GDT: 10/24/19 Sabres @ Rangers, 7pm ET, MSG and WGR550

[Taro T]

Haven't watched the Rags this year yet, but last year they weren't particularly tenacious.  They've added Panarin and Kakko, but don't know that they've done much to improve the back check.  [Edit: forgot they added Trouba too, so will revamp that to not enough to significantly improve in their own end.]

If that's still the case, this should be a game the Sabres get a bit of space and win going away.  5-1 is the guess.  2PP goals and 3 ES.  That should help w/ those metrics, right?

And considering they're playing his old team, will guess that Vesey finally pots one.

I've bought in to the Krueger Kool-aid and fully expect him to have them ready for this game.

Edited October 24, 2019 by Taro T

[R_Dudley]

Stats going into tonight's game, should be able to improve on a couple of these :

Goals For: 4th 37 GF

Goals Against 9th 24 GA

Power Play % 4th 30.8 PP%

Penalty Kill % 20th 76.7 PK%

Penalty Mins 17th 82 PIM

[Hank]

Tonight's game will be on ESPN+

[inkman]

This is the Jimmy Vesey revenge game!  

[Cityo'Rasmii]

Here's hoping Vesey boy keeps trending upward 

(Still can't quite believe he's on our roster and I'm doing my best to rally for him)

Go Sabres

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, inkman said:

This is the Jimmy Vesey revenge game!  

I'll believe when I see it. 

[North Buffalo]

Go Sabres!

[Beer]

Let’s burn these rags.  Go Sabres.  Stay hot!

[miles]

I was considering going to the game but the tickets are still very expensive for lower level. It would be a 200 dollar game with ticket cost, train and parking 

 

Anyway 4-2 Sabres 

[LabattBlue]

Buffalo 3

Rangers 1

The great early season start continues

 

Dahlin, Olafsson & Girgensons

[...]

I hope RK has put the team's collective mind right.  They better not walk in there thinking this game is already in the bag.  If NY is so bad, they should walk all over them for a full 60, nothing less. 

If, for nothing else, they need to put the brakes on the xGF% trending below average.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

This has all the trappings of a trap game.  We are in first and they are last, but they have a great goaltender.

@LabattBlue I think I agree with you.  3-1 Sabres, but Vesey burns his old team and scores his 1st goal.

[SDS]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

This has all the trappings of a trap game.  We are in first and they are last, but they have a great goaltender.

@LabattBlue I think I agree with you.  3-1 Sabres, but Vesey burns his old team and scores his 1st goal.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/22/debunking-the-trap-game-and-letdown-game-myths/amp/

[MattPie]

10 minutes ago, SDS said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/11/22/debunking-the-trap-game-and-letdown-game-myths/amp/

Interesting article. I don't doubt the conclusion, although I think the method is a little suspect. It calls any game where teams are on opposite sides of .500, which would include a bunch of evenly matched games. Since it's talking football, the example would be a 6-5 team vs. a 5-6 team. This doesn't strike me as a trap. It'd be interesting to re-run the numbers using (say) <.400 teams vs >.600 teams for true mismatches.

Additionally, using football with limited numbers of games doesn't seem ideal. Not for statistic issues, but that it seems less likely that the Pats will flub a game against the Dophins since there are only 16 vs. the Sabres flubbing the Rangers tonight in game 12 of 82.

[dudacek]

3 hours ago, WildCard said:

Thanks, I really like this addition to these, helps for me to put them in comparison. I'm surprised our CF% is that low though, I thought we've been outshooting teams almost every game

That being said we should dominate this game tonight. Expecting Ullmark in net for this one

 

Did you hear the Krueger quote the other day to the effect of “we’re not one of those teams that wants to take a lot of low-percentage shots.”

Which speaks to the flaw everyone forgets about in Corsi: it rewards the teams that blast the puck into crowds from anywhere, as opposed to the teams that are doing more important things, like creating actual scoring chances.

”You can’t fully understand a player until you get behind the bench in a game because until then you don’t know exactly what they are being asked to do.” Rakru (paraphrased)

 

2 hours ago, SabresBaltimore said:

The Rangers are doing terrible, but I feel like this is our first big "trap game". A coworker said they were the team that ended the 10 game streak last season too.

 

I'm hoping to see another good road game. We should win this by a goal or two. I'll say 3-1.

 

It was actually Tampa who busted the streak. Go be smug with your co-worker.

Edited October 24, 2019 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Did you hear the Krueger quote the other day to the effect of “we’re not one of those teams that wants to take a lot of low-percentage shots.”

Which speaks to the flaw everyone forgets about in Corsi: it rewards the teams that blast the puck into crowds from anywhere, as opposed to the teams that are doing more important things, like creating actual scoring chances.

”You can’t fully understand a player until you get behind the bench in a game because until then you don’t know exactly what they are being asked to do.” Rakru (paraphrased)

 

 

It was actually Tampa who busted the streak. Go be smug with your co-worker.

