Reinhart, sign him or trade him?

[Ducky]

3 hours ago, nfreeman said:

This isn't really a clear answer to my question.

Just to be clear:  if someone offered, say, the 23rd pick in the 1st round this year plus a 3rd-rounder for Reino, would you say yes?

I think Chevy wold be all over that one.

Send him with Mittlestadt to the Jets for Ehlers?

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, Ducky said:

I think Chevy wold be all over that one.

Send him with Mittlestadt to the Jets for Ehlers?

You know that Sam’s Career stats and EHLERS are virtually identical, right?

Would you do EHLERS and a Roslovic for Reinhart? Because Roslovic and Mittelstadt’s numbers are pretty similar too.

[PerreaultForever]

54 minutes ago, Ducky said:

Send him with Mittlestadt to the Jets for Ehlers?

I would do this but I don't think the Jets would.

37 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Would you do EHLERS and a Roslovic for Reinhart? 

I definitely would do that but am sure Winnipeg definitely would not. 

[Ducky]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

You know that Sam’s Career stats and EHLERS are virtually identical, right?

Would you do EHLERS and a Roslovic for Reinhart? Because Roslovic and Mittelstadt’s numbers are pretty similar too.

Ehlers can skate backwards faster than Sam forwards and gets O zone with ease. He is signed for 5 more seasons after this one at 6m per. Haven't seen him play much but from what I read on here, Ehlers' D game is better as well.

I would trade Roslo for Mittelstadt though.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Ducky

[triumph_communes]

11 hours ago, dudacek said:

You know that Sam’s Career stats and EHLERS are virtually identical, right?

Would you do EHLERS and a Roslovic for Reinhart? Because Roslovic and Mittelstadt’s numbers are pretty similar too.

Yes

[pi2000]

36 minutes ago, Ducky said:

Ehlers can skate backwards faster than Sam forwards and gets O zone with ease. He is signed for 5 more seasons after this one at 6m per. Haven't seen him play much but from what I read on here, Ehlers' D game is better as well.

I would trade Roslo for Mittelstadt though.

Would Sam do this?

 

[sweetlou]

Never been a huge fan of Sam's game but I get disappointed more and more each game.  He's has good hockey IQ and can see the game well, suits well for the slower AHL/Jrs where he dominated. I just don't feel he will be able to be a force without riding Jack's coat tail.  He does not have good speed, can't create any offense on his own, does not play the body and plays poor in the defensive zone.  The only way I would sign him if I were a GM would be for my 2nd line RW at $5.5-$6 million and only expect 55-65 points each year.

Like someone else stated earlier.  I don't want the Sabres core of "big money contracts" for the next 5 years to consist of Jack, Skinner, Sam, and Dahlin.  I believe the obvious one to be moved and try some new blood in the dressing room would Sam.

Sweetlou special:

Trade idea... Reinhart and Miller to Calgary for Lindholm and Bennett?  Who says no, or is this fair value?

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, sweetlou said:

Never been a huge fan of Sam's game but I get disappointed more and more each game.  He's has good hockey IQ and can see the game well, suits well for the slower AHL/Jrs where he dominated. I just don't feel he will be able to be a force without riding Jack's coat tail.  He does not have good speed, can't create any offense on his own, does not play the body and plays poor in the defensive zone.  The only way I would sign him if I were a GM would be for my 2nd line RW at $5.5-$6 million and only expect 55-65 points each year.

Like someone else stated earlier.  I don't want the Sabres core of "big money contracts" for the next 5 years to consist of Jack, Skinner, Sam, and Dahlin.  I believe the obvious one to be moved and try some new blood in the dressing room would Sam.

Sweetlou special:

Trade idea... Reinhart and Miller to Calgary for Lindholm and Bennett?  Who says no, or is this fair value?

