GDT: 11/1/19 Buffalo at Washington, 7:00 pm ET, MSG, NHL & WGR 550

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

We all do. But good should be defined by winning, full stop.

Last year's winning streak would like to have a word with you about that. It's a simple concept, of course: Fool's gold.

Your post is thoughtful and well-considered. I'm gonna think on it some more.

For now, I will repeat something I've said around here many times before: On an in-game basis, I almost never, ever think or talk about #fancystats. Like, at all. So, I do simply enjoy the game for what it is (or, sometimes just turn it off because it's shite). If the good guys are winning because our keeper is standing on his head, then WOOHOO, KEEPER! 

Then, when I am in off-game mode, I tend to think about the numbers to get some sense of where the team is, and where it's headed. It's a duality that works for me.

46 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

But a team that demonstrates how good it is by scoring on more shots than "expected" or allowing fewer shots to go in than "expected" is considered lucky. It's madness.

Wait - a team can demonstrate how good it is by virtue of how lucky it is?

Again, what you've laid out is not madness. It's sorta the definition of what luck is. Or fortune. 

And I endorse the idea that teams can make (some of) their own luck. That's where those shot location maps are helpful. And I get the clear sense that the Sabres are going to be more about quality than quantity, etc.

The Sabres remain top-5 in PDO. Is that a product of RaKru's philosophy of fewer, but better shots? Maybe? I'm interested to see how it plays out.

At minimum, I'd really like to see a game tonight with a SOG tally that's in the Sabres' favour or at least not heavily against them.

 

[dudacek]

20 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Last year's winning streak would like to have a word with you about that. It's a simple concept, of course: Fool's gold.

Your post is thoughtful and well-considered. I'm gonna think on it some more.

For now, I will repeat something I've said around here many times before: On an in-game basis, I almost never, ever think or talk about #fancystats. Like, at all. So, I do simply enjoy the game for what it is (or, sometimes just turn it off because it's shite). If the good guys are winning because our keeper is standing on his head, then WOOHOO, KEEPER! 

Then, when I am in off-game mode, I tend to think about the numbers to get some sense of where the team is, and where it's headed. It's a duality that works for me.

 

This works.

Nothing wrong with using the analytics to sharpen expectations of tomorrow, so long as they don’t rob you of the joys of today.

But the 10 game streak wasn’t fool’s gold. It’s more like an oasis in a decade-long desert, to be savoured while you had it.

I think about how sad would it have been to have spent all of ‘99 talking up “unsustainability” while denying yourself the pleasure of spanking the Leafs?

Edited November 1, 2019 by dudacek

[steveoath]

Looking forward to this tonight. I'm going for a 4-2 to the good guys. 

Skinner X2, Risto and Sam

 

[That Aud Smell]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

But the 10 game streak wasn’t fool’s gold. It’s more like an oasis in a decade-long desert, to be savoured while you had it.

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think about how sad would it have been to have spent all of ‘99 talking up “unsustainability” while denying yourself the pleasure of spanking the Leafs?

Edited November 1, 2019 by That Aud Smell

[Radar]

2 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

This will be a very good test for our boys! Go Sabres! 

A very good test. Particularly defensively.

[dudacek]

25 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Some day I will learn to speak meme and Eleven will be all by himself.

[Derrico]

That 10 game win streak is robbing us of joy this year.  Imagine that 10 game streak never happens last year and I can't imagine what this place would look like right now.

I'm confident we have the coach, D and enough firepower up front to be a dangerous team.  It's not always going to be rosy and hemming the other team in their own end.  Games will have ebbs and flows.  Just keep winning baby!

[...]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Some day I will learn to speak meme and Eleven will be all by himself.

@That Aud Smell skooled you. Pay attention, Grasshopper!

[Doohicksie]

MAST ONE

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

Then, when I am in off-game mode, I tend to think about the numbers to get some sense of where the team is, and where it's headed. It's a duality that works for me.

This tickled me. Would the Hasek-era Sabres be as fun today? All of the metrics and stats tell you... eek, they're not very good. But they just keep winning. Every game is excruciatingly fun to watch, but during the down time... a message board (even as grand as this one)... would not be as forgiving as I am.

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Analytics have ruined people...

...or maybe it’s just too many years of false hope.

I wouldn't really say it's necessarily analytics. Notice his post said "look" good doing it, not "have really good underlying metrics".

The idea of caring about the result in a small sample size less than how they actually play isn't a recently developed idea tied to the advancement in fancy stats. 

Carrying most about how they play, particularly early in the season, makes sense when it's a marathon, not a sprint. I'll always take enjoyment in the win, in the moment, regardless of how it happens, of course.

But I also don't buy the idea that carrying about the "how" in the moment takes away from the enjoyment, in the large scale, necessarily. Because it goes both ways. If someone were to enjoy a win slightly less cause we looked bad doing it, that same person would probably enjoy a loss slightly more than others, because of how good we looked doing it. 

It's multi-faceted, there's no one right way. To your point, undoubtedly there are times it seems the reliance and focus on the underlying numbers specifically threatens to jump the shark. 

Edited November 1, 2019 by Thorny

[Torpedo Forecheck]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I wouldn't really say it's necessarily analytics. Notice his post said "look" good doing it, not "have really good underlying metrics".

