GDT: 11/19/19 Minnesota @ Buffalo, 7 p.m. EST

[Stoner]

Skinner has two goals in 11 games.

[Stoner]

6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

This is nonsense. My most sought after offseason names were Anthony Cirelli and Brett Connolly. Burakovsky was up there too. You can trade for and afford all of these guys just by not adding the dead cap we added two offseasons ago, and giving up stuff we gave up for Sheary, Vesey, and Montour/Miller, while not having to sit one of those guys every night. I'm not guaranteeing a team like this would be a good team, but we're not asking to go sign Bergeron and then trade for Huberdeau and Point. This team was not some inevitability that Eichel and co just can't pull their weight with to make good, it's been a car crash unfolding in real time, being called every step of the way.

We already have a first line capable of, over an entire season, getting a goal for/against ratio in line with playoff teams. Eichel with Skinner do this. They outscored their opponents enough in their time together last year for this distinction, even including all their minutes together when Skinner couldn't score and the team collapsed. The next step is getting things right behind them. We have made this incredibly hard on ourselves. We had a Selke caliber player ready to go, and dumped him for three bad players, 7 mil in cap that we were lucky to cut in half, and draft picks 3 years out. Now we're kind of re-stuck in a talent hole that was always going to be incredibly difficult to climb out of, which is why my first two courses of action this past summer, that I posted over and over about, were

a.) offer sheets
b.) relentlessly searching, not for a high paid stud, but for someone that hasn't had a chance to break out yet, because they'd be cheap. The caveat of this route is that you have to guess right about the player blossoming in a new, more prominent role. My pick was Anthony, but he was just an example. 

This was the only realistic way to bulking up our NHL talent to a mass comparable with other successful teams. Other lateral moves would leave us hurting the same way, just in different areas. 

There has been nobody more consistent about this picture of the team over the last three years than True or I, and we have not been unrealistic in its description or proposed solutions. We don't have the talent mass, whether Eichel can "lift" the team or not. It isn't there, and there isn't magic character dust that can add it. We were right that Krueger wasn't going to bring the dust. It's on Jason, and it's been on Jason for years. 

I hope you get your way next summer so we can have a good old-fashioned science experiment. If the team still isn't any better, you'll have to look at the top-end talent, which is not nearly consistent enough.

[Doohicksie]

[Tondas]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

Quick, let's arrange the deck chairs!!!

[Gatorman0519]

JBot failure began when he traded ROR and had a foolish plan to replace him.  He was a dead man walking as soon as he did that.  I said that as soon as it happened.  Mitts is reaching bust territory.  Instead of helping the offense, he trades non stop for defenseman.  JBot is clearly not the answer.  Expect RK to move into the FO, find a new GM and Coach next year.  Rinse repeat until you find something that works.

[Thorner]

15 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I hope you get your way next summer so we can have a good old-fashioned science experiment. If the team still isn't any better, you'll have to look at the top-end talent, which is not nearly consistent enough.

The good thing with putting that experiment into place is that, with several more good players added, that "top-end talent" will be a larger group, and therefore much more likely to find consistency, as a group, because of the depth of talent available to rely on. 

You just aren't going to be able to score 82 points in a season without a reasonable amount of consistency. Jack's already done it. 

We need a group of players all plugging each others holes. Ya, I said it. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

37 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

I hope you get your way next summer so we can have a good old-fashioned science experiment. If the team still isn't any better, you'll have to look at the top-end talent, which is not nearly consistent enough.

If we're doing science, can you define consistency, and show me how other stars have shown it, controlling for the strength of their own rosters? And how, controlling for those variables, ours are demonstrably worse?

Was Matthews more consistent during last year's successful Leafs campaign, when he went about 14 games without a goal, and played worse hockey in that stretch than I've ever seen from Jack? Nobody heard about it, because the Leafs team kept winning. 

Was MacKinnon's 4th year, in which the Avs finished with the worst ever record for a non-expansion team, more consistent under these parameters? Did his consistency also improve by having a team around him capable of taking the focus off of himself, rather than having Rodrigues, Lazar, and Gilmour on all the other lines combined, or the worst forward in the NHL at 2C for about 50 games last season? Or was it MacK himself pulling everyone up by his own bootstraps?

