LGR4GM Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 (edited) We play the New York Rangers tonight. The Rangers are bad. They have an expected goals for at 5v5 of 1.8 compared to Buffalo's 3.1. Further our PP is 10% better than theirs and Rangers seem to top out at 2 goals a game. These are trap games for top teams but games if we truly are a top team we should win. Records Rangers: 2-4-1 Sabres: 8-1-1 Fancy stats: Rangers: 2.71 goals for, 1.8 xGF, 0.913sv%, 44.4cf% @5v5, 20.83pp%, 77.42pk% Sabres: 3.70 goals for, 3.1 xGF, 0.929sv%, 47.5cf% @5v5, 30.77pp%, 76.67pk% Edited October 24, 2019 by LGR4GM Quote
WildCard Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said: We play the New York Rangers tonight. The Rangers are bad. They have an expected goals for at 5v5 of 1.8 compared to Buffalo's 3.1. Further our PP is 10% better than theirs and Rangers seem to top out at 2 goals a game. These are trap games for top teams but games if we truly are a top team we should win. Records Rangers: 2-4-1 Sabres: 8-1-1 Fancy stats: Rangers: 2.71 goals for, 1.8 xGF, 0.913sv%, 44.4cf% @5v5, 20.83pp%, 77.42pk% Sabres: 3.70 goals for, 3.1 xGF, 0.929sv%, 47.5cf% @5v5, 30.77pp%, 76.67pk% Thanks, I really like this addition to these, helps for me to put them in comparison. I'm surprised our CF% is that low though, I thought we've been outshooting teams almost every game That being said we should dominate this game tonight. Expecting Ullmark in net for this one Quote
LGR4GM Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Posted October 24, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, WildCard said: Thanks, I really like this addition to these, helps for me to put them in comparison. I'm surprised our CF% is that low though, I thought we've been outshooting teams almost every game That being said we should dominate this game tonight. Expecting Ullmark in net for this one Keep in mind that is at 5v5 specifically. While I would like to see it edge higher, I suspect that due to our team holding leads and being shelled late in games, our 5v5 corsi is down slightly. Side note hockeyreference where I pulled the xGF stats from just lost its mind. So I might need to update those numbers. Evolving wild actually figured out that the NHL shot tracking computer was calibrated incorrectly so I wonder if this is the retroactive update to fix shot locations. Edited October 24, 2019 by LGR4GM Quote
#freejame Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, WildCard said: Thanks, I really like this addition to these, helps for me to put them in comparison. I'm surprised our CF% is that low though, I thought we've been outshooting teams almost every game That being said we should dominate this game tonight. Expecting Ullmark in net for this one The athletic compared these ten games to last year’s streak with some fancy stats yesterday. One of them was CF% by situation. We have plus CF% when tied and trailing and are below 50% when winning. 3 Quote
LGR4GM Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Posted October 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, #freejame said: The athletic compared these ten games to last year’s streak with some fancy stats yesterday. One of them was CF% by situation. We have plus CF% when tied and trailing and are below 50% when winning. Thanks I missed this. Reading it now... Quote
WildCard Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 1 minute ago, #freejame said: The athletic compared these ten games to last year’s streak with some fancy stats yesterday. One of them was CF% by situation. We have plus CF% when tied and trailing and are below 50% when winning. Ah that explains it then, Liger was right. I wish sites like hockey reference showed those stats Quote
SabresBaltimore Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 The Rangers are doing terrible, but I feel like this is our first big "trap game". A coworker said they were the team that ended the 10 game streak last season too. I'm hoping to see another good road game. We should win this by a goal or two. I'll say 3-1. Quote
WildCard Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 @LGR4GM Those charts show we're still not there on offense. I'm gonna guess that's Oloffsson and Sobotka for 5v5 Quote
LGR4GM Posted October 24, 2019 Author Report Posted October 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, WildCard said: @LGR4GM Those charts show we're still not there on offense. I'm gonna guess that's Oloffsson and Sobotka for 5v5 Probably that and our defensive shell. The Lindy Ruff Alamo Mode or LRAM for short. Quote
darksabre Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 I think that passes the eye test. We're defending better and playing a better team game, but the offense at 5v5 still leaves something to be desired. 1 Quote
Mustache of God Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 (edited) 1 minute ago, WildCard said: @LGR4GM Those charts show we're still not there on offense. I'm gonna guess that's Oloffsson and Sobotka for 5v5 So you're saying put Sobotka on the top line? Edited October 24, 2019 by Mustache of God 1 Quote
That Aud Smell Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 Let's go, Buffalo! The Rangers are, low-key, a team I get extra amped for. An original-6 thing, no doubt. Also: Sometimes Tierney's charts confuse me. I don't comprehend (all of) the team stats heat map. Quote
darksabre Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 I hate the Rangers because I still have bad memories of Jagr doing bad things to us when he was with them. Quote
That Aud Smell Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 Is the heat map as simple as blue=good; red=bad? Quote
WildCard Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, darksabre said: I hate the Rangers because I still have bad memories of Jagr doing bad things to us when he was with them. I hate the Rangers because I hate watching games in MSG on tv Just now, That Aud Smell said: Is the heat map as simple as blue=good; red=bad? And don't talk to strangers little Smell Quote
That Aud Smell Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, WildCard said: And don't talk to strangers little Smell Ha! No. But seriously. Please clear it up for me. Quote
WildCard Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 1 minute ago, That Aud Smell said: Ha! No. But seriously. Please clear it up for me. The darker the blue the better you are. The darker the red, the worse 1 Quote
Mustache of God Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 (edited) I'll be there tonight in section 103 where the sabres shoot twice. Rocking my new golden jersey. Would love to see oloffsson blast one in real life. Edited October 24, 2019 by Mustache of God 3 Quote
R_Dudley Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 Another hockey night for Buffalo. Not ready to call them road warriors yet but they are playing solid on the road just 1 game better at home. I would love a Sabres score fest road game so i can razz the Sh!t out of my Rangers fan B-in-law. This is the team that can do it. Please make it so Lets go Buff-a-lo ! Quote
#freejame Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 Category 2018 2019 Shot attempts -59 (29th) -23 (24th) SAT Tied -18 (25th) 5 (14th) SAT Close -39 (28th) 28 (7th) SAT Ahead -44 (29th) -23 (25th 1 Quote
SabresBaltimore Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, WildCard said: I hate the Rangers because I hate watching games in MSG on tv For me I hate it because my hockey package seems to think MSG and MSG-B are the same channel so they shouldn't bother with whoever is the away team. So I'll be stuck listening to the Rags commentators tonight. Quote
LTS Posted October 24, 2019 Report Posted October 24, 2019 Not much to add... Except, just win baby! Quote
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