GDT: Sabres at Flames, THURSDAY 12/05/19, 9:00 pm ET

[LGR4GM]

13 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

He has five goals in the last 19 games. He has no power play goals this season. You can defend his production, but you're relying on his hot 10-game start.

He who?

[Weave]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He who?

Skinner

[Stoner]

9 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Confession: I shut this game off at 4-1.

Justification: I have my last ever school assignment, after 19.5 straight years of them, to finish.

Counter: I'm still posting on Sabrespace rather than working on assignment

This post should scare anyone in charge of anything at the Sabres. There's a progression. Eventually posting will bore you. Anybody ever wonder if our friend qwk is still watching?

9 hours ago, Thorny said:

As if we let Lucic get his first goal as a flame against us... dammit. 

Sometimes you shake your head. Which hockey god did we piss off, exactly?

8 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Challenge - calculate the percentage of my hockey-related posts that have used analytics in the last calendar year. 

$500 that it's less than half of a percent. Dead serious. Make the bet so I can buy some Bills playoff tickets.

Phrased another way: I don't know what the hell you're talking about 

I might want a piece of this action, but only if "used" is changed to "relied on." Just about any post about Sobotka/roster deficiency relied on analytics, and that's a lot of posts.

8 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

What sucks balls is that if I put as many words into my paper tonight as I did into this GDT, I'd be done with schoolwork forever

 

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

He who?

Skinner.

[Radar]

5 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

I just think Botts is working different angles, looking at legit available top 6 like Hall and Gaudreau and also probably kicking tyres on middle six players.

The first two might be stalling the trades for anything else, but at one point he'll have to decide.

Like what do we have to trade that could fetch such a forward as we need? I'm thinking any player we have of such value we can't afford to trade. Frankly we have an abundance of mediocrity.

[miles]

12 minutes ago, Radar said:

Like what do we have to trade that could fetch such a forward as we need? I'm thinking any player we have of such value we can't afford to trade. Frankly we have an abundance of mediocrity.

Give up a 2020 #1 and a 21 #2 for gaudreau, and make them take okposo to help on the cap issue. 

They can get creative to get the player they need. I would be fine with losing a 1st and 2nd for elite player. Heck, if they wanted a minor league player too, I would be fine with that also.

Edited December 6, 2019 by miles

[Scottysabres]

1 minute ago, miles said:

Give up a 2020 #1 and a 21 #2 for gaudreau, and make them take okposo to help on the cap issue. 

They can get creative to get the player

Why on earth would Calgary take Okposo again?

[miles]

17 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

Why on earth would Calgary take Okposo again?

They wouldn't but I'm using that as example.

Also okposo is probably 1 hit away from being LTIRetiring 

Edited December 6, 2019 by miles

[Doohicksie]

3 hours ago, steveoath said:

Dear Santa,

Please can we have a new special teams coach?

Lots of love,

Sabres fans.

I wonder what David Legwand is doing these days.  He was pretty effective at the PK for us, I wonder if he's coaching?

[Doohicksie]

One last thought:  The Sabres did climb back into the game last night.  If Skins had buried that partial breakaway, who knows what happens.  The message I take from that, if I'm Krueger, is that when the Sabres work, they're good.  I stress that to the team.  Gap control, pressure, just like Calgary did to us.  If we'd done that the whole game, I think we would have won.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

He has five goals in the last 19 games. He has no power play goals this season. You can defend his production, but you're relying on his hot 10-game start.

This is what having an NHL goal scorer means. Goal scoring is incredibly prone to statistical variation, or in hockey terms, "having a hot stick" and then "gripping the stick too tight." Nobody is immune to it. He went through similar extremes last year, pacing for 60 goals for half a year, then going 24 games or so with just 1 or 2. It's what you sign up for when you have a player whose calling card is scoring goals. 

David Pastrnak hasn't slowed yet this year, but for example, last year he had 10 goals in his first 9 games, then 2 goals in 9 shortly after, finishing the season with 2 in the last 12. 

Matthews started last year with 10 goals in 6 games, ended with 3 in 11. Had a stretch of 13 games with just 1 goal, a different stretch of 6 in 5. 

Ovie last year: 17 goals in 14 games, followed by 1 in 10, and 4 in 16. 

Pat Kane: 11 in 11 to start the year, followed by 6 in 27. 

So it goes!

[Zamboni]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

This is what having an NHL goal scorer means. Goal scoring is incredibly prone to statistical variation, or in hockey terms, "having a hot stick" and then "gripping the stick too tight." Nobody is immune to it. He went through similar extremes last year, pacing for 60 goals for half a year, then going 24 games or so with just 1 or 2. It's what you sign up for when you have a player whose calling card is scoring goals. 

