Dead Team Walking - Are the Sabres Even Fixable?

[sabremike]

We are 10 points out at the All Star break, so barring a miracle of biblical proportions our season is over and we are basically just playing out the string for the 9th consecutive season months before it ends. Trading for rentals at this point would be a terrible idea and just make our situation even worse.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Could this loss tonight be the excuse Jbot needs to be aggressive at the deadline or is it the excuse to sell a couple UFAs and call it a season?

[Kruppstahl]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Could this loss tonight be the excuse Jbot needs to be aggressive at the deadline or is it the excuse to sell a couple UFAs and call it a season?

I expect us to be sellers at the deadline.  I hope he can use the deadline to FINALLY put together a large deal perhaps involving multiple players.

Contrary to what some posters here like to suggest, this team needs to be substantially replaced with fresh blood.  Lots of fresh blood.  We can't ship enough of these deadbeats out the door.

Of course, Botterill rarely does what needs to be done.

Maybe he will make no moves of any kind at the deadline! 

I think a mob would march on the arena downtown if that happens. That could be entertaining.

 

 

 

 

 

[WildCard]

We're not

[GASabresIUFAN]

I've been doing some deep breathing and trying to get my head around to what Jbot must be thinking right now.  He must know this team as constructed cannot win.

He then has to ask what pieces of a good team does he even have.

At forward he has 4 players - Jack, Sam, VO and Skinner and the rest are cannon fodder.

On Defense he has 2 players (Dahlin and Jokiharju) and 3 possible other pieces (Ristolainen, Montour, Pilut) and 2 reasonable trade pieces for teams needing D for the playoffs in McCabe and Miller.  Depending on RK and Jbot's view of things that 3 possible other pieces could also be moved.

In goal he has nothing.  Ultimately he has 6-8 pieces of a good team.  That's it.  Not much for a 7 year tear down and rebuild.

In the Pipeline he has Cozens and 3 other possible pieces that he can't be 100 sure of in Mitts, Thompson and Asplund.  His goaltending help is probably 2 years away.  Outside of Pilut and maybe Borgen there is no help coming from Rochester on defense for a year or two.

So what is the plan now?  Is there a get through the season plan?  Is there a fix the team in the summer plan?  What are the next steps?

I know many here have had enough of Jbot, like I did of TM.  I understand it.  Some here are still suffering from ROR trade stress disorder. However changing coach and GM again aren't likely going to move this team forward.  I'm sorry to say but actually think we need to give Jbot through next year because of how he setup the cap structure of this team over the last two seasons.  

The question is how effectively does he use his cap relief this off-season to build a playoff team?  He also has a quandary about selling off players at the deadline.  I doubt he wants to strip the Amerks down to fill Buffalo's roster as they are likely to go to the playoffs.  Certainly I'd rather have Pilut, Borgen, Asplund and Mitts in Rochester getting playoff PT.   However we need more depth in the pipeline and are already lacking 3rd picks for the next 2 years.

Step one the forwards:  Identify who in the forward group has trade value and who if any do you think you still might want back next season.  I'm putting feelers out on Frolik, MoJo, KO, Sheary, Vesey, ERod, Larsson and Z.  The only one I want to keep is Lazar and maybe MoJo.  If I can find takers for 4 of these guy.  See yeah.  

Step two the D.  I'm moving at least two of Bogo, Miller, McCabe, Montour and Risto.  

Step 3: the goaltending.  Try to move Hutton.  If you can't he is waived at year's end.  I'm keeping Ullmark but on a two year contract and finding help.  Trying out Johansson to see if he deserves a shot at the NHL for the fall.

Step 4:  Find a minimum of 2 new centers between now and next season in addition to Cozens.  I don't care how.  

Step 5: Be bold - Offer sheet for Cirelli. Check.  Swap bad contract to get rid of KO. Check.  Go after a young talented player needing a fresh start - Galchenyuk and Pujujarvi come to mind, but I'm sure there are others. Check.  Trade a big piece like Risto to get another big piece.    

FOR GOD SAKES JBOT DO SOMETHING ALREADY.  Tomorrow morning the first head needs to roll.

