talent management skills and leadership.  GMTM emerged out of this mess, not having GM experience, and he took shortcuts while leading the tank.  He had no experience in a major rebuild.   He  gave up assets too freely, did not develop the farm system, and communicated poorly.   

I see it very similar to the way you do.  The issues started from the top.  Pegula put too many of the wrong people in place.

I tend to place a lot of blame at Murray's feet.  I don’t really think he traded too many assets, at least not to the extent that some say.  He also made a lot of draft picks and a team can only sign so many players.  However, his drafting was no better than mediocre.  His communication, teambuilding, and organization building flat out stunk.  His team imploded.  ZFG was kinda fun but he just wasn’t a team guy who was going to bring everyone together into something that worked. 

I like Botterill’s ideaology a lot move, and I just hope that Pegula stays out of things as much as possible.

[Kruppstahl]

The OP greatly, and I mean greatly overvalues the quality of the team as currently assembled. 

That is extremely common among all fan groups, particularly Sabres fans.

We are 4, 5, or 6 really good important pieces away from being a Cup contender.

 

 

 

[tom webster]

2 minutes ago, Kruppstahl said:

The OP greatly, and I mean greatly overvalues the quality of the team as currently assembled. 

That is extremely common among all fan groups, particularly Sabres fans.

We are 4, 5, or 6 really good important pieces away from being a Cup contender.

 

 

 

Nope.

[Crusader1969]

Not to nitpick but this thread should be why the rebuild didn’t work.  The Tank got us one of the top 5 or 6 forwards in the league.  The exact type of player to build around 

luckily there is still many years left in the career of eichel and Dahlin 

[Curt]

14 minutes ago, Kruppstahl said:

The OP greatly, and I mean greatly overvalues the quality of the team as currently assembled. 

That is extremely common among all fan groups, particularly Sabres fans.

We are 4, 5, or 6 really good important pieces away from being a Cup contender.

Please list them.  It will make for interesting discussion if nothing else.

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, miles said:

the problem as i see it is quite simple. they traded away every single player that was any good. it takes way more than 1 player to win consistently. 

its not like basketball where 2 or 3 years of horrible play could get you 2 or 3 players to become a top notch team; you need a lot more in hockey

Please list the “good” players that they traded away? 

[Crusader1969]

19 minutes ago, Kruppstahl said:

The OP greatly, and I mean greatly overvalues the quality of the team as currently assembled. 

That is extremely common among all fan groups, particularly Sabres fans.

We are 4, 5, or 6 really good important pieces away from being a Cup contender.

 

 

 

They are a quality 2C away and either a hot goalie or an elite goalie away IMHO 
as for the elite goalie, I’m learning to be extra cautious when it comes to prospects, but UPL has been elite at every level he’s played so far.  
the 2C is much more problematic 

 

[DarthEbriate]

We don't believe in the tank is why the tank fails.

Everyone has brought up tons of good points and the only counter I have from @tom webster's post is that it's limited to only 2.

A thing I can add is that when you strip the cupboards bare of NHL talent, you're forced to play the best you have, even if they're not ready. Our organization was so scarred by the loss of Drury and Briere, and financial troubles/new ownership, and a split-affiliate AHL team that when it was finally time to admit to a full rebuild and "suffering" we had nothing left to support the facade. This is a good thing about Botterill -- we're restocking Rochester and when it's time for a player to come up, they're ready. (Mitts never went to ROC as he initially should have.)

Regier actually started out OK with 4 1st round picks in his final two drafts (regardless if they were the right 4 players to pick or at the right positions). But then a year later (Reinhart's rookie year/the full-on tank year) all four of them played plenty of time in the NHL! Because there was no one good enough to keep them down. But in rushing them into the buzzsaw of a tank and the merry-go-round of coaches and getting pummeled each night, I don't think any of them has reached their full potential.

(As an example, taking the next picks in the draft: if we'd have taken Faksa and Ceci in 2012 and Horvat and Lazar 2013, I'd believe we'd have worse versions of those players on our team today -- if they made it -- than what they've become.)

[bunomatic]

4 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I don't think the rift (if there even really was one) was nationality based.

I don’t think the rift existed. Eichel has talked about going to the garden to watch his pal win the cup. They go out for dinner. If there was a rift big enough to have a player traded out of town they wouldn’t be hookin up for dinner as ex team mates. The rift is a Sabres urban myth.

[Weave]

23 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

We don't believe in the tank is why the tank fails.

Everyone has brought up tons of good points and the only counter I have from @tom webster's post is that it's limited to only 2.

A thing I can add is that when you strip the cupboards bare of NHL talent, you're forced to play the best you have, even if they're not ready. Our organization was so scarred by the loss of Drury and Briere, and financial troubles/new ownership, and a split-affiliate AHL team that when it was finally time to admit to a full rebuild and "suffering" we had nothing left to support the facade. This is a good thing about Botterill -- we're restocking Rochester and when it's time for a player to come up, they're ready. (Mitts never went to ROC as he initially should have.)

Regier actually started out OK with 4 1st round picks in his final two drafts (regardless if they were the right 4 players to pick or at the right positions). But then a year later (Reinhart's rookie year/the full-on tank year) all four of them played plenty of time in the NHL! Because there was no one good enough to keep them down. But in rushing them into the buzzsaw of a tank and the merry-go-round of coaches and getting pummeled each night, I don't think any of them has reached their full potential.

(As an example, taking the next picks in the draft: if we'd have taken Faksa and Ceci in 2012 and Horvat and Lazar 2013, I'd believe we'd have worse versions of those players on our team today -- if they made it -- than what they've become.)

This is the real crux of it.  Tanking for two straight seasons required a teardown of such magnitude that we ended up with 7 seasons with players in the lineup that should have been in lower levels being developed.  Any process that requires full organizational depth to be on the NHL team is doomed to failure.

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, Weave said:

This is the real crux of it.  Tanking for two straight seasons required a teardown of such magnitude that we ended up with 7 seasons with players in the lineup that should have been in lower levels being developed.  Any process that requires full organizational depth to be on the NHL team is doomed to failure.

It didn't require it. We also draft like garage. Maybe botterill is better but his insistence on ignoring the chl will hurt us.