Reinhart, sign him or trade him?

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, LTS said:

Yes, recency bias.  Yours is from 1 game earlier. You do realize you are the pot in this story right?

Lol, exactly. 

[pi2000]

3 hours ago, LTS said:

Yes, recency bias.  Yours is from 1 game earlier. You do realize you are the pot in this story right?

Wrong.

His work ethic has been a question mark for years.   The lazy play on the Larkin goal came one game after he called out his teammates to "step the hell up", so it was magnified as it should have been.

His effort against the Rangers was the exception, not the rule.  It was an outlier, NOT the Detroit game. 

If he needs a reporter to light a fire under him, then we have bigger problems.

Edited February 9, 2020 by pi2000

[Familykwi]

On 2/7/2020 at 6:16 PM, LGR4GM said:

Oh look Reinhart scored. Where's the lazy and bad narrative? Nothing? 

Didn't think so.

So it's OK to be lazy if you eventually score?

[LGR4GM]

Oh look at that. Pi telling someone they are wrong but not admitting when he is. 

1 hour ago, Familykwi said:

So it's OK to be lazy if you eventually score?

[Torpedo Forecheck]

4 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Wrong.

His work ethic has been a question mark for years.   The lazy play on the Larkin goal came one game after he called out his teammates to "step the hell up", so it was magnified as it should have been.

His effort against the Rangers was the exception, not the rule.  It was an outlier, NOT the Detroit game. 

If he needs a reporter to light a fire under him, then we have bigger problems.

Who says? You? I've seen 85-90% of his games the last couple years and you know nothing of what you speak. If Sam Reinhart's work ethic is a big problem then we are all set.

It's laughable how people come on and attack the guys who aren't the problem regularly (Dahlin, Eichel, Reinhart). SMH

[PerreaultForever]

11 hours ago, Kristian said:

I was pretty livid over that play too, that said though if ever there was a situation for a guy like Sam to learn from, this was it.

Especially when Harrington went out of his way to piss him off in the post-game interview. Sam went out and played an A-plus road game the next night, and added a sweet breakaway goal.

Who knows, maybe a nice serving of public crow, actually taught him something?

How'd he look on the Getzlaf goal? He had a great view of it himself. 

[Kristian]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

How'd he look on the Getzlaf goal? He had a great view of it himself. 

Yup, same old crap.

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:

It's laughable how people come on and attack the guys who aren't the problem regularly (Dahlin, Eichel, Reinhart). SMH

Not me. Just Reinhart is the disappointment from that group.

Eichel this year is everything you want in an allstar offensive forward. I'm not sure if he's a great captain, my gut says no, but there is no real alternative there so you go with your best player.

Dahlin, I know some are impatient with him. Myself, I don't expect him to be the complete D man we expect him to be until he is about 23. If he's an allstar at 21 or 22 he'll be way ahead of the curve imo. 

Skinner's obviously been a huge disappointment and it's pretty much the worst case scenario I was afraid of when JBot opened the vault for him. not sure how we ever recover from that signing.

The other guy on the team I'm hugely disappointed in is Montour. All the hype in trading for him and imo he's a totally sh*t defenseman who wouldn't even crack the Bruins lineup as a #8. 

Johanson's not as good as I hoped but imo he's a lot like Reinhart. Swap his position with Sam's and I bet you'd swap their stats too.  Johanson started good here but lost his edge after being injured and I think the heart he'd picked up in Boston left right after. 

E-Rod, Sheary, Okposo, McCabe, Hutton,  Bogo, all crap, but didn't really expect much from them so whatever.

Look, it's not that Sam is the worst player on the team or anything, but imo he's not a leader, he doesn't give it his all, he doesn't have what it takes to be great. He has skills, but he lacks desire and at times effort. He is, imo a second line player at best benefiting from being on weak teams that keep him paired with a hugely talented center, and my fear is we will overpay him like a first line player just like we did with Skinner, who is similarly really a second line player as well.  

 

 

 

 

 

[Torpedo Forecheck]

3 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Not me. Just Reinhart is the disappointment from that group.

Eichel this year is everything you want in an allstar offensive forward. I'm not sure if he's a great captain, my gut says no, but there is no real alternative there so you go with your best player.

Dahlin, I know some are impatient with him. Myself, I don't expect him to be the complete D man we expect him to be until he is about 23. If he's an allstar at 21 or 22 he'll be way ahead of the curve imo. 

Skinner's obviously been a huge disappointment and it's pretty much the worst case scenario I was afraid of when JBot opened the vault for him. not sure how we ever recover from that signing.

The other guy on the team I'm hugely disappointed in is Montour. All the hype in trading for him and imo he's a totally sh*t defenseman who wouldn't even crack the Bruins lineup as a #8. 