***** no. We are overpaying. Bennet is a 3rd liner at best. 

[Curt]

38 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

***** no. We are overpaying. Bennet is a 3rd liner at best. 

Wait, what?  Lindholm and Bennet for Reinhart and Miller.  Isn’t Lindholm better than Reinhart?  Isn’t he the C the team needs?  Isn’t a C more valuable than a wing?  Isn’t Lindholm on a cheap contract with term?

I would make that trade.  It would be a great deal for Buffalo.  I think Calgary says no way.  

[sweetlou]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Wait, what?  Lindholm and Bennet for Reinhart and Miller.  Isn’t Lindholm better than Reinhart?  Isn’t he the C the team needs?  Isn’t a C more valuable than a wing?  Isn’t Lindholm on a cheap contract with term?

I would make that trade.  It would be a great deal for Buffalo.  I think Calgary says no way.  

I think Calgary will disappoint again this year and look to make changes as well.  I think Sam and Lindholm are pretty similar players, Lindholm plays center which is why I would rather have him, and also on a better contract than what Reinhart will probably demand. Miller would fill in as a 2nd pair when they lose Brodie to UFA this summer. Bennett would be a 3rd liner with Buffalo but adds the edge this team needs.

 In fact I would even throw in a 2021 2nd rd pick or Casey Mitts.

 

 

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Wait, what?  Lindholm and Bennet for Reinhart and Miller.  Isn’t Lindholm better than Reinhart?  Isn’t he the C the team needs?  Isn’t a C more valuable than a wing?  Isn’t Lindholm on a cheap contract with term?

I would make that trade.  It would be a great deal for Buffalo.  I think Calgary says no way.  

It always depends on how the teams involve rank the players involved, but I think generally speaking, this is a ballpark value hockey trade that might work if it addresses areas of need for Calgary the same way it does for Buffalo.

[Tondas]

I like Sam but if we can get a legitimate 2C for him, I'm good with that.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

Wait, what?  Lindholm and Bennet for Reinhart and Miller.  Isn’t Lindholm better than Reinhart?  Isn’t he the C the team needs?  Isn’t a C more valuable than a wing?  Isn’t Lindholm on a cheap contract with term?

I would make that trade.  It would be a great deal for Buffalo.  I think Calgary says no way.  

Your are giving up your best RW and your 2nd best RHD for basically just the center. If it was Reinhart and Miller, I want something better than Bennett. He's the issue with this trade which will never happen. 

[Doohicksie]

On 3/3/2020 at 10:16 AM, pi2000 said:

3rd worst TRpm (-11) on the team

That stat means nothing to me.  I understand it.  I just don't agree it tells the story you think it does.

[pi2000]

56 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

That stat means nothing to me.  I understand it.  I just don't agree it tells the story you think it does.

You don't understand it.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Your are giving up your best RW and your 2nd best RHD for basically just the center. If it was Reinhart and Miller, I want something better than Bennett. He's the issue with this trade which will never happen. 

I guess it depends on how you value Miller then.  

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, pi2000 said:

You don't understand it.

I understand it.  It doesn't pass the eye test.

[pi2000]

10 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I understand it.  It doesn't pass the eye test.

