Reinhart, sign him or trade him?

[dudacek]

24 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Here's a question:  the Sabres can sign Reino to an extension anytime now, innit?  Does the fact that we've heard zero about any contract talks mean anything, especially in light of recent trade rumors?  i.e. if there are no contract talks, does that mean it's more likely that the Sabres are dangling Reino in trade talks?

Until the Ellis leak this morning, we haven't heard ***** about *****.

No Reino, no Ullmark, no Olofsson, no Kahun, nothing but @sabresparaavida's nugget on Larsson/Girgs, and Freidman's eyebrow-raiser on Montour. No whispers on new scouts or analytics gurus, no assistant GMs or advisors.

Adams has had plenty of time to set the table for his free agents, and he should have. But remember that by the normal NHL business clock we're still in late April. Usual pattern is roughly flurry of trades at and leading up the draft (June), UFA frenzy (July), arbitration eligibles (late July, August), other RFAs, late trades, UFA scraps (September).

Also, Adams would probably be prudent to wait and see who might be getting non-qualified and bought out and added to the unrestricted free agent pool before he starts signing people. And I'm sure there are a lot of people tentative about signing too early given the ramifications of COVID-19. We will have both a flat cap, and the possibility of cash-flow-poor teams declining to spend to the cap.

As far as Reinhart goes, his will be kind of a benchmark contract — along with guys like Mantha and Domi — for good players coming off a bridge in this new economic world. I would imagine it will be a tough deal, regardless of whether he signs here or is traded.

Edited August 14, 2020 by dudacek

[Cal Naughton Jr]

I was at Dave and Adams last weekend checking out jerseys with my girlfriend. I was going to pick up an autographed Reinhart jersey until I noticed that the Eichel 15 jerseys were the same price. Then my girlfriend said to me “I like Reinhart better anyways”. It was a real awkward car ride home and I feel a distance between us now....

Edited August 14, 2020 by Cal Naughton Jr

[Drag0nDan]

he does some stuff well but... i dunno i don't see enough to say "DONT TRADE HIM"

[inkman]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Here's a question:  the Sabres can sign Reino to an extension anytime now, innit?  Does the fact that we've heard zero about any contract talks mean anything, especially in light of recent trade rumors?  i.e. if there are no contract talks, does that mean it's more likely that the Sabres are dangling Reino in trade talks?

What trade rumors?

[IKnowPhysics]

Irrational thoughts I harbor: Reinhart can never be traded because he is the result of Intentional Tank Season #1.  Eichel was Intentional Tank Season #2.  Dahlin was Unintentional Tank Season #3.  Imagine intentionally tanking an entire season, only to sell that player within a couple of years.  It's irrational attachment, but damned if it wouldn't piss of a lot of fans.

If the Sabres violated this precept and traded any of them, it would be Reinhart, because he's the weakest of the three.  And they would ask for the moon, especially as he is a legitimately productive player on the current roster, and verifiably not just because Jack.  They couldn't sell him for a package because the precept of the tank was to acquire elite -of-the-elite talent through the draft.  To sell him for several mediocre pieces, even first round draft picks outside the top three overall picks or "good" pieces, would be traitorous to the goal of the tank.  They would need a blockbuster one-for-one deal that brings back elite-of-the-elite talent that helps the team.

Logic time: BUT, if you trade your 1RW, who the ***** left on this roster plays 1RW?  Trading Sam endangers the one functioning elite-level element on this team- a competitive first line.  Do we just assume Jack elevates Dominik Kahun to a 1RW?  Risky AF.  The only way you logically sell Sam is if you're in a risk-accepting burn-it-all mentality to rearrange this team big time OR you're ok with getting pieces back.  I think they keep Sam or they go off the deep end.  It'll be fun either way.

Edited August 14, 2020 by IKnowPhysics

[Zamboni]

3 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Irrational thoughts I harbor: Reinhart can never be traded because he is the result of Intentional Tank Season #1.  Eichel was Intentional Tank Season #2.  Dahlin was Unintentional Tank Season #3.  Imagine intentionally tanking an entire season, only to sell that player within a couple of years.  It's irrational attachment, but damned if it wouldn't piss of a lot of fans.

I thought I was the only one that looks at it like this ?

 

 

That being said ... I would reluctantly trade Reinhart for a big overpayment that was a clear and obvious “win” for the Sabres.

