Reinhart, sign him or trade him?

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

It's interesting that when asked about Sam, the head coach chooses to praise the work he puts into himself off the ice.  

I, for one, don't see that killer instinct, or exceptionally high compete level from Sam on a consistent enough basis.    He can get away with it because he has above average hands and sees the ice well... He could be so much more if he cared deeply about the team, but his style of play suggests that he cares about himself and his own stats, more than team results.   

That said, I do see him compete in spurts, at end of games if the score is close for example.   But he doesn't bring IT every game, every shift... not many players do, but you'd like to it see it more often than not and for same it's more often lacking. 

Also noteworthy that all the Reinhart apologists can do is point at his numbers, because that's all he his.  He doesn't bring any of the intangibles which make a team successful.   His play on the ice doesn't inspire his teammates to be better.    It's not necessarily a bad thing, there is a role for that type of player, but when investing in long term deal, you need to evaluate the entire package.   

Is this peak Sam? 

Is he going to be consistently around 50th in points playing alongside a top five +100pt player? 

Would you give similarly productive players like Jaden Schwartz, Dadanov, Vrana, Killorn that same kind of money to play with Eichel?  

 

I, too, would like to see more fire in the belly from Reino.

In terms of intangibles, I will say that he consistently sticks up for his teammates in scrums -- not with fists but with an acceptable amount of shoving and smack-talking, especially for a skill guy.

The bolded is simply incorrect as a factual matter.  Here is the quote from the Athletic:
 

Quote

 

Reinhart has grown into solidly built 6-foot-1, 194-pounder at age 24. His shot is much stronger, too.

“No matter how good you are, you don’t have that man strength when you first come in the league,” said Reinhart’s father, Paul, a longtime NHL defenseman. “That’s something you develop over time. Being around high-performance athletes day in and day out is where you generally start to gain some of that man strength.

“But, in fairness, he spends a tremendous amount of time during the season and in particular the offseason training. That’s different than when I played. Guys are way more inclined to do it today. They put a lot of time and effort and focus on their trade.

“I give him credit for putting the time and effort in.”

Sabres coach Ralph Krueger backed up that compliment.

“His conditioning is among the top of our team,” Krueger said. “He works as hard as anybody on his body and his overall professional package, which is an example for everybody.”

 

 

46 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I haven't played at a high level, but anyone who has ever played at any level wants to play with the guy who gets them in the puck when the need to be given the puck, or is in the right place to cover up for your mistakes. Sam does both better than most. They also get frustrated playing with the puck hog who always shoots first and loafs on the backcheck, which Jeff can be prone to doing. But you know that already.

I agree that he puts the puck where his teammates need it very well, but not with the bolded.

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

 

 

See here are all the posts in which POINTS were the main argument from Pi and then suddenly it is effort. Amazing. Doh Bettar. 

So what? 

I'm not allowed to make the argument that his point production alongside Eichel is mediocre AND his effort is questionable?    

I can understand (sort of) paying 7.5/yr to a guy in his point range, but that guy needs to bring something else to the table besides just average first line point production.   

I'm still waiting to hear what else he brings, what is it that makes him a better asset than the myriad of other 50th ranked point producers.  

Edited January 22, 2020 by pi2000

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree that he puts the puck where his teammates need it very well, but not with the bolded.

Take it up with Krueger.

“What we love about Sam is how he’s embraced the necessity of playing without the puck and staying above it when the others are below it, tracking back hard and working with our D if called upon, being low if Jack’s high in the D-zone,” the coach said. “All those things, Jack and Sam are an amazing duo. Sam’s offense is growing out of that defense, which is nice for us to see.”

Sam is on the right side of the puck more than pretty much any Sabre.

[mjd1001]

21 hours ago, dudacek said:

False argument. No one is suggesting Reinhart be re-signed as a centrepiece; in the current market those guys get $10 million-plus.

Some people seem to think $7 million involves some kind of projection of play Sam has not achieved. They're wrong. $7 million is market value for guys who can play on the first line but are not centrepieces. And that's what Sam is. The numbers are further up the thread. The 50th highest-paid forward in the NHL makes $6.7 million. Sam is the 40th highest-scoring forward in the NHL over the past 2-plus years. If he continues scoring at his current levels he gives value for the money right away. As salaries rise, he will quickly be a become a bargain.