How does Tyler Seguin compare?

I'll give you that Jack is no McDavid, and he's no Crosby either. How about Stamkos? From what I've read of Lightning fans over the years, we don't really want Jack to be Stamkos. 

This is just the least compelling take in the world for me, honestly. Jack's last season with Skinner on any reasonably built team gets that team into the playoffs, end of story. Jack didn't even start to take off last year until the streak was well over - he, Jeff, and Sam went on an absolute tear during the 5 game losing streak after, taking it into January, and we lost every step of the way because of factors outside their control, factors that were so obviously going to be there from a lens before the season started, factors so obviously not fixed this offseason and rearing their heads right now. It's not about Jack's consistency. I mean look at this:

This is what Jack did starting as soon as the streak ended. This span lasted 31 days and ended when he got injured. This is pacing for the second highest scoring Sabre season ever. This is dragging his team on his back. You know what our record was in this stretch? We won FOUR of those 13 games. These are the games in which we watched our depth scoring put up astoundingly limited production, the likes of which is happening right now as well. You wanna see why I was so furious in those emails I was sending to you last Christmas time. That was ***** it. That team deserved help they were never going to get. You don't tell me that performance after that streak doesn't deserve a ***** shot.

Then after about 7 games where he was clearly not himself with that injury, he went on a stretch of 20 games with a 95 point pace, starting with that Calgary OT winner and ending in that crippling Edmonton game where he outplayed and outscored McDavid and softies in goal killed a 2 goal third period lead. The team won 7 of those 20 games. He was better in each of these stretches than when the team was winning (he only had TWO goals 25 games into the season!!) and it meant ***** all for the record because of everything happening around him. 

It doesn't hold up, man.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

In what looks like 6 of the last 10 games the Sabres have not scored a goal without Eichel on the ice. Talk to me about consistency. 

[Randall Flagg]

I fully expect this tirade to turn the Sabres into a 50 win team with every whipping boy leading the charge after a surprise Eichel trade for picks and prospects

[Curt]

34 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Skinner has two goals in 11 games.

Skinner has 8 goals in 21 games

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, Curt said:

Skinner has 8 goals in 21 games

Unsure of the underlying tone of your post, but 31 goals is pretty good, and that's his current pace. His pace per 82 before coming to Buffalo was 29. 

Skinner also falls into the "not an issue" category, to me. He's still what we traded for, a 30 goal scorer, who would score 40 with Jack. But they don't want him to do that anymore, because. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Thorny

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

Skinner has 8 goals in 21 games

Welcome to having a goal scoring specialist in the NHL

[PromoTheRobot]

Maybe we can speed up the change to Royal Blue?

[Curt]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Unsure of the underlying tone of your post, but 31 goals is pretty good, and that's his current pace. His pace per 82 before coming to Buffalo was 29. 

 

6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Welcome to having a goal scoring specialist in the NHL

My point was that it’s silly of PA to cherry pick stats, like 2 goals in his last 11, which honestly isn’t even alarming.  8 in 21 is just as true.

Players never perform at a nice steady, even point production.  It fluctuates based on dozens of factors.quality of competition, linemates, injuries, coaching tactics........

Jack, Sam and Jeff (and their 29 combined goals, out of teams’ 59 total goals, that’s half folks!) are not the reason that the team isn’t winning!  It’s because Mitts, Sheary, Larsson, Okposo, Girgensons, Sobotka, Rodrigues, Vesey have a combined 11 goals.  8 players, 137 total games played, 11 goals.

Jack, Jeff and Sam are the only 3 guys on this team who are scoring and anyone who says the team is losing because they aren’t doing enough needs to take a long hard look at the rest of the forwards.

[Zamboni]

Yep obvious cherry picking is obvious. 

[Stoner]

32 minutes ago, Curt said:

Skinner has 8 goals in 21 games

And the Sabres are barely out of the playoffs a quarter of the way into the season and it's already time for I told you so's, Krueger is no better than Housley, Botterill can't construct a lineup... Why? Some are clearly weighing the last 10 games more heavily than the first 10.