Johanson's not as good as I hoped but imo he's a lot like Reinhart. Swap his position with Sam's and I bet you'd swap their stats too.  Johanson started good here but lost his edge after being injured and I think the heart he'd picked up in Boston left right after. 

E-Rod, Sheary, Okposo, McCabe, Hutton,  Bogo, all crap, but didn't really expect much from them so whatever.

Look, it's not that Sam is the worst player on the team or anything, but imo he's not a leader, he doesn't give it his all, he doesn't have what it takes to be great. He has skills, but he lacks desire and at times effort. He is, imo a second line player at best benefiting from being on weak teams that keep him paired with a hugely talented center, and my fear is we will overpay him like a first line player just like we did with Skinner, who is similarly really a second line player as well.  

 

 

 

 

 

Not buying what you're selling on this one (Mojo~SamR) Mr. Perreault.

Whether Reinhart is better as a second liner or a first liner, of course we'd be better of if he were used in a second line role. I do worry that JBot will overpay, and would prefer someone else made that decision. In short I want him back at the right price. All the guys, except Jack, are perhaps being used a role above where they could/should be due to lack of resources. Therefore, what happens IMO is guys are expected by fans to perform at levels they can't consistently play to.

We all want the same thing....success. I hope we don't bite off our noses to spite our face by focusing on the wrong things.

[PerreaultForever]

19 hours ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:

Not buying what you're selling on this one (Mojo~SamR) Mr. Perreault.

Whether Reinhart is better as a second liner or a first liner, of course we'd be better of if he were used in a second line role. I do worry that JBot will overpay, and would prefer someone else made that decision. In short I want him back at the right price. All the guys, except Jack, are perhaps being used a role above where they could/should be due to lack of resources. Therefore, what happens IMO is guys are expected by fans to perform at levels they can't consistently play to.

We all want the same thing....success. I hope we don't bite off our noses to spite our face by focusing on the wrong things.

Maybe not swap their stats fully, but I am sure if their positions were swapped Johanson would have a lot more points and Sam would have a lot less. If Sam was playing without Eichel all year there'd be a lot more people complaining about him too. 

[Doohicksie]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

If Sam was playing without Eichel all year there'd be a lot more people complaining about him too. 

We've been over this.  His numbers simply don't drop off when he plays without Eichel.

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Maybe not swap their stats fully, but I am sure if their positions were swapped Johanson would have a lot more points and Sam would have a lot less. If Sam was playing without Eichel all year there'd be a lot more people complaining about him too. 

22 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

This looks at Sam Reinhart and Jack Eichel from 2018-2020. This is for 5v5 against all teams. 

Jack and Sam have played 1564 minutes together. Reinhart has played 528 minutes without Eichel. That is about 1/3 of a regular full season. 

J+S = Jack and Sam together

S-J= Sam minus Jack

J+S has a better CF% at 51.95 compared to S-J being at 50.97%. xGF% is also slightly higher with J+S at 51.76 and S-J at 49.73%. Scoring Chance For (SCF%) seems to be the biggest gap. There is a 52.33% for J+S and only a 48.11% for S-J. Continuing HDCF% sees J+S at 52.85% and S-J at 51.35%. The final one for this part is off zone  faceoff percent where J+S are at 61.31% but S-J is at 57.51. 

So what does this part mean? Generally speaking, Jack + Sam have better numbers than Sam - Jack. On average that difference is... 2.1825% better when Sam and Jack are playing together than when Reinhart is playing without Eichel at all. So as we can see, Eichel with Sam is better. 

Let's get to part 2. Jack without Sam(J-S) and Sam without Jack (S-J). 

We already have some good numbers for Reinhart without Eichel. We have his CF% at 50.97%, xGF% at 49. 73%, SCF% at 48.11%, and HDCF% at 51.35%, Off Zone strt% at 57.51

Let's take a look at J-S and see how that lines up. We have CF% at 48.68%, xGF% 51.14%, SCF% at 48.69%, and HDCF% at 54.19%. Finally let's add on Off Zone strt% at 62.95

So what does this tell us? Well is tells us that even though Eichel starts in the offensive zone more than Reinhart, Reinhart has managed a better Corsi. Eichel is clearly the better goal scorer as we see the xGF number in eichels favor. Eichel is +1.41 when away from Sam. That is interesting as we have been told how well they work together and yet Reinhart with Eichel produced a lower expected goal rate. It also coincides with a slightly lower scoring chance rate with Jack - Sam at .58 higher. Now where it gets really interesting is the HDCF%. So basically this looks at shots taken from high danger areas of the ice. As has been shown by countless models and research, there are more dangerous areas of the ice than others. Sam Reinhart by himself is -2.84% compared to Eichel by himself. So generally when Jack is not with Sam his ability to generate these chances goes up. 