It's exasperating watching Vesey after Sheary after Kane after god-knows-who trotted out on Eichel's wing and fail, or watching people bend over backwards to make excuses for Skinner's 40-point pace on the second line, then see Reinhart dismissed as a passenger. Being able to play with good players is a plus, not a minus.

Kurri had his numbers inflated by Gretzky, Kunitz by Crosby, Shutt by Lafleur. So ***** what? They were put in a position to succeed and they succeeded.

What's the point in seeing (again) how Reinhart does with guys like Vesey and Sheary? His numbers will go down, just like Skinner's have and Jack's will. Coaches tend to play good players with other good players for a reason. Reinhart's best skill is reading and reacting with high-level players. A coach would have to be brain-dead to play him with plumbers.

Forcing him to carry his own line is a no-win situation for Buffalo: If he succeeds then he's asking for and deserving a Skinner contract. If he fails, you end up with a demoralized, devalued asset you end up shipping out for a devalued price to a team that will utilize him properly. Meanwhile, your best hope in finding a replacement capable of playing at that level is to shoot for another top-five draft pick, or pray for a GM dumb enough to trade you the next O'Reilly for a bag of pucks.

Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Reinhart is not a star, but he is a very good player. Pay him for what he is. Thank your lucky stars if it's long-term and starts with a 7.

Good players are hard to find. Keep the ones we have and go find some more.

False argument? LOL, how can you call something a false argument when you have no idea what the Sabres are even going to pay him?  My whole point, that you call 'false' is that Sam has not had enough time away from Eichel to establish a value on him.  Give him at least 20 games away from Eichel.  What kind of player his he then in terms of production?  Does he give you 20 points in 20 games?  15?  10? 5?    Before I can make a determination, as a fan, if I think what the Sabres are paying him is worth it, I need a much larger sample size of him away from Jack to figure that out.

[LGR4GM]

37 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

False argument? LOL, how can you call something a false argument when you have no idea what the Sabres are even going to pay him?  My whole point, that you call 'false' is that Sam has not had enough time away from Eichel to establish a value on him.  Give him at least 20 games away from Eichel.  What kind of player his he then in terms of production?  Does he give you 20 points in 20 games?  15?  10? 5?    Before I can make a determination, as a fan, if I think what the Sabres are paying him is worth it, I need a much larger sample size of him away from Jack to figure that out.

I mean did you read the thread or just decide this was the hill to die on?

On 1/15/2020 at 11:06 AM, Randall Flagg said:

We can check and see  if this has merit or if you're just making stuff up - in the last 3 seasons, Reinhart has spent 38% of his ES time away from Eichel. 

He has 25 goals and 67 points with Eichel and 20 goals and 21 assists without him. Prorating these rates out for a full season, we would have: 

With Eichel: 82 games, ~16 even strength goals, ~42 even strength points
Without Eichel: 82 games, ~21 even strength goals, ~43 even strength points

This includes the time he spent centering Griffith and Moulson in 2017-18, as well as his stretches with last year's Sobotka and Sheary/Rodrigues. So I don't really buy your random guessing. 

It makes sense that his assists spike with a guy like Jack and his shot (as well as Olofsson/Skinner when he's up there) but when he's NOT with Jack his linemates have generally been horrendous, aside from stints with ROR in the first year of this analysis (which was his worst ES year of the 3 by FAR, and so doesn't contribute heavily). 

These statistics indicate why we were so anxious to see Reinhart drive his own line in the first place, and the fact that I'm seeing the conclusion that he can't being drawn from the simple fact that our coaches don't DO it rather than actually seeing what happens, I am inclined to ignore the rest of what the people saying this have to say on the subject

By the way, Sam averages ~15-20 PP points per season in the last 3, and there's no need to remove Eichel from the equation there, so that gives us the ~60 point player we see in that span. And he's gotten better at piling up points every season of his career and will approach 70 this one

 

Edited January 22, 2020 by LGR4GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

The 2RW vs 1RW can make little or no difference in scoring.  This list I compiled earlier includes a few 2nd RW and in the case of Arvidsson a 3rd line RW. One for example Kane actually plays on Chicago’s 2nd line. Scoring can depend on linemates, matchups and other factors including the skill of the player, coaches usage, PP time etc.