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

And the Sabres are barely out of the playoffs a quarter of the way into the season and it's already time for I told you so's, Krueger is no better than Housley, Botterill can't construct a lineup... Why? Some are clearly weighing the last 10 games more heavily than the first 10.

Haven’t posted much about Ralph, but re: Botterill, from my perspective it’s 2 seasons, and the last 10, vs the first 10 of this season. 

My narrative (bias is dangerous - when it’s not an admitted bias) is also informed by the fact that I am more readily able to put more stock in the recent losses than the early wins because I perceived Botterill’s offseason to be, while not without it’s bright spots, a failure relative to what the overwhelming consensus was in terms of the issues that needed to be addressed. 

Could still be wrong. They could turn it around. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Thorny

[Curt]

9 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

And the Sabres are barely out of the playoffs a quarter of the way into the season and it's already time for I told you so's, Krueger is no better than Housley, Botterill can't construct a lineup... Why? Some are clearly weighing the last 10 games more heavily than the first 10.

I honestly am not sure what you are getting at?  And what is has to do with Skinner?

Coming into the season, many were concerned about the forward depth and those concerns are looking to be warranted.  Coaching is still a bit of an open question I think.

[Randall Flagg]

Honestly, while I'm ***** at it. 

On a burn-the-tapes policy, Jason decided to enter a season as rookie GM with a rookie coach with the worst assembly of depth forwards a non-tanking Sabres team has ever had. Griffith, Nolan, Josefson, Moulson, Pouliot, Girgensons, Larsson, all at the same time at the beginning. Sam got his test at center, with Moulson on one side and Griffith on the other. We lost 7 of our first 8 games and never got closer to relevance than that. Despite the clear and desperate need for something, for anything, our lone in-season move as the months dragged on for these poor saps was a fifth rounder for Scott Wilson, who, along with Nick Baptiste and Justin Bailey and Evan Rodrigues, mixed in a bit to take some of the sad sacks out. We ditched Kane at the trade deadline, and determined that ROR's character was not in line with where the organization needed to get to. 

We entered season 2 and started hot, 17-6-2 through late November. But cracks were beginning to show - Our center spine was dangerously weak. Mitts obviously wasn't ready. No NHL team gave up more dangerous chances and generated fewer chances than we did during the span our streak took place, in which our goalies were both putting up Vezina caliber numbers. During the streak, a stretch of several weeks began in which the non Eichel-and-Larsson lines would play a combined 100 man games and contribute a total of one goal. This is why, despite Eichel pacing for 134 points for a four week stretch after the streak, we lost most of the games. by mid November, and certainly by mid December, many fans were desperate for a move to help the team out. it was stated publicly by the GM and ownership that the streak "wasn't who they were." They played their ***** off for December and January and February, to no avail - shoddy goaltending and general defeated malaise crept in, interviews longed for "finding what we had earlier in the year" but assured us they weren't giving up. A team that was capable of scoring 2 goals with less than 2 minutes left to tie, and then beat, Vancouver. A team that tied Montreal with less than 2 minutes left and beat them in OT, after trading blows all night long and besting them in OT in their barn a couple weeks prior. Last minute GWGs in another MTL game, along with minnesota. A furious 3rd  period comeback against Winnipeg. Same for Pittsburgh. Thrilling takedown of Boston, another 4 point night for the captain in doing so. Outplaying the cup champs twice, falling just short each time. This team, apparently, did not earn help. They were told to sit down and take their place, and so they did. An addition of one of ten NHL-capable defensemen they'd carry next season, at the trade deadline, 12 weeks too late, did little to help. 