 

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[PerreaultForever]

It's too late. Bringing in rentals would be dumb. We are not going to catch anybody, especially if Ullmark is seriously injured. Sell off every UFA for whatever you can get and move out anybody else who has issues or isn't fully buying in to whatever this plan is (I have no idea any more what it is). If you can manage to move out all that salary you can also take on some dead man walking contracts that teams can't unload (assuming they end after this season) to finish out the year. 

Also find out exactly what the RFAs want now and if their numbers are way off your plan move them as well. Now, while you maybe can. 

Sell sell sell. Restructure restructure restructure. Something has to change.

[Curt]

Am I totally crazy for thinking that if you added 2 top-6 forwards, one of them being a C, to this team and another goalie at least as good as a Ullmark, this would be a playoff team???  Hasn't this been the issue for the entire season?  Didn’t we all say this from the start?

I firmly believe that this team does not need to be blown to oblivion.  I just needs a few better players.

[Weave]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

Am I totally crazy for thinking that if you added 2 top-6 forwards, one of them being a C, to this team and another goalie at least as good as a Ullmark, this would be a playoff team???  Hasn't this been the issue for the entire season?  Didn’t we all say this from the start?

I firmly believe that this team does not need to be blown to oblivion.  I just needs a few better players.

2 top 6 players is a pretty big acquisition.  You don’t seem many teams adding two top 6 guys in one season.

If that were to happen it would push a couple of players off the roster.  Erod, Sheary, Okoso, Vesey, Girgensons, Larsson, take your pick.

 That would def make the team look very different.  Would that and a respectable goalie make this a playoff team?  I think so.  But adding 2 top 6 players is a pretty big deal. Especially considering you most likely would have to give up real players to get them unless you are buying rentals.  
 

And that’s where the calculus gets interesting.  Give up a real player to get another real player and now you are talking marginal improvement with bottom guys maybe still on the roster.  Does that get us playoffs? I’m not as certain.

[Curt]

33 minutes ago, Weave said:

2 top 6 players is a pretty big acquisition.  You don’t seem many teams adding two top 6 guys in one season.

Oh yes, agree.  I’m not discounting the difficulty of acquiring 2 top 6 forwards.  That’s not easy.

This is more in response to the multiple posts I saw saying that the the entire roster needs to dismantled and shot into outer space, as if the players are infected with Buffaloitis and now are ruined.

I firmly disagree with that.  They just need more good hockey players.

[DarthEbriate]

4 hours ago, Curt said:

Oh yes, agree.  I’m not discounting the difficulty of acquiring 2 top 6 forwards.  That’s not easy.

This is more in response to the multiple posts I saw saying that the the entire roster needs to dismantled and shot into outer space, as if the players are infected with Buffaloitis and now are ruined.

I firmly disagree with that.  They just need more good hockey players.

The two top 6 forwards is tricky, but one via trade (2C) with several assets going back and one via free agency (winger) is definitely doable.

I think you're right that the roster isn't so far out of whack. The 2C is the key. Just swap ROR back into our lineup for Berglund/Sobotka/Thompson (hey, that was easy!) and on paper a lot of other things slide nicely into place and it looks like a playoff team. And you can always trade for a gritty winger with playoff experience at the deadline as a rental (provided you're about to make the playoffs and the other team isn't).

As to the roster dismantling. It isn't needed if you land the 2C. My worry is all the expiring contracts --- it's absolutely an opportunity to improve, but also we're dismantling our bottom 9 this offseason whether we want it or not. (Which means an entire team learning cohesion and chemistry, etc. to start next season, which could mean a very sluggish start, which could lead to more suffering if the team doesn't find itself after 20 games and get it in full-on winning mode.)

[GASabresIUFAN]

The problem is this team outside of Jack is devoid of centers.  It’s the same issue that killed DR’s teams.  For some reason we just don’t draft and develop good centers.  Outside of Jack and Gaustad and Derek Roy, I can’t think of any centers we have drafted and developed as centers successfully.  Briere, Connolly, Drury, Peca, and even Larsson all came from other teams.