[nfreeman]

55 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Irrational thoughts I harbor: Reinhart can never be traded because he is the result of Intentional Tank Season #1.  Eichel was Intentional Tank Season #2.  Dahlin was Unintentional Tank Season #3.  Imagine intentionally tanking an entire season, only to sell that player within a couple of years.  It's irrational attachment, but damned if it wouldn't piss of a lot of fans.

If the Sabres violated this precept and traded any of them, it would be Reinhart, because he's the weakest of the three.  And they would ask for the moon, especially as he is a legitimately productive player on the current roster, and verifiably not just because Jack.  They couldn't sell him for a package because the precept of the tank was to acquire elite -of-the-elite talent through the draft.  To sell him for several mediocre pieces, even first round draft picks outside the top three overall picks or "good" pieces, would be traitorous to the goal of the tank.  They would need a blockbuster one-for-one deal that brings back elite-of-the-elite talent that helps the team.

Logic time: BUT, if you trade your 1RW, who the ***** left on this roster plays 1RW?  Trading Sam endangers the one functioning elite-level element on this team- a competitive first line.  Do we just assume Jack elevates Dominik Kahun to a 1RW?  Risky AF.  The only way you logically sell Sam is if you're in a risk-accepting burn-it-all mentality to rearrange this team big time OR you're ok with getting pieces back.  I think they keep Sam or they go off the deep end.  It'll be fun either way.

But if Reino is the centerpiece of the proposed Calgary trade discussed in the other thread, the Sabres would be getting back two players that are better than he is.

[WildCard]

15 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

But if Reino is the centerpiece of the proposed Calgary trade discussed in the other thread, the Sabres would be getting back two players that are better than he is.

Eh idk about better than. Position(s) we need, sure. Have had a better best season, yeah. But going forwardit wouldn't shock me at all if Reinhart is the best of those 3

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

On 8/14/2020 at 11:55 AM, Zamboni said:

Article on Sam ...
 

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2020/8/14/21368323/buffalo-sabres-top-25-under-25-3-sam-reinhart

 

On 8/14/2020 at 3:34 PM, Zamboni said:

That being said ... I would reluctantly trade Reinhart for a big overpayment that was a clear and obvious “win” for the Sabres.

The article talks about a potential $8.8MM/8 year contract. The Sabres FO may feel they have to move him if that is his price, if they can get a favorable return.  Vogl mentioned a contract in the $6.5MM range a few weeks ago and that seems more inline with a flat cap.  I would think anything up to $7.25MM would be manageable.  

[dudacek]

That 8.8 was ridiculous even before COVID. No one will pay him that.
6.5 is where I’m at now.

[freester]

On 8/14/2020 at 4:22 PM, nfreeman said:

But if Reino is the centerpiece of the proposed Calgary trade discussed in the other thread, the Sabres would be getting back two players that are better than he is.

What proposed Calgary trade?

[IKnowPhysics]

On 8/14/2020 at 1:22 PM, nfreeman said:

But if Reino is the centerpiece of the proposed Calgary trade discussed in the other thread, the Sabres would be getting back two players that are better than he is.

More irrational thoughts:

When I see package-for-player deals, in order to be a fair deal, they simply cannot be even.  No matter what's involved, you have to understand and overaccount for the risk of failure.  On the single player side, if a player is healthy and is a proven high-level contributor, there's considerably low risk.  For usual package pieces, there tends to be a littany of reasons why individual pieces don't work out:

• A player with injury history may:
  • Get injured.
• A prospect may:
  • Get injured.
  • Not develop to their fullest potential.
  • Not fill changing team positional needs by the time they're NHL ready.
  • Get logjammed behind other players.
• A draft pick may:
  • Get injured.
  • Not develop to any level.
  • Not fill changing team positional needs by the time they're NHL ready.
  • Get logjammed behind other players.
  • Not sign with the team.

Each of those line items carries some percentage risk or probabilty of failure that's different for each player and situation.  If value-added return for sending a healthy proven player relies on every single piece being 100% to maximum potential, the chances of that trade working out fairly goes way down.  The chance that any given piece of a multiple piece package doesn't work is much, much higher than the healthy proven player.  Package deals must overcompensate for risk.

Trigger warning.

