Reinhart, sign him or trade him?

[Scottysabres]

8 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I thought he was good yesterday, but most of this stretch he has not been.

You should be happy. He's inching closer to a $6 million cap hit  with every scoreless game.

Here's something that hasn't been tossed around much: does Reinhart even want a long-term deal? Maybe he has no desire to stay in Buffalo longer than he has to. He's really not talked about his long-term plans at all, to the best of my knowledge. Some of you seem to think he's just putting in time.

There's an argument to be made that he is is best off signing a short-term deal or taking whatever an arbitrator awards this summer — setting himself up for a situation like what happened to his buddy Evander two years from now.

So 6 - 6.5 for 3 yrs? Is his UFA yr in 1 or 2 more yrs?

[LGR4GM]

37 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

last 8 games

0g, 0a, -9

I thought he had a really good game @PIT back 2 weeks ago, then he disappeared.   

He's now on pace for <60 points this season.

 

I love how you use +/- but in another thread mention keeping Risto. 

[dudacek]

8 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

So 6 - 6.5 for 3 yrs? Is his UFA yr in 1 or 2 more yrs?

Two years to UFA. And the Sabres would be foolish to agree to a three year deal for that much. They'd only be paying for one UFA year.

If Sam wants term he'll start with an ask of 8 years at 7-plus and the Sabres will respond with 6 for 6.

If Sam isn't interested in term, it will likely be decided with a relatively cheap one year deal and Sam will sign his next contract with another team after being traded at or before the 2021 draft.

[Zamboni]

Yawn. Snapshot in time. Let’s forget about the overall history since he’s been in the league. Snapshots in time are such a tired strawman. 
Those that do that probably also sold off their stocks and mutual funds in the past two weeks. After all it’s so important to focus on short term results and react. Amirite?

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Two years to UFA. And the Sabres would be foolish to agree to a three year deal for that much. They'd only be paying for one UFA year.

If Sam wants term he'll start with an ask of 8 years at 7-plus and the Sabres will respond with 6 for 6.

If Sam isn't interested in term, it will likely be decided with a relatively cheap one year deal and Sam will sign his next contract with another team after being traded at or before the 2021 draft.

I can see this happening if it's a new GM, or J.B. returning for one more year.  If it's a new GM, he (or she - cannot have the presumption of bias pervading my post) gets a free look for one year before committing anything long term, or trade as you suggest.  And if Terry is on the fence about JB does he really allow/approve an 8 year extension?  

[pi2000]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I love how you use +/- but in another thread mention keeping Risto. 

Risto drastically improved his +/- this year... More importantly he has a positive TRpm for the first time in his career.

Reinhart, sadly, has the second worst TRpm on the team.

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

Yawn. Snapshot in time. Let’s forget about the overall history since he’s been in the league. Snapshots in time are such a tired strawman. 
Those that do that probably also sold off their stocks and mutual funds in the past two weeks. After all it’s so important to focus on short term results and react. Amirite?

It's not a snapshot, it's his last 8 games, important games to the franchise and his financial future.   

He has every reason to leave it all out on the ice, but sadly, not only has he vanished from the score sheet, I'd argue he's become a liability.

[LGR4GM]

10 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Risto drastically improved his +/- this year... More importantly he has a positive TRpm for the first time in his career.

Reinhart, sadly, has the second worst TRpm on the team.

 

10 hours ago, pi2000 said:

It's not a snapshot, it's his last 8 games, important games to the franchise and his financial future.   

He has every reason to leave it all out on the ice, but sadly, not only has he vanished from the score sheet, I'd argue he's become a liability.

So 7 years of Risto being bad is ignored but 8 games of Reinhart being bad is prime example of why we need to toss him out. I have found the definition of recency bias. 

[Doohicksie]

On 3/10/2020 at 9:04 PM, pi2000 said:

More importantly he has a positive TRpm for the first time in his career.

More important to you maybe....

[dudacek]

Resurrecting another dormant thread because this is one of the most interesting situations of the off-season.

From the Buffalo News, an interesting group of peers:

https://buffalonews.com/2020/06/10/buffalo-sabres-sam-reinhart-jason-botterill-nhl-analysis-2020/

Since the start of the 2017-18 season, Reinhart's 165 points are 65th among all NHL forwards — more than Nashville's Filip Forsberg, Vancouver's Bo Horvat, San Jose's Evander Kane and Winnipeg's Nikolaj Ehlers.

Reinhart's 44 goals at 5 on 5 during that span rank 55th — better than Detroit's Dylan Larkin, Vancouver's Brock Boeser, Colorado's Nazem Kadri and the New York Islanders' Mathew Barzal. Over the past two seasons, Reinhart's 115 points rank 57th among NHL forwards.