Girgensons is in the KHL, Girgensons and Reinhart are wingers.  Asplund is trending toward the wing and probably Casey also.

Assuming Cozens becomes our 3rd line center next season, where do we get two legit centers? We need an upgrade on Larsson as well.  

To get this done, I’m willing to do the following now or in the summer.

1) Trade Montour or Ristolainen to get a good 2nd line center.  He doesn’t have to be ROR quality but he must add scoring, win draws and young enough to be here for 2-3 years (or more)

2) Trade Miller or McCabe to improve forward depth.

3) Find a player or two needing a fresh start.  Find the next Briere or JP Dumont. Galchenyuk and Pujujarvi are obvious ones, but there are always others. 

4) Get some players with winning playoff experience.  Drury brought that attitude.  

5) Unload the old and tired Sabres as best you can.  Move on from McCabe, Girgensons, Larsson, KO.  Etc...

6) As to KO, I might trade him for Kyle Turris in a swap of bad contracts just to get a real center.

7) Play as many kids as possible for the rest of the season even if it means the Amerks lose a few more games (I’ve re-thought my position on this).  Johansson, Asplund, Pilut, Borgen, and Oglevie should all get significant PT in Buffalo for the rest of the season to see if they have the goods to help us, but I’m leaving Casey in Rochester. 

8.) Listen to all offers for all players not named Eichel, Jokiharju and Dahlin. 

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[Curt]

2 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

The two top 6 forwards is tricky, but one via trade (2C) with several assets going back and one via free agency (winger) is definitely doable.

I think you're right that the roster isn't so far out of whack. The 2C is the key. Just swap ROR back into our lineup for Berglund/Sobotka/Thompson (hey, that was easy!) and on paper a lot of other things slide nicely into place and it looks like a playoff team. And you can always trade for a gritty winger with playoff experience at the deadline as a rental (provided you're about to make the playoffs and the other team isn't).

As to the roster dismantling. It isn't needed if you land the 2C. My worry is all the expiring contracts --- it's absolutely an opportunity to improve, but also we're dismantling our bottom 9 this offseason whether we want it or not. (Which means an entire team learning cohesion and chemistry, etc. to start next season, which could mean a very sluggish start, which could lead to more suffering if the team doesn't find itself after 20 games and get it in full-on winning mode.)

I think a number of bottom 6 UFAs could be back next season.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see any of Larsson, Girgensons, Sheary, Vesey, Lazar (but not all of them) back next season.  I don’t think a lot of new faces would necessarily lead to a sluggish start anyway.  Everyone started with a new system under Krueger, and they played alright to open the season.

[Tondas]

Everything is fixable with intelligent management, capable scouting, competent drafting, strong coaching and ownership support.  Easily said, more difficult executing.  My concern with Terry Pegula is that he must (should) know this but can't execute it.  At this point, I would try to hire Rick Dudley as GM and Gallant (or Laviolette) as coach.  Retreads, yes.  But they will get us back to relevancy in the next 2 years.

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, Tondas said:

Everything is fixable with intelligent management, capable scouting, competent drafting, strong coaching and ownership support.  Easily said, more difficult executing.  My concern with Terry Pegula is that he must (should) know this but can't execute it.  At this point, I would try to hire Rick Dudley as GM and Gallant (or Laviolette) as coach.  Retreads, yes.  But they will get us back to relevancy in the next 2 years.

The problem is you can’t keep scrapping the management.  I might hire Dudley as an advisor to Jbot but I’m not firing RK after a year and I’m not dumping Jbot if I’m Pegula at this point.

As I mentioned up thread I think we have a core of VO, Skinner, Eichel, Jack, Dahlin and Jokiharju.  I also said we need 3 centers behind Jack.  

Ask yourself how much better would Vesey, Skinner, Sheary and MoJo be if they were being centered by guys like Bonino and Henrique or players like them?

With Ullmarks decent goaltending and an 8 deep D group would this be a playoff team with the edition of those 2 centers or players like them?

I think the answer is Yes.  