The O'Reilly trade is a fantastic example.  O'Reilly pushed the Blues over the edge to a Cup.  Buffalo needs all elements of Thompson, Sobotka, Berglund, 2019 1st (Ryan Johnson), and 2021 2nd to pan out in order for that trade to be considered remotely fair.  Thompson's at risk of not develping, Sobotka's injured and his role is in question, Berglund left the team, Ryan Johnson's too-early-to-tell, and the 2021 2nd is most obviously unknown.  More specifically, Thompson, Johnson, and 2021 are payment for future years of not having O'Reilly.  Sobotka and Berglund, both on the wrong side of 30, were supposed to make up for not having ROR in the years we waited for Thompson/Johnson/2021 to be NHL ready, and not only are they not doing that, it's not even close.  Each package piece has/d substantial chances of failure, and the probability that some number of elements didn't pan out, wrecking the return for one of Buffalo best assets, was extremely high.

So if I see a package proposal for Sam Reinhart, a player that was the result of all of this catastrophe (all of this happened between 2/2013 and 6/2014, leading into Reinhart's 2014 draft):

1. Ruff being fired the February before the season.
2. An offseason that saw trading away Regehr, Leopold, and Pominville with no replacements.
3. Ron Rolston being hired, then fired.
4. Darcy Regier being fired.
5. Tim Murray being hired.
6. Ted Nolan being hired.
7. Pat Lafontaine being hired then quitting.
8. Ryan Miller and Steve Ott traded.
9. Ryan Vinz.
10. John Scott-Phil Kessel lumberjack in preseason.
11. Cody Hodgson leading the team with 44 points.
12. Ville Leino scoring zero goals in 58GP.
13. Henrik Tallinder round two.
14. The team intentionally finishing 21-51-10.

...and has finished ranked in the following spots on the team in points, starting with his rookie year: 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, get traded for anything but a singularly good player, we best see immediate, healthy, proven return that is low risk and high reward.  Don't waste my next few years hanging hope of a return for one of the team's best players on a 2nd rounder in 2023.

[sabremike]

They are going to trade Sam and it will end up another ROR level disaster because this organization and it's rancid and inept ownership never learn from their own mistakes, they NEVER NEVER learn.

[Zamboni]

Yea I can see a multi year/6.5 - 7.25. But north of that, I have a hard time thinking the Sabres would agree to that.

[Thorner]

On 8/17/2020 at 11:03 AM, dudacek said:

That 8.8 was ridiculous even before COVID. No one will pay him that.
6.5 is where I’m at now.

[Gabrielor]

What a crew Murray put around rookie Eichel/Reinhart...

Evander Kane - aside from the bar incident, largely a good player and person here

Ryan O'Reilly - got super depressed being here, then got traded

Tyler Ennis - drafted by Buffalo; heard nothing good/bad from him since leaving

Matt Moulson - haven't found anything good/bad on his time in Buffalo

Jack Eichel - our captain / franchise player; signs of oreilly depression

Brian GIonta - from this area, has maintained ties

Jamie McGinn - short stay; heard nothing good/bad from him since leaving

Zemgus Girgensons - drafted by us, could leave, ufa

Sam Reinhart - very silent person; I'd bet mirrors oreilly/jack depression

Marcus Foligno - from buffalo, so hasn't badmouthed us since leaving

Johan Larsson - could leave, ufa

Nicholas Deslauriers - heard nothing good/bad from him since leaving

Josh Gorges - retired after us; haven't found anything good/bad on his time in Buffalo

Rasmus Ristolainen - has wanted to be traded for a while

Mike Weber - drafted by us, has maintained ties, largely beccause of connection to past era team

Mark Pysyk - heard nothing good/bad from him since leaving

Jake McCabe - here; leader; nothing bad to say

Cody Franson - heard nothing good/bad from him since leaving

Robin Lehner - has badmouthed time in Buffalo

Chad Johnson - has badmouthed time in Buffalo

David Legwand - short stay, retired

Zach Bogosian - indirectly has badmouthed time in Buffalo

Carlo Colaiacovo - short stay, retired

Cody McCormick - has maintained ties, largely beccause of connection to past era team

[Rasmus_]

On 8/17/2020 at 9:03 AM, dudacek said:

That 8.8 was ridiculous even before COVID. No one will pay him that.
6.5 is where I’m at now.

 

This is the right number for Sam, for 4-5 years. I don't think giving him 8 years is a smart idea.  If we're going to turn this around, stop giving 8 year contracts you regret.  