pi2000@sfo-lvswy:~$ estoi_trpm.py BUF
==============================================================
BUF even strength goal differential through 67 games = -4
BUF even strength minutes played through 67 games = 3436.92
TRpm(team relative +/-) is the diff btwn actual+/- and exp+/-
exp+/- is a function of %min played at ES and team ES goal diff
%min is % of ES minutes played
==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP    +/-  exp+/-  %min
BUF Brandon Montour           17.06    52    16   -1.06   26.5
BUF Jimmy Vesey               12.91    63    12   -0.91   22.9
BUF Johan Larsson             11.89    60    11   -0.89   22.2
BUF Jack Eichel                7.38    66     6   -1.38   34.6
BUF Zemgus Girgensons          2.90    67     2   -0.90   22.4
BUF Rasmus Ristolainen         2.41    67     1   -1.41   35.3
BUF Kyle Okposo               -0.30    50    -1   -0.70   17.4
BUF Curtis Lazar              -1.58    36    -2   -0.42   10.6
BUF Michael Frolik            -1.75    18    -2   -0.25    6.1
BUF Victor Olofsson           -2.09    52    -3   -0.91   22.7
BUF Rasmus Asplund            -3.70    29    -4   -0.30    7.5
BUF Henri Jokiharju           -3.76    67    -5   -1.24   30.9
BUF Lawrence Pilut            -3.78    13    -4   -0.22    5.5
BUF Casey Mittelstadt         -4.60    31    -5   -0.40    9.9
BUF Rasmus Dahlin             -6.95    57    -8   -1.05   26.2
BUF Jake McCabe               -8.80    64   -10   -1.20   30.1
BUF Colin Miller              -9.12    49   -10   -0.88   22.0
BUF Sam Reinhart             -11.67    67   -13   -1.33   33.3
BUF Marcus Johansson         -13.03    58   -14   -0.97   24.2
BUF Jeff Skinner             -19.08    57   -20   -0.92   23.1
==============================================================

 

[Doohicksie]

Exactly.  This tells me that Vesey is better than Jack.  Not bloody likely.

[pi2000]

14 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Exactly.  This tells me that Vesey is better than Jack.  Not bloody likely.

So you don't undertsand it then, confirmed.

[Torpedo Forecheck]

17 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

So you don't understand it then, confirmed.

Explain how a number that is always surprising can be correct?

[PerreaultForever]

trouble with those stat comparisons is they aren't telling you who the player is on the ice against.This is why often 3rd line guys can look better on paper. Put them on the top line and it's a different story. Same for D pairs. It depends who you play with, but also who you play against and at what times of the game you get put on the ice. All of that has to be factored in for a proper assessment. 

The eyes might miss some things but the eyes don't lie. 

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:

Explain how a number that is always surprising can be correct?

It tells you who is on the ice for more net goals for/against at even strength when compared to teammates.   It only compares players against eachother on the same team,...  who contributes positively and negatively to the team's even strength goal differential.

That said, Buffalo as a team is a -4 in even strength goal differential, not bad.    Last season Buffalo had a -45 goal differential at even strength.    That's a massive improvement.

So why wasn't there a a big jump in the standings?    ans... PK, league worst 74% kill rate.    In fact, over the past 25 years only 3 teams have finished a season with a kill rate <74%.   BUF has the 4th worst PK% on record out of the past 750 team years.

 

 

 

Edited March 6, 2020 by pi2000

[triumph_communes]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

It tells you who is on the ice for more net goals for/against at even strength when compared to teammates.   It only compares players against eachother on the same team,...  who contributes positively and negatively to the team's even strength goal differential.

That said, Buffalo as a team is a -4 in even strength goal differential, not bad.    Last season Buffalo had a -45 goal differential at even strength.    That's a massive improvement.

So why wasn't there a a big jump in the standings?    ans... PK, league worst 74% kill rate.    In fact, over the past 25 years only 3 teams have finished a season with a kill rate <74%.   BUF has the 4th worst PK% on record out of the past 750 team years.

 

 

 

Yes, it’s a better team with awful special teams. Something an assistant coach change could fix. Hard to do that mid season though. 

[pi2000]

7 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Yes, it’s a better team with awful special teams. Something an assistant coach change could fix. Hard to do that mid season though. 

I dont believe a new special teams coach will fix the PK entirely, maybe a marginal improvement.  They're ranked 10th worst in high danger scoring chances on the PK, could be better, but not historically terrible.   

Their xGA on the PK is 36, while they've given up 47.   At 36 goals against, their PK% jumps from 74 to 80%... Which would put them in the middle of the league.

They say your best penalty killer is your goalie.   Fix the goalie situation, add a 2C and they're easily in the playoff mix.