David Pastrnak hasn't slowed yet this year, but for example, last year he had 10 goals in his first 9 games, then 2 goals in 9 shortly after, finishing the season with 2 in the last 12. 

Matthews started last year with 10 goals in 6 games, ended with 3 in 11. Had a stretch of 13 games with just 1 goal, a different stretch of 6 in 5. 

Ovie last year: 17 goals in 14 games, followed by 1 in 10, and 4 in 16. 

Pat Kane: 11 in 11 to start the year, followed by 6 in 27. 

So it goes!

Exactly! Too many fans don’t take that mindset into consideration, 

It’s also why “on pace for” conversations are flat out dumb IMO. It almost never comes to fruition. 

how often do we read or hear “Player XYZ is on pace for 110 pointzzz!!”

fast forward to April and they end up with 78 points. ?

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

1.) This post should scare anyone in charge of anything at the Sabres. There's a progression. Eventually posting will bore you. Anybody ever wonder if our friend qwk is still watching?

Sometimes you shake your head. Which hockey god did we piss off, exactly?

2.) I might want a piece of this action, but only if "used" is changed to "relied on." Just about any post about Sobotka/roster deficiency relied on analytics, and that's a lot of posts.

 

Skinner.

1.) We're already well down the road of the Sabres sending me in a different direction. "Gain a reputation as an early riser and you can sleep til noon" describes my posting quality here lately

2.) This could not be further from the truth - analytics can create polarization for players like Risto, who most would agree is neither top pairing nor AHL quality, but Sobotka's game tape from last season speaks volumes all by itself. He was dreadful no matter what you were looking for - offensive effectiveness, defensive ability, amount of effort put into hockey games. It's why I was railing on him months before I allowed myself to take serious looks at analytics sites (January is okay to start). His offensive zone inabilities, magnified by his unearned ice time and contribution to the fact that it was the Sabres' #1 on-ice problem for much of the year, reached comical levels quickly. That the analytics pinned him as a bottom 3 skater at this stuff out of a set of 700+ only serves to emphasize the point, because hockey analytics are at their best when you're using them to find extremes among players. They're very good at this, even if they're not good at much else. For Vlad, any puck on his stick either skittered harmlessly wide at comically low speed, or was squeezed out of him along the boards. He was the most obviously offensively inept forward I've ever seen on the Sabres in a non-tank year, including Matt Ellis and David Legwand. It was evident before I ever looked at any stat. And I was saying it BEFORE it caused him to go on a streak of 43 games where he could only score one goal, that goal being a dribbler with 7 seconds left in a game we were down 4-1 with a goalie pulled. He wasn't close to scoring in those 43 games outside of that shining moment, and there was a reason for that, it wasn't a fluke he went that long despite being the 4th most used forward in that time (with less defensive tilt to his minutes than THREE other Sabres skaters who scored goals during that time, so you can't blame it on that) 

[miles]

I see the problem with the sabres as this, and if I'm wrong please correct me 

1. Sabres are offensively minded mostly, but dont score enough to cover their lack of defensive skills 

2. They dont have top line goaltenders that can save them when, the lack of defense or when big mistakes happen

3. The PK is atrocious. Defense again.

4. They seem to get down on themselves a little too quickly. This is not as obvious as in previous years though.

5. They dont have enough presence in front of the goal to wack in the rebounds. At the beginning of the season it seemed Samson was there all the time camped in front. Not too much lately 

They have been saying they have too much defense players, but really they dont have enough good defense players. Too many average defenders. Getting another top 6 scorer will help cover up that fact, but you wont win many games when you give up 4, which has happened too often lately 

Edited December 6, 2019 by miles

[Doohicksie]

3 and 4 are the key things, and the other thing is the lack of playing a full 60 minute game.  After a good first 10 or 15 minutes, the Sabres went to sleep until just a few minutes were left in the game.

[Stoner]

20 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

This is what having an NHL goal scorer means. Goal scoring is incredibly prone to statistical variation, or in hockey terms, "having a hot stick" and then "gripping the stick too tight." Nobody is immune to it. He went through similar extremes last year, pacing for 60 goals for half a year, then going 24 games or so with just 1 or 2. It's what you sign up for when you have a player whose calling card is scoring goals. 

David Pastrnak hasn't slowed yet this year, but for example, last year he had 10 goals in his first 9 games, then 2 goals in 9 shortly after, finishing the season with 2 in the last 12. 

Matthews started last year with 10 goals in 6 games, ended with 3 in 11. Had a stretch of 13 games with just 1 goal, a different stretch of 6 in 5. 

Ovie last year: 17 goals in 14 games, followed by 1 in 10, and 4 in 16. 

Pat Kane: 11 in 11 to start the year, followed by 6 in 27. 

So it goes!

Let's say a 40-goal scorer is held without a goal in the first round of the playoffs (say a seven-game series his team loses). Is he not open to fair criticism? Or is that a statistically acceptable period of time for an "NHL goal scorer" to be blanked? The Sabres have needed more from Skinner these past 20 games as their good start dissipated. They certainly needed more the second half of last season.

12 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

1.) We're already well down the road of the Sabres sending me in a different direction. "Gain a reputation as an early riser and you can sleep til noon" describes my posting quality here lately

2.) This could not be further from the truth - analytics can create polarization for players like Risto, who most would agree is neither top pairing nor AHL quality, but Sobotka's game tape from last season speaks volumes all by itself. He was dreadful no matter what you were looking for - offensive effectiveness, defensive ability, amount of effort put into hockey games. It's why I was railing on him months before I allowed myself to take serious looks at analytics sites (January is okay to start). His offensive zone inabilities, magnified by his unearned ice time and contribution to the fact that it was the Sabres' #1 on-ice problem for much of the year, reached comical levels quickly. That the analytics pinned him as a bottom 3 skater at this stuff out of a set of 700+ only serves to emphasize the point, because hockey analytics are at their best when you're using them to find extremes among players. They're very good at this, even if they're not good at much else. For Vlad, any puck on his stick either skittered harmlessly wide at comically low speed, or was squeezed out of him along the boards. He was the most obviously offensively inept forward I've ever seen on the Sabres in a non-tank year, including Matt Ellis and David Legwand. It was evident before I ever looked at any stat. And I was saying it BEFORE it caused him to go on a streak of 43 games where he could only score one goal, that goal being a dribbler with 7 seconds left in a game we were down 4-1 with a goalie pulled. He wasn't close to scoring in those 43 games outside of that shining moment, and there was a reason for that, it wasn't a fluke he went that long despite being the 4th most used forward in that time (with less defensive tilt to his minutes than THREE other Sabres skaters who scored goals during that time, so you can't blame it on that) 

RaKru recently bemoaned losing an "amazing" player who plays the game "the right way." That player? Well, you know who that player is.

Edited December 6, 2019 by PASabreFan

[miles]

^^

Skinner has been missing Johansson.  Shearry out long time too.They were out for a while and that's when the sabres collapsed 

Edited December 6, 2019 by miles

[Randall Flagg]

4 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Let's say a 40-goal scorer is held without a goal in the first round of the playoffs (say a seven-game series his team loses). Is he not open to fair criticism? Or is that a statistically acceptable period of time for an "NHL goal scorer" to be blanked? The Sabres have needed more from Skinner these past 20 games as their good start dissipated. They certainly needed more the second half of last season.

RaKru recently bemoaned losing an "amazing" player who plays the game "the right way." That player? Well, you know who that player is.

Phil said the same thing, which is why he used Vlad 4th most of any skater during the worst offensive season I've seen from a Sabre in a non-tank year. Does that appear to have convinced me that Vlad was actually good, contrary to my own eyes? No? Then why would Ralph saying that this year? And I've already said that Vlad is obviously not as bad this year as he was last year, though that improvement almost solely comes in the neutral and defensive zones. 

And he's open to criticism, but there is no player for which that won't happen at some point, unless he's an all-time legend like Ovechkin. You can be concerned or get mad about it, but you can also set your watch to it, so I don't find it useful to spend emotion when stretches like this happen, even if I'll acknowledge that it'd be nice if Skinner was scoring more. The 19 games you refer to are still at a >20 goal pace, which, if this is a down streak, we should be thankful for that haha. 

Like stretches like this will never NOT happen for goal scorers, so I just don't get a lot out of tapping my foot and waiting for it to end, I'm more concerned about the fact that we haven't built a roster to cover for the obvious fact that goal scoring is streaky 
 

[dudacek]

41 minutes ago, miles said:

I see the problem with the sabres as this, and if I'm wrong please correct me 

1. Sabres are offensively minded mostly, but dont score enough to cover their lack of defensive skills 

2. They dont have top line goaltenders that can save them when, the lack of defense or when big mistakes happen

3. The PK is atrocious. Defense again.

4. They seem to get down on themselves a little too quickly. This is not as obvious as in previous years though.

5. They dont have enough presence in front of the goal to wack in the rebounds. At the beginning of the season it seemed Samson was there all the time camped in front. Not too much lately 

They have been saying they have too much defense players, but really they dont have enough good defense players. Too many average defenders. Getting another top 6 scorer will help cover up that fact, but you wont win many games when you give up 4, which has happened too often lately 

I’m not correcting you at all, just offering my opinions in an interesting post.

1A) The Sabres have an underrated number of skilled forwards who can make slick plays and pick corners - score goal scorer’s goals. They have a paucity of the types of players with the mindset or skill set to score dirty goals: rebounds, net drives or deflections.

1B) The Sabres’ defensive woes are overrated. They are middle of the pack in goals against and last I looked they were about the same analytically. Their ability to exit the zone is much improved over last year and they give opponents fewer open looks. I agree with Ralph in that they have  tendency to fall back into bad habits at times. They are still mediocre, but they are better.

2) Our goalies are adequate, rarely the reason we win or lose. Which is a cause for concern going forward.

3) It is really bad. Goaltending is a small factor. A larger one is lack of puck pressure.

4) I think their ability to continue plugging in the face of adversary has been quite good this year. That’s not the same of overcoming that adversary, but it is a huge improvement and a compliment to the coaches.

5) If only Botterill could have swung the O’Reilly deal for Montreal’s pick and Brady Tkachuk.

 

[Radar]

1 hour ago, miles said:

Give up a 2020 #1 and a 21 #2 for gaudreau, and make them take okposo to help on the cap issue. 

They can get creative to get the player they need. I would be fine with losing a 1st and 2nd for elite player. Heck, if they wanted a minor league player too, I would be fine with that also.

Correct. I failed to say that the only option is to sacrifice high picks. The problem is are we in a place of team building where that even makes sense. This where Botterill is in a bit of a hard place in my opinion to an extent his own making  by one bad trade.

 

 

[dudacek]

46 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

 

RaKru recently bemoaned losing an "amazing" player who plays the game "the right way." That player? Well, you know who that player is.

Ralph’s certainly not above boosting a player in the media is a motivational tool.

[Radar]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m not correcting you at all, just offering my opinions in an interesting post.

1A) The Sabres have an underrated number of skilled forwards who can make slick plays and pick corners - score goal scorer’s goals. They have a paucity of the types of players with the mindset or skill set to score dirty goals: rebounds, net drives or deflections.

1B) The Sabres’ defensive woes are overrated. They are middle of the pack in goals against and last I looked they were about the same analytically. Their ability to exit the zone is much improved over last year and they give opponents fewer open looks. I agree with Ralph in that they have  tendency to fall back into bad habits at times. They are still mediocre, but they are better.

2) Our goalies are adequate, rarely the reason we win or lose. Which is a cause for concern going forward.

3) It is really bad. Goaltending is a small factor. A larger one is lack of puck pressure.

4) I think their ability to continue plugging in the face of adversary has been quite good this year. That’s not the same of overcoming that adversary, but it is a huge improvement and a compliment to the coaches.

5) If only Botterill could have swung the O’Reilly deal for Montreal’s pick and Brady Tkachuk.

 

I think I'm in agreement.

[miles]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’m not correcting you at all, just offering my opinions in an interesting post.

1A) The Sabres have an underrated number of skilled forwards who can make slick plays and pick corners - score goal scorer’s goals. They have a paucity of the types of players with the mindset or skill set to score dirty goals: rebounds, net drives or deflections.

1B) The Sabres’ defensive woes are overrated. They are middle of the pack in goals against and last I looked they were about the same analytically. Their ability to exit the zone is much improved over last year and they give opponents fewer open looks. I agree with Ralph in that they have  tendency to fall back into bad habits at times. They are still mediocre, but they are better.

2) Our goalies are adequate, rarely the reason we win or lose. Which is a cause for concern going forward.

3) It is really bad. Goaltending is a small factor. A larger one is lack of puck pressure.

4) I think their ability to continue plugging in the face of adversary has been quite good this year. That’s not the same of overcoming that adversary, but it is a huge improvement and a compliment to the coaches.

5) If only Botterill could have swung the O’Reilly deal for Montreal’s pick and Brady Tkachuk.

 

I agree with some of this, actually much of it. I watch the wild a lot too. Probably as much as the sabres. The wild focus on defense and forecheck primarily. the sabres defense compared to the wild is night and day.

I do think the sabres have great scorers. I really like Johansson and sheary, I also loved the larry line when they were all together. the problem though, they been giving up a lot of 4 goal games, whether it's defense or PK, or goaltending. It's hard to win when you give up so many. 

Edited December 6, 2019 by miles

[Randall Flagg]

Just checked, we haven't won 2 games in a row since October 22nd, or 19 games ago. ? 

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Just checked, we haven't won 2 games in a row since October 22nd, or 19 games ago. ? 

How many ties? ?

[Scottysabres]

6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Just checked, we haven't won 2 games in a row since October 22nd, or 19 games ago. ? 

"Consistency" ?