[WildCard]

We're gonna trade him for Andrew Shaw because Botterill

[Marvin]

What is the 60th highest salary for forwards?

[DarthEbriate]

49 minutes ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

What is the 60th highest salary for forwards?

Per CapFriendly, it's Zetterberg at 6.083M cap hit. In the area are Larkin, Marchand, Turris, and Taylor Hall. All slightly older contracts. Hall will net a significant raise this offseason, depending on the cap implications of the recession. And then Filip Forsberg and William Karlsson, right at 6M and 5.9M respectively, at similar Pt/Gm.

  https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit/all/forwards&p=2

[nfreeman]

If they get Reino to re-sign at $6MM to $6.5MM x 7 years or so, I think the much-criticized bridge deal JB gave him will be vindicated.

[dudacek]

30 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

If they get Reino to re-sign at $6MM to $6.5MM x 7 years or so, I think the much-criticized bridge deal JB gave him will be vindicated.

Yep. And the pandemic may have made it possible. 
But I need to see Sam wants to stay here. As his agent, I can see a good argument that it’s in his best interest to not commit long-term, at least not until next summer.

Semi-related, after watching Last Dance, I can see a lower-case comparison to be made for Jack and Sam with Jordan and Pippen, in terms of Sam being a “facilitator” not a game-breaker, and the difficulty top dogs like Micheal and Jack sometimes have playing with lesser pieces - they need to play with guys they trust, and they have no difficulty making it known.

We tend to forget the human dynamics that make up a team and treat it like a video game. I’d say there is a good chance Sam and Jack are joined at the hip because it’s what Jack demands. I wonder what kind of relationship Casey and Dahlin have with Jack. 

And watching Phil Jackson makes me happy there’s a guy like Krueger steering that room.

Edited June 11, 2020 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Yep. And the pandemic may have made it possible. 
But I need to see Sam wants to stay here. As his agent, I can see a good argument that it’s in his best interest to not commit long-term, at least not until next summer.

Semi-related, after watching Last Dance, I can see a lower-case comparison to be made for Jack and Sam with Jordan and Pippen, in terms of Sam being a “facilitator” not a game-breaker, and the difficulty top dogs like Micheal and Jack sometimes have playing with lesser pieces - they need to play with guys they trust, and they have no difficulty making it known.

We tend to forget the human dynamics that make up a team and treat it like a video game. I’d say there is a good chance Sam and Jack are joined at the hip because it’s what Jack demands. I wonder what kind of relationship Casey and Dahlin have with Jack. 

And watching Phil Jackson makes me happy there’s a guy like Krueger steering that room.

Interesting.  I can certainly see Eichel insisting on Reino being on his line -- and similarly, I think a major cause of Skinner's tailspin last year was him being unhappy about being removed from Jack's line.

I wouldn't expect Mitts to have much of a relationship with Jack -- I don't think Eichel has time or interest in underperforming possible busts.  I am curious about Dahlin though.

And while I would love to be as confident in RK as I was in Phil Jackson, I think he needed to handle Skinner differently from the way he handled him last year.

[Zamboni]

What forwards have ...

1. signed a contract within the last 18 months.

2. Is within two years of age, of Reinhart. (A 5 year swing).

3. Is within 40 points over the course of the last three years of what Reinhart has produced.

4. Have played as a top six forward for all those three years.

 

Those are the players contracts you look when determining what ballpark Sam will most likely receive.

Without doing the research, and taking into consideration salary cap percentage and increases,  I would guess 6.25-7.00 mil/per is fair market value.

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

What forwards have ...

1. signed a contract within the last 18 months.

2. Is within two years of age, of Reinhart. (A 5 year swing).

3. Is within 40 points over the course of the last three years of what Reinhart has produced.

4. Have played as a top six forward for all those three years.

 

Those are the players contracts you look when determining what ballpark Sam will most likely receive.

Without doing the research, and taking into consideration salary cap percentage and increases,  I would guess 6.25-7.00 mil/per is fair market value.

I’ve done some of the research and think you are very much in the ballpark. It’s hard to say how COVID will affect the market, but I tend to think it’s not going to have a huge impact on young core RFAs signing long-term. William Nylander is one of your better comparables, IMO.

[dudacek]

38 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Interesting.  I can certainly see Eichel insisting on Reino being on his line -- and similarly, I think a major cause of Skinner's tailspin last year was him being unhappy about being removed from Jack's line.

I wouldn't expect Mitts to have much of a relationship with Jack -- I don't think Eichel has time or interest in underperforming possible busts.  I am curious about Dahlin though.

And while I would love to be as confident in RK as I was in Phil Jackson, I think he needed to handle Skinner differently from the way he handled him last year.