So depending on Reinhart’s chemistry with Skinner and MoJo it’s very possible his point production would increase. 

Edited January 22, 2020 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

I'll bet y'all $20 if Reinhart played the entire season with skinner as his wingman that this exact same argument would be occurring because the real underlying belief is Reinhart isn't good and is just riding the coattails of his linemates. That's what is being argued here. 

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'll bet y'all $20 if Reinhart played the entire season with skinner as his wingman that this exact same argument would be occurring because the real underlying belief is Reinhart isn't good and is just riding the coattails of his linemates. That's what is being argued here. 

Yep. It's a "I don't like his style, therefore I don't trust/value his production" that seems peculiar to Reinhart

Don't recall this kind of talk about Eichel before he signed or Skinner before he did.

Didn't see the Leaf fans devaluing Marner's points when they suddenly went through the roof when he started playing with Tavares, or Tampa fans refusing to pay Point until they see him playing for long stretches without Kucherov.

If you aren't planning to ever play Reinhart with 3rd liners, why do you care so much what he produces with 3rd liners? Isn't it moot?

Edited January 22, 2020 by dudacek

[mjd1001]

40 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I mean did you read the thread or just decide this was the hill to die on?

 

Nope, did not read the entire thread.  I don't have time to go over every single post in every thread. I try to read most of them, but don't have time for all of them.  Just like did you research every post I made in other threads about Reinhart? Because a big thing for me is his even strength production.  Or did you not have time to do that and just wanted to die on the hill of your own argument without knowing what I personally think is important in making my posts?

Here is the problem with the stats that you referenced that were posted...of those games without Eichel on his line...a larger portion of that production was on the powerplay.  To be honest, I STILL need to see him for a prolonged stretch without Eichel now, this year...because even strength is where I'm making most of my decision on him.

BTW,  cute of you to say that is the hill I wanted to die on....give me the even strength numbers without Eichel, preferably recently, then lets go from there.

Edited January 22, 2020 by mjd1001

[DarthEbriate]

He's the Wedge to our Jack Skyeichel. Or maybe he's Biggs or even Han --- because he gives Jack the time and space to make the shot. But he's a good wingman. It's the remainder of the 2nd line that needs building up and fine-tuning.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

False argument? LOL, how can you call something a false argument when you have no idea what the Sabres are even going to pay him?  My whole point, that you call 'false' is that Sam has not had enough time away from Eichel to establish a value on him.  Give him at least 20 games away from Eichel.  What kind of player his he then in terms of production?  Does he give you 20 points in 20 games?  15?  10? 5?    Before I can make a determination, as a fan, if I think what the Sabres are paying him is worth it, I need a much larger sample size of him away from Jack to figure that out.

In practical terms, how much is this information going to affect your maximum offer?

If he gets 10 points in 20 games without Jack and 65 points in 80 games with him, what is your fair offer?

How different will that offer be it if he gets 16 points in the 20?

What's your reply when his agent uses Willie Nylander as a comparable, putting up similar numbers with Austin Matthews?

[TrueBlueGED]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

In practical terms, how much is this information going to affect your maximum offer?

If he gets 10 points in 20 games without Jack and 65 points in 80 games with him, what is your fair offer?

How different will that offer be it if he gets 16 points in the 20?

What's your reply when his agent uses Willie Nylander as a comparable, putting up similar numbers with Austin Matthews?

What a good contract that is, despite all of the ridicule it received upon signing. We'll be fortunate to get Reinhart on a similar deal. 

[PerreaultForever]

Wow some of you desperately keep trying so hard to praise Sam over and over and yet the issue never goes away. Where there is smoke, there is fire. 