[DarthEbriate]

52 minutes ago, Gabrielor said:

What a crew Murray put around rookie Eichel/Reinhart...

Evander Kane - aside from the bar incident, largely a good player and person here

Ryan O'Reilly - got super depressed being here, then got traded

Tyler Ennis - drafted by Buffalo; heard nothing good/bad from him since leaving

Matt Moulson - haven't found anything good/bad on his time in Buffalo

Jack Eichel - our captain / franchise player; signs of oreilly depression

Brian GIonta - from this area, has maintained ties

Jamie McGinn - short stay; heard nothing good/bad from him since leaving

Zemgus Girgensons - drafted by us, could leave, ufa

Sam Reinhart - very silent person; I'd bet mirrors oreilly/jack depression

Marcus Foligno - from buffalo, so hasn't badmouthed us since leaving

Johan Larsson - could leave, ufa

Nicholas Deslauriers - heard nothing good/bad from him since leaving

Josh Gorges - retired after us; haven't found anything good/bad on his time in Buffalo

Rasmus Ristolainen - has wanted to be traded for a while

Mike Weber - drafted by us, has maintained ties, largely beccause of connection to past era team

Mark Pysyk - heard nothing good/bad from him since leaving

Jake McCabe - here; leader; nothing bad to say

Cody Franson - heard nothing good/bad from him since leaving

Robin Lehner - has badmouthed time in Buffalo

Chad Johnson - has badmouthed time in Buffalo

David Legwand - short stay, retired

Zach Bogosian - indirectly has badmouthed time in Buffalo

Carlo Colaiacovo - short stay, retired

Cody McCormick - has maintained ties, largely beccause of connection to past era team

I do have issues with that roster (namely: relying on a rookie 2C; relying on two rookies in Eichel/Reino in the top 6; playing Risto into the ground at 25min/game), but I have two contentions. First, the roster had absolutely been gutted to tank for the three previous seasons. This was a known rebuild and several pieces were transition-only (Franson, Colaicacovo). Second, that season remains our best season since the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season. Larry became Angry Larry that year and formed a solid 3rd with Foligno and Gionta (giving up the notion that he was a top 6 LW/C). The 4th line played its role.

I’m also not worried about any of those players badmouthing the organization after leaving at this point. They’d been through 2-3 GMs, 2-4 coaches, and constant churns instead of a structured rebuild. And they weren’t winning. Of course they resent losing time here, they want to win and play meaningful hockey. I’d be more worried if ROR and Risto weren’t depressed by their time here.

[PerreaultForever]

On 8/17/2020 at 8:52 AM, SHAAAUGHT!!! said:

 

The article talks about a potential $8.8MM/8 year contract. The Sabres FO may feel they have to move him if that is his price, if they can get a favorable return.  Vogl mentioned a contract in the $6.5MM range a few weeks ago and that seems more inline with a flat cap.  I would think anything up to $7.25MM would be manageable.  

That's a ridiculous number for a guy who has shown he can't drive a line without Eichel on it.    If you're talking about money like that why not an alternative. Sign Hall to that money to play with Eichel and Skinner as your top line. Then trade Sam, Risto and Montour in any number of combined or separate deals that net a true (preferrbly 2-way) 2C and some hard nosed 2 way player(s) and/or prospects and start a new era with a new look and a new attitude. 

The net result would be a better deeper team with roughly the same money spent. 

[Zamboni]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

That's a ridiculous number for a guy who has shown he can't drive a line without Eichel on it.    If you're talking about money like that why not an alternative. Sign Hall to that money to play with Eichel and Skinner as your top line. Then trade Sam, Risto and Montour in any number of combined or separate deals that net a true (preferrbly 2-way) 2C and some hard nosed 2 way player(s) and/or prospects and start a new era with a new look and a new attitude. 

The net result would be a better deeper team with roughly the same money spent. 

By your own biased analysis,  if you aren’t going to have a player that can drive his own line you wouldn’t give somebody that kind of money. So you would not put Hall on the same line as Eichel... right? You would have Hall drive his own line. So why are you putting Hall with Eichel? ?
And railing against that kind of number… Anybody who has a clear thinking mind about Reinhart knows he’s not getting 8.8. So it’s kind of a moot point isn’t it? That part of the article is way off base. And almost everyone knows it. 

