Casey Mittlestadt has been sent to Amerks

[Doohicksie]

  On 2/10/2020 at 4:08 PM, SDS said:

Don't go there.

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Okay.  I said my piece, I'm done.

[Eleven]

  On 2/10/2020 at 4:08 PM, SDS said:

Don't go there.

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[TrueBlueGED]

  On 2/10/2020 at 2:17 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

LOL, no he wasn't.  He destroyed our farm system.  Made Roch into a joke and spent us into cap hell that Jbot is still digging out of.  TM is a Mike Milbury or Craig Button bad GM.  Jbot isn't even close to that bad.

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No matter how many times you say this, it's still not true. Tim Murray is responsible for 20% of the team's cap usage. Sure, Bogosian and Okposo are bad cap usage, but Murray clearly isn't why we have no cap space when 80% of the cap are contracts signed by Botterill. 

Edited February 10, 2020 by TrueBlueGED

[Randall Flagg]

  On 2/10/2020 at 7:08 PM, TrueBlueGED said:

No matter how many times you say this, it's still not true. Tim Murray is responsible for 20% of the team's cap usage. Sure, Bogosian and Okposo are bad cap usage, but Murray clearly isn't why we have no cap space when 80% of the cap are contracts signed by Botterill. 

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Don't you understand? That's 11 million dollars that could be going to more Frolik, Vesey, Sheary, Berglund, Sobotka, Wilson, Griffith, Pouliot, Josefson, and Nolans! We'd be sitting pretty if not for GMTM

[Stoner]

  On 2/10/2020 at 3:41 PM, Doohickie said:

I'm going to point the figure squarely at you and the admins for that.  A little bit of redirection goes a long way.  If, as soon as a tangent was identified the posts were moved to the correct thread (or a new thread was spawned), then this "catchall" topic on Casey would actually be useful.

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Revising the thread title, as Brawndo did, to reflect a "trending" discussion, is a good solution. I suggested it a while back, but it didn't catch on. It takes discipline on the part of the OP. Of course the moderators could do it as well.

[TrueBlueGED]

  On 2/10/2020 at 7:13 PM, Randall Flagg said:

Don't you understand? That's 11 million dollars that could be going to more Frolik, Vesey, Sheary, Berglund, Sobotka, Wilson, Griffith, Pouliot, Josefson, and Nolans! We'd be sitting pretty if not for GMTM

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Um. Sir. How dare you forget Dalton Smith? 

[nfreeman]

OK -- Wawrow/PLF/GMTM conspiracy theory posts have been moved to the new PLF thread.

[Doohicksie]

  On 2/11/2020 at 3:44 PM, nfreeman said:

OK -- Wawrow/PLF/GMTM conspiracy theory posts have been moved to the new PLF thread.

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[StuckinFL]

Any news on Casey's play?

[dudacek]

  On 2/26/2020 at 2:58 PM, StuckinFL said:

Any news on Casey's play?

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Lots of ice time, points and mistakes.

[Ogre]

  On 2/26/2020 at 2:58 PM, StuckinFL said:

Any news on Casey's play?

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It’s frustrating. He has a game where he appears to see the big picture and limits his mistakes only to follow it up with a game where he falls back into the habit of trying to do too much by himself. That game vs the Monsters he tried to drive the zone by himself and ran into a wall of white sweaters just inside the blue line. He was knocked down, lost the puck and the white wall of sweaters had a nice set up for a good rush the other direction. I’m starting to convince myself that his problems are with his eyes and his head. Is he not processing fast enough? Has he relied on skill so much to this point that his IQ has atrophied? I just can’t figure out what result he expects when he drives headlong into a group with no one to draw the extra guys off.

Edited February 26, 2020 by Ogre

[Doohicksie]

  On 2/26/2020 at 3:24 PM, Ogre said:

I just can’t figure out what result he expects when he drives headlong into a group with no one to draw the extra guys off.

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He's been watching Jack too much.  ?

[Zamboni]

To me, he looks like a inconsistent developing young player. Nothing too alarming IMO. If he’s making the same frequency of mistakes next season AND the following season, then I’ll start to have a little concern. My prediction is next season he’ll still make those mistakes, just less of them. And that’s due to developing and experience. At 21 ... there’s almost no chance he doesn’t develop and improve. Who the heck honestly thinks a 21 year old player won’t.

Edited February 26, 2020 by Zamboni

[Carmel Corn]

He will never develop into a legitimate top 6 forward.  Trade him during the summer as part of a package to get a legitimate 2C.

Unless the NHL goes to a permanent 3-on-3 format, his game will not adapt.