You saw the way Jordan targeted young teammates like Scott Burrell and Steve Kerr? With all the recent focus on accountability in the locker room and not worrying about hurting people’s feelings, I think Jack might have a lot of interest in underperforming young talents. It’s his patience I wonder about, and his effect on development. 
 

I also wonder if Jack wants Skinner on his line?

Edited June 11, 2020 by dudacek

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’ve done some of the research and think you are very much in the ballpark. It’s hard to say how COVID will affect the market, but I tend to think it’s not going to have a huge impact on young core RFAs signing long-term. William Nylander is one of your better comparables, IMO.

I'm not so good at crunching the numbers, so I admit better researchers will have better results. As I'm looking at pts/game (Reino is at 0.63) and consistent 20 goals, but not a ton of points and "big/skewing years". The comparable guys I'm finding are Konecny, Teravainen, Keller, and Ehlers.

Keller is the outlier -- he got 8x$7.1M! It kicks in next year. That's how Reino wants to get paid. But, Keller is also up at .68 pts/game. And Arizona had to pay him.

More realistically, Reino is like Konecny, Teravainen, and Ehlers. Super-solid top 6 players going into their prime, but not the next level up W. Nylander, K. Connor.

Those other three are:  Konecny 6x$5.5M. Teravainen 5x$5.4M. Ehlers 7x$6M. I've got to think somewhere near 6x$6M would be a good target. 5x5.5 up to 7x6.5, or go short-term and renegotiate if/when we come out of a COVID recession.

[dudacek]

Reinhart and Nylander were drafted in the same year.

Sam’s career numbers are 109 goals, 255 points, Willie’s 86, 221. Sam has effectively played one more year.

Sam’s career highs are 25 and 65, Willie’s 31 and 61. They both play W with studs. Pretty hard for Botterill to argue Willie is a step above, IMO.

EHLERS and Konecny are similar players, but they each signed long-term deals on their second contracts, instead of The bridge contract Sam signed. (Nylander did too) Sam’s contract will likely reflect the ~ $2 million hit he took the past two seasons compared to them and the UFA years he’s giving up if he signs for term.

Connor also skipped the bridge deal, but is a step above.To me his deal represents Sam’s ceiling. Dylan Larkin is another one with very similar numbers and pedigree to Sam, although he is a centre, and signed a weird deal that lets him become a UFA very early.

Other guys to watch are Max Domi and Anthony Mantha who are of a similar tier, and like Sam are pending RFAs who took bridge deals two years ago

[dudacek]

Teravainen is one I hadn’t looked at, and You have to love from a team-friendly side.

It was his 3rd deal and he was coming off 2 better years statistically than Sam just did. Great work by the Canes on that contract, not so great by Teuvo’s agent.

Edited June 11, 2020 by dudacek

[Sabres Fan in NS]

EHLERS!!

?

 

*bring him to me JBOT and all is forgiven

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Reinhart and Nylander were drafted in the same year.

Sam’s career numbers are 109 goals, 255 points, Willie’s 86, 221. Sam has effectively played one more year.

Sam’s career highs are 25 and 65, Willie’s 31 and 61. They both play W with studs. Pretty hard for Botterill to argue Willie is a step above, IMO.

My step-up/leveling is admittedly #FancyEbriateStats based solely on Sam's .63 Pts/G vs. Nylander's .72 Pts/G.   ;-]

But when I look a Nylander in a little more detail, I think I'd argue he should have even better production numbers, and is probably a touch overpaid for his play (which would mean Sam should also not get up that high in salary). Nylander's RFA-unsigned/holdout year resulted in a 7/20/27 season in 57 games played, which is way off his averages. He also played a full minute less per game and had dismal PP numbers compared to his normal production. His Pts/G and overall points should really be higher. Reinhart might "disappear" for games at a time, but at the end of the year his numbers are close year-in and year-out. Nylander has a definite low season.

I'm starting to really think 6.5M has to be the ceiling, and like you say, hopefully we get a Teravainen-style deal. That would allow more flexibility for a 2C. And Dahlin.

[dudacek]

Sam’s agent is going to counter that he shows up for every season and every game, unlike Nylander: peak p/g isn’t the be-all, his reliability means something.
And you have to factor the RFA vs UFA question. Sam is going to (correctly) argue the Sabres got a discount the past two years, which he took in good faith, betting he would prove he’s a legitimate first liner.

Its an interesting one, and the term matters, along with the inflation tied to it.$7 million per is certainly not an unreasonable ask for 7 years. I’m not sure you’d could even get him for 4 years at $6 million. He could probably get near that for a year in arbitration, and I’m sure the Sabres would want to avoid arbitration at all costs.

But the 8.7 (I think) Yerdon projected over a max term looks ridiculous to me.

Edited June 11, 2020 by dudacek