Okay let us summarize all this. Jack and Sam are not out of this world together but do slightly elevate the others game. They average a 52.223 across the 4 stats that I am looking at. This is compared to Eichel at 50.675 and Sam at 50.04 across the same 4 stats averaged together. Corsi for and HDCF seem to be something Sam excels at. This makes sense to me because he is criminally underrated with making little plays that get the puck to the net or to someone who will get the puck to the net. Eichel being also good at HDCF makes sense because of his skating/stickhandling/shot. That leads us to the next stats of xGF% and SCF% in which Eichel was better without Sam. The expected goals % makes the most sense because Eichel has a really good shot and does get to use it in dangerous places. We see Sam with a deficit without Eichel's shot on the ice. SCF% was also in favor of Jack by himself. As with HDCF this makes sense. Interesting was that Sam rated this as his best category. I think that has to do with the little plays and Sam being in front of the net. He gets and generates a lot of HDCF. 

The final number I saved until the end is Goals For / Goals Against or GF%. Jack and Sam together have a 53.42. Jack minus Sam has a 53.13, so barely a blip on his radar. Sam minus Jack drops to 51.06.  So generally speaking Eichel is getting more goals and seeing less against with Sam and without Sam. Sam is a little less here and again, I think we know that Eichel is the better player so that makes sense. However we have heard it reported on here that Reinhart is lazy and trash in the defensive end in particular and if that were the case the underlying numbers would show us that. They really don't. His corsi, HDCF%, and GF% don't show us a player that without Jack falls off the cliff. I took a look at Skinner in this as well. Jeff and Jack together is good. Jeff and Sam together is bad. Sam without Jack and Jeff is surprisingly good. 

All in all my conclusion is that Reinhart works with just about everyone away from Jack (except Skinner in limited minutes. That looked bad).  Reinhart helps elevate Eichel and Eichel helps elevate Reinhart. The difference is not that much and Sam has good underlying numbers in the 528 minutes he played without Eichel. Is Sam dependent on Jack for scoring? No. Reinhart would produce on his own with any decent linemates. Reinhart runs a 2.727gp/60 alone and a 2.992 with Eichel. That isn't a massive gap at all. Does Eichel need Reinhart on his wing, again no. Eichel would produce still (4.048gp/60). Should we be worried about giving Reinhart a contract based on his play with Eichel "inflating his stats"? I would say no because Reinhart should work well with any center we bring in and produce at a similar level. What this does not account for is strength of competition. If we had a line of Olofsson - Cozens - Reinhart they would play against other teams 2nd lines and pairings compared to the Skinner - Eichel - ????? line. This I think would balance out the scoring "drop" some have suggested. My only conclusion then is that Reinhart can and does produce shots and scoring chances away from Eichel and does not get caved in defensively. Therefore he will be worth the 7million dollars he gets at the end of the year. 

I picked high danger corsi for % (HDCF%), expected goals % (xGF%), scoring chance % (SCF%) and goals for % (GF%) because I wanted a mix of stats that have some prediction values. Goals are a relatively rare event in hockey so shot metrics tend to tell us a little more. I used the percentages because they help normalize numbers. You can see the for and against in the percentages. Also these numbers were readily available on Nat Stat Trick for use and I could easily separate the players. I almost included a couple more like on ice shooting % but we know Eichel is a better shot so again, it would have been redundant. Finally I calculated the goals per 60 minutes number for each player. I think this helps us see that Eichel is very good and Sam is good. We can separate them with no ill effects on the team and in all likelihood, better overall scoring on the team. 

 

19 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

Nice effort on pulling this, especially considering the O'Reilly factor.  I think the assumptions are fair that if you included a top rated center with his numbers in 2016/17 they might be show better.  But this also mean the inverse is true.  You take into account that the 2018-19 lines where Jack has a slightly better Goals for, High danger, etc and assume that when not paired with Sam, Jack was playing with Jeff most of this time.  (I believe 20% of his TOI was with Jeff, and not Sam).   While Sam was playing with Casey, Evan, Conor, Vlad and Tage when not with Jack.  (Shown below as a % of total on ice for 2018/19).  The results displayed for a positive Corsi and only a slightly worse than scoring for are not bad considering the caliber of center and wingers he played with.  I would love to try to see how this manifested in this years numbers, but unfortunately a stubborn RK refuses to pair Jack with Jeff, and split Sam from Jack so who knows.   Either way, the numbers to me show that if paired with a competent center (2C) and a better than average LW (Johansson) Sam has a positive upside to the analysis provided.   