So what does Jbot need to do.  Get a 2c.  Get Henrique now or get Cirelli over the summer.  Find a Bozak or Bonino type player in free agency this summer.  Move 2 D now or this summer to help build forward depth but focus on getting the centers first.  

Also get another good goalie.  Someone who can challenge Ullmark for the starters job. 
 

Although I’m as pissed as everyone, I agree with Curt that we aren’t as far away as some think.  However these issues have been here now for two seasons and I blame Jbot for not addressing them sooner.  MoJo was a reasonable attempt to help fix forward depth and possibly the 2c but the backup plan was Mitts and that wasn’t a legit backup plan.
 

 

[Weave]

The issue with simply plugging 2 more centers onto this roster and saying,” see how good this looks “ is that in order to get 2 good centers you are going to have to give up some of the good roster players on this team to get them.  So you can’t just plug in X and Y and say we’re improved.

Somewhere this roster gets downgraded to upgrade center. 
 

The ugly downside to tearing the team down to nothing is now we are pretty much solely dependent on the timing required to rebuild almost completely through the draft.  The risk that it would take this long or longer was always high.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The problem is you can’t keep scrapping the management.  I might hire Dudley as an advisor to Jbot but I’m not firing RK after a year and I’m not dumping Jbot if I’m Pegula at this point.

As I mentioned up thread I think we have a core of VO, Skinner, Eichel, Jack, Dahlin and Jokiharju.  I also said we need 3 centers behind Jack.  

Ask yourself how much better would Vesey, Skinner, Sheary and MoJo be if they were being centered by guys like Bonino and Henrique or players like them?

With Ullmarks decent goaltending and an 8 deep D group would this be a playoff team with the edition of those 2 centers or players like them?

I think the answer is Yes.  

So what does Jbot need to do.  Get a 2c.  Get Henrique now or get Cirelli over the summer.  Find a Bozak or Bonino type player in free agency this summer.  Move 2 D now or this summer to help build forward depth but focus on getting the centers first.  

Also get another good goalie.  Someone who can challenge Ullmark for the starters job. 
 

Although I’m as pissed as everyone, I agree with Curt that we aren’t as far away as some think.  However these issues have been here now for two seasons and I blame Jbot for not addressing them sooner.  MoJo was a reasonable attempt to help fix forward depth and possibly the 2c but the backup plan was Mitts and that wasn’t a legit backup plan.
 

 

You finally found the answer to our 2c  but, which one gets the 1C ....Eichel or Jack???

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

You finally found the answer to our 2c  but, which one gets the 1C ....Eichel or Jack???

Lol.  I meant Reinhart.  That said anyone have a player replicating machine?

[freester]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The problem is you can’t keep scrapping the management.  I might hire Dudley as an advisor to Jbot but I’m not firing RK after a year and I’m not dumping Jbot if I’m Pegula at this point.

As I mentioned up thread I think we have a core of VO, Skinner, Eichel, Jack, Dahlin and Jokiharju.  I also said we need 3 centers behind Jack.  

Ask yourself how much better would Vesey, Skinner, Sheary and MoJo be if they were being centered by guys like Bonino and Henrique or players like them?

With Ullmarks decent goaltending and an 8 deep D group would this be a playoff team with the edition of those 2 centers or players like them?

I think the answer is Yes.  

So what does Jbot need to do.  Get a 2c.  Get Henrique now or get Cirelli over the summer.  Find a Bozak or Bonino type player in free agency this summer.  Move 2 D now or this summer to help build forward depth but focus on getting the centers first.  

Also get another good goalie.  Someone who can challenge Ullmark for the starters job. 
 

Although I’m as pissed as everyone, I agree with Curt that we aren’t as far away as some think.  However these issues have been here now for two seasons and I blame Jbot for not addressing them sooner.  MoJo was a reasonable attempt to help fix forward depth and possibly the 2c but the backup plan was Mitts and that wasn’t a legit backup plan.
 

 

Keeping an incompetent like Botteril will only mortgage the future for a longer period of time. I have no faith in his ability to spend the available cap space and make prudent moves to  make us a contender.  We need an experienced proven GM to make the moves now. 
 