Many of us look at hockey differently from others. Many of us value different things more than others. The snide loftiness from some is unnecessary. Time will tell who is right and who was wrong. I will gladly eat crow should he lead us to a Stanley Cup and I trust his supporters will be willing to admit they were wrong if time makes it clearer that we were right instead. In either case, it won't be decided here and now so we will just have to see what JBot thinks this summer and live with it. 

Clearly, you will never be convinced and you already know you will not convince me and the other detractors. I will let the results speak for themselves and continue to periodically point out things he does badly while still hoping JBot will trade him and help move this franchise forward, but I doubt that happens.Likely we will be stuck with an overpaid slacker for the next decade. The draft lottery and fire the coach/GM threads should be fun.But please, spare me the snide comments. You can in fact, do better. 

[Zamboni]

????

 

only IF he LEADS us to a Stanley Cup. That’s rich. 

you are right about one thing, you’ll never change your opinion. And neither will those who like Reinhart. And like you pointing out any negative plays, passes, falls, ,trips and sneezes, I and others will continue to give Reinhart DUE praise when he does something well. God knows the haters won’t.

Edited January 22, 2020 by Zamboni

[GASabresIUFAN]

Trade him for what?  Who are we going to get that will take the team forward?  Do you have a 2C who will add 80 pts who someone will trade to us who is 24 and under team control?

If Cozens grows into the 2C we need, who are our RW for the top 2 lines? 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

There's alot of stats in this thread where Sam's numbers are posted when away from Jack. However, has anyone compared Jack's numbers without Sam? Therein could be an argument in this debate of "how much does Sam bring to the team and how much is he worth".

Also another note.....when discussing that Reinhart is 60th in assists it sounds like there is so much room for improvement when actually only 6a separate him from being 23rd in the league. And seeing that we are discussing the forward position, at 23rd there would be 5D ahead of him pushing him to 18th among forwards....6A in 49gms is the difference between 60th and 18th....those same 6a would put him at 5th among RW. I don't see where there's any huge difference in an upgrade over Sam. Just saying that 60th would sound like it's miles apart from the top of the charts when in reality he's much closer to the top of his position than it would seem.

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Nope, did not read the entire thread.  I don't have time to go over every single post in every thread. I try to read most of them, but don't have time for all of them.  Just like did you research every post I made in other threads about Reinhart? Because a big thing for me is his even strength production.  Or did you not have time to do that and just wanted to die on the hill of your own argument without knowing what I personally think is important in making my posts?

Here is the problem with the stats that you referenced that were posted...of those games without Eichel on his line...a larger portion of that production was on the powerplay.  To be honest, I STILL need to see him for a prolonged stretch without Eichel now, this year...because even strength is where I'm making most of my decision on him.

BTW,  cute of you to say that is the hill I wanted to die on....give me the even strength numbers without Eichel, preferably recently, then lets go from there.

It's in the ***** post I quoted to you! Holy crap.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Wow some of you desperately keep trying so hard to praise Sam over and over and yet the issue never goes away. Where there is smoke, there is fire. 

Many of us look at hockey differently from others. Many of us value different things more than others. The snide loftiness from some is unnecessary. Time will tell who is right and who was wrong. I will gladly eat crow should he lead us to a Stanley Cup and I trust his supporters will be willing to admit they were wrong if time makes it clearer that we were right instead. In either case, it won't be decided here and now so we will just have to see what JBot thinks this summer and live with it. 

Clearly, you will never be convinced and you already know you will not convince me and the other detractors. I will let the results speak for themselves and continue to periodically point out things he does badly while still hoping JBot will trade him and help move this franchise forward, but I doubt that happens.Likely we will be stuck with an overpaid slacker for the next decade. The draft lottery and fire the coach/GM threads should be fun.But please, spare me the snide comments. You can in fact, do better. 

But you don't subscribe to that at all. You had this opinion of Reinhart when he was a 45 point scorer and it didn't change when he became a 65-point scorer.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

When do the Sabres play again? 

This thread is crazy.

Sam IS fine and will be finer.

[LGR4GM]

@mjd1001

Courtesy of Flagg

"We can check and see  if this has merit or if you're just making stuff up - in the last 3 seasons, Reinhart has spent 38% of his ES time away from Eichel. 