Very true. I have started to look at xGF more than corsi of late. It still has it's limits but when your pp is 10% better and your xGF is 1.3 better at 5v5 as in this game, you should win. 

[WildCard]

25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Did you hear the Krueger quote the other day to the effect of “we’re not one of those teams that wants to take a lot of low-percentage shots.”

Which speaks to the flaw everyone forgets about in Corsi: it rewards the teams that blast the puck into crowds from anywhere, as opposed to the teams that are doing more important things, like creating actual scoring chances.

”You can’t fully understand a player until you get behind the bench in a game because until then you don’t know exactly what they are being asked to do.” Rakru (paraphrased)

It was actually Tampa who busted the streak. Go be smug with your co-worker.

That is a flaw but it's not a forgotten one, that's why the heat maps are much more appreciated.

And yup, I was at that game in Tampa last year

 

Edited October 24, 2019 by WildCard

[pi2000]

==============================================================
NYR even strength goal differential through 7 games = -5
NYR average even strength goal differential per game = -0.71
exp+/- is a function of gp, %min played, and team ES goal diff
TRpm(team relative +/-) is the diff btwn actual+/- and exp+/-
==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP    +/-  exp+/-  %min
NYR Mika Zibanejad             2.93     7     1   -1.93   38.6
NYR Pavel Buchnevich           2.44     7     1   -1.44   28.8
NYR Libor Hajek                2.29     7     1   -1.29   25.8
NYR Jacob Trouba               2.06     7     0   -2.06   41.2
NYR Brady Skjei                1.62     7     0   -1.62   32.4
NYR Ryan Strome                1.35     7     0   -1.35   27.1
NYR Adam Fox                   1.34     7     0   -1.34   26.8
NYR Brendan Lemieux            0.87     6     0   -0.87   20.3
NYR Marc Staal                 0.59     7    -1   -1.59   31.8
NYR Jesper Fast                0.30     7    -1   -1.30   26.1
NYR Brendan Smith             -0.01     7    -1   -0.99   19.8
NYR Lias Andersson            -0.19     7    -1   -0.81   16.2
NYR Artemi Panarin            -0.25     7    -2   -1.75   35.1
NYR Chris Kreider             -0.59     7    -2   -1.41   28.2
NYR Brett Howden              -0.74     7    -2   -1.26   25.3
NYR Greg McKegg               -0.74     3    -1   -0.26   12.2
NYR Micheal Haley             -0.76     3    -1   -0.24   11.0
NYR Vladislav Namestnikov     -1.68     2    -2   -0.32   22.5
NYR Anthony DeAngelo          -4.57     7    -6   -1.43   28.7
NYR Kaapo Kakko               -4.79     7    -6   -1.21   24.3
==============================================================

 

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

Haven't watched the Rags this year yet, but last year they weren't particularly tenacious.  They've added Panarin and Kakko, but don't know that they've done much to improve the back check.  [Edit: forgot they added Trouba too, so will revamp that to not enough to significantly improve in their own end.]

If that's still the case, this should be a game the Sabres get a bit of space and win going away.  5-1 is the guess.  2PP goals and 3 ES.  That should help w/ those metrics, right?

And considering they're playing his old team, will guess that Vesey finally pots one.

I've bought in to the Krueger Kool-aid and fully expect him to have them ready for this game.

Kool-Aid is drunk, sir, not bought into.

[...]

...cue the complaints about fancy stats. In 3...2...1...

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

22 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Kool-Aid is drunk, sir, not bought into.

But you can buy stock in it.

[Doohicksie]

33 minutes ago, ... said:

...cue the complaints about fancy stats. In 3...2...1...

I'm one of the biggest complainers, but this is a good discussion.  Because people are talking about why different stats are good or bad, I can understand the underlying context and drivers behind them.  My complaint is someone who puts up a fancystat in reply to someone else's point and posts something like:  "XYXrN = 567.3.  QED."  That's what gets me complaining because it simply doesn't mean anything to me.

Edited October 24, 2019 by Doohickie

[R_Dudley]

48 minutes ago, ... said:

...cue the complaints about fancy stats. In 3...2...1...

If we are complaining about each others posts and not the Sabre's play,  that's a stat I will get behind. 

BTW, Your post blows snot... ? 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

23 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

But you can buy stock in it.

 

12 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I'm one of the biggest complainers, but this is a good discussion.  Because people are talking about why different stats are good or bad, I can understand the underlying context and drivers behind them.  My complaint is someone who puts up a fancystat in reply to someone else's point and posts something like:  "XYXrN = 567.3.  QED."  That's what gets me complaining because it simply doesn't mean anything to me.

I'm so sorry,

Kool-Aid is a name brand owned by the Kraft Heinz Co. Contact your investment group for info on how to purchase stock in the company and for current info on pricing. The product has been around for many years and comes in several flavors in liquid and powder forms. 

Hope this helps you understand better.

[CallawaySabres]

Rangers, Wings and Yotes up next? Let's rack up 6 more points before the tough stretch kicks in....November is going to be brutal and I would be happy to go 500 for the month