I highly doubt Cirelli is available.  He’s exactly what we need. 

[Zamboni]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The problem is you can’t keep scrapping the management.  I might hire Dudley as an advisor to Jbot but I’m not firing RK after a year and I’m not dumping Jbot if I’m Pegula at this point.

As I mentioned up thread I think we have a core of VO, Skinner, Eichel, Jack, Dahlin and Jokiharju.  I also said we need 3 centers behind Jack.  

Ask yourself how much better would Vesey, Skinner, Sheary and MoJo be if they were being centered by guys like Bonino and Henrique or players like them?

With Ullmarks decent goaltending and an 8 deep D group would this be a playoff team with the edition of those 2 centers or players like them?

I think the answer is Yes.  

So what does Jbot need to do.  Get a 2c.  Get Henrique now or get Cirelli over the summer.  Find a Bozak or Bonino type player in free agency this summer.  Move 2 D now or this summer to help build forward depth but focus on getting the centers first.  

Also get another good goalie.  Someone who can challenge Ullmark for the starters job. 
 

Although I’m as pissed as everyone, I agree with Curt that we aren’t as far away as some think.  However these issues have been here now for two seasons and I blame Jbot for not addressing them sooner.  MoJo was a reasonable attempt to help fix forward depth and possibly the 2c but the backup plan was Mitts and that wasn’t a legit backup plan.
 

 

This is a pretty reasonable take. Not exaggerating or off the rails at all. ??

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, freester said:

Keeping an incompetent like Botteril will only mortgage the future for a longer period of time. I have no faith in his ability to spend the available cap space and make prudent moves to  make us a contender.  We need an experienced proven GM to make the moves now. 
 

I highly doubt Cirelli is available.  He’s exactly what we need. 

Something has to give in TB.  They have 13 players under contract for next year for  73.5 million.  At the current cap that’s 8 mill for 9-10 players with Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli as RFAs to re-sign. 4 tradeable forwards - Palat, Gourde, Johnson and Killhorn all have full NTCs.  The only signed skaters without NTCs are Point and Kucherov and they aren’t trading them. 

I wouldn’t trade Cirelli either if I were them but to keep him and Sergachev (the higher priority) and complete the roster at least two of Palat, Johnson, Killorn and Gourde need to go but they have no reason to accept the trade.

Those facts likely make Cirelli available.  

[DarthEbriate]

40 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Lol.  I meant Reinhart.  That said anyone have a player replicating machine?

If only they had cloned Eichel instead of Jango Fett we wouldn't be in this ridiculous position.

[Weave]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

If only they had cloned Eichel instead of Jango Fett we wouldn't be in this ridiculous position.

What if they did but populated Tampa with all the clones?

No, Thats not right.  Clones can never hit what they’re shooting at.  Never mind.

[freester]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Something has to give in TB.  They have 13 players under contract for next year for  73.5 million.  At the current cap that’s 8 mill for 9-10 players with Sergachev, Cernak and Cirelli as RFAs to re-sign. 4 tradeable forwards - Palat, Gourde, Johnson and Killhorn all have full NTCs.  The only signed skaters without NTCs are Point and Kucherov and they aren’t trading them. 

I wouldn’t trade Cirelli either if I were them but to keep him and Sergachev (the higher priority) and complete the roster at least two of Palat, Johnson, Killorn and Gourde need to go but they have no reason to accept the trade.

Those facts likely make Cirelli available.  

Those are great points. What type of compensation would we have to give to get Cirelli?  Something tells me Zach Bogosian is not going to cut it. 

[Curt]

13 minutes ago, freester said:

Those are great points. What type of compensation would we have to give to get Cirelli?  Something tells me Zach Bogosian is not going to cut it. 

Young cheap players/picks would need to make up a large part of it.  Any prospect apart from Cozens.  1st round picks would be in play as well.

[freester]

1 minute ago, Curt said:

Young cheap players/picks would need to make up a large part of it.  Any prospect apart from Cozens.  1st round picks would be in play as well.

No way I’m giving up an unprotected number 1 this year. I could see moving Middlestadt or another prospect and taking a cap dump from Tampa.