[LGR4GM]

  On 2/26/2020 at 3:24 PM, Ogre said:

It’s frustrating. He has a game where he appears to see the big picture and limits his mistakes only to follow it up with a game where he falls back into the habit of trying to do too much by himself. That game vs the Monsters he tried to drive the zone by himself and ran into a wall of white sweaters just inside the blue line. He was knocked down, lost the puck and the white wall of sweaters had a nice set up for a good rush the other direction. I’m starting to convince myself that his problems are with his eyes and his head. Is he not processing fast enough? Has he relied on skill so much to this point that his IQ has atrophied? I just can’t figure out what result he expects when he drives headlong into a group with no one to draw the extra guys off.

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Bingo. This is why I want him left in Rochester and maybe for all of next season as well. 

[LGR4GM]

Holy crap Casey is the worst forward in ES goal differential on that team? Yikes. I might seriously consider finding a trade partner for him this summer. I just mentioned Morgan Frost, maybe Mitts and a sweetner for Frost or something along those lines. 

[Randall Flagg]

  On 2/26/2020 at 5:40 PM, LGR4GM said:

Holy crap Casey is the worst forward in ES goal differential on that team? Yikes. I might seriously consider finding a trade partner for him this summer. I just mentioned Morgan Frost, maybe Mitts and a sweetner for Frost or something along those lines. 

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Don't you usually take issue with pi's TRPM? Because you're literally using exactly that right now hehe

[darksabre]

Casey is a player who I think has good hands but seems to lack the seasoning to play a two way game. I'm fine with him staying in Rochester until his game matures. 

[TrueBlueGED]

  On 2/26/2020 at 3:31 PM, Zamboni said:

To me, he looks like a inconsistent developing young player. Nothing too alarming IMO. If he’s making the same frequency of mistakes next season AND the following season, then I’ll start to have a little concern. My prediction is next season he’ll still make those mistakes, just less of them. And that’s due to developing and experience. At 21 ... there’s almost no chance he doesn’t develop and improve. Who the heck honestly thinks a 21 year old player won’t.

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Except a whole lot of 21 year olds don't improve to become NHLers. The majority don't. 

[dudacek]

Casey’s past of playing mostly against inferior competition shaped him into a player whose game is built around beating people one-on-one.

His future will largely depend on how well he develops his ability to create and prevent two-on-ones.

  On 2/26/2020 at 5:56 PM, TrueBlueGED said:

Except a whole lot of 21 year olds don't improve to become NHLers. The majority don't. 

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Fortunately, the majority picked in the top 10, however, do.

[nfreeman]

At this point, I feel the same way about Mitts that I felt about Nylander:  he has some skill but probably not enough skill, will or hockey IQ to be an effective top-6 NHL player, and we should adjust expectations, and roster plans, accordingly.

However, also like Nylander, he is young, not expensive and under team control for a while -- so there is no rush to make a decision on him.  If someone offers a Jokiharju-level asset for him, I would pull the trigger, and I wouldn't hesitate to include him in a package for Cirelli or other strong 2C candidate, but I wouldn't dump him for a lower-level asset.

In the meantime he should stay in Rochester and learn the game.

[TrueBlueGED]

  On 2/26/2020 at 6:03 PM, dudacek said:

Casey’s past of playing mostly against inferior competition shaped him into a player whose game is built around beating people one-on-one.

His future will largely depend on how well he develops his ability to create and prevent two-on-ones.

Fortunately, the majority picked in the top 10, however, do.

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I'm not sure that's accurate. After pick #3, the success rate is basically a coin flip. An article a few years back pegged picks 4-15 as equally likely to produce a half point per game NHLer, on average. And now that Casey is 3 years past his draft year, we can probably stop using his draft position as a good indicator of how he projects as a player. 

Substantively, I'm exactly where @nfreeman is at on Mittelstadt. And for the purposes of asset utilization, I think it's better to accept some risk and decide a year early on a player than a year late when the league has caught up. If I were GM I'd be actively looking to move him this offseason in a package, but I'm not dumping him for a 4th or anything like that. 

[dudacek]

  On 2/26/2020 at 6:29 PM, TrueBlueGED said:

I'm not sure that's accurate. 

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It is. It’s hard to define NHLer, but I’m using an arbitrary multiple seasons as an unquestioned regular.

2006 8/10 (the two misses played 297 and 394 games, respectively)

2007 8/10

2008 9/10

2009 9/10

2010 9/10

2011 10/10

2012 7/10

2013 10/10

2014 8/10 (Dal Colle and Fleury still might)

2015 10/10

[WildCard]

I feel like we're giving up on Casey way too early. We rushed him into the NHL, and now he needs a more seasoning as a result in the AHL. Give him a full year down there then let's see. 

[dudacek]

And I’m basically on the same page as @nfreeman in terms of what to do about him, even if I tend to be more bullish on his ability to turn things around.

The kid had close to 40 NHL points before he turned 21. That’s not something to be discounted.