He has 25 goals and 67 points with Eichel and 20 goals and 21 assists without him. Prorating these rates out for a full season, we would have: 

With Eichel: 82 games, ~16 even strength goals, ~42 even strength points
Without Eichel: 82 games, ~21 even strength goals, ~43 even strength points"

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Wow some of you desperately keep trying so hard to praise Sam over and over and yet the issue never goes away. Where there is smoke, there is fire. 

Many of us look at hockey differently from others. Many of us value different things more than others. The snide loftiness from some is unnecessary. Time will tell who is right and who was wrong. I will gladly eat crow should he lead us to a Stanley Cup and I trust his supporters will be willing to admit they were wrong if time makes it clearer that we were right instead. In either case, it won't be decided here and now so we will just have to see what JBot thinks this summer and live with it. 

Clearly, you will never be convinced and you already know you will not convince me and the other detractors. I will let the results speak for themselves and continue to periodically point out things he does badly while still hoping JBot will trade him and help move this franchise forward, but I doubt that happens.Likely we will be stuck with an overpaid slacker for the next decade. The draft lottery and fire the coach/GM threads should be fun.But please, spare me the snide comments. You can in fact, do better. 

I admit when I'm wrong. I'll bet money you and Pi won't. You'll just change the argument to something else and pretend that's what you meant all along. 

For the record 8mil is my cap on Reinhart because he does have limits and we should be aware of them. However I think a 7 year deal for Sam would be a good investment. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

@MakeSabresGrr8Again It is an interesting question about how Jack does without Sam.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I admit when I'm wrong. I'll bet money you and Pi won't. You'll just change the argument to something else and pretend that's what you meant all along. 

For the record 8mil is my cap on Reinhart because he does have limits and we should be aware of them. However I think a 7 year deal for Sam would be a good investment. 

I think Sam will get an $8.5 for 8 year deal.  He could have been had for less $ (6.5ish I would think) on that same term 2 years ago.  Maybe he really does like playing with Eich and the city, so a home team discount could mean the $8 you would like to see.  I can't see him asking for and the Sabres not willing to pay less than that.  And, he is worth it.

[Andrew Amerk]

2 hours ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

There's alot of stats in this thread where Sam's numbers are posted when away from Jack. However, has anyone compared Jack's numbers without Sam? Therein could be an argument in this debate of "how much does Sam bring to the team and how much is he worth".

Also another note.....when discussing that Reinhart is 60th in assists it sounds like there is so much room for improvement when actually only 6a separate him from being 23rd in the league. And seeing that we are discussing the forward position, at 23rd there would be 5D ahead of him pushing him to 18th among forwards....6A in 49gms is the difference between 60th and 18th....those same 6a would put him at 5th among RW. I don't see where there's any huge difference in an upgrade over Sam. Just saying that 60th would sound like it's miles apart from the top of the charts when in reality he's much closer to the top of his position than it would seem.

So, basically, there’s at least 42 other forwards just like Samson? 

[rakish]

1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

There's alot of stats in this thread where Sam's numbers are posted when away from Jack. However, has anyone compared Jack's numbers without Sam? Therein could be an argument in this debate of "how much does Sam bring to the team and how much is he worth".

 

Eichel has spectacular numbers without Reinhart, but you must put the numbers in context to understand why it isn't that important. Let's say the Larsson's line is on the ice and Okposo gets tripped, it's Eichel that comes over the boards when the goaltender comes off the ice. At this point you have a fresh Eichel on a 6-5, against a tired defense who doesn't normally play very good defense (remember it's Larsson's line on the ice). There's a very good chance of Eichel scoring, but it doesn't happen because Reinhart isn't on the ice.

Second situation where they don't play together. Up by 1, or better yet 2, with two minutes left. Eichel gets to play these situations, Reinhart isn't on team "'opponent's empty net."

So I could give you Jack's numbers without Sam, but those numbers mean a whole lot less than what you would take them to mean, so I won't. That said, I don't think they play well together and Reinhart should be the 2C everyone craves.