Edited August 19, 2020 by Zamboni

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

That's a ridiculous number for a guy who has shown he can't drive a line without Eichel on it.    If you're talking about money like that why not an alternative. Sign Hall to that money to play with Eichel and Skinner as your top line. Then trade Sam, Risto and Montour in any number of combined or separate deals that net a true (preferrbly 2-way) 2C and some hard nosed 2 way player(s) and/or prospects and start a new era with a new look and a new attitude. 

The net result would be a better deeper team with roughly the same money spent. 

If Reino signs long-term for under $6.5MM AAV I will be extremely impressed with KA.  

And deals are great if other teams are willing to make them and you're based in a destination city.  More than half of the top 60 centers in the league have some sort of NTC/NMC.  Players get trade clauses put in their contracts because they are good (or had leverage at one point), so we can assume 50% of players that don't have trade clauses in their contracts aren't the type of players that are guaranteed to come in and crush the 2C role.  Which means the pool to select from will be limited by players without trade restrictions so getting an above average 2C will likely require a significant over-payment by the Sabres if it happens at all.

Not saying it can't/won't be done, but it's not easy either.  Add in a rookie GM and a losing team and it gets even tougher.  It's more likely we get natural 3C center that we hope will overachieve in a 2C role...

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, Zamboni said:

By your own biased analysis,  if you aren’t going to have a player that can drive his own line you wouldn’t give somebody that kind of money. So you would not put Hall on the same line as Eichel... right? You would have Hall drive his own line. So why are you putting Hall with Eichel? ?
And railing against that kind of number… Anybody who has a clear thinking mind about Reinhart knows he’s not getting 8.8. So it’s kind of a moot point isn’t it? That part of the article is way off base. And almost everyone knows it. 

The point I was trying to make is Reinhart is not a necessary part of the future. So plan 1, you pay him big dollars and big term like he apparently wants and your team is the same as it was OR you sign another guy who is a FA instead, adding to your team, and then you have a spare asset to trade for something else that makes the team better. The team ends up with more. 

As for him not getting that money who knows. Nobody in the hockey world thought Eichel would get the money he got at the time he got it (although now it seems good) and definitely everybody outside Buffalo thought Skinner got way too much so with this team who knows what they'll do. 

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, SHAAAUGHT!!! said:

If Reino signs long-term for under $6.5MM AAV I will be extremely impressed with KA.  

For me to be impressed the deal has to be LESS than what Kyle Connor got (ava 7.14m) because he's not as good as Kyle Connor. 

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

The point I was trying to make is Reinhart is not a necessary part of the future. So plan 1, you pay him big dollars and big term like he apparently wants and your team is the same as it was OR you sign another guy who is a FA instead, adding to your team, and then you have a spare asset to trade for something else that makes the team better. The team ends up with more. 

As for him not getting that money who knows. Nobody in the hockey world thought Eichel would get the money he got at the time he got it (although now it seems good) and definitely everybody outside Buffalo thought Skinner got way too much so with this team who knows what they'll do. 

Basically everyone thought Eichel would get that money. It was almost EXACTLY what we thought he would get and some thought as high as 11mil. 

As for this, you logically flawed here. Hall will cost more than Reinhart in terms of dollars and dollars are cap. You may get more of a player but you get less in terms of money to spend so it somewhat offsets. Everything you do in hockey is a zero sum game, doing X cost Y and gives you Z so let's talk about your scenario further.

The Sabres have some cap room. Let's guess you can sign Reinhart for 6.75 and Hall is 8.75 (personally I think 9 is the number but whatever). So the question is, is hall worth 2mil more than Reinhart (yea probably) and what does that do to other aspects of your team because if I trade Reinhart now, I have to account in the trade for not having that extra 2mil on top of the return. So you could end up with "more" but only if you end up with less somewhere else. 

Finally, Reinhart is the ONLY top 6 RW on the team and there is only 1 possible middle 6 rw in the system (cozens is a center) so keep that in mind as well. 

[IKnowPhysics]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Everything you do in hockey is a zero sum game, doing X cost Y and gives you Z so let's talk about your scenario further.

...So you could end up with "more" but only if you end up with less somewhere else. 

We should start a 2020-21 cap thread to look at the big picture.  It'll help weigh how much cap room we have in different UFA/RFA scenarios and inform threads like this and threads weighing whether we resign Simmonds, Girgensens, Vesey, Larsson, Sobotka, and Hunwick, etc.