 

 

[mjd1001]

53 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

We've been over this.  His numbers simply don't drop off when he plays without Eichel.

If that is true, then why does it seem he is glued to Eichel like no other 2 players are?  If it is true that their numbers don't drop off when seperate, then why is that the ONE thing this coach hasn't done to try to get a 2nd line going?

[Doohicksie]

You'd have to ask Ralph. 

[LGR4GM]

21 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

If that is true, then why does it seem he is glued to Eichel like no other 2 players are?  If it is true that their numbers don't drop off when seperate, then why is that the ONE thing this coach hasn't done to try to get a 2nd line going?

Because the coach decided to do that. And it is true his numbers don't drop off. Corsi, HDCF, xGF%, SC%, and gp/60 all just barely drop when Reinhart is separated from Eichel. 

[sabremike]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Because the coach decided to do that. And it is true his numbers don't drop off. Corsi, HDCF, xGF%, SC%, and gp/60 all just barely drop when Reinhart is separated from Eichel. 

Which is one of many reasons why I don't rate Ralph at all as a coach. 

[PerreaultForever]

8 hours ago, sabremike said:

Which is one of many reasons why I don't rate Ralph at all as a coach. 

Always blame the coach, never look for the constants that are there year after year. 

[PerreaultForever]

Columbus game. 32.5 seconds left in the first. Watch Reinhart. This is why we shouldn't pay him big money. Simple as that. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

18 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Columbus game. 32.5 seconds left in the first. Watch Reinhart. This is why we shouldn't pay him big money. Simple as that. 

I thought this might give you a good laugh...and some nice charts.

https://thechargingbuffalo.net/2020/02/09/sam-reinhart-hes-the-solution-not-the-problem/

[Randall Flagg]

18 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Columbus game. 32.5 seconds left in the first. Watch Reinhart. This is why we shouldn't pay him big money. Simple as that. 

What about his play on the Eichel goal?

Crosby has controller-disconnected gifs. Was it wrong for the Pens to sign him?

"Simple as that" referring to one single play is literally the worst case you could possibly construct. Eyes rolling out of my skull

[Torpedo Forecheck]

And against the Stanley Cup Champs. The campaign against Sam has become laughable. FOCUS ON THE REAL PROBLEMS. Not cherry picking against someone because it fits the narrative.

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I thought this might give you a good laugh...and some nice charts.

https://thechargingbuffalo.net/2020/02/09/sam-reinhart-hes-the-solution-not-the-problem/

He lost me at "But, let’s not forget to mention that the team lost one of their best forwards from the 2018-19 season in Jason Pominville."

[SwampD]

22 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Columbus game. 32.5 seconds left in the first. Watch Reinhart. This is why we shouldn't pay him big money. Simple as that. 

Not sure what you are getting at here. Sam stopped at the blue line when he saw both Sheary and Joki attacking the guy with the puck. If they get it (which they should have), Sam would have been in the perfect spot to get the puck along the boards to enter the zone.

He absolutely made the right play. They just failed to get the puck.

[PerreaultForever]

11 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I thought this might give you a good laugh...and some nice charts.

https://thechargingbuffalo.net/2020/02/09/sam-reinhart-hes-the-solution-not-the-problem/

Pretty colors. Thanks. 

 

6 hours ago, SwampD said:

Not sure what you are getting at here. Sam stopped at the blue line when he saw both Sheary and Joki attacking the guy with the puck. If they get it (which they should have), Sam would have been in the perfect spot to get the puck along the boards to enter the zone.

He absolutely made the right play. They just failed to get the puck.

Yes, it's always someone else. 

Kind of my point. Sam stopping and expecting someone else to do it so he can just wait for a nice Eichel pass or rebound. Nice gig if you can get it.

 

[PerreaultForever]

11 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

What about his play on the Eichel goal?

Crosby has controller-disconnected gifs. Was it wrong for the Pens to sign him?

"Simple as that" referring to one single play is literally the worst case you could possibly construct. Eyes rolling out of my skull

Obviously it's not about "one single play" that was simply the most recent and current example. The Detroit game was another. Guess he didn't value that play for his personal stats.

there are lots of examples. Most games. Not every one costs us and so they don't get noticed as easily. maybe someone else covers or the goalie stops it and so on so play easily dismissed and forgotten, but they are frequent and form a pattern imo.

I've never said he doesn't make some good plays. He makes a good one, he makes a bad one, and he doesn't work or compete hard enough imo. Hence not a leader, not valuable as a core player, and I don't want to pay him big bucks over long term. Is he completely useless? No.  Just not what I'd build around. imo JBot should trade him to some GM who overvalues all those fancy diagrams and stats that imo only tell part of the complete story. Then spend that money on others who do work and compete the way I want this team to.