The idea of caring about the result in a small sample size less than how they actually play isn't a recently developed idea tied to the advancement in fancy stats. 

Good to know that if they look good to the eye test and the metrics aren't great that everyone will be pleased! Doubtful.

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:

Good to know that if they look good to the eye test and the metrics aren't great that everyone will be pleased! Doubtful.

Hard to say, you'll have to ask "everyone". 

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

This works.

Nothing wrong with using the analytics to sharpen expectations of tomorrow, so long as they don’t rob you of the joys of today.

But the 10 game streak wasn’t fool’s gold. It’s more like an oasis in a decade-long desert, to be savoured while you had it.

I think about how sad would it have been to have spent all of ‘99 talking up “unsustainability” while denying yourself the pleasure of spanking the Leafs?

Plenty did exactly that, league wide. The form the conversation took was not analytics, but there was still plenty of "can this hold up?" going on. The narrative was often "over-matched roster bailed out by Hall of Fame goalie" (even if that often wasn't the case, as Sabres fans who followed closely would know)

It was seen as a pretty big surprise we made it as far as we did, the perception outside (ask any Leafs media) was that we were lucky to beat them, that Hasek was carrying them all year, and folks were waiting for the bubble to burst. It wasn't a "This team is in the final, this must be a great team top to bottom, you are your record, only wins matter" type deal. 

There's also a line where perceived sustainability just won't matter anymore to many. Sure Hasek was standing on his head, but considering who Hasek was, expecting the sublime from him seemed logical. It was easy to enjoy the hell out of it. 

Edited November 1, 2019 by Thorny

[Torpedo Forecheck]

17 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Hard to say, you'll have to ask "everyone". 

you will not of course

[That Aud Smell]

47 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

This tickled me. Would the Hasek-era Sabres be as fun today? All of the metrics and stats tell you... eek, they're not very good. But they just keep winning. Every game is excruciatingly fun to watch, but during the down time... a message board (even as grand as this one)... would not be as forgiving as I am.

The Hasek-era Sabres really are a bit of a unicorn. They had the best goaltender of all time (imo), at the peak of his powers, and a game that was ~5 years away from being reformed to reduce obstruction, etc. It was an open secret (?) that a mediocre roster was riding Dom as far as he could take them.

38 minutes ago, Torpedo Forecheck said:

Good to know that if they look good to the eye test and the metrics aren't great that everyone will be pleased! 

In that event, one of the measuring assessments would (largely) be in error. And I don't really wonder which one it would be.

[Torpedo Forecheck]

12 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

The Hasek-era Sabres really are a bit of a unicorn. They had the best goaltender of all time (imo), at the peak of his powers, and a game that was ~5 years away from being reformed to reduce obstruction, etc. It was an open secret (?) that a mediocre roster was riding Dom as far as he could take them.

In that event, one of the measuring assessments would (largely) be in error. And I don't really wonder which one it would be.

Oh yeah which one?

[Stoner]

2 hours ago, dudacek said:

Some day I will learn to speak meme and Eleven will be all by himself.

[Stoner]

3 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

Wait - a team can demonstrate how good it is by virtue of how lucky it is?

Why is a performance that exceeds expectations lucky?

[PerreaultForever]

This is a big test and maybe tells us if we will be able to compete in the second half when the games get tougher and more physical. Washington is a tough strong team with skill added and generally has the better of teams that don't bring the same level of physicality. I am interested to see if this team can rise to the challenge, if the Caps bring their tough A game. 

Alternatively, we could also prevail if the power play rises back up to dominance. 

They've had time to sort out issues, practice, regroup, this game should be a window on the near future. 

[Brawndo]

Ullmark in net

Gilmour in, Montour not ready yet 

Edited November 1, 2019 by Brawndo

[Derrico]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Plenty did exactly that, league wide. The form the conversation took was not analytics, but there was still plenty of "can this hold up?" going on. The narrative was often "over-matched roster bailed out by Hall of Fame goalie" (even if that often wasn't the case, as Sabres fans who followed closely would know)

It was seen as a pretty big surprise we made it as far as we did, the perception outside (ask any Leafs media) was that we were lucky to beat them, that Hasek was carrying them all year, and folks were waiting for the bubble to burst. It wasn't a "This team is in the final, this must be a great team top to bottom, you are your record, only wins matter" type deal. 

There's also a line where perceived sustainability just won't matter anymore to many. Sure Hasek was standing on his head, but considering who Hasek was, expecting the sublime from him seemed logical. It was easy to enjoy the hell out of it. 

The bolded is correct and that is why it was sooooooooooooo sweet we stole (if memory serves) not one but two straight playoff games against the leafs with Dwayne Roloson in net while Dom was hurt.

Just now, Brawndo said:

Ullmark in net

Gilmour in over Montour 

*****

[Thorner]

2 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Ullmark in net

Gilmour in, Montour not ready yet 

Given the Sabres track record with detailing injury time frames, wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't play this weekend. 

[R_Dudley]

Class!  

Test begins in 1 hour and 9 minutes.

Sharpen your edges 

Tape dem sticks.

Checking In for da game.... 

[JohninMinn.]

Caps underestimate 50 year anniversary