Season 3: reversing course on Tage, not doing the same thing for Mitts, who looks like he should still be in college. Middling roster moves did nothing to bridge the relevant talent gap necessary, leaving to more fans already exasperated before the season began than I've ever seen. Two brilliant games, followed by a stunningly similar script from last season. 137 games, 11 goals from everyone outside of 5 guys, 2 of which have nothing special in the goals-scored department. Obvious inability to keep up with mediocre clubs, inability to create and manipulate offensive zone space against even the most porous defenses. No goals without a Jack contribution in 3 games, 6 of the last ten with zero goals while Jack wasn't on the ice. Is Jason going to sit and watch this team flounder for the third season in a row without a meaningful in-season addition? He could have fired coaches mid-season twice in two years with full justification and didn't. The cup winner last year was in last place in January and fired a coach and fixed the area of the ice that was holding them back. It's possible. You have to make in season moves when your team languishes, and you have to have talent to do it right. Otherwise you should not manage a club. At this point, this is not organizational patience. It's psychological torture, not for us fans, but for the players that get sent out there night after night with their 8th defenseman playing forward behind Lazar who's behind Rodrigues, asked the same questions in the locker room the last three years over and over, seeing what happens when one player says how he really feels, and what happens to him after he does so, along with the series wins experienced by Kane and Lehner. Just listen to the words of people who have recently played here, how they describe their new situations. This isn't an exercise in patience. It's useless time-wasting spirit breaking that is going to carry us into Jack's sixth season without coming within 15 points of a playoff spot (and never being closer than his first year). Jack Eichel is not cerebral. His game is built on strength and power in his legs, core, and ability to force feed skill by using them. This game is not guaranteed from Jack at age 33 for these reasons. This time being wasted is valuable. It relies on Casey Mittelstadt being an impact player, and the same thing for the lanky kid in the Yukon right now. It relies on a 19 year old in a position whose prime is usually around 26-30. This time frame doesn't work and never should have been attempted. It's going to break everyone involved, and has already broken the fans. 

***** or get off the pot, dude. It's beyond time. I believe tom webster. I believe something big was in the works. Make it ***** happen. Because this ain't it. Or please just leave, if you're not going to do that. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Randall Flagg

[SwampD]

Didn’t read it all.

Didn’t have to.

It was fantastic.

[Thorner]

7 minutes ago, Curt said:

I honestly am not sure what you are getting at?  And what is has to do with Skinner?

Coming into the season, many were concerned about the forward depth and those concerns are looking to be warranted.  Coaching is still a bit of an open question I think.

I can’t speak for @PASabreFan but that won’t stop me: Probably that we are extrapolating Skinner’s entire total over 82, yet not the Sabres point total, based on how much focus we are placing on the recent stretch. 

Skinner is a 31 goal scorer this year, so the Sabres are a 90 point team based on the same extrapolation. 

- - - 

It’s a fair point, I just struggle putting as much faith in the Sabres pulling that off considering recent results, whereas with Skinner, proof is in the pudding. 

Edited November 20, 2019 by Thorny

[MODO Hockey]

i guess we suck again. god this is really frustrating to wake up to

[Curt]

11 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I can’t speak for @PASabreFan but that won’t stop me: Probably that we are extrapolating Skinner’s entire total over 82, yet not the Sabres point total, based on how much focus we are placing on the recent stretch. 

Ah, ok, fair enough.

I don’t think Buffalo is going to sink to a bottom 3 finish or anything, and I’m not shocked by how they’ve performed this season. I’m not happy but I also don’t think it’s some revelation that this team will be lucky to make the playoffs.  I predicted 82-85 points before the season and I think I’ll stick with that for now.

Mostly I’m unhappy that in 3 straight games against bad teams, Buffalo scored only 6 goals, all of them the direct result of Eichel’s individual talent.  Can this team get some scoring please!

Edited November 20, 2019 by Curt

[Randall Flagg]

I didn't really think tonight would be the night I broke but why not, they broke everyone else too

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I didn't really think tonight would be the night I broke but why not, they broke everyone else too

Your post was great, and cathartic in some sense, if only to see it all laid out in one go. 

The one point I disagree with definitely (saying something, considering the length (at least on mobile)) was right at the end, and also in this quoted post: I don’t think the fan base is broken. To paraphrase Dumbledore: the fact we feel so much pain is proof that we are alive and whole. 

Maybe we are broken in the emo sense, but not in any real way. If the Sabres ever do figure it out, it’